2016 Indiana gubernatorial election

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2016 Indiana gubernatorial election
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  Holcomb Official Headshot (cropped).jpg John Gregg 2015 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Eric Holcomb John R. Gregg
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Suzanne Crouch Christina Hale
Popular vote1,397,3961,235,503
Percentage51.38%45.42%
2016 Indiana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
IN Governor 2016.svg
Holcomb:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Gregg:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
Governor before election

Mike Pence
Republican

Elected Governor

Eric Holcomb
Republican

The 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 3, 2016. Republican lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb won the race with 51.4% of the vote.

Contents

Incumbent Republican governor Mike Pence was running for reelection to a second term in office until July 15, 2016, when then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate. [1] As Pence was barred by Indiana law from simultaneously running for both offices, he subsequently withdrew from the gubernatorial election. [2] Pence went on to be elected Vice President of the United States. He was replaced on the ballot for governor by his former running mate, incumbent lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb, who was selected by the Indiana Republican State Committee as the nominee on July 26, 2016. [3] Holcomb later selected State Auditor Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was confirmed at a subsequent meeting of the Indiana Republican State Committee later that day. [3] [4]

John Gregg, the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, was the Democratic nominee. Gregg previously ran for Governor in 2012, but was defeated by Pence.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Pence (incumbent) 815,699 100.00%
Total votes815,699 100.00%

Republican State Committee selection

On July 15, 2016, Donald Trump announced that Pence would be his running mate as vice president in the 2016 presidential election. Under Indiana law, Pence was unable to run for both governor and vice president simultaneously; he therefore withdrew from the gubernatorial election, creating a vacancy on the Republican ticket. On July 26, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, Jeff Cardwell, announced that Eric Holcomb had been nominated by the Indiana Republican State Committee to replace Pence on the ballot for governor. The vote totals were not released. Holcomb later selected Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was then confirmed by the Committee at a meeting later that day. [3] [4]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

John Gregg

Politicians

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John R. Gregg 547,375 100.00
Total votes547,375 100.00

Libertarian Party convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Rex Bell, businessman [27]
  • Jim Wallace [27]

Nominated

  • Rex Bell, businessman [27]
    • Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [28] TossupAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [29] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [30] Tilt RNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Lean D (flip)November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [32] TossupNovember 1, 2016
Governing [33] TossupOctober 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Eric
Holcomb (R)		John
Gregg (D)		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [34] October 27 – November 3, 2016November 3, 201640.7%44.0%15.3%Gregg +3.3%

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Eric
Holcomb (R)		John
Gregg (D)		Rex
Bell (L)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey [35] November 1–7, 20161,700± 4.6%47%49%–4%
SurveyMonkey [36] October 31 – November 6, 20161,383± 4.6%46%49%–5%
WTHR/Howey [37] November 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%42%42%5%11%
SurveyMonkey [38] October 28 – November 3, 2016923± 4.6%47%47%–6%
SurveyMonkey [39] October 27 – November 2, 2016790± 4.6%48%47%–5%
Gravis Marketing [40] October 30 – November 1, 2016399± 4.9%38%42%4%16%
SurveyMonkey [41] October 26 – November 1, 2016638± 4.6%49%47%–4%
SurveyMonkey [42] October 25–31, 2016674± 4.6%47%48%–5%
Monmouth University [43] October 27–30, 2016402± 4.9%42%48%4%5%
Gravis Marketing [44] October 22–24, 2016596± 2.3%38%42%4%16%
Ball State University (PSRAI) [45] October 10–16, 2016544± 4.8%43%48%––
Monmouth University [46] October 11–13, 2016402± 4.9%38%50%4%7%
BK Strategies (R-Holcomb) [47] October 11–13, 2016800± 3.5%42%42%3%13%
WTHR/Howey [48] October 3–5, 2016600± 4.0%39%41%5%15%
WTHR/Howey [49] September 6–8, 2016600± 4.0%35%40%6%19%
Monmouth University [50] August 13–16, 2016403± 4.9%42%41%4%13%
Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg) [51] August 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%39%46%6%9%
The Tarrance Group [52] July 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%34%42%–24%
Hypothetical polling

with Mike Pence

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Pence (R)		John
Gregg (D)		OtherUndecided
Bellwether Research [53] May 11–15, 2016600± 4.0%40%36%—24%
WTHR/Howey [54] April 18–21, 2016500± 4.3%49%45%1%5%
Bellwether Research [55] May 29–June 3, 2015800± 3.5%40%41%—19%
Bellwether Research [56] April 12–14, 2015607± 4.0%43%37%—21%
GQR Research [57] April 7–9, 2015500± 4.4%47%47%—6%

with Susan Brooks

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Brooks (R)		John
Gregg (D)		OtherUndecided
The Tarrance Group [52] July 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%36%41%—23%

with Todd Rokita

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Rokita (R)		John
Gregg (D)		OtherUndecided
The Tarrance Group [52] July 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%36%41%—23%
Public Opinion Strategies [58] July 16–18, 2016600± 4.0%45%43%—12%

with Baron Hill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Pence (R)		Baron
Hill (D)		Undecided
Bellwether Research [59] April 12–14, 2015607± 4%43%36%21%

with Glenda Ritz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Pence (R)		Glenda
Ritz (D)		OtherUndecided
Bellwether Research [55] May 29–June 3, 2015800± 3.5%42%42%—16%
Bellwether Research [60] April 12–14, 2015607± 4%42%39%—18%

