2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

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Turnout	75.07 5.8 pp [1]
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 13 0 Popular vote 2,415,216 1,960,103 Percentage 54.15% 43.95%
County and independent city results Congressional district results Precinct results[ original research? ] Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[2] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[3]

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.15% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.2%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. ^[4] Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia since William Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976. ^[5] He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since 1992 to win without Buckingham County and Essex County, and the first since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.^{[ citation needed ]}

The diversification of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outside Richmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%. ^[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses. ^[7] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively. ^{[8] [9]} At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump. ^{[7] [10] [11]}

Democratic primary

Further information: 2020 Virginia Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates. ^[12]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary § VAresults.[ edit ]

Popular vote share by county

  Biden—30–40%

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Biden—70–80%

  Sanders—30–40%

  Sanders—40–50%

Popular vote share by congressional district

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary ^{[13] [lower-alpha 1]}

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [15]
Joe Biden	705,501	53.30	67
Bernie Sanders	306,388	23.15	31
Elizabeth Warren	142,546	10.77	1
Michael Bloomberg	128,030	9.67
Tulsi Gabbard	11,288	0.85
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	11,199	0.85
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	8,414	0.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3]	3,361	0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	1,910	0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	1,472	0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3]	1,437	0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	902	0.07
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	691	0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3]	370	0.03
Write-in votes	184	0.01
Total	1,323,693	100%	99

Green primary

The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020. ^[16]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary [16]
Candidate	Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Howie Hawkins	42	62.7%	42	62.7%	43	64.2%	44	65.7%
Dario Hunter	17	25.4%	18	26.9%	21	31.3%	23	34.3%
Kent Mesplay	3	4.5%	3	4.5%	3	4.5%	Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry	2	3.0%	2	3.0%	Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in)	2	3.0%	Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in)	1	1.5%	Eliminated
Total votes							67	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [17]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
Inside Elections [18]	Solid D	November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
Politico [20]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
RCP [21]	Lean D	November 3, 2020
Niskanen [22]	Safe D	November 3, 2020
CNN [23]	Solid D	November 3, 2020
The Economist [24]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
CBS News [25]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
270towin [26]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
ABC News [27]	Solid D	November 3, 2020
NPR [28]	Likely D	September 16, 2020
NBC News [29]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
538 [30]	Solid D	November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 4]	Margin
270 to Win	October 15–31, 2020	November 3, 2020	52.8%	41.0%	6.2%	Biden +11.8
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	53.7%	41.9%	4.4%	Biden +11.8
Average			53.1%	40.5%	5.3%	Biden +11.8

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 5]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	4,550 (LV)	± 2%	41% [lower-alpha 6]	57%	-	-	–	–
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	467 (LV)	± 6.4%	39%	59%	2%	1%	–	–
Data for Progress	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	690 (LV)	± 3.7%	43%	54%	1%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 7]	–
Roanoke College	Oct 23–29, 2020	802 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	53%	2%	-	1%	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	7,663 (LV)	–	43%	55%	-	-	–	–
Christopher Newport University	Oct 15–27, 2020	908 (LV)	± 3.4%	41%	53%	-	-	2% [lower-alpha 8]	4%
Swayable	Oct 23–26, 2020	351 (LV)	± 5.2%	44%	55%	1%	-	–	–
Virginia Commonwealth University	Oct 13–22, 2020	709 (LV)	± 4.93%	39%	51%	-	-	2% [lower-alpha 9]	8% [lower-alpha 10]
Schar School/Washington Post	Oct 13–19, 2020	908 (LV)	± 4%	41%	52%	3%	-	0% [lower-alpha 11]	4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 11–14, 2020	1,231 (LV)	± 3.1%	42%	55%	-	-	3% [lower-alpha 12]	1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College	Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020	602 (LV)	–	39% [lower-alpha 13]	54%	4%	-	-	4%
Survey Monkey/Tableau	Sep 15 – Oct 12, 2020	4,248 (LV)	–	43%	55%	-	-	–	2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia [upper-alpha 1]	Oct 9–11, 2020	607 (LV)	–	42%	51%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	2,882 (LV)	–	42%	56%	-	-	–	2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia [upper-alpha 1]	Sep 22–25, 2020	600 (LV)	–	41%	52%	-	-	–	–
Christopher Newport University	Sep 9–21, 2020	796 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	48%	-	-	2% [lower-alpha 14]	7%
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020	693 (LV)	± 6.22%	39%	52%	-	-	1% [lower-alpha 15]	8% [lower-alpha 10]
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	2,626 (LV)	–	41%	57%	-	-	–	2%
Roanoke College	Aug 9–22, 2020	566 (LV)	± 4.1%	39%	53%	-	-	3% [lower-alpha 16]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	3,178 (LV)	–	43%	55%	-	-	–	2%
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26, 2020	1,156 (LV)	± 2.9%	41%	52%	-	-	–	–
Virginia Commonwealth University	Jul 11–19, 2020	725 (LV)	± 6.2%	39%	50%	-	-	1%	10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	1,619 (LV)	–	42%	57%	-	-	–	1%
Morning Consult	May 17–26, 2020	1,148 (LV)	–	42% [lower-alpha 17]	52%	-	-	–	–
Roanoke College	May 3–16, 2020	563 (LV)	± 4.1%	39%	51%	-	-	–	–
Virginia Commonwealth University	Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020	812 (A)	± 4.5%	41%	51%	-	-	–	8%
Hampton University	Feb 25–28, 2020	768 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	45%	-	-	–	–
Roanoke College	Feb 9–18, 2020	520 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	48%	-	-	–	–
Mason-Dixon	Dec 12–16, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	49%	-	-	–	6%
Virginia Commonwealth University	Dec 2–13, 2019	728 (LV)	± 5.1%	46%	49%	-	-	–	5% [lower-alpha 10]
Virginia Commonwealth University	Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019	645 (LV)	± 5.0%	44%	52%	-	-	–	4% [lower-alpha 10]
University of Mary Washington/Research America	Sep 3–15, 2019	1,009 (A)	± 3.1%	37%	55%	-	-	1%	4%

