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This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Given the large number of potential candidates, the scores of certain low-polling and infrequently-polled candidates have been combined within the "other" column; their exact scores may be viewed by viewing the footnotes associated with each poll. The polls included are among Democrats or Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and do not include Republican-leaning independents. The statewide polls are ordered by the scheduled date of the state's primary or caucus. Open-ended polls are included and marked with an asterisk (*), but closed-ended versions of such polls are listed where possible. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version used for debate qualification is prioritized, then the version among likely voters, then registered voters, then adults.
The Democratic National Committee has determined that candidates may qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates either by polling at 1% or higher in at least three national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) polls sponsored or conducted by designated organizations (in different regions if by the same organization) published after January 1, 2019, up until June 12, 2019, or by a fundraising threshold requiring at least 65,000 unique donors with at least 200 in 20 different states. Should more than 20 candidates meet either threshold, then candidates meeting both thresholds will be given highest priority for entry into the debates, followed by those with the highest polling average and those with the most donors. The pollsters and sponsors of polls designated for consideration by the DNC are the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register , Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal , Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times , National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today , The Wall Street Journal , The Washington Post , and Winthrop University. [1] Open-ended polls do not count towards the polling threshold. [2]
For the third and fourth primary debates, candidates will be required to meet both polling and fundraising thresholds, with the prior considering only polls between June 28 and August 28, 2019, and increased to 4 qualifying polls at 2% support, now excluding surveys sponsored by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Reuters; the latter requirement has also been increased, to 130,000 unique donors with at least 400 in 20 different states. [3]
Individuals who have been included in national Democratic primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Stacey Abrams, Michael Avenatti, Sherrod Brown, Hillary Clinton, Mark Cuban, Andrew Cuomo, Al Franken, Eric Garcetti, Tim Kaine, Jason Kander, Joe Kennedy III, John Kerry, Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Howard Schultz, Oprah Winfrey, and Mark Zuckerberg.
The following Morning Consult [4] weekly poll archive [5] [6] [7] graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each candidate in the early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) since February 2019.
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
The following Morning Consult [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each candidate in the March 3, 2020 Super Tuesday states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia) since January 7, 2020.
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
The following dates reflect either the confirmed or expected dates of Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2020. Those for contests in U.S. territories with no date yet set are based on dates estimated by The Green Papers based on past years. The pledged delegate numbers listed below are based on the presidential votes in 2008, 2012, and 2016, as well as the number of electoral votes of each state in 2020. The number of DNC members and distinguished party leaders in the count of unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates is based on the 2016 Democratic National Convention, while the number of unpledged officeholders (governors, members of Congress, and their equivalents in non-state jurisdictions) reflects their current total. The numbers of pledged delegates do not yet account for delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering. [16] [17] [18]
States listed with a lavender background and an asterisk (*) do not yet have a date set by existing statute. States with a light yellow background and a dagger (†) are set to shift their primary or caucus date following the expected passage of legislation moving the dates of their contests. If not already listed as such, the date to which the contest is expected to be moved is listed in parentheses. Party-run primaries (also described as either a firehouse primary or caucus in some jurisdictions) are listed with two asterisks (**). [16] [17] [18]
