2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Shaheen Senate Portrait (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Jeanne Shaheen Bryant "Corky" Messner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote450,778326,229
Percentage56.63%40.99%

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by municipality.svg
2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by congressional district.svg
NH Senate 2020.svg
Shaheen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Messner:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.

Contents

Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points while carrying two counties that voted for Donald Trump.

The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Tom Alciere, former Republican state representative [2]
  • Paul J. Krautmann, former dentist [2]

Endorsements

Jeanne Shaheen

Federal officials

Local officials

  • Jim Bouley, Concord Mayor [6]
  • Joyce Craig, Manchester Mayor [6]
  • Jim Donchess, Nashua Mayor [6]
  • Andrew Hosmer, Laconia Mayor [6]

Organizations

Results

Results by county:
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Shaheen-->=90% New Hampshire U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Shaheen—≥90%
Democratic primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) 142,012 93.88%
Democratic Paul Krautman5,9143.91%
Democratic Tom Alciere2,9921.98%
Republican Don Bolduc (write-in)1990.13%
Republican Corky Messner (write-in)1370.09%
Republican Andy Martin (write-in)110.0%
Republican Gerard Beloin (write-in)30.0%
Total votes151,268 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Bryant Messner, corporate attorney and former U.S. Army soldier [24] [25]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Don Bolduc

Federal officials

  • Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas and former U.S. Representative (AR-04) (2013–2015) [38]
  • Bob Smith, former U.S. senator from New Hampshire (1990–2003) and U.S. Representative (NH-01) (1985–1990) [39]
  • Michael Waltz, U.S. representative (FL-06) [40]
  • Thomas E. White, former U.S. Secretary of the Army (2001–2004) [40]

State officials

  • Kevin Avard, former state senator (2014–2018) and state representative (2010–2012) [40]
  • Jim Coburn, former state representative (2004–2006) and Republican nominee in the 2006 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [40]
  • Susan DeLemus, former state representative (2010–2012, 2014–2016) [40]
  • Shaun Doherty, former state representative (2008–2012) [40]
  • William Fowler, state representative [40]
  • Bob Giuda, state senator and former state representative (2001–2007) and state House deputy majority leader (2003–2004) [40]
  • Gary Hopper, state representative [40]
  • Joseph Kenney, former executive councilor (2014–2019) and state senator (2003–2009) [41]
  • Gary Lambert, former state senator (2010–2012) [40]
  • Tim Merlino, state representative [40]
  • Michael Moffett, former state representative (2016–2018) [40]
  • Reed Panasiti, state representative [40]
  • Terry Roy, state representative [40]
  • Doug Scamman, former state representative (2004–2010) and state House speaker [40]
  • David Testerman, state representative [40]
  • Joshua Whitehouse, former state representative (2014–2016) [40]
  • Raymond Wieczorek, former executive councilor (2002–2012) and mayor of Manchester (1990–2000) [40]

Organizations

Individuals

Corky Messner

Federal officials

State officials

  • Dennis Acton, state representative [46]
  • Joe Alexander, state representative [47]
  • Alan Bershtein, state representative [46]
  • Regina Birdsell, state senator and former state representative (2010–2014)[ citation needed ]
  • Tom Dolan, state representative [47]
  • Fred Doucette, state representative [48]
  • Jess Edwards, state representative [49]
  • Aboul Khan, state representative [46]
  • Tony Lekas, state representative [47]
  • Norman Major, state representative [46]
  • Charles McMahon, state representative [47]
  • Chuck Morse, state senator, state Senate minority leader, and former state Senate president (2013–2018) and acting Governor (2017) [50]
  • Bill O'Brien, Republican candidate in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire and former state representative (2004–2006, 2008–2016) and state House speaker (2010–2012) [51]
  • Mark Pearson, state representative [47]
  • Stephen Pearson, state representative [47]
  • Kim Rice, state representative [52]
  • Steve Schmidt, former state representative (2010–2018) [52]
  • Thomas Walsh, state representative [52]
  • Kenneth Weyler, state representative [52]
  • Michael Yakubovich, state representative [46]

