2016 United States Senate election in Vermont

2016 United States Senate election in Vermont

←  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  →

Nominee Patrick Leahy Scott Milne Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 192,243 103,637 Percentage 61.26% 33.03%

County results Municipality results Leahy:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90% Milne:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%

U.S. senator before election Patrick Leahy Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior member in the Senate, the longest-serving U.S. Senator from Vermont, and the first Democrat to be elected to a Senate seat in Vermont, won re-election to a record eighth term in office. ^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Cris Ericson, perennial candidate, later ran as Marijuana Party nominee (also ran for governor) ^[2]
• Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary results ^[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	62,412	89.15%
	Democratic	Cris Ericson	7,595	10.85%
Total votes			70,007	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and nominee for governor in 2014 ^{[4] [5]}

Liberty Union primary

This election was the last in which Diamondstone ran prior to his death in 2017. Diamondstone had run for Vermont statewide office in every biennial election since 1970.

Candidates

Declared

• Peter Diamondstone, LU party co-founder, lawyer, and perennial candidate ^[6]

Other candidacies

Declared

• Jerry Trudell, independent candidate, environmental activist, candidate for House of Representatives in 2014 ^[7]
• Cris Ericson, Marijuana Party perennial candidate, previously sought Democratic nomination

General election

Candidates

• Patrick Leahy (D)
• Scott Milne (R)
• Jerry Trudell (I)
• Peter Diamondstone (LU)
• Cris Ericson (MJ)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [8]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [10]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos [11]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [12]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Debates

Dates	Location	Leahy	Milne	Ericson	Trudell	Diamondstone	Link
October 18, 2016	Burlington, Vermont	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patrick Leahy (D)	Scott Milne (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey [14]	November 1–7, 2016	454	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey [15]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	447	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey [16]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	449	± 4.6%	69%	28%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey [17]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	424	± 4.6%	65%	32%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey [18]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	428	± 4.6%	64%	34%	—	2%
SurveyMonkey [19]	October 25–31, 2016	436	± 4.6%	64%	33%	—	3%
Braun Research/WCAX [20]	October 19–22, 2016	603	± 4.0%	64%	29%	3%	5%
Castleton University [21]	September 29 – October 14, 2016	579	± 3.9%	59%	22%	7%	10%
Emerson College [22]	September 2–5, 2016	600	± 3.9%	57%	34%	4%	5%
Castleton University [23]	July 11–23, 2016	637	± 3.9%	62%	23%	1%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2016 ^{[24] [25]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	192,243	61.26%	−3.10%
	Republican	Scott Milne	103,637	33.03%	+2.10%
	Marijuana	Cris Ericson	9,156	2.92%	+1.76%
	Independent	Jerry Trudell	5,223	1.66%	N/A
	Liberty Union	Peter Diamondstone	3,241	1.03%	+0.42%
	Write-in		309	0.10%	N/A
Total votes			313,809	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County Patrick Leahy Democratic Scott Milne Republican Various candidates Other parties # % # % # % Addison 11,882 62.44% 6,294 33.08% 853 4.38% Bennington 10,246 59.4% 5,527 32.04% 1,476 8.56% Caledonia 7,348 52.21% 5,910 41.99% 816 5.8% Chittenden 57,338 69.21% 21,654 26.14% 3,856 4.65% Essex 1,324 45.8% 1,356 46.9% 211 7.29% Franklin 11,948 55.63% 8,526 39.7% 1,004 4.67% Grand Isle 2,363 57.49% 1,556 37.86% 191 4.65% Lamoille 7,902 61.89% 4,163 32.61% 702 5.5% Orange 8,073 55.11% 5,823 39.75% 754 5.14% Orleans 6,033 50.39% 5,199 43.42% 741 6.19% Rutland 15,404 52.29% 12,492 42.41% 1,562 5.3% Washington 19,628 62.94% 9,914 31.79% 1,642 5.27% Windham 14,720 66.01% 5,410 24.26% 2,171 9.73% Windsor 18,034 60.52% 9,813 32.93% 1,950 6.55% Totals 192,243 61.26% 103,637 33.03% 17,929 5.71% Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Essex (largest town: Lunenburg)

References

1. Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
2. O'Gorman, Josh (May 27, 2016). "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". The Rutland Herald. Archived from the original on May 30, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
3. "Vermont Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
4. Heintz, Paul (October 5, 2015). "Scott Milne Considers Challenging Patrick Leahy". Seven Days . Retrieved October 7, 2015.
5. Gram, Dave (May 26, 2016). "Milne hopes to unseat Sen. Leahy". The Burlington Free Press . Retrieved May 27, 2016.
6. "Candidates register to appear on ballots". The Burlington Free Press . Retrieved June 5, 2016.
7. "Jerry Trudell for Senate VT". Archived from the original on October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
8. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
9. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
10. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
11. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
12. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
13. Full debate - C-SPAN
14. SurveyMonkey
15. SurveyMonkey
16. SurveyMonkey
17. SurveyMonkey
18. SurveyMonkey
19. SurveyMonkey
20. Braun Research/WCAX Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
21. Castleton University
22. Emerson College
23. Castleton University
24. "Vermont Election Results". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved January 29, 2017.^{[ dead link ]}
25. "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". Vermont Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on May 28, 2019. Retrieved December 28, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Patrick Leahy (D) for Senate
• (MJ) for Senate
• Scott Milne (R) for Senate
• Jerry Trudell (I) for Senate

Debates

• Complete video of October 18, 2016 debate