2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

Last updated

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of Virginia.svg
←  2017 November 2, 2021 [1] 2025  →
Turnout54.9% Increase2.svg 7.7 [2]
  Glenn Youngkin Headshot (cropped 2).jpg Terry McAuliffe 2020 (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Glenn Youngkin Terry McAuliffe
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,663,1581,599,470
Percentage 50.6% 48.6%
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
VA Governor 2021.svg
Youngkin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McAuliffe:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
     No data
Governor before election

Ralph Northam
Democratic

Elected Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia state offices. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms. Businessman Glenn Youngkin won the Republican nomination at the party's May 8 convention, which was held in 37 polling locations across the state, [3] and was officially declared the nominee on May 10. [4] The Democratic Party held its primary election on June 8, [5] which former Governor Terry McAuliffe easily won. [6]

Contents

In the general election, Youngkin defeated McAuliffe by nearly 64,000 votes in what was considered an upset because McAuliffe led over Youngkin in the polls until right before election day. [7] Youngkin was the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009. The economy, education, public health, and cultural issues were centerpieces of Youngkin's campaign. [8] [9] [10] Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within state schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 restrictions including vaccination mandates and mask mandates, and advocate for small government within the state of Virginia. [11] [12] [13]

Democrats tried to portray Youngkin as a political ally of Donald Trump, who is politically unpopular in Virginia,[ citation needed ] and Trump did indeed express support for Youngkin. Walking a fine line between welcoming the endorsement and demonstrating independence, Youngkin was able to successfully appeal to both Republicans and independents. [14] Political analysts believe that the main reason for the Democratic Party's defeat in Virginia was that voters were not satisfied with the performance of President Joe Biden, with whom McAuliffe allied himself. [15] Youngkin successfully campaigned on dissatisfaction with current economic and educational policies from voters, particularly centrists, to win more votes than in the past in several key suburban counties to fuel his election.[ citation needed ]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Jennifer Carroll Foy
Federal officials
State delegates
Local official
Organizations
Labor unions
Individuals
Lee J. Carter
Individual
Justin Fairfax
Foreign politician
Terry McAuliffe
Governor
U.S. Representative
State delegates
State senators
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers
Individuals
Organizations
Jennifer McClellan
State delegates

[56]

State senators
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Debates

Democratic Primary Debates
DateVenueVideoTerry McAuliffeJennifer Carroll FoyJennifer McClellanJustin FairfaxLee J. Carter
April 6, 2021 Virginia State University YouTube ParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipant

McClellan opened the debate calling for a “nominee who will excite and expand our base. I’ve spent 31 years building this party and electing Democrats at the local, state and national level. It’s not enough to give someone something to vote against. We’ve got to give people something to vote for,” McClellan said. Foy said in her opening statement that she is presenting bold ideas that past politicians have failed to bring to Virginia. The pointed remark came before she went after the record of McAuliffe, the first criticism of the night directed at the presumptive frontrunner. [65] Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate. [66] McAuliffe mainly avoided directly responding to the attacks, focusing instead on his record as governor, the support he's received during his campaign and, stopping Glenn Youngkin in November's general election. Later in the debate, Carter called McAuliffe out for mentioning Youngkin and Trump so often. “The debate that we’re supposed to be having on this stage is a debate about the future of this commonwealth,” he said. “It’s about what we stand for and what we’re going to fight for. And this is the first opportunity for the Democratic Party to define what it is going to be after Donald Trump is gone. And he is gone. So, we can’t just be a party that is opposed to the other guys. We have to fight for something.” Carter, a self-described socialist, reiterated his proposal to use tax revenue from the marijuana industry to fund reparations. [65]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jennifer
Carroll Foy		Lee
Carter		Justin
Fairfax		Terry
McAuliffe		Jennifer
McClellan		OtherUndecided
Roanoke College May 24 – June 1, 2021637 (LV)± 3.9%11%1%5%49%9%0%24%
Christopher Newport University April 11–20, 2021806 (LV)± 3.9%5%1%8%47%6%2%31%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 12–13, 2021526 (LV)± 4.3%8%4%7%42%8%–29%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021488 (RV)± 4.9%4%1%12%26%4%0%54%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021235 (RV)± 7.4%7%6%6%43%8%0%30%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 1] January 12–20, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%7%–14%42%6%–30%
Expedition Strategies (D) [upper-alpha 2] December 2020– (LV)–5%–16%32%8%–38%