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 43% Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% – Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% – Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8% with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 50% 2% 5% with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 37% 39% Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 46% with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 44% – – Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 45% – 4% Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 45% – 7% [lower-alpha 10] Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 48% – 5% [lower-alpha 10] University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 2% 4% with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 42% – – Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% – 8% Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 47% – 6% [lower-alpha 10] Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 50% – 4% [lower-alpha 10] University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 1% 5%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Other Undecided Wason Center, Christopher Newport University Sep 4–30, 2019 726 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 51% 6% [lower-alpha 18] 6% with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Other Undecided Wason Center, Christopher Newport University Feb 3–23, 2020 866 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 59% [lower-alpha 19] 0% [lower-alpha 20] 2% with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 5] Margin of error Generic Republican Generic Democrat Other Undecided Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 48% 49% – 3% [lower-alpha 10] Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 25% 45% 3% 20%

Results

Line for early voting in Herndon

2020 United States presidential election in Virginia ^[31]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	2,415,216	54.15%	+4.42%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	1,960,103	43.95%	-0.46%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	64,761	1.45%	-1.52%
	Write-in		19,765	0.44%	-0.41%
Total votes			4,459,845	100.00%

Results by city and county

Independent cities have been italicized.

City or county	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Write-in		Margin		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Accomack	44.68%	7,578	54.07%	9,172	1.11%	188	0.14%	24	-9.39%	-1,594	16,962
Albemarle	65.68%	42,466	32.18%	20,804	1.57%	1,014	0.58%	373	33.50%	21,662	64,657
Alexandria	80.28%	66,240	17.63%	14,544	1.24%	1,022	0.85%	702	62.65%	51,696	82,508
Alleghany	27.34%	2,243	71.43%	5,859	1.08%	89	0.15%	12	-44.09%	-3,616	8,203
Amelia	30.55%	2,411	68.29%	5,390	1.01%	80	0.15%	12	-37.74%	-2,979	7,893
Amherst	33.35%	5,672	64.93%	11,041	1.48%	251	0.24%	41	-31.58%	-5,369	17,005
Appomattox	26.09%	2,418	72.31%	6,702	1.28%	119	0.31%	29	-46.22%	-4,284	9,268
Arlington	80.60%	105,344	17.08%	22,318	1.40%	1,836	0.92%	1,201	63.52%	83,026	130,699
Augusta	25.64%	10,840	72.65%	30,714	1.44%	608	0.27%	116	-47.01%	-19,874	42,278