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Don BolducCorey LewandowskiCorky MessnerBill O'BrienOtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [55] August 28 – September 1, 2020703 (LV)±  3.7%31%52%0% [b] 17%
Saint Anselm College [56] August 15–17, 2020475 (RV)±  4.5%29%31%4% [c] 37%
The Tarrance Group [57] [A] July 12–14, 2020401 (LV)±  5%27%39%
Remington Research Group [58] [B] June 21–23, 2020800 (LV)8%17%73%
April 2, 2020O'Brien withdraws from the race
December 31, 2019Lewandowski announces he will not run
Emerson College [59] September 6–9, 2019379 (RV)± 5.0%9%29%4%7%56%
Vote Adjustments/WMUR [60] September 5–6, 2019402 (LV)± 4.2%9%29%2%6%49%
September 4, 2019Messner announces his candidacy
Remington Research (R) [61] [B] August 12–14, 2019200 (RV)21%21%2%8%47%
Fabrizio (R) [62] [C] August 11–12, 2019400 (LV)11%30%10%

Results

Results by county:
Messner--50-60%
Messner--40-50%
Bolduc--40-50%
Bolduc--50-60% New Hampshire U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Messner—50–60%
  Messner—40–50%
  Bolduc—40–50%
  Bolduc—50–60%
Republican primary results [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Corky Messner 69,801 50.26%
Republican Don Bolduc 58,74942.30%
Republican Andy Martin 6,4434.64%
Republican Gerard Beloin3,0982.23%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (write-in)7710.56%
Democratic Tom Alciere (write-in)70.0%
Democratic Paul Krautmann (write-in)70.0%
Total votes138,876 100.0%

Other candidates

Justin O'Donnell, the Libertarian nominee Justin ODonnell.png
Justin O'Donnell, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Bull Moose Party

Did not qualify

  • Thomas Sharpe V, firefighter and U.S. Navy veteran [2] [64]

General election

Debate

2020 New Hampshire United States Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jeanne Shaheen Bryant MessnerJustin O'Donnell
1Oct. 20, 2020 WMUR-TV Laura Knoy
Annie Ropeik
[65] PPN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [66] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [67] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [68] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [69] Safe DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [70] Likely DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [71] Lean DOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [72] Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538 [73] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [74] Safe DNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corky
Messner (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research Group [79] October 26–28, 2020600 (LV)± 4%57%40%3% [d]
University of New Hampshire [80] October 24–28, 2020864 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%2% [e]
Saint Anselm College [81] October 23–26, 20201,018 (LV)± 3.1%54%39%8% [f]
YouGov/UMass Lowell [82] October 16–26, 2020757 (LV)± 4.5%57%38%5% [g]
University of New Hampshire [83] October 9–12, 2020899 (LV)± 3.3%55%40%6% [h]
Suffolk University [84] October 8–12, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%36%13% [i]
Saint Anselm College [85] October 1–4, 20201,147 (LV)± 2.9%53%38%8% [j]
Emerson College [86] September 30 – October 1, 2020700 (LV)± 3.6%55%40%5% [k]
American Research Group [79] September 25–28, 2020600 (LV)± 4%56%40%4% [l]
University of New Hampshire [87] September 24–28, 2020972 (LV)± 3.1%54%41%5% [m]
YouGov/UMass Lowell [88] September 17–25, 2020657 (LV)±  4.6%56%37%7% [n]
University of New Hampshire [55] August 28 – September 1, 20201,889 (LV)±  2.3%54%36%9% [o]
University of New Hampshire [89] July 16–28, 20201,893 (LV)± 2.2%54%35%12% [p]
University of New Hampshire [89] June 18–22, 2020932 (LV)± 2.8%50%37%13% [q]
University of New Hampshire [89] May 14–18, 2020788 (LV)± 3.2%52%34%14% [r]
University of New Hampshire [90] February 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%52%28%21% [s]
Hypothetical polling