Results

Results by county and independent city: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McAuliffe 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county, 2021.svg
Results by county and independent city:
  McAuliffe
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results [67]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 307,367 62.10%
Democratic Jennifer Carroll Foy 98,05219.81%
Democratic Jennifer McClellan 58,21311.76%
Democratic Justin Fairfax 17,6063.56%
Democratic Lee J. Carter 13,6942.77%
Total votes494,932 100.00%

Republican convention

The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia. [68] [69] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 39 to 35. [70] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent, [71] but she later decided to seek nomination at the convention; on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this. [72] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention. [73] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam. [74] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021. [75] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot. [76] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method. [68]

On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg. [77] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum. [77] [78]

The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021, [69] [68] in "unassembled" format, [68] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide [69] using ranked-choice voting. [68] The complex process fueled internal party disputes. [79] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes. [68] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site. [79] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated. [68]

Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules. [80] However, the Virginia GOP ultimately reversed course and allowed those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews. [81]

Cox received crucial endorsements of Bob McDonnell and George Allen, the former of which was the last statewide elected Republican (alongside Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli) in Virginia prior to 2022. He was regarded by some as the establishment favorite heading into the convention. [82] Nonetheless, he finished fourth on the first voting round behind Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, and Amanda Chase. Youngkin was nominated on the sixth round of voting.

Candidates

Nominated at convention

Eliminated at convention

Did not qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase
Executive branch officials
Kirk Cox
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State delegates
State senators
Individuals
Pete Snyder
Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Representatives
State delegate
State senator
Individuals
Glenn Youngkin
U.S. Senator
Governor
State senator
State delegate

Polling

Graphical summary

Without convention polling

Primary polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Amanda
Chase		Kirk
Cox		Sergio
de la Peña		Peter
Doran		Octavia
Johnson		Pete
Snyder		Glenn
Youngkin		OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) May 5–6, 2021605 (LV)± 4.4%29%7%2%0%1%13%25%–25%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] April 2021695 (LV)± 3.7%22%7%3%1%0%16%21%–30%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021370 (RV)± 5.6%17%10%––––3%–55%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021170 (RV)± 8.6%24%7%1%––13%5%0%54%

Convention polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Amanda
Chase		Kirk
Cox		Pete
Snyder		Glenn
Youngkin		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [upper-alpha 4] April 29 – May 3, 20213,896 (LV)± 1.6%10%10%26%38%13%3%
Final results by county and independent city: Youngkin 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Tie 50% Snyder 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 90-100% Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary final round results by county, 2021.svg
Final results by county and independent city:
  Youngkin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Tie
  •   50%
  Snyder
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   90–100%

Results

Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election Virginia 2021 GOP Gubernatorial Election RCV Results.gif
Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee [113]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  %
Glenn Youngkin 4131.80 32.9% 4140.55 33.0% 4148.91 33.0% 4331.93 34.5% 5311.43 42.3% 6869.22 54.7%
Pete Snyder 3241.61 25.8% 3243.84 25.8% 3249.71 25.9% 3502.91 27.9% 4078.25 32.5% 5684.78 45.3%
Amanda Chase 2605.89 20.8% 2611.54 20.8% 2619.83 20.9% 2859.39 22.8% 3164.32 25.2% Eliminated
Kirk Cox 1693.58 13.5% 1698.13 13.5% 1705.90 13.6% 1859.77 14.8% Eliminated
Sergio de la Peña 805.35 6.4% 812.44 6.5% 829.65 6.6% Eliminated
Peter Doran 42.28 0.3% 47.50 0.4% Eliminated
Octavia Johnson33.48 0.3% Eliminated

Other parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

Did not qualify

Declined

General election

On August 26, the Republican Party of Virginia filed a lawsuit to disqualify McAuliffe from appearing on the ballot in November. The suit alleges that McAuliffe did not sign his declaration of candidacy, which is needed to qualify in the primary and general election. [124] It was found that the declaration of candidacy was missing his signature, although it includes two witnesses' signatures. The suit also alleges the witnesses violated state law by witnessing a signing that didn't occur. [125]

Debates

Canceled debates

On July 12, Glenn Youngkin announced he would not take part in the July 24 debate hosted by the Virginia Bar Association because of a donation made by one of the moderators, Judy Woodruff. [126] [127] Woodruff had made a $250 donation to the Clinton Foundation relief fund after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The foundation had been run by Hillary and Bill Clinton, who are close allies to Terry McAuliffe. [126] On July 28, after discovering that Youngkin would participate in an 'election integrity' rally at Liberty University, McAuliffe declined a debate at the same university. [128] On August 2, Youngkin declined participation in The People's Debate. [129] The two candidates pledged to two debates; one on September 16 and one on September 28. [130]