Date | State/territory | Type | Eligibility | P | U | T |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Feb 3 | Iowa | Caucus | Closed | 41 | 8 | 49 |
Feb 11 | New Hampshire | Primary | Mixed | 24 | 9 | 33 |
Feb 22 | Nevada | Caucus | Closed | 36 | 12 | 48 |
Feb 29 | South Carolina | Primary | Open | 54 | 9 | 63 |
Mar 3 | Alabama | Primary | Open | 52 | 9 | 61 |
American Samoa* | Caucus | Open | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
Arkansas | Primary | Open | 31 | 5 | 36 | |
California | Primary | Mixed | 416 | 79 | 495 | |
Colorado | Primary | Mixed | 67 | 13 | 80 | |
Maine | Primary | Closed | 24 | 8 | 32 | |
Massachusetts | Primary | Mixed | 91 | 23 | 114 | |
Minnesota | Primary | Closed | 75 | 17 | 92 | |
North Carolina | Primary | Mixed | 110 | 12 | 122 | |
Oklahoma | Primary | Mixed | 37 | 5 | 42 | |
Tennessee | Primary | Open | 64 | 9 | 73 | |
Texas | Primary | Closed | 228 | 34 | 262 | |
Utah | Primary | Mixed | 29 | 6 | 35 | |
Vermont | Primary | Open | 16 | 7 | 23 | |
Virginia | Primary | Open | 99 | 25 | 124 | |
Mar 3–10 | Democrats Abroad | Caucus** | Open | 13 | 4 | 17 |
Mar 10 | Idaho | Primary | Closed | 20 | 5 | 25 |
Michigan | Primary | Open | 125 | 22 | 147 | |
Mississippi | Primary | Open | 36 | 5 | 41 | |
Missouri | Primary | Open | 68 | 10 | 78 | |
North Dakota | Caucus** | Open | 14 | 4 | 18 | |
Washington | Primary | Closed | 89 | 18 | 107 | |
Mar 14 | Northern Marianas* | Caucus | Closed | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Mar 17 | Arizona | Primary | Closed | 67 | 11 | 78 |
Florida | Primary | Closed | 219 | 29 | 248 | |
Illinois | Primary | Open | 155 | 29 | 184 | |
Apr 7 | Wisconsin | Primary | Open | 84 | 13 | 90 |
Apr 10 | Alaska | Primary** | Closed | 15 | 4 | 18 |
Apr 17 | Wyoming | Caucus | Closed | 13 | 4 | 17 |
Apr 28 | Ohio | Primary | Mixed | 136 | 17 | 153 |
May 2 | Guam* | Caucus | Closed | 7 | 5 | 11 |
Kansas | Primary** | Closed | 39 | 6 | 39 | |
May 12 | Nebraska | Primary | Mixed | 29 | 4 | 29 |
May 19 | Oregon | Primary | Closed | 61 | 14 | 66 |
May 22 | Hawaii | Primary** | Closed | 24 | 9 | 31 |
Jun 2 | Delaware | Primary | Closed | 21 | 11 | 28 |
District of Columbia† | Primary | Closed | 20 | 26 | 43 | |
Indiana | Primary | Open | 82 | 7 | 77 | |
Maryland | Primary | Closed | 96 | 23 | 102 | |
Montana | Primary | Open | 19 | 6 | 22 | |
New Mexico | Primary | Closed | 34 | 11 | 40 | |
Pennsylvania | Primary | Closed | 186 | 23 | 176 | |
Rhode Island | Primary | Mixed | 26 | 9 | 30 | |
South Dakota | Primary | Mixed | 16 | 5 | 19 | |
Jun 6 | Virgin Islands* | Caucus | Closed | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Jun 9 | Georgia | Primary | Open | 105 | 15 | 120 |
West Virginia | Primary | Mixed | 28 | 6 | 30 | |
Jun 23 | Kentucky | Primary | Closed | 54 | 6 | 52 |
New York† | Primary | Closed | 273 | 46 | 270 | |
Jul 7 | New Jersey | Primary | Mixed | 126 | 21 | 128 |
Jul 11 | Louisiana | Primary | Closed | 54 | 7 | 57 |
Jul 12 | Puerto Rico | Primary | Open | 51 | 8 | 59 |
Aug 11 | Connecticut | Primary | Closed | 60 | 15 | 64 |
N/A | Unassigned | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
Total delegates | 3,979 | 765 | 4,744 |
The Iowa Democratic caucus was held on February 3, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Amy Klobuchar | Andrew Yang | Tom Steyer | Other | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] |
270 to Win [19] | Feb 3, 2020 | Jan 22 – Feb 2, 2020 | 22.6% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% [lower-alpha 2] | 5.6% |
RealClear Politics [20] | Feb 3, 2020 | Jan 20 – Feb 2, 2020 | 23.0% | 19.3% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% [lower-alpha 3] | 7.6% |
FiveThirtyEight [21] | Feb 3, 2020 | until Feb 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 22.2% | 20.7% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% [lower-alpha 5] | 6.6% |
Average | 22.6% | 19.4% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% [lower-alpha 6] | 6.6% |
The results of a final poll from The Des Moines Register were not released as scheduled on February 1, after an interviewee complained that Pete Buttigieg was not given as a poll option during their interview, with the omission reportedly attributed to human error. As the polling firm was unable to determine whether the mistake was an isolated incident or not, pollster Ann Selzer decided to withhold the results of the poll altogether, marking the first time in 76 years that the final pre-caucus poll was not released by the Register. [22] [23] The poll was later leaked on Twitter, with results confirmed by FiveThirtyEight showing Sanders in the lead with 22%, followed by Warren with 18%, Buttigieg with 16% and Biden with 13%. [24]
Polling from December 1, 2019, to February 3, 2020 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
