2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2014 November 8, 2016 2018  
  GOV SUNUNU OFFICIAL PHOTO (cropped).jpg Colin Van Ostern SNHU 2016 closeup.jpg
Nominee Chris Sununu Colin Van Ostern
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote354,040337,589
Percentage48.84%46.57%

2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results by congressional district.svg
NH Governor 2016.svg
Sununu:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Van Ostern:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

Governor before election

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Chris Sununu
Republican

The 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

The primaries were held on September 13.

Incumbent Democratic governor Maggie Hassan was eligible to run for re-election to a third term in office, but she instead successfully ran for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Kelly Ayotte. [1] [2] [3] [4] In the general election, Republican nominee Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern and Libertarian state representative Max Abramson to become the first Republican governor of New Hampshire elected since 2002. With a margin of 2.27%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in North Carolina.

Background

Governor Maggie Hassan, the incumbent from the Democratic Party, declined to run for reelection, choosing to seek a U.S. Senate seat instead. Both major parties had multiple declared candidates, leading to primary elections that were held September 13, 2016.

New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly
Derek
Dextraze
Ian
Freeman
Steve
Marchand
Colin
Van Ostern
OtherUndecided
InsideSources/NH Journal [16] July 19–21, 2016444± 5.1%7%1%3%6%13%71%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University [17] May 25–28, 2016405± 4.9%5%2%12%6%74%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015458± 4.6%15%21%64%

Results

Results by county:
Van Ostern
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Van Ostern--60-70%
Van Ostern--50-60%
Van Ostern--40-50%
Van Ostern--30-40% 2016 NH GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
Van Ostern
  •   Van Ostern—60–70%
  •   Van Ostern—50–60%
  •   Van Ostern—40–50%
  •   Van Ostern—30–40%
Democratic primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 37,696 51.99
Democratic Steve Marchand 18,33825.29
Democratic Mark Connolly 14,84020.47
Democratic Ian Freeman1,0691.47
Democratic Derek Dextraze5570.77
Total votes72,500 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Frank Edelblut
  • 603 Alliance [28]
  • New Hampshire Liberty Alliance [29]
  • Fifty-seven current members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives: Chris Adams, Glen Aldrich, Keith Ammon, John Balcom, Steven Beaudoin, Rick Christie, James Coffey, Allen Cook, Susan Delemus, Dan Donovan, Eric Eastman, Tracy Emerick, Elizabeth Ferreira, Valerie Fraser, Harold French, Bart Fromuth, Dick Gordon, Linda Gould, Warren Groen, Joe Hannon, J.R. Hoell, Edith Hogan, Werner Horn, Ray Howard, Paul Ingbretson, Dan Itse, Tom Kaczynski, Joe Lachance, Don Lebrun, Don McClarren, Jim McConnell, Mark McLean, Carol McGuire, Dan McGuire, Josh Moore, Bill Ohm, Jeff Oligny, Jason Parent, Joe Pitre, Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien, Kimberly Rice, Eric Schleien, Carl Seidel, Tammy Simmons, Kathleen Souza, Greg Smith, James Spillane, Victoria Sullivan, Mike Sylvia, Dan Tamburello, Len Turcotte, Jordan Ulery, Peter Varney, Michael Vose, Joshua Whitehouse, Ted Wright, Kurt Wuelper [30]
  • The Conway Daily Sun [31]
Ted Gatsas
Chris Sununu

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Frank
Edelblut
Jeannie
Forrester
Ted
Gatsas
Jon
Lavoie
Chris
Sununu
OtherUndecided
NH Journal[ citation needed ]July 19–21, 2016619± 5.1%4%5%21%2%27%41%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University [17] May 25–28, 2016405± 4.9%0%7%10%44%3%36%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015454± 4.6%12%60%28%

Results

Results by county:
Sununu
Sununu--30-40%
Sununu--<30%
Edelblut
Edelblut--30-40%
Edelblut--40-50%
Forrester
Forrester--30-40%
Forrester--40-50% 2016 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
Sununu
  •   Sununu—30–40%
  •   Sununu—<30%
Edelblut
  •   Edelblut—30–40%
  •   Edelblut—40–50%
Forrester
  •   Forrester—30–40%
  •   Forrester—40–50%
Republican primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Chris Sununu 34,137 30.68
Republican Frank Edelblut 33,14929.79
Republican Ted Gatsas 22,84020.53
Republican Jeanie Forrester 19,71617.72
Republican John Lavoie1,4291.28
Total votes111,271 100.00

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Mike Gill, businessman [46]
  • Jilletta Jarvis, training project manager [47] [48]