First debate

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, Virginia on September 16, 2021, one day before early voting began. [131] The debate was hosted by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page. [132]

The debate started with discussion over a recent COVID-19 mandate President Joe Biden signed requiring federal workers, employees of large companies, and contractors to be vaccinated. [133] [134] Youngkin doubted if Biden had the power to authorize the mandate, and supported personal choice for receiving the vaccine. McAuliffe supported the mandate and accused Youngkin of spreading "anti-vax" rhetoric. [134] Youngkin denied the claim. McAuliffe also supported requiring vaccines for students over the age of 12. [135] McAuliffe has also repeatedly made false statements about COVID-19, often inflating the number of cases. [136]

The discussion moved to climate change, where Youngkin stated he would use all sources of energy to address climate change without "putting [the] entire energy grid at risk for political purposes." McAuliffe called for clean energy in the state by 2035 and stressed the idea for the state to be a production hub. [130]

The discussion then moved to abortion, specifically the recent Texas Heartbeat Act signed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott (who endorsed Youngkin). [137] When asked whether or not Youngkin would sign a similar bill, Youngkin stated that he would not sign the bill, and that he was anti-abortion and supports exclusions in cases such as rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is endangered. He also stated he supports a "pain-threshold" bill that would ban most abortions at the point when a fetus can feel pain, which proponents of this type of law define as 20 weeks. [130] In addition, Youngkin stated McAuliffe was "the most extreme pro-abortion candidate in America today". [137] In response to Youngkin, McAuliffe stated he was a "brick wall" on women's rights and would protect a woman's decision over abortion and supports reducing the number of doctors needed to certify a third-trimester abortion from three to one. [137]

The next discussion topic was over election integrity. After supporting an "Election Integrity Taskforce", Youngkin stated he does not believe there has been "significant fraud", and stated the issue of fraud as "a democracy issue". Youngkin stressed that he believes that "Joe Biden's our president" and criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan. McAuliffe took note of Donald Trump's endorsement of Youngkin, calling him a "Trump wannabe". [134] Both candidates stated they would concede the election if the other came out on top. [137]

The final discussion topic was over the economy. McAuliffe attacked Youngkin on his top economic advisor, Stephen Moore, who advised Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Youngkin defended Virginia's right-to-work law. [137]

Second debate

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce on September 28, 2021. [138] The event was hosted by Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press . Less than a week before the debate, one of the panelists, Michael Fauntroy, withdrew from the debate after tweets against the GOP and Evangelicals were found. [139]

On the discussion topic of COVID-19, Youngkin and McAuliffe reiterated their stances on the vaccines. Youngkin stated he believed in mandates for vaccines for diseases measles, mumps and rubella, but not for COVID-19, saying that "the data associated with those vaccines is something that we should absolutely understand the difference between this vaccine." [140] Youngkin said people should get vaccinated against COVID-19. [140]

During the debate, Youngkin noted that Trump was regularly mentioned by McAuliffe, who again called Youngkin a "Trump wannabe." [140] [141] When asked, Youngkin stated he would support Trump if he were to become the Republican nominee in 2024. [141]

Approximately 15 minutes into the debate, third party candidate Princess Blanding, who was in the audience, disrupted the debate, screaming that her exclusion from the debate was "unfair" and claiming that McAuliffe would not win the election. [142] After being escorted out by security, she claimed that being excluded from the debate was racist and sexist, and that it constituted "censorship". [143]

Youngkin asserted that McAuliffe had vetoed legislation that would have required schools to inform parents about sexually explicit content in educational materials. [144] [145] McAuliffe defended his veto, saying: "'I'm not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decision... I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach'". [146] [147] [145] McAuliffe received criticism for these remarks, [148] [149] and Youngkin used his comments to create an attack ad. [150] [151] Following the election, Newsweek described McAuliffe's remarks as "a major factor in the race". [152]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [153] TossupOctober 5, 2021
Inside Elections [154] TossupNovember 1, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball [155] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2021