Emerson College [25] | Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 21% | 15% | 1% | 11% | 28% | 4% | 14% | 5% | 2% | – |
Data for Progress [26] | Jan 28 – Feb 2, 2020 | 2,394 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 24% [lower-alpha 8] | 22% | – | – | 28% | – | 25% | – | – | – |
18% | 18% | 2% | 9% | 22% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 2% [lower-alpha 9] | – | ||||
YouGov/CBS News [27] (MRP) | Jan 22–31, 2020 | 1,835 (RV) | ± 3% | 25% | 21% | [lower-alpha 10] | 5% | 25% | [lower-alpha 10] | 16% | [lower-alpha 10] | [lower-alpha 10] | [lower-alpha 10] |
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America [28] | Jan 28–30, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 46% [lower-alpha 11] | – | – | – | 40% | – | – | – | – | 14% |
15% | 19% | 3% | 11% | 17% | 3% | 15% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 12] | 12% | ||||
American Research Group [29] | Jan 27–30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 17% | 9% | 2% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 15% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 13] | 6% |
Civiqs/Data for Progress [30] | Jan 26–29, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% [lower-alpha 14] | 18% | 1% | 0% | 31% | 2% | 25% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 15] | 2% |
15% | 15% | 2% | 8% | 28% | 2% | 21% | 5% | 0% [lower-alpha 16] | 2% | ||||
Park Street Strategies [31] | Jan 24–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | 17% | 1% | 12% | 18% | 4% | 17% | 5% | <1% [lower-alpha 17] | 6% |
Monmouth University [32] | Jan 23–27, 2020 | 544 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 29% [lower-alpha 18] | 20% | – | – | 25% | – | 19% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 19] | 6% |
22% [lower-alpha 20] | 17% | – | 12% | 22% | – | 16% | 5% | <1% [lower-alpha 21] | 6% | ||||
23% | 16% | 1% | 10% | 21% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 1% [lower-alpha 22] | 5% | ||||
Civiqs/Iowa State University [33] | Jan 23–27, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 15% | 17% | 2% | 11% | 24% | 4% | 19% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 23] | 3% [lower-alpha 24] |
Emerson College [34] | Jan 23–26, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 13% | 30% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 25] | – |
Suffolk University/USA Today [35] | Jan 23–26, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25.4% | 17.6% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 18.6% | 2.2% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 13.6% [lower-alpha 26] | – |
Change Research/Crooked Media [36] | Jan 22–26, 2020 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 22% [lower-alpha 27] | 23% | – | – | 30% | – | 20% | – | – | 5% |
18% | 19% | 1% | 10% | 27% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 28] | – | ||||
Siena College/New York Times [37] | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 23% [lower-alpha 29] | 23% | – | – | 30% | – | 19% | – | – | 8% [lower-alpha 30] |
17% | 18% | 1% | 8% | 25% | 3% | 15% | 3% | 1% [lower-alpha 31] | 8% | ||||
Morningside College [38] | Jan 17–23, 2020 | 253 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 19% | 18% | 3% | 12% | 15% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 32] | 4% |
YouGov/CBS News [39] | Jan 16–23, 2020 | 1401 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 25% | 22% | 0% | 7% | 26% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 33] | 1% |
Civiqs/Data for Progress [40] [ permanent dead link ] | Jan 19–21, 2020 | 590 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 17% | 19% | 2% | 6% | 24% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 0% [lower-alpha 34] | 5% |
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America [41] | Jan 15–18, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 24% | 16% | 1% | 11% | 14% | 4% | 18% | 3% | 2% [lower-alpha 35] | – |
Neighbourhood Research and Media/Breitbart [42] | Jan 14–17, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 23% | 17% | – [lower-alpha 36] | 11% | 10% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 6% [lower-alpha 37] | 13% |
Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University [43] | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% [lower-alpha 38] | 25% | – | – | 24% | – | 16% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 39] | 4% |
24% | 17% | 2% | 8% | 18% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 4% [lower-alpha 40] | 5% | ||||
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [44] | January 2–8, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 15% | 16% | 2% | 6% | 20% | 2% | 17% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 41] | 11% |
