2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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  John Lynch (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee John Lynch John Stephen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote239,390205,433
Percentage52.6%45.1%
2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Lynch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Stephen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Lynch
Democratic

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term. [1]

Contents

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove). [2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove). [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Lynch, incumbent Governor [4]
  • Timothy Robertson, state representative
  • Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 49,832 87.5
Democratic Timothy Robertson3,7716.6
Democratic Frank Sullivan3,3775.9
Total votes56,980 97.3

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
  • Jack Kimball, businessman [6]
  • John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner [7]
  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist [6]

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredJack
Kimball		John
Stephen		Karen
Testerman
Public Policy Polling [11] September 11–12, 201024%45%8%
Public Policy Polling [12] July 23–25, 201015%26%5%
Public Policy Polling [13] April 17–18, 201010%29%15%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Stephen-60-70% Stephen-50-60% Stephen-40-50% 2010 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Stephen–60–70%
  Stephen–50–60%
  Stephen–40–50%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Stephen 77,962 61.6
Republican Jack Kimball31,58124.9
Republican Karen Testerman12,70810.0
Republican Frank Emiro4,3943.5
Total votes126,645 96.7

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [14] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [15] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [16] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [18] Likely DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		John
Lynch (D)		John
Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports [19] October 27, 201051%45%
WMUR/UNH [20] October 7–12, 201051%38%
American Research Group [21] October 3–5, 201051%41%
Granite State Poll [22] October 1, 201051%34%
American Research Group [21] September 22–26, 201042%40%
Rasmussen Reports [23] September 15, 201048%46%
Public Policy Polling [24] September 11–12, 201051%39%
Rasmussen Reports [25] August 5, 201050%39%
Public Policy Polling [26] July 23–25, 201051%34%
Rasmussen Reports [27] May 26, 201047%35%
Public Policy Polling [28] April 17–18, 201047%36%
Rasmussen Reports [29] April 7, 201047%37%
Rasmussen Reports [30] March 8, 201050%35%
Granite State Poll [31] January 27-February 3, 201050%30%
Hypothetical polling

With Kimball

Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)		Jack
Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling [26] July 23–25, 201052%29%
Rasmussen Reports [27] May 26, 201050%31%
Public Policy Polling [28] April 17–18, 201047%35%
Rasmussen Reports [29] April 7, 201050%34%
Rasmussen Reports [30] March 8, 201051%32%
Research 2000 [32] February 1–3, 201059%13%
Rasmussen Reports [33] January 12, 201051%32%
Rasmussen Reports [34] September 14, 200952%31%

With Morse

Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)		Chuck
Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports [34] September 14, 200951%29%

With Sununu

Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)		John
Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll [35] September 25-October 2, 200950%37%
Rasmussen Reports [34] September 14, 200948%43%

With Testerman

Poll SourceDates AdministeredJohn
Lynch (D)		Karen
Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling [26] July 23–25, 201052%28%
Rasmussen Reports [27] May 26, 201051%32%
Public Policy Polling [28] April 17–18, 201047%29%
Rasmussen Reports [29] April 7, 201050%33%
Rasmussen Reports [30] March 8, 201054%28%
Rasmussen Reports [33] January 12, 201053%30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 240,346 52.63% −17.57%
Republican John Stephen205,61645.03%+17.43%
Libertarian John Babiarz10,0892.21%+0.02%
Write-in 537<0.01%N/A
Total votes456,588 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. ↑ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  2. ↑ "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
  3. ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf [ dead link ]
  4. ↑ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. 1 2 "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
  6. 1 2 John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
  7. ↑ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. ↑ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. ↑ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  12. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  13. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  14. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  19. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  20. ↑ WMUR/UNH
  21. 1 2 American Research Group
  22. ↑ Granite State Poll
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  24. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  25. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  26. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  27. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  28. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  29. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  30. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  31. ↑ Granite State Poll
  32. ↑ Research 2000
  33. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  34. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  35. ↑ Granite State Poll

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