Bath	25.83%	646	73.33%	1,834	0.64%	16	0.20%	5	-47.50%	-1,188	2,501
Bedford	25.02%	12,176	73.15%	35,600	1.45%	708	0.38%	185	-48.13%	-23,424	48,669
Bland	15.29%	532	83.44%	2,903	1.15%	40	0.11%	4	-68.15%	-2,371	3,479
Botetourt	26.99%	5,700	71.49%	15,099	1.25%	264	0.27%	57	-44.50%	-9,399	21,120
Bristol	29.63%	2,313	68.50%	5,347	1.60%	125	0.27%	21	-38.87%	-3,034	7,806
Brunswick	57.27%	4,552	42.24%	3,357	0.43%	34	0.06%	5	15.03%	1,195	7,948
Buchanan	15.94%	1,587	83.50%	8,311	0.44%	44	0.11%	11	-67.56%	-6,724	9,953
Buckingham	42.71%	3,471	55.92%	4,544	1.14%	93	0.22%	18	-13.21%	-1,073	8,126
Buena Vista	29.72%	825	67.11%	1,863	2.59%	72	0.58%	16	-37.39%	-1,038	2,776
Campbell	27.00%	8,070	71.07%	21,245	1.64%	490	0.29%	87	-44.07%	-13,175	29,892
Caroline	47.01%	7,657	51.18%	8,336	1.59%	259	0.22%	36	-4.17%	-679	16,288
Carroll	18.16%	2,842	80.88%	12,659	0.75%	118	0.20%	32	-62.72%	-9,817	15,651
Charles City	59.09%	2,624	39.65%	1,761	1.22%	54	0.05%	2	19.44%	863	4,441
Charlotte	37.43%	2,317	61.62%	3,815	0.78%	48	0.18%	11	-24.19%	-1,498	6,191
Charlottesville	85.50%	20,696	12.78%	3,094	1.28%	311	0.43%	104	72.72%	17,602	24,205
Chesapeake	52.22%	66,377	45.77%	58,180	1.65%	2,098	0.36%	453	6.45%	8,197	127,108
Chesterfield	52.45%	106,935	45.77%	93,326	1.44%	2,927	0.34%	696	6.68%	13,609	203,884
Clarke	41.98%	3,920	55.61%	5,192	1.91%	178	0.50%	47	-13.63%	-1,272	9,337
Colonial Heights	32.50%	2,972	65.68%	6,007	1.48%	135	0.35%	32	-33.18%	-3,035	9,146
Covington	37.03%	964	60.70%	1,580	1.92%	50	0.35%	9	-23.67%	-616	2,603
Craig	18.52%	587	80.03%	2,536	1.26%	40	0.19%	6	-61.51%	-1,949	3,169
Culpeper	39.15%	10,617	59.05%	16,012	1.50%	406	0.30%	81	-19.90%	-5,395	27,116
Cumberland	41.94%	2,227	56.85%	3,019	1.00%	53	0.21%	11	-14.91%	-792	5,310
Danville	60.40%	11,710	38.31%	7,428	1.01%	195	0.29%	56	22.09%	4,282	19,389
Dickenson	20.58%	1,503	78.71%	5,748	0.60%	44	0.11%	8	-58.13%	-4,245	7,303
Dinwiddie	41.24%	6,224	57.61%	8,695	0.95%	144	0.19%	29	-16.37%	-2,471	15,092
Emporia	67.70%	1,612	31.67%	754	0.55%	13	0.08%	2	36.03%	858	2,381
Essex	49.17%	3,038	49.77%	3,075	0.94%	58	0.11%	7	-0.60%	-37	6,178
Fairfax City	68.04%	9,174	29.72%	4,007	1.49%	201	0.75%	101	38.32%	5,167	13,483
Fairfax County	69.89%	419,943	28.03%	168,401	1.33%	8,014	0.74%	4,465	41.86%	251,542	600,823
Falls Church	81.03%	7,146	16.90%	1,490	1.29%	114	0.78%	69	64.13%	5,656	8,819
Fauquier	40.23%	17,565	57.50%	25,106	1.78%	777	0.49%	213	-17.27%	-7,541	43,661
Floyd	31.93%	3,004	66.17%	6,225	1.56%	147	0.34%	32	-34.24%	-3,221	9,408
Fluvanna	46.81%	7,414	51.48%	8,155	1.43%	226	0.28%	45	-4.67%	-741	15,840
Franklin City	62.22%	2,525	36.64%	1,487	0.86%	35	0.27%	11	25.58%	1,038	4,058
Franklin County	28.22%	8,381	70.35%	20,895	1.19%	354	0.24%	72	-42.13%	-12,514	29,702
Frederick	35.33%	17,207	62.74%	30,558	1.60%	781	0.32%	157	-27.41%	-13,351	48,703
Fredericksburg	66.22%	8,517	31.39%	4,037	1.87%	240	0.53%	68	34.83%	4,480	12,862
Galax	29.45%	777	69.67%	1,838	0.68%	18	0.19%	5	-40.22%	-1,061	2,638
Giles	23.50%	2,156	74.93%	6,876	1.36%	125	0.21%	19	-51.43%	-4,720	9,176
Gloucester	31.25%	6,964	66.76%	14,875	1.75%	389	0.24%	54	-35.51%	-7,911	22,282
Goochland	39.44%	6,685	58.80%	9,966	1.43%	242	0.34%	57	-19.36%	-3,281	16,950