YouGov/CBS News [45] | Dec 27, 2019 – Jan 3, 2020 | 953 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 23% | 23% | 1% | 7% | 23% | 2% | 16% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 42] | 1% |
KG Polling [46] | Dec 19–23, 2019 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 24% | 12% | – | 5% | 31% | – | 13% | 10% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 43] |
Civiqs/Iowa State University [47] | Dec 12–16, 2019 | 632 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 15% | 24% | 3% | 4% | 21% | 2% | 18% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 44] | 4% |
Emerson College [48] | Dec 7–10, 2019 | 325 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 23% | 18% | 2% | 10% | 22% | 3% | 12% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 45] | – |
Harris withdraws from the race |
Polling during November 2019 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
Civiqs/Iowa State University [49] | Nov 15–19, 2019 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 12% | 26% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 18% | 2% | 19% | 4% | 6% [lower-alpha 46] | 3% |
Des Moines Register/CNN [50] | Nov 8–13, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 15% | 25% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 3% | 16% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 47] | 5% |
YouGov/CBS News [51] | Nov 6–13, 2019 | 856 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 22% | 21% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 22% | 2% | 18% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 48] | – |
Monmouth University [52] | Nov 7–11, 2019 | 451 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 19% | 22% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 13% | 3% | 18% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 49] | 8% |
University of Iowa [53] | Oct 28 – Nov 10, 2019 | 465 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 15% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 18% | 3% | 23% | 3% | 2% [lower-alpha 50] | 13% |
Public Policy Polling [54] | Nov 5–6, 2019 | 715 (LV) | – | 13% | 20% | – | 3% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 21% | 3% | – | 10% |
Quinnipiac University [55] | Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2019 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 19% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 17% | 3% | 20% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 51] | 8% |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race |
Polling before November 2019 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
Siena College/New York Times [56] | Oct 25–30, 2019 | 439 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 17% | 2% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 19% | 22% | 8% [lower-alpha 52] | 6% |
Civiqs/Iowa State University [57] | Oct 18–22, 2019 | 598 (LV) | ± 5% | 12% | 1% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 28% | 8% [lower-alpha 54] | 4% |
Suffolk University/USA Today [58] | Oct 16–18, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 18% | 1% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 17% | 7% [lower-alpha 55] | 29% |
Emerson College [59] | Oct 13–16, 2019 | 317 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 23% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 13% | 23% | 15% [lower-alpha 56] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [60] | Oct 8–10, 2019 | 548 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 22% | 2% | 17% | 3% | – [lower-alpha 57] | 1% | 5% | 25% | 26% [lower-alpha 58] | – [lower-alpha 57] |
YouGov/CBS News [61] | Oct 3–11, 2019 | 729 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 22% | 2% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 21% | 22% | 7% [lower-alpha 59] | – |
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [62] | Sep 14–18, 2019 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 20% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 22% | 11% [lower-alpha 60] | 14% |
David Binder Research [63] | Sep 14–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 23% | 9% [lower-alpha 61] | 6% |
Civiqs/Iowa State University [64] | Sep 13–17, 2019 | 572 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 16% | 2% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 16% | 24% | 11% [lower-alpha 62] | 8% |
YouGov/CBS News [65] | Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 | 835 | ± 4.3% | 29% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 26% | 17% | 9% [lower-alpha 63] | – |
Change Research [66] | Aug 9–11, 2019 | 621 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 17% | 3% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 17% | 28% | 9% [lower-alpha 64] | – |
Monmouth University [67] | Aug 1–4, 2019 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 9% | 19% | 11% [lower-alpha 65] | 10% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [68] | Jul 23–25, 2019 | 630 | ± 3.3% | 23% | 2% | 7% | 12% | – | 2% | 11% | 23% | 4% | 16% |