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [49] TossupAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [50] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [51] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [52] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [53] TossupNovember 1, 2016
Governing [54] TossupOctober 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [55] October 28 – November 6, 2016November 6, 201643.2%44.4%12.4%Sununu +1.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [56] November 1–7, 2016696± 4.6%55%42%3%
WMUR/UNH [57] November 3–6, 2016707± 3.7%48%37%2%13%
SurveyMonkey [58] Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016672± 4.6%56%41%3%
WMUR/UNH [57] November 2–5, 2016645± 3.7%47%38%3%12%
WMUR/UNH [57] November 1–4, 2016588± 3.7%47%37%2%14%
WMUR/UNH [57] Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016515± 3.7%47%37%2%14%
SurveyMonkey [59] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016672± 4.6%54%42%4%
Suffolk University [60] Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016500± 4.4%37%41%6%15%
American Research Group [61] Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016600± 4.0%44%48%2%6%
WMUR/UNH [57] Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016466± 3.7%46%38%2%14%
WBUR/MassINC [62] Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016500 LV± 4.4%44%49%1%5%
43%45%<1%10%
UMass Lowell/7News [63] Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016695 LV± 4.3%43%47%5%4%
901 RV± 3.8%41%45%5%8%
SurveyMonkey [64] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016658± 4.6%54%42%4%
Public Policy Polling [65] Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016781± 3.5%47%44%9%
WMUR/UNH [57] Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016468± 3.7%43%40%3%14%
WBUR/MassINC [62] Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016500± 4.4%44%49%1%5%
43%45%10%
SurveyMonkey [66] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016635± 4.6%53%43%4%
WMUR/UNH [57] October 28–31, 2016513± 3.7%44%40%2%14%
SurveyMonkey [67] October 25–31, 2016659± 4.6%53%43%4%
WMUR/UNH [57] October 27–30, 2016463± 3.7%43%40%2%14%
WMUR/UNH [68] October 26–30, 2016641± 3.9%43%40%2%14%
WMUR/UNH [57] October 26–29, 2016516± 3.7%42%41%5%12%
NH JournalOctober 26–28, 2016408± 4.2%42%45%2%11%
Monmouth University [69] October 22–25, 2016401± 4.9%48%43%4%5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [70] October 20–24, 2016768 LV± 3.5%47%46%2%4%
1,020 RV± 3.1%47%46%2%5%
UMass Amherst/WBZ [71] October 17–21, 2016772± 4.5%44%43%6%7%
42%39%5%14%
WMUR/UNH [72] October 11–17, 2016770± 3.5%44%38%4%15%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [73] October 8–16, 2016569± 0.5%53%43%4%
WBUR/MassINC [74] October 10–12, 2016501± 4.4%47%44%2%8%
41%41%2%15%
7News/UMass Lowell [75] October 7–11, 2016517± 4.9%39%41%6%13%
Suffolk University [76] October 3–5, 2016500± 4.4%36%40%2%20%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Save the Children Action Network [77] Sept 29–Oct 4, 2016500± 4.3%44%44%6%6%
WBUR/MassINC [78] September 27–29, 2016502± 4.4%44%47%2%7%
41%44%2%11%
American Research Group [79] September 20–25, 2016522± 4.2%44%45%1%10%
Monmouth University [80] September 17–20, 2016400± 4.9%43%49%1%7%
Public Policy Polling [81] January 4–6, 20161,036± 3.0%35%39%26%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015990± 3.1%34%40%25%
Public Policy Polling [82] October 16–18, 2015880± 3.3%34%41%25%
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%32%39%29%
WMUR/UNH [84] July 7–20, 2015472± 4.5%26%36%37%
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%34%37%29%
Hypothetical polling

with Maggie Hassan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%48%39%13%
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%53%36%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%55%25%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%48%41%11%
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%52%35%13%

with Stefany Shaheen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Stefany
Shaheen (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [82] October 16–18, 2015880± 3.3%37%39%23%

with Chris Pappas

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Pappas (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%33%38%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Pappas (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%34%38%28%

with Terie Norelli

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terie
Norelli (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%33%39%29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terie
Norelli (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%34%39%27%

with Mark Connolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Frank
Edelblut (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [81] January 4–6, 20161,036± 3%31%24%45%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015990± 3.1%33%24%43%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [81] January 4–6, 20161,036± 3%36%38%25%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015990± 3.1%36%40%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Stefany
Shaheen (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [82] October 16–18, 2015880± 3.3%40%41%19%

with Jackie Cilley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%31%37%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%32%26%43%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Chris
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%36%37%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Frank
Edelblut (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [81] January 4–6, 20161,036± 3%30%25%45%
Public Policy Polling [18] November 30–December 2, 2015990± 3.1%30%26%44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [82] October 16–18, 2015880± 3.3%31%40%29%
Public Policy Polling [83] August 21–24, 2015841± 3.4%31%38%31%
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%31%37%32%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colin
Van Ostern (D)
Donnalee
Lozeau (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] April 9–13, 2015747± 3.6%31%27%42%

Results

2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [86]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Chris Sununu 354,040 48.84% +1.41%
Democratic Colin Van Ostern 337,58946.57%−5.81%
Libertarian Max Abramson 31,2434.31%N/A
Write-in 1,9910.28%+0.09%
Total votes724,863 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

CountySununu#Sununu%Van Ostern#Van Ostern%Abramson#Abramson%Scatter#Scatter%Total votesMargin
Belknap 18,79854.70%14,06940.94%1,4034.08%940.00%34,36413.76%
Carroll 15,19252.38%12,50343.29%1,1263.90%580.00%28,8799.09%
Cheshire 17,10742.25%21,47153.02%1,8024.45%1140.00%40,494-10.77%
Coos 7,42448.90%7,00646.14%7024.62%510.00%15,1832.76%
Grafton 19,68539.65%27,62155.64%2,2154.46%1220.00%49,643-15.99%
Hillsborough 103,81149.70%95,23145.59%9,1284.37%6980.00%208,8684.11%
Merrimack 37,29545.51%41,19550.26%3,2453.96%2220.00%81,957-4.75%
Rockingham 94,38553.52%74,07642.00%7,4994.25%4110.00%176,37111.52%
Strafford 29,57844.12%34,17350.97%3,1284.67%1640.00%67,043-6.85%
Sullivan 10,76548.80%10,24446.43%9954.51%570.00%22,0612.37%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Sununu won 1 of the 2 congressional districts, which elected a Democrat. [87]

DistrictSununuVan OsternRepresentative
1st 50%45% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 47%48% Annie Kuster

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
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