Grayson	18.88%	1,535	80.30%	6,529	0.69%	56	0.14%	11	-61.42%	-4,994	8,131
Greene	36.80%	4,163	60.70%	6,866	2.13%	241	0.36%	41	-23.90%	-2,703	11,311
Greensville	57.43%	2,627	41.85%	1,914	0.50%	23	0.22%	10	15.58%	713	4,574
Halifax	42.01%	7,666	57.09%	10,418	0.77%	140	0.13%	24	-15.08%	-2,752	18,248
Hampton	70.14%	46,220	27.97%	18,430	1.53%	1,006	0.37%	245	42.17%	27,790	65,901
Hanover	35.66%	25,307	62.45%	44,318	1.55%	1,103	0.34%	239	-26.79%	-19,011	70,967
Harrisonburg	64.51%	11,022	32.72%	5,591	2.13%	364	0.64%	109	31.79%	5,431	17,086
Henrico	63.65%	116,572	34.64%	63,440	1.32%	2,414	0.40%	726	29.01%	53,132	183,152
Henry	34.96%	9,127	64.07%	16,725	0.85%	223	0.11%	30	-29.11%	-7,598	26,105
Highland	27.20%	417	71.23%	1,092	1.44%	22	0.13%	2	-44.03%	-675	1,533
Hopewell	56.52%	5,430	41.84%	4,020	1.36%	131	0.28%	27	14.68%	1,410	9,608
Isle of Wight	40.07%	9,399	58.44%	13,707	1.40%	328	0.09%	22	-18.37%	-4,308	23,456
James City	51.50%	25,553	46.66%	23,153	1.43%	710	0.42%	206	4.84%	2,400	49,622
King and Queen	38.64%	1,590	59.54%	2,450	1.56%	64	0.27%	11	-20.90%	-860	4,115
King George	37.99%	5,404	59.38%	8,446	2.21%	314	0.42%	60	-21.39%	-3,042	14,224
King William	30.37%	3,260	68.18%	7,320	1.32%	142	0.13%	14	-37.81%	-4,060	10,736
Lancaster	47.09%	3,368	51.69%	3,697	0.99%	71	0.22%	16	-4.60%	-329	7,152
Lee	14.97%	1,489	84.10%	8,365	0.78%	78	0.14%	14	-69.13%	-6,876	9,946
Lexington	64.84%	1,791	32.80%	906	1.74%	48	0.62%	17	32.04%	885	2,762
Loudoun	61.54%	138,372	36.51%	82,088	1.40%	3,139	0.56%	1,263	25.03%	56,284	224,862
Louisa	37.73%	8,269	60.66%	13,294	1.35%	295	0.26%	57	-22.93%	-5,025	21,915
Lunenburg	40.30%	2,418	58.95%	3,537	0.67%	40	0.08%	5	-18.65%	-1,119	6,000
Lynchburg	49.63%	18,048	47.02%	17,097	2.36%	857	0.99%	361	2.61%	951	36,363
Madison	33.19%	2,698	65.20%	5,300	1.30%	106	0.31%	25	-32.01%	-2,602	8,129
Manassas	61.03%	10,356	36.87%	6,256	1.65%	280	0.45%	76	24.16%	4,100	16,968
Manassas Park	65.58%	3,992	32.51%	1,979	1.64%	100	0.26%	16	33.07%	2,013	6,087
Martinsville	62.63%	3,766	36.01%	2,165	1.21%	73	0.15%	9	26.62%	1,601	6,013
Mathews	31.33%	1,825	66.96%	3,901	1.49%	87	0.22%	13	-35.61%	-2,076	5,826
Mecklenburg	41.98%	6,803	57.18%	9,266	0.70%	113	0.14%	22	-15.20%	-2,463	16,204
Middlesex	36.71%	2,491	61.84%	4,196	1.13%	77	0.31%	21	-25.13%	-1,705	6,785
Montgomery	51.55%	23,218	45.80%	20,629	2.09%	942	0.55%	248	5.75%	2,589	45,037
Nelson	46.45%	4,327	51.65%	4,812	1.61%	150	0.29%	27	-5.20%	-485	9,316
New Kent	31.95%	4,621	66.59%	9,631	1.19%	172	0.27%	39	-34.64%	-5,010	14,463
Newport News	65.39%	53,099	32.48%	26,377	1.77%	1,438	0.36%	289	32.91%	26,722	81,203
Norfolk	71.69%	64,440	26.08%	23,443	1.79%	1,608	0.43%	390	45.61%	40,997	89,881
Northampton	54.47%	3,667	43.89%	2,955	1.49%	100	0.15%	10	10.58%	712	6,732
Northumberland	41.61%	3,252	57.39%	4,485	0.72%	56	0.28%	22	-15.78%	-1,233	7,815
Norton	28.98%	464	69.27%	1,109	1.31%	21	0.44%	7	-40.29%	-645	1,601
Nottoway	41.98%	2,971	56.89%	4,027	1.02%	72	0.11%	8	-14.91%	-1,056	7,078
Orange	38.54%	7,995	59.91%	12,426	1.29%	267	0.26%	54	-21.37%	-4,431	20,742
Page	24.03%	3,007	74.68%	9,345	1.07%	134	0.22%	28	-50.65%	-6,338	12,514