YouGov/CBS News [69] | Jul 9–18, 2019 | 706 | ± 4.4% | 24% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 19% | 17% | 9% [lower-alpha 66] | – |
Steyer announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Change Research [70] | Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 | 420 (LV) | – | 16% | 1% | 25% | 16% | 1% | 2% | 16% | 18% | 5% [lower-alpha 67] | – |
David Binder Research [71] | Jun 29 – Jul 1, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 17% | 2% | 10% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 20% | 9% [lower-alpha 68] | 9% |
Suffolk University/USA Today [72] | Jun 28 – Jul 1, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 24% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 13% | 6% [lower-alpha 69] | 21% |
Change Research [73] | Jun 17–20, 2019 | 308 (LV) | – | 27% | 5% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 18% | 20% | 7% [lower-alpha 70] | – |
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [74] | Jun 2–5, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 24% | 1% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 16% | 15% | 6% [lower-alpha 71] | 6% |
Change Research [75] | May 15–19, 2019 | 615 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 24% | 1% | 14% | 10% | 2% | 5% | 24% | 12% | 9% [lower-alpha 72] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [76] | Apr 30 – May 2, 2019 | 576 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 2% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 14% | 10% | – | 16% |
Biden announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Gravis Marketing [77] | Apr 17–18, 2019 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 19% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 19% | 6% | 7% [lower-alpha 73] | 16% |
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University [78] | Apr 4–9, 2019 | 351 | ± 5.2% | 27% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 16% | 7% | 7% [lower-alpha 74] | 12% |
David Binder Research [79] | Mar 21–24, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 9% [lower-alpha 75] | 7% |
Emerson College [80] | Mar 21–24, 2019 | 249 | ± 6.2% | 25% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 5% | 24% | 9% | 8% [lower-alpha 76] | – |
Public Policy Polling (D) [81] [lower-alpha 77] | Mar 14–15, 2019 | 678 | – | 29% | 4% | – | 5% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 22% |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [82] | Mar 3–6, 2019 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 25% | 9% | 5% [lower-alpha 78] | 10% |
Sanders announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Klobuchar announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [83] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 | 558 | ± 3.6% | 25% | 4% | – | 17% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 1% [lower-alpha 79] | 25% |
Emerson College [84] | Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 | 260 | ± 6.0% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 18% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 11% | 15% [lower-alpha 80] | – |
Booker announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Harris announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
Gabbard announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
Change Research [85] | Dec 13–17, 2018 | 1,291 (LV) | – | 20% | 4% | – | 7% | 5% | 19% | 20% | 7% | 18% [lower-alpha 81] | – |
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [86] | Dec 10–13, 2018 | 455 | ± 4.6% | 32% | 4% | – | 5% | 3% | 11% | 19% | 8% | 7% [lower-alpha 82] | 6% |
David Binder Research [87] | Dec 10–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 30% | 6% | – | 7% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 8% [lower-alpha 83] | 6% |
David Binder Research [88] | Sep 20–23, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 8% | – | 10% | – | – | 12% | 16% | 6% [lower-alpha 84] | 9% |
Yang announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [89] [lower-alpha 85] | Mar 3–6, 2017 | 1,062 | – | – | 17% | – | 3% | 11% | – | – | – | 34% [lower-alpha 86] | 32% |
The New Hampshire Democratic primary was held on February 11, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Joe Biden | Amy Klobuchar | Andrew Yang | Tulsi Gabbard | Tom Steyer | Other | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] |
270 to Win [90] | Feb 10, 2020 | Feb 4–9, 2020 | 27.3% | 20.9% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% [lower-alpha 87] | 6.4% |
RealClear Politics [91] | Feb 10, 2020 | Feb 6–9, 2020 | 28.7% | 21.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% [lower-alpha 88] | 6.3% |
FiveThirtyEight [92] | Feb 10, 2020 | until Feb 10, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 26.0% | 21.6% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% [lower-alpha 89] | 5.8% |