Endorsements

Terry McAuliffe (D)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Glenn Youngkin (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		Glenn
Youngkin (R)		Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 20–31, 2021November 1, 202146.8%48.5%4.8%Youngkin +1.7%
FiveThirtyEight August 1 – November 1, 2021November 1, 202147.0%47.9%5.1%Youngkin +1.0%
Average46.9%48.2%5.0%Youngkin +1.4%
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		Glenn
Youngkin (R)		Princess
Blanding (Lib.)		OtherUndecided
Research Co. October 31 – November 1, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%2%–3%
Targoz Market Research October 26 – November 1, 2021747 (LV)± 3.6%50%47%––3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–31, 20211,081 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%–2%2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived April 17, 2022, at the Wayback Machine October 27–30, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%45%47%2%–6%
Echelon Insights Archived October 29, 2021, at the Wayback Machine October 27–29, 2021611 (LV)± 4.0%46%49%2%–4%
Roanoke College October 14–28, 2021571 (LV)± 4.7%48%47%1%0%4%
Fox News October 24–27, 20211,212 (RV)± 2.5%47%48%–2%3%
1,015 (LV)± 3.0%45%53%–1%1%
Washington Post/Schar School October 20–26, 20211,107 (RV)± 3.5%47%44%3%2% [lower-alpha 3] 3%
49%45%–3% [lower-alpha 4] 4%
918 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%1%0% [lower-alpha 5] 2%
49%48%–0% [lower-alpha 6] 2%
Christopher Newport University October 17–25, 2021944 (LV)± 3.5%49%48%1%–1%
Suffolk University October 21–24, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%46%45%2%–7%
Emerson College October 22–23, 2021875 (LV)± 3.2%48%48%1%–3%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 20–21, 2021785 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%5%–5%
Cygnal (R) October 19–21, 2021816 (LV)± 3.4%48%48%1%–3%
KAConsulting LLC (R) [upper-alpha 6] October 18–21, 2021661 (LV)± 3.8%41%43%–1%15%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 9–21, 2021722 (LV)± 6.4%41%38%–10%11%
Monmouth University October 16–19, 20211,005 (RV)± 3.1%46%46%–2%7%
1,005 (LV) [lower-alpha 7] 45%48%–––
1,005 (LV) [lower-alpha 8] 48%45%–––
Data for Progress (D) October 4–15, 20211,589 (LV)± 2.0%50%45%–2%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 11–13, 20211,095 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%–1%3%
Fox News October 10–13, 20211,004 (RV)± 3.0%52%41%–2%5%
726 (LV)± 3.5%51%46%–1%2%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D) October 9–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%–0%10%
YouGov/CBS News October 4–11, 20211,040 (LV)± 4.1%50%47%–2%0%
Christopher Newport University September 27 – October 6, 2021802 (LV)± 4.2%49%45%1%–5%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%49%48%–1%2%
Fox News September 26–29, 2021901 (RV)± 3.0%48%44%–1%7%
Roanoke College September 12–26, 2021603 (LV)± 4.6%48%41%1%1%9%
Monmouth University September 22–26, 2021801 (RV)± 3.5%48%43%–2%8%
801 (LV) [lower-alpha 7] 48%45%–––
801 (LV) [lower-alpha 8] 50%43%–––
Global Strategy Group (D) Archived March 16, 2022, at the Wayback Machine September 16–20, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%––7%
KAConsulting LLC (R) [upper-alpha 6] September 17–19, 2021700 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%–1%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 7] September 17–18, 2021875 (V)± 3.3%45%42%––13%
Virginia Commonwealth University September 7–15, 2021731 (LV)± 6.9%43%34%–10%13%
Emerson College September 13–14, 2021778 (LV)± 3.4%49%45%–2%5%
University of Mary Washington September 7–13, 20211,000 (A)± 3.1%43%38%2%6% [lower-alpha 9] 11%
885 (RV)± 3.3%46%41%2%––
528 (LV)± 4.1%43%48%2%2% [lower-alpha 10] 6%
Washington Post/Schar School September 7–13, 2021907 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%–3%4%
728 (LV)± 4.5%50%47%–1%2%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 8] August 30 – September 2, 2021734 (LV)± 3.6%46%48%3%–4%
48%48%––4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 26–29, 20211,074 (LV)± 3.0%47%46%–2%5%
Monmouth University August 24–29, 2021802 (RV)± 3.5%47%42%–2%9%
802 (LV) [lower-alpha 7] 47%45%–––
802 (LV) [lower-alpha 8] 49%42%–––
Christopher Newport University August 15–23, 2021800 (LV)± 3.6%50%41%3%–6%
Change Research (D) August 17–21, 20211,653 (LV)± 3.6%49%43%3%–5%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 9] August 14–18, 20211,334 (LV)± 2.7%47%44%––9%
Roanoke College August 3–17, 2021558 (LV)± 4.2%46%38%2%1%13%
Virginia Commonwealth University August 4–15, 2021770 (RV)± 5.4%40%37%–15%9%
~747 (LV)± 5.5%40%37%–14%9%
co/efficient (R) August 8–9, 20211,200 (LV)± 2.8%47%45%––8%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 8] August 3–5, 2021734 (LV)± 3.6%50%43%3%–4%
51%45%––4%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 10] July 25–27, 2021762 (LV)± 3.5%45%40%2%–13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 8–10, 20211,104 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%–4%4%
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 11] July 6–9, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%–2%10%
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) June 9–12, 2021550 (LV)± 4.2%46%42%––12%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 8] June 2–6, 2021506 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%––5%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports
CandidateAmount spentVotesCost per vote
Glenn Youngkin$64,487,8291,663,158$38.77
Terry McAuliffe$68,777,6331,599,470$43.00
Princess Blanding$32,59523,107$1.41
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [241]