Patrick	20.50%	1,954	78.51%	7,485	0.85%	81	0.15%	14	-58.01%	-5,531	9,534
Petersburg	87.75%	12,389	11.22%	1,584	0.76%	108	0.26%	37	76.53%	10,805	14,118
Pittsylvania	29.55%	10,115	69.39%	23,751	0.83%	285	0.22%	76	-39.84%	-13,636	34,227
Poquoson	26.14%	2,054	71.34%	5,605	2.04%	160	0.48%	38	-45.20%	-3,551	7,857
Portsmouth	69.42%	30,948	28.61%	12,755	1.62%	723	0.35%	156	40.81%	18,193	44,582
Powhatan	26.96%	5,320	71.24%	14,055	1.63%	321	0.17%	34	-44.28%	-8,735	19,730
Prince Edward	51.94%	4,973	46.31%	4,434	1.42%	136	0.32%	31	5.63%	539	9,574
Prince George	40.75%	7,103	57.96%	10,103	1.12%	195	0.18%	31	-17.21%	-3,000	17,432
Prince William [lower-alpha 21]	63.56%	144,511	34.70%	78,895	1.43%	3,242	0.32%	729	27.03%	61,641	228,056
Pulaski	28.34%	4,925	69.79%	12,127	1.58%	275	0.28%	49	-41.45%	-7,202	17,376
Radford	53.13%	3,358	44.08%	2,786	2.29%	145	0.49%	31	9.05%	572	6,320
Rappahannock	42.11%	2,096	56.49%	2,812	1.12%	56	0.28%	14	-14.38%	-716	4,978
Richmond City	82.92%	92,175	14.94%	16,603	1.52%	1,691	0.62%	690	67.98%	75,572	111,159
Richmond County	36.88%	1,513	62.09%	2,547	0.76%	31	0.27%	11	-25.21%	-1,034	4,102
Roanoke City	61.80%	26,773	36.02%	15,607	1.79%	777	0.38%	166	25.78%	11,166	43,323
Roanoke County	38.12%	21,801	59.93%	34,268	1.59%	910	0.36%	205	-21.81%	-12,467	57,184
Rockbridge	33.02%	4,086	65.37%	8,088	1.33%	165	0.27%	34	-32.35%	-4,002	12,373
Rockingham	28.86%	12,644	69.27%	30,349	1.49%	653	0.38%	165	-40.41%	-17,705	43,811
Russell	17.73%	2,373	81.27%	10,879	0.87%	116	0.13%	18	-63.54%	-8,506	13,386
Salem	39.45%	5,148	58.87%	7,683	1.69%	220	0.00%	0	-19.42%	-2,535	13,051
Scott	15.57%	1,692	83.38%	9,063	0.83%	90	0.22%	24	-67.81%	-7,371	10,869
Shenandoah	28.86%	6,836	69.51%	16,463	1.46%	346	0.16%	39	-40.65%	-9,627	23,684
Smyth	21.28%	3,008	77.55%	10,963	0.94%	133	0.23%	32	-56.27%	-7,955	14,136
Southampton	40.56%	3,969	58.55%	5,730	0.89%	87	0.00%	0	-17.99%	-1,761	9,786
Spotsylvania	45.55%	34,307	52.33%	39,411	1.73%	1,301	0.40%	298	-6.78%	-5,104	75,317
Stafford	50.54%	40,245	47.27%	37,636	1.73%	1,376	0.46%	368	3.27%	2,609	79,625
Staunton	53.74%	6,981	43.84%	5,695	1.92%	249	0.50%	65	9.90%	1,286	12,990
Suffolk	57.77%	28,676	40.45%	20,082	1.46%	724	0.32%	160	17.32%	8,594	49,642
Surry	53.61%	2,397	45.29%	2,025	0.89%	40	0.20%	9	8.32%	372	4,471
Sussex	55.56%	2,827	43.61%	2,219	0.69%	35	0.14%	7	11.95%	608	5,088
Tazewell	15.92%	3,205	83.10%	16,731	0.79%	159	0.19%	39	-67.18%	-13,526	20,134
Virginia Beach	51.59%	117,393	46.18%	105,087	1.85%	4,208	0.38%	873	5.41%	12,306	227,561
Warren	31.22%	6,603	66.53%	14,069	1.73%	365	0.52%	110	-35.31%	-7,466	21,147
Washington	23.07%	6,617	75.58%	21,679	1.06%	304	0.30%	85	-52.51%	-15,062	28,685
Waynesboro	46.29%	4,961	51.39%	5,507	1.95%	209	0.37%	40	-5.10%	-546	10,717
Westmoreland	45.31%	4,501	53.54%	5,318	0.91%	90	0.24%	24	-8.23%	-817	9,933
Williamsburg	69.59%	4,790	28.52%	1,963	1.34%	92	0.55%	38	41.07%	2,827	6,883
Winchester	54.60%	6,610	43.13%	5,221	1.76%	213	0.51%	62	11.47%	1,389	12,106
Wise	18.72%	3,110	80.45%	13,366	0.65%	108	0.19%	31	-61.73%	-10,256	16,615
Wythe	20.85%	3,143	77.85%	11,733	1.13%	170	0.17%	26	-57.00%	-8,590	15,072
York	45.59%	17,683	52.19%	20,241	1.75%	680	0.47%	183	-6.60%	-2,558	38,787