Results

Holcomb won with 51.4% of the votes, with Gregg taking 45.4%, and Libertarian Rex Bell finishing with 3.2%. [61]

2016 Indiana gubernatorial election [62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Eric Holcomb/Suzanne Crouch 1,397,396 51.38% +1.89%
Democratic John R. Gregg/Christina Hale 1,235,50345.42%−1.14%
Libertarian Rex Bell87,0253.20%−0.75%
Write-in 440.00%0.00%
Total votes2,719,968 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Holcomb won 7 of 9 congressional districts. [63]

DistrictHolcombGreggRepresentative
1st 36%62% Pete Visclosky
2nd 53%43% Jackie Walorski
3rd 60%37% Marlin Stutzman
4th 58%39% Todd Rokita
5th 52%45% Susan Brooks
6th 59%36% Luke Messer
7th 34%63% André Carson
8th 52%45% Larry Bucshon
9th 56%41% Todd Young

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. 1 2 "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP" . Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Mike Pence officially withdraws from Indiana governor's race". WDRB.com. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on November 10, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  3. 1 2 3 Eason, Brian; Tony, Cook; Briggs, James (July 26, 2016). "Indiana GOP panel nominates Eric Holcomb for governor". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved July 26, 2016.
  4. 1 2 3 "Holcomb introduces Crouch as his running mate in governor's race". Fox 59. August 1, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  5. ↑ Weidenbener, Lesley (April 22, 2015). "Brooks to run for House reelection, not Senate". The Statehouse File. Retrieved April 22, 2015.
  6. 1 2 Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill . Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  7. 1 2 Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". kokomoperspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.[ permanent dead link ]
  8. ↑ Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune . Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  9. 1 2 "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Pennsylvania Secretary of State. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Holcomb, Rokita, Brooks in; Bosma out of race to be GOP gubernatorial nominee". Indiana Business Journal. July 15, 2016. Archived from the original on July 16, 2016. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  11. ↑ Osowski, Zach (July 19, 2016). "Tomes says despite odds, "It's in my heart to run" for governor". Evansville Courier & Press . Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  12. ↑ LoBianco, Tom (April 30, 2015). "Source: Democrat John Gregg set to announce governor bid". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved April 30, 2015.
  13. ↑ "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale as Running Mate | News - Indiana Public Media". Archived from the original on May 26, 2016. Retrieved May 25, 2016.
  14. ↑ Cook, Tony; Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Glenda Ritz drops out of governor's race". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  15. ↑ Carden, Dan (August 17, 2015). "Tallian drops out of governor's race". The Times of Northwest Indiana . Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  16. 1 2 "Bayh not running for governor in 2016". nwi.com. September 13, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
  17. ↑ Blasko, Erin (February 25, 2014). "Buttigieg: 'Zero interest' in governor's seat". South Bend Tribune . Retrieved February 23, 2015.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 "36 Indiana Mayors Endorse John Gregg for Governor". Gregg for Governor. August 13, 2015. Archived from the original on August 16, 2015. Retrieved August 14, 2015.
  19. ↑ Spehler, Dan (February 13, 2015). "Potential candidate for governor talks education, healthcare". WXIN . Retrieved February 20, 2015.
  20. ↑ Hayden, Maureen (December 3, 2014). "Former Congressman Hill mulls run for governor". News and Tribune . Retrieved December 3, 2014.
  21. ↑ Cahn, Emily (May 15, 2015). "Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 17, 2015. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
  22. ↑ Carden, Dan (May 27, 2015). "Pelath rules out run for governor". The Times of Northwest Indiana . Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  23. ↑ Schneider, Chelsea (August 7, 2015). "Long-time Bayh aide mulling run for governor". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  24. ↑ Schneider, Chelsea (September 21, 2015). "Tom Sugar will not run for governor". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved September 21, 2015.
  25. ↑ "Former Indiana governor candidate Glenda Ritz lends support to John Gregg". The News-Sentinel. Associated Press. August 11, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.[ dead link ]
  26. ↑ "Indiana State AFL-CIO Endorses John Gregg for Governor". Indiana State AFL-CIO. August 17, 2015. Archived from the original on August 22, 2015. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  27. 1 2 3 Staff (April 28, 2016). "Libertarian Party of Indiana nominates Rex Bell for Governor". Greensburg Daily News. Retrieved May 13, 2016.
  28. ↑ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  29. ↑ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  30. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  31. ↑ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  32. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  33. ↑ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  34. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  35. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  36. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  37. ↑ WTHR/Howey
  38. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  39. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  40. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  41. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  42. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  43. ↑ Monmouth University
  44. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  45. ↑ Ball State University (PSRAI)
  46. ↑ Monmouth University
  47. ↑ BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)
  48. ↑ WTHR/Howey [ permanent dead link ]
  49. ↑ WTHR/Howey Archived October 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  50. ↑ Monmouth University
  51. ↑ Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)
  52. 1 2 3 The Tarrance Group
  53. ↑ Bellwether Research
  54. ↑ WTHR/Howey
  55. 1 2 Bellwether Research
  56. ↑ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  57. ↑ GQR Research
  58. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies
  59. ↑ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  60. ↑ Bellwether Research Archived April 16, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  61. ↑ Indiana Secretary of State Election Results
  62. ↑ "Indiana Secretary of State Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 4, 2017.
  63. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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