2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Last updated

2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout62.36% [1]
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Gary Johnson June 2016.jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld
Electoral vote500
Popular vote385,234319,66774,541
Percentage48.26%40.04%9.34%

New Mexico Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
New Mexico 2016.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color New Mexico 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College. [2]

Contents

Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state, and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980. [3] Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.

This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, the other instances being 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, the state did vote for the winner of the popular vote. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Los Alamos County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Sandoval County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:

New Mexico Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 111,33451.53%18927
Bernie Sanders 104,74148.47%16016
Uncommitted000
Total216,075100%34943
Source: The Green Papers , New Mexico State Board of Elections,
New Mexico Democratic Delegates Allocation

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county:
Donald Trump
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2016 NM GOP Presidential primary.svg
Republican primary results by county:
  Donald Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.

New Mexico Republican primary, June 7, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump73,90870.64%24024
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)13,92513.31%000
John Kasich (withdrawn)7,9257.57%000
Ben Carson (withdrawn)3,8303.66%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)3,5313.37%000
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)1,5081.44%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:104,627100.00%24024
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Polling

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016 [4]

Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016 [5]

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the RealClearPolitics average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45.3% to 40.3% on the day of the election, with Gary Johnson at 9.3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2.3%. [6] Johnson's highest level of support was 25% in a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll in early September. [7]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times [8] Safe DNovember 6, 2016
CNN [9] Safe DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [10] Likely DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [11] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [12] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Likely DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [14] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Fox News [15] Lean DNovember 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 385,234 48.26% −4.73
Republican 319,66740.04%−2.80
Libertarian 74,5419.34%+5.79
Green 9,8791.24%+0.90
Better for America
5,8250.73%N/A
Constitution
1,5140.19%+0.06
Socialism and Liberation 1,1840.15%N/A
American Delta 4750.06%N/A
Total votes798,319 100.00%
Democratic win

By county

CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %# %
Bernalillo 143,41752.22%94,69834.48%29,68210.81%6,8652.50%48,71917.74%274,662
Catron 42720.84%1,46471.45%1115.42%472.29%-1,037-50.61%2,049
Chaves 5,53427.30%12,87263.50%1,6097.94%2561.26%-7,338-36.20%20,271
Cibola 3,74146.40%3,19539.63%97012.03%1571.95%5466.77%8,063
Colfax 2,12939.93%2,58548.48%5279.88%911.71%-456-8.55%5,332
Curry 3,12123.34%9,03567.58%9737.28%2411.80%-5,914-44.24%13,370
De Baca 19321.21%62068.13%899.78%80.88%-427-46.92%910
Dona Ana 37,94753.71%25,37435.92%5,4717.74%1,8562.63%12,57317.79%70,648
Eddy 5,03325.59%13,14766.85%1,2756.48%2121.08%-8,114-41.26%19,667
Grant 6,27648.99%5,28841.28%8997.02%3482.72%9887.71%12,811
Guadalupe 97053.09%59532.57%23813.03%241.31%37520.52%1,827
Harding 15629.60%31159.01%5510.44%50.95%-155-29.41%527
Hidalgo 78441.88%91048.61%1377.32%412.19%-126-6.73%1,872
Lea 3,93022.19%12,49570.55%1,0986.20%1891.07%-8,565-48.36%17,712
Lincoln 2,33126.19%5,89666.23%5606.29%1151.29%-3,565-40.04%8,902
Los Alamos 5,56251.10%3,35930.86%1,51213.89%4524.15%2,20320.24%10,885
Luna 3,19543.80%3,47847.68%4816.59%1411.93%-283-3.88%7,295
McKinley 13,57662.55%5,10423.52%2,41211.11%6112.82%8,47239.03%21,703
Mora 1,53662.93%66527.24%1947.95%461.88%87135.69%2,441
Otero 6,12430.53%11,88759.26%1,6138.04%4362.17%-5,763-28.73%20,060
Quay 1,01728.47%2,21261.93%2998.37%441.23%-1,195-33.46%3,572
Rio Arriba 9,59264.47%3,59924.19%1,4259.58%2621.76%5,99340.28%14,878
Roosevelt 1,45424.44%3,88465.28%4828.10%1302.18%-2,430-40.84%5,950
San Juan 12,86527.90%27,94660.61%4,2009.11%10992.38%-15,081-32.71%46,110
San Miguel 7,28567.76%2,31321.51%9158.61%2382.21%4,97246.25%10,751
Sandoval 27,70744.91%25,90541.99%6,65710.79%1,4212.30%1,8022.92%61,690
Santa Fe 50,79371.10%14,33220.06%4,3626.11%1,9472.73%36,46151.04%71,434
Sierra 1,61231.11%3,01058.10%4428.53%1172.26%-1,398-26.99%5,181
Socorro 3,31348.24%2,61638.09%80211.68%1371.99%69710.15%6,868
Taos 10,66869.91%2,72717.87%1,1797.73%6864.50%7,94152.04%15,260
Torrance 1,78528.23%3,71458.73%69210.94%1332.10%-1,929-30.50%6,324
Union 32018.80%1,21671.45%1347.87%321.88%-896-52.65%1,702
Valencia 10,84139.29%13,21547.89%3,04611.04%4901.78%-2,374-8.60%27,592
Total385,23448.26%319,66740.04%74,5419.34%18,8772.36%65,5678.22%798,319
New Mexico County Swing 2016.svg
New Mexico County Trend 2016.svg
New Mexico County Flips 2016.svg
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[17]

By congressional district

Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts. [18]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st 35%52% Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd 50%40% Steve Pearce
3rd 37%52% Ben Ray Luján

See also

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References

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  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
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  5. Coleman, Michael (November 5, 2016). "Journal Poll: Clinton still ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
  6. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton".
  7. "New poll shows how Trump-Clinton matchup is redrawing the electoral map". Washington Post. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
  8. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times . November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
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  12. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
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  14. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. New Mexico Secretary of State (November 25, 2016). "2016 General Election Official Results – Federal" . Retrieved November 14, 2021.
  17. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post . ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved September 1, 2020.
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