Results

Election turnout by county: 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election turnout map by county.svg
Election turnout by county:
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election [242]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Glenn Youngkin 1,663,158 50.58% +5.61%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,599,47048.64%-5.26%
LiberationPrincess Blanding23,1250.70%+0.70%
Write-in 2,5920.08%+0.03%
Total votes3,288,327 100% N/A
Turnout 3,296,70555.39%
Registered electors 5,951,368
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county and city

Independent cities have been italicized.

County or
city		YoungkinMcAuliffeBlandingOthersTurnout
VotesPercentVotesPercentVotesPercentVotesPercent
Accomack 7,87861.08%4,94838.37%670.52%40.03%52.27%
Albemarle 19,14137.21%31,91962.05%3470.67%360.07%62.94%
Alexandria 14,01324.02%43,86675.20%3850.66%660.11%54.35%
Alleghany 4,53074.52%1,51824.97%260.43%50.08%55.18%
Amelia 4,72074.19%1,61725.42%230.36%20.03%64.17%
Amherst 9,73171.00%3,89728.43%720.53%60.04%61.34%
Appomattox 5,97180.26%1,43819.33%260.35%50.07%62.61%
Arlington 21,54822.63%73,01376.67%5540.58%1160.12%56.13%
Augusta 26,19677.93%7,23121.51%1700.51%160.05%62.72%
Bath 1,53979.04%39620.34%110.56%10.05%59.25%
Bedford 30,91279.10%8,00120.47%1450.37%210.05%63.60%
Bland 2,27485.78%36413.73%120.45%10.04%58.91%
Botetourt 13,06676.30%3,99023.30%610.36%80.05%66.32%
Bristol 3,77373.30%1,34226.07%300.58%20.04%43.60%
Brunswick 2,88047.34%3,16552.02%340.56%50.08%55.60%
Buchanan 5,08384.72%90315.05%80.13%60.10%40.17%
Buckingham 3,89463.29%2,22236.11%350.57%20.03%56.78%
Buena Vista 1,45974.33%48124.50%221.12%10.05%45.53%
Campbell 18,21378.39%4,93021.22%770.33%150.06%57.88%
Caroline 6,91757.35%5,04541.83%910.75%80.07%54.33%
Carroll 9,86883.45%1,91016.15%430.36%40.03%57.19%
Charles City 1,55045.76%1,82253.79%150.44%00.00%59.93%
Charlotte 3,35470.26%1,39629.24%210.44%30.06%57.26%
Charlottesville 2,77415.99%14,37882.88%1731.00%220.13%51.71%
Chesapeake 48,07952.43%42,90746.79%6540.71%590.06%53.53%
Chesterfield 80,88951.76%74,08547.41%1,1940.76%1090.07%59.81%
Clarke 4,64262.54%2,73936.90%340.46%70.09%63.36%
Colonial Heights 4,91373.27%1,72925.79%530.79%100.15%52.84%
Covington 1,19866.82%57932.29%160.89%00.00%47.36%
Craig 2,07983.16%40016.00%170.68%40.16%63.12%
Culpeper 13,43666.47%6,66132.95%1070.53%100.05%56.89%
Cumberland 2,67863.38%1,51535.86%270.64%50.12%58.50%
Danville 5,90745.92%6,87253.42%800.62%50.04%45.27%
Dickenson 3,86780.31%93419.40%110.23%30.06%47.46%
Dinwiddie 7,33563.33%4,18136.10%590.51%70.06%56.92%
Emporia 72339.47%1,08759.33%201.09%20.11%46.75%
Essex 2,68457.00%1,98042.05%390.83%60.13%58.61%
Fairfax County 152,11034.47%286,31664.89%2,3480.53%4920.11%56.98%
Fairfax 3,60635.56%6,46563.74%590.58%120.12%59.03%
Falls Church 1,59022.63%5,38876.69%420.60%60.09%64.83%
Fauquier 22,25265.46%11,57034.04%1560.46%140.04%62.13%
Floyd 5,23069.75%2,20329.38%590.79%60.08%64.55%
Fluvanna 7,06856.75%5,31242.65%650.52%90.07%61.40%
Franklin County 17,84274.82%5,89424.71%1020.43%100.04%61.06%
Franklin 1,27042.83%1,68056.66%140.47%10.03%51.41%
Frederick 25,06268.90%11,16430.69%1300.36%190.05%55.88%
Fredericksburg 3,50338.77%5,40259.79%1131.25%170.19%48.96%
Galax 1,42473.94%49225.55%90.47%10.05%48.98%
Giles 5,78878.33%1,53520.77%610.83%50.07%61.83%
Gloucester 12,58572.37%4,71227.09%880.51%60.03%59.40%
Goochland 9,58565.87%4,91033.74%520.36%50.03%71.07%
Grayson 5,14482.48%1,06217.03%270.43%40.06%58.20%
Greene 5,96167.42%2,80631.73%680.77%70.08%61.43%
Greensville 1,70946.98%1,91552.64%120.33%20.05%57.08%
Halifax 8,64163.90%4,80435.53%750.55%20.01%55.08%
Hampton 14,65132.48%29,97166.45%4491.00%330.07%45.75%
Hanover 39,95467.65%18,75331.75%3220.55%350.06%68.30%
Harrisonburg 4,38238.65%6,81260.09%1311.16%120.11%43.63%
Henrico 55,79640.24%81,40958.71%1,3420.97%1200.09%58.70%
Henry 12,90269.61%5,54729.93%740.40%130.07%51.52%
Highland 96974.37%32524.94%80.61%10.08%69.31%