Swing by county and independent city

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Trend relative to the state by county and independent city

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

County and independent city flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Results by congressional district

Biden won 7 out of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	51.4%	47%	Rob Wittman
2nd	46.7%	51.4%	Elaine Luria
3rd	31.2%	67.2%	Bobby Scott
4th	36.8%	61.8%	Donald McEachin
5th	53.6%	45.1%	Denver Riggleman
			Bob Good
6th	59.8%	38.6%	Ben Cline
7th	48.7%	49.8%	Abigail Spanberger
8th	21.1%	77.6%	Don Beyer
9th	70.4%	28.4%	Morgan Griffith
10th	39.6%	58.9%	Jennifer Wexton
11th	28.3%	70.3%	Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Chesapeake (independent city)
• Chesterfield (no municipalities)
• Lynchburg (independent city)
• James City (no municipalities)
• Stafford (no municipalities)
• Virginia Beach (independent city)

Analysis

In this election, Virginia voted 5.6% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliably Republican state at the presidential level from 1952 to 2004 (having only gone to the Democrats once during that period, in Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide), it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. In recent years, densely populated counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., have tilted towards the Democrats. This was the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the state by 20.5% in his first run), and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.

As fellow Southern state Georgia tilted towards Biden, he became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to carry both states. This was also the first election in which a former Confederate state backed a Democratic candidate by a margin of victory greater than 10% since 1996, when Arkansas and Louisiana did so for Bill Clinton.