Average | 27.3% | 21.3% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% [lower-alpha 90] | 6.2% | ||
New Hampshire primary results (February 11, 2020) | 25.6% | 24.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 19.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% [lower-alpha 91] | – |
Polling from January 1, 2020, to February 11, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |||
New Hampshire primary (popular vote) | Feb 11, 2020 | – | – | 8.4% | 24.3% | 3.3% | 19.7% | 25.6% | 3.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% [lower-alpha 92] | – | |||
AtlasIntel [93] | Feb 8–10, 2020 | 431 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 12% | 24% | 3% | 14% | 24% | 1% | 11% | 5% | – | 6% | |||
Data For Progress [94] [lower-alpha 93] | Feb 7–10, 2020 | 1296 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 9% | 26% | 3% | 13% | 28% | 3% | 14% | 5% | – | – | |||
American Research Group [95] | Feb 8–9, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 13% | 20% | 3% | 13% | 28% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 94] | 2% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [96] | Feb 8–9, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 10% | 23% | 2% | 14% | 30% | 2% | 11% | 4% | 4% [lower-alpha 95] | – | |||
Change Research [97] | Feb 8–9, 2020 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 9% | 21% | 6% | 8% | 30% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 1% [lower-alpha 96] | 9% | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [98] | Feb 8–9, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 19% | 3% | 14% | 27% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 97] | 7% | |||
Elucd [99] | Feb 7–9, 2020 | 492 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 8% | 20% | – [lower-alpha 98] | 12% | 26% | – [lower-alpha 99] | 10% | – [lower-alpha 100] | – [lower-alpha 101] | 15% | |||
University of New Hampshire/CNN [100] | Feb 6–9, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 11% | 22% | 5% | 7% | 29% | 1% | 10% | 4% | 1% [lower-alpha 102] | 10% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [101] | Feb 7–8, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 11% | 20% | 3% | 13% | 30% | 2% | 12% | 4% | 4% [lower-alpha 103] | – | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [102] | Feb 7–8, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 22% | 2% | 9% | 24% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 104] | 12% | |||
Boston Herald-FPU-NBC10 [103] | Feb 5–8, 2020 | 512 (LV) | – | 14% | 20% | 0% | 6% | 23% | 2% | 16% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 105] | 13% | |||
YouGov/CBS News [104] | Feb 5–8, 2020 | 848 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 12% | 25% | 2% | 10% | 29% | 1% | 17% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 106] | – | |||
University of New Hampshire/CNN [105] | Feb 5–8, 2020 | 384 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 12% | 21% | 5% | 6% | 28% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 107] | 11% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [106] | Feb 6–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 11% | 24% | 5% | 9% | 31% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 108] | – | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [107] | Feb 6–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 11% | 25% | 2% | 6% | 24% | 2% | 14% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 109] | 9% | |||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [108] | Feb 4–7, 2020 | 440 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 14% | 17% | 4% | 8% | 25% | 5% | 15% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 110] | 4% | |||
University of New Hampshire/CNN [109] | Feb 4–7, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 11% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 28% | 3% | 9% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 111] | 11% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [110] | Feb 5–6, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 11% | 23% | 6% | 9% | 32% | 2% | 13% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 112] | – | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [111] | Feb 5–6, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 11% | 23% | 4% | 6% | 24% | 3% | 13% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 113] | 12% | |||
Marist/NBC News [112] | Feb 4–6, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 13% | 21% | 3% | 8% | 25% | 4% | 14% | 4% | 3% [lower-alpha 114] | 5% | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [113] | Feb 4–5, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 25% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 115] | 15% | |||
Monmouth University [114] | Feb 3–5