Hopewell 3,09549.31%3,08549.16%871.39%90.14%40.95%
Isle of Wight 12,00064.26%6,56535.16%910.49%170.09%61.95%
James City 21,04852.50%18,83646.98%1860.46%210.05%64.70%
King and Queen 2,11264.77%1,13034.65%180.55%10.03%61.53%
King George 7,28668.09%3,31731.00%910.85%70.07%56.68%
King William 6,28673.33%2,24726.21%330.38%60.07%63.49%
Lancaster 3,44858.71%2,40640.97%160.27%30.05%64.96%
Lee 6,37287.60%88212.13%180.25%20.03%47.78%
Lexington 77537.30%1,28962.03%100.48%40.19%50.28%
Loudoun 71,46744.17%89,39055.25%8030.50%1340.08%57.31%
Louisa 11,64966.04%5,89633.43%870.49%70.04%62.60%
Lunenburg 3,01965.67%1,56734.09%110.24%00.00%57.41%
Lynchburg 13,66854.89%11,00044.17%1980.80%350.14%45.53%
Madison 4,72170.17%1,97329.33%290.43%50.07%66.37%
Manassas 5,05044.67%6,15554.44%870.77%140.12%49.09%
Manassas Park 1,37938.34%2,15859.99%461.28%140.39%41.45%
Martinsville 1,67642.48%2,22456.38%401.01%50.13%44.61%
Mathews 3,49371.56%1,36327.92%180.37%70.14%67.70%
Mecklenburg 7,92265.81%4,07533.85%370.31%30.02%53.54%
Middlesex 3,70365.97%1,86033.14%470.84%30.05%65.24%
Montgomery 17,04151.96%15,35546.82%3771.15%220.07%53.82%
Nelson 4,25955.46%3,34643.57%640.83%110.14%65.23%
New Kent 8,56971.02%3,43928.50%520.43%60.05%66.93%
Newport News 21,24139.14%32,39959.69%5881.08%480.09%44.66%
Norfolk 18,88831.45%40,32467.14%7891.31%600.10%43.96%
Northampton 2,65050.34%2,58449.09%270.51%30.06%55.11%
Northumberland 4,16763.95%2,31235.48%370.57%00.00%64.79%
Norton 86671.99%32026.60%131.08%40.33%47.70%
Nottoway 3,49764.57%1,89234.93%240.44%30.06%56.89%
Orange 10,67066.23%5,35133.22%800.50%90.06%59.09%
Page 7,59478.92%1,99520.73%280.29%50.05%57.41%
Patrick 5,94682.14%1,25517.34%320.44%60.08%57.37%
Petersburg 1,20713.50%7,59184.87%1411.58%50.06%38.61%
Pittsylvania 19,54375.31%6,31924.35%760.29%120.05%58.02%
Poquoson 4,89777.75%1,36421.66%320.51%50.08%66.33%
Portsmouth 9,94633.34%19,51365.41%3551.19%190.06%44.73%
Powhatan 12,58276.86%3,72122.73%580.35%100.06%69.69%
Prince Edward 3,87654.40%3,21045.05%360.51%30.04%53.63%
Prince George 8,54864.65%4,57734.62%840.64%130.10%54.60%
Prince William 64,65842.20%87,35257.01%1,1110.73%970.06%50.22%
Pulaski 9,63174.06%3,27725.20%880.68%90.07%55.72%
Radford 2,26654.03%1,87944.80%441.05%50.12%44.70%
Rappahannock 2,50759.45%1,68639.98%190.45%50.12%68.59%
Richmond County 2,22569.90%93629.41%200.63%20.06%56.80%
Richmond 15,71319.61%61,92977.27%2,4093.01%910.11%51.03%
Roanoke County 28,15765.70%14,44533.70%2200.51%370.09%59.61%
Roanoke 12,02441.25%16,81757.70%2720.93%340.12%45.28%
Rockbridge 6,90668.89%3,07130.64%400.40%70.07%63.52%
Rockingham 26,76575.31%8,56924.11%1820.51%230.06%64.32%
Russell 8,22984.83%1,45214.97%170.18%30.03%51.16%
Salem 6,14464.29%3,34434.99%600.63%80.08%54.34%
Scott 7,06586.89%1,03412.72%280.34%40.05%51.83%
Shenandoah 13,69374.64%4,53524.72%1070.58%110.06%58.26%
Smyth 8,47782.55%1,75117.05%350.34%60.06%51.88%
Southampton 5,08464.90%2,71734.68%290.37%40.05%60.69%
Spotsylvania 32,47859.84%21,42639.47%3460.64%290.05%53.76%
Stafford 31,68055.00%25,46344.20%4250.74%350.06%54.13%
Staunton 4,64047.49%5,00451.21%1191.22%80.08%55.60%
Suffolk 17,35147.26%19,07951.96%2520.69%340.09%53.79%
Surry 1,76850.00%1,75649.66%90.25%30.08%63.39%
Sussex 1,97349.02%2,02850.39%240.60%00.00%57.08%
Tazewell 12,04586.59%1,82113.09%400.29%40.03%50.34%
Virginia Beach 86,97353.62%73,96545.60%1,1600.72%990.06%50.63%
Warren 11,29471.85%4,32827.53%890.57%80.05%53.64%
Washington 17,39579.08%4,50520.48%780.35%180.08%57.11%
Waynesboro 4,47356.94%3,27541.69%991.26%90.11%53.02%
Westmoreland 4,61460.55%2,97138.99%300.39%50.07%55.91%
Williamsburg 1,70334.54%3,18564.59%400.81%30.06%49.68%
Winchester 4,13748.69%4,29450.54%600.71%50.06%48.16%
Wise 9,69183.90%1,79615.55%530.46%110.10%47.86%
Wythe 9,45881.78%2,04317.67%590.51%50.04%56.43%
York 17,48558.59%12,19040.85%1500.50%160.05%60.79%
Virginia counties shift 2017-2021 gubernatorial.svg
Virginia counties trend 2017-2021 gubernatorial.svg