Following the election, news and political analysts considered the presidential results in Virginia, along with Democrats holding the senate seat held by Mark Warner, their house congressional majority, plus the previous year's elections in which Democrats flipped the state General Assembly, to be indicative that it was no longer a swing state, but a blue state. ^{[32] [33]}

Their domination of state and local offices would be short-lived, however, as in 2021 the Republicans flipped the Democratic-held offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, as well as winning control of the Virginia House of Delegates. ^{[34] [35]} In 2023, Democrats recaptured the House of Delegates, winning full control of the General Assembly once again, albeit by narrower margins than what they acquired in 2019.

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroup	Biden	Trump	No Answer	% of Voters
Party
Democrat	96	4	N/A	36
Republican	9	90	N/A	34
Independent	57	38	N/A	30
Gender
Men	49	48	1	49
Women	61	38	1	51
Race
White	45	53	2	67
Black	89	10	1	18
Latino	61	36	3	7
Asian	60	38	2	4
Other	50	43	7	3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	39	58	3	33
White women	50	49	1	33
Black men	86	14	N/A	8
Black women	92	8	N/A	11
Latino men (of any race)	53	41	6	3
Latino women (of any race)	68	32	N/A	4
All other races	58	40	2	8
Gender by marital status
Married men	50	49	N/A	29
Married women	51	47	N/A	28
Unmarried men	58	39	3	20
Unmarried women	69	30	N/A	23
Parents
Men with children	49	49	1	15
Women with children	58	41	1	19
Men no children	53	43	4	34
Women no children	60	38	2	32
Age
18–24 years old	62	33	1	12
25–29 years old	63	34	3	8
30–39 years old	60	38	2	17
40–49 years old	63	36	1	16
50–64 years old	48	51	N/A	29
65 and older	45	54	1	18
LGBT
Yes	83	11	N/A	5
No	53	43	4	95
First time voter
First time voter	65	32	3	9
Everyone else	55	42	N/A	91
U.S. military veteran
Yes	36	62	N/A	16
No	59	38	N/A	84
Education
College graduate	57	40	N/A	43
No college degree	53	46	1	57
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates	52	45	3	33
White no college degree	38	62	N/A	34
Non-white college graduates	75	24	1	10
Non-white no college degree	76	22	2	23
Income
Under $50,000	60	39	1	33
$50,000–99,999	52	47	1	27
Over $100,000	46	53	1	41
Abortion should be
Legal	78	20	2	54
Illegal	29	69	1	42
Area Type
Urban	64	34	2	24
Suburban	53	45	2	60
Rural	46	52	2	16
Region
DC Suburbs	68	30	N/A	30
Central Virginia	44	53	3	16
Hampton Roads	62	36	N/A	16
Richmond/Southside	56	42	N/A	18
Mountain	35	63	N/A	20
Source: CNN [36]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Virginia
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes. ^[14] This article includes them.
2. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
3. Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
5. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
6. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
7. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
8. "Someone else" with 2%
9. "Third party candidate" with 2%
10. Includes "refused"
11. "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
12. "Someone else" with 3%
13. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
14. "Another candidate" with 2%
15. "Third party candidate" with 1%
16. "Some other candidate" with 3%
17. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
18. "Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
19. "It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
20. "Refused" with 0%
21. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Trump's countywide votes to be overreported by 2,327 and Biden's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,648. See https://web.archive.org/web/20240112013754/https://twitter.com/PWCVotes/status/1745561439354470622

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

References

1. "Virginia Department of Elections - Registration/Turnout Reports".
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state". Inside Nova. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
5. "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that". Virginia Mercury . November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
6. "Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 13, 2020.
7. "Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention". Frontloading. September 18, 2019. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
8. Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
9. Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
10. "Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
11. Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020). "Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
12. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
13. "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
14. "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
15. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
16. Jonah Thomas (May 12, 2020). "2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
17. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
18. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
19. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
20. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
21. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
22. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
23. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
24. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
25. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
26. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
27. "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
28. Montanaro, Domenico (September 16, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape tightens some, but Biden is still ahead". NPR. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
29. "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. October 27, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
30. "Biden is very likely to win Virginia". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
31. "2020 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on January 2, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
32. "Virginia went from purple to blue. Here's what lies ahead for Virginia Republicans". 13newsnow.com. November 5, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
33. "EDITORIAL: 'NoVA creep" turns former red state blue". Fredericksburg.com. November 18, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
34. "So, what color is Virginia now?". Roll Call. November 16, 2021. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
35. "Republicans Bucked Virginia's Blue State Trend. Here Are A Few Reasons Why". WAMU. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
36. "Georgia 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Virginia". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Virginia at Ballotpedia