with Don Bolduc

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Don
Bolduc (R)
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [55] August 28 – September 1, 20201,889 (LV)±  2.3%53%37%10% [t]
University of New Hampshire [89] July 16–28, 20201,893 (LV)± 2.2%54%35%10% [u]
University of New Hampshire [89] June 18–22, 2020932 (LV)± 2.8%51%39%11% [v]
University of New Hampshire [89] May 14–18, 2020788 (LV)± 3.2%50%39%11% [u]
University of New Hampshire [90] February 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%49%30%22% [w]
Remington Research (R) [61] [B] August 12–14, 2019427 (RV)± 4.7%47%42%11%
Gravis Marketing [91] August 2–6, 2019505 (RV)± 4.4%51%38%11% [x]

with Corey Lewandowski

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Corey
Lewandowski (R)
Other /
Undecided
American Research Group [79] December 12–16, 2019539 (RV)± 4.2%58%35%7%
Emerson College [59] November 22–26, 20191,184 (RV)± 2.8%52%40%8%
American Research Group [79] September 20–24, 2019560 (RV)± 4.1%56%34%10%
Emerson College [59] September 6–9, 20191,041 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%12%
Remington Research (R) [61] [B] August 12–14, 2019427 (RV)± 4.7%50%37%

with Bill O'Brien

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Bill
O'Brien (R)
OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [90] February 19–25, 2020576 (RV)± 4.1%51%30%5%14%
Gravis Marketing [91] August 2–6, 2019505 (RV)± 4.4%52%39%9%

with Chris Sununu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Undecided
Emerson College [92] February 21–22, 2019910 (RV)± 3.2%44%44%12%
YouGov/UMass Amherst [93] February 7–15, 2019600 (RV)± 4.8%45%42%10%

with Kelly Ayotte

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Undecided
YouGov/UMass Amherst [93] February 7–15, 2019600 (RV)± 4.8%41%36%20%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Saint Anselm College [56] August 15–17, 20201,042 (RV)± 3%49%44%2%4%
Saint Anselm College [94] Jun 13–16, 20201,072 (RV)± 3%46%43%2%8%
Saint Anselm College [95] Apr 23–27, 2020820 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%3%6%

Results

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020 [96]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) 450,778 56.63% +5.17%
Republican Bryant "Corky" Messner326,22940.99%−7.22%
Libertarian Justin O'Donnell18,4212.32%N/A
Write-in 4860.06%–0.27%
Total votes795,914 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic
Bryant Messner
Republican
Justin O'Donnell
Libertarian
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Belknap 18,70449.1518,53648.717652.01460.121680.4438,051
Carroll 17,67053.6114,69444.585781.75160.052,9769.0332,958
Cheshire 26,75063.0315,69036.971,1222.64330.0811,06026.0642,440
Coös 8,75253.577,22244.213622.2200.001,5309.3716,336
Grafton 34,04363.7718,09233.891,2122.27390.0715,95129.8853,386
Hillsborough 129,10056.5093,60740.975,6302.461370.0635,49315.53228,474
Merrimack 52,34358.7434,68738.922,0312.28520.0617,65619.8189,113
Rockingham 105,81853.7286,93744.144,1122.09940.0518,8819.59196,961
Strafford 44,41560.9426,46536.311,9472.67610.0817,95024.6372,888
Sullivan 13,18354.5810,29942.646622.7580.032,88411.9424,152
Totals450,77856.64326,22940.9918,4212.314860.06124,54915.65795,914

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Shaheen won both congressional districts. [97]

DistrictShaheenMessnerRepresentative
1st 56%42% Chris Pappas
2nd 57%40% Annie Kuster

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Poll conducted for Corky Messner.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Don Bolduc
  3. Poll sponsored by Lewandowski

Voter samples

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Some other candidate" with 0%
  3. "Someone else" with 4%
  4. O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  5. O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Other" and Undecided with 0%
  6. O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  7. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  8. O'Donnell (L) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  9. O'Donnell (L) and "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 8%
  10. O'Donnell (L) with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  11. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  12. O'Donnell (L) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  13. O'Donnell (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  14. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  15. O'Donnell (L) with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  16. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  17. "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  18. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 13%
  19. "Another candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 17%
  20. O'Donnell (L) with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  21. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 0%; Undecided with 10%
  22. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  23. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 17%
  24. Undecided with 11%

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