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Results by region and precinct

Results by region 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by region.svg
Results by region
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Shenandoah Valley.svg
Results in the Shenandoah Valley
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Northern Virginia.svg
Results in Northern Virginia
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Central Virginia.svg
Results in Central Virginia
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Southwest Virginia.svg
Results in Southwest Virginia
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Southside.svg
Results in Southside
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by precinct in Hampton Roads.svg
Results in Hampton Roads

Results by congressional district

Youngkin won 6 of 11 congressional districts, including two that were held by Democratic U.S. representatives at the time. He also flipped Virginia's 2nd congressional district which was previously won by Ralph Northam in 2017. [244] [245]

DistrictYoungkinMcAuliffeBlandingRepresentative
1st 58.6%40.7%0.7% Rob Wittman
2nd 53.7%45.5%0.8% Elaine Luria
3rd 37.0%61.9%1.1% Bobby Scott
4th 42.6%55.9%1.5% Donald McEachin
5th 59.7%39.7%0.6% Bob Good
6th 66.0%33.3%0.7% Ben Cline
7th 55.0%44.3%0.7% Abigail Spanberger
8th 26.8%72.5%0.8% Don Beyer
9th 74.6%24.8%0.8% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.4%52.0%0.6% Jennifer Wexton
11th 32.6%66.6%0.8% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

