2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2008 November 2, 2010 2012  
  John Lynch (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee John Lynch John Stephen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote239,390205,433
Percentage52.6%45.1%

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Lynch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Stephen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%

Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Lynch
Democratic

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term. [1]

Contents

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove). [2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove). [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Lynch, incumbent Governor [4]
  • Timothy Robertson, state representative
  • Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 49,832 87.5
Democratic Timothy Robertson3,7716.6
Democratic Frank Sullivan3,3775.9
Total votes56,980 97.3

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
  • Jack Kimball, businessman [6]
  • John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner [7]
  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist [6]

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredJack
Kimball
John
Stephen
Karen
Testerman
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 201024%45%8%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 201015%26%5%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 201010%29%15%

Results

Results by county:
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Stephen-60-70%
Stephen-50-60%
Stephen-40-50% 2010 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Stephen–60–70%
  Stephen–50–60%
  Stephen–40–50%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Stephen 77,962 61.6
Republican Jack Kimball31,58124.9
Republican Karen Testerman12,70810.0
Republican Frank Emiro4,3943.5
Total votes126,645 96.7

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [11] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [12] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [13] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [15] Likely DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
John
Lynch (D)
John
Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 201051%45%
WMUR/UNH October 7–12, 201051%38%
American Research Group October 3–5, 201051%41%
Granite State Poll October 1, 201051%34%
American Research Group September 22–26, 201042%40%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 201048%46%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 201051%39%
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 201050%39%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 201051%34%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 201047%35%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 201047%36%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 201047%37%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 201050%35%
Granite State Poll January 27-February 3, 201050%30%
Hypothetical polling
With Kimball
Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)
Jack
Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 201052%29%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 201050%31%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 201047%35%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 201050%34%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 201051%32%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 201059%13%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 201051%32%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 200952%31%
With Morse
Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)
Chuck
Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 200951%29%
With Sununu
Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)
John
Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll September 25-October 2, 200950%37%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 200948%43%
With Testerman
Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)
Karen
Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 201052%28%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 201051%32%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 201047%29%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 201050%33%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 201054%28%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 201053%30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 240,346 52.63% -17.57%
Republican John Stephen205,61645.03%+17.43%
Libertarian John Babiarz10,0892.21%+0.02%
Write-in 537<0.01%N/A
Total votes456,588 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  2. "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
  3. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf [ dead link ]
  4. "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. 1 2 "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
  6. 1 2 John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
  7. "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  12. "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  13. "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  14. "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
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