Youngkin won the election, 50.6%–48.6%. [2] [246] The margin of victory was the narrowest margin in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1989. McAuliffe conceded the day after the election and congratulated Youngkin, saying he was "proud" to campaign "for the values we so deeply believe in". [247] [248] Republicans also flipped the lieutenant governor and attorney general races that were held concurrently, [249] as well as took control of the Virginia House of Delegates. This election, as well as the concurrent elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general, marked the first time since the 1969 gubernatorial election that a Republican won Virginia without Loudoun County, and the first time since the 1960 presidential election that a Republican won statewide without Prince William County. This is the first time Surry County backed the Republican candidate since John Warner's largely uncontested re-election in 2002 and the first time Prince Edward County or Northampton County voted Republican since 2009. This is also the first time any Virginia statewide candidate has won without at least one of the three Northern Virginia counties of Loudoun, Prince William, Fairfax, or the independent cities therein. Over 3.28 million votes were cast, exceeding the 2017 gubernatorial election total by roughly 625,000 and exceeding all other previous Virginia gubernatorial elections by over a million.

Youngkin's victory is attributed to the "Youngkin coalition" of largely Trump supporters, suburbanites and Hispanics which contributed to a Republican victory in the state. [250] [251] [252] The appeal to suburban voters, who have shifted away from the Republican Party as Donald Trump increasingly influenced it, was attributed to Youngkin's distancing from Trump and hesitancy to openly embrace him. [251] Youngkin's performance in the suburbs near Washington, D.C. were stronger than that of Trump's margins in the 2020 United States presidential election. [253] During the final days preceding the general election held on November 2, Youngkin campaigned in the suburban areas of northern Virginia. [254] Previous similar attempts to combine a coalition of Trump supporters and suburban voters, including Ed Gillespie's run for governor in 2017, were met with failure. [255]

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by voters in person as well as by phone. [256]

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election (CNN) [256]
Demographic subgroupYoungkinMcAuliffe % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 69323
Moderates 396041
Conservatives 93736
Party
Democrats 49636
Republicans 97334
Independents 544530
Gender
Men564448
Women465352
Race/ethnicity
White 623873
Black 138616
Latino 32665
Asian 33673
Gender by race
White men663436
White women574337
Black men13867
Black women14869
Latino men (of any race)N/AN/A2
Latino women (of any race)23753
Other racial/ethnic groups38625
Age
18–24 years old47525
25–29 years old43545
30–39 years old475313
40–49 years old514818
50–64 years old524834
65 and older554526
2020 presidential vote
Biden 59548
Trump 98244
Education
Never attended college 613815
Some college education584124
Associate degree 584212
Bachelor's degree 445525
Advanced degree406024
Education by race
White college graduates475237
White no college degree762436
Non-white college graduates257511
Non-white no college degree207915
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees396118
White women without college degrees742519
White men with college degrees554419
White men without college degrees782217
Non-white227727
Issue regarded as most important
Taxes 683215
Economy 554433
Education 534724
Coronavirus 168415
Abortion 58418
Abortion should be
Legal267358
Illegal871337
Region
DC Suburbs366429
Central Virginia594018
Hampton Roads465415
Richmond/Southside505018
Mountain703020
Area type
Urban326721
Suburban534660
Rual633619

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
  4. ↑ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
  5. ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
  6. ↑ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
  7. 1 2 3 Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  8. 1 2 3 Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  9. ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
  10. ↑ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
  11. ↑ Regions defined in a Washington Post article. [243]
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  4. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign for Lieutenant Governor
  6. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
  7. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
  8. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  9. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  10. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
  11. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project

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The 2021 Virginia elections were held on Tuesday, November 2, 2021. Republicans swept all three statewide races and won back control of the House of Delegates in an upset. Primary elections were held on June 8, 2021. It was the first state gubernatorial and legislative election to be held since the passage of several voting rights bills into law by the Democratic trifecta in the 161st Virginia General Assembly, including expansions of early voting, designation of Election Day as a paid state holiday, legalization of automatic and same-day voter registration, the Voting Rights Act of Virginia, and repeal of Voter ID laws.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glenn Youngkin</span> Governor of Virginia since 2022

Glenn Allen Youngkin is an American businessman and politician serving as the 74th governor of Virginia since 2022. A member of the Republican Party, he spent 25 years at the private-equity firm The Carlyle Group, where he became co-CEO in 2018. He resigned from the position in 2020 to run for governor.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2025 Virginia gubernatorial election</span> Election for Governor of Virginia

The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin will be ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the state's governors from serving consecutive terms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Virginia Senate election</span>

The 2023 Virginia Senate election was held on Tuesday, November 7, 2023, concurrently with elections for the Virginia House of Delegates, to elect senators to all 40 seats in the Senate of Virginia for the 163rd and 164th Virginia Assembly. Nomination primaries held through the Department of Elections were held June 20, 2023. These were the first elections held following redistricting as a result of the 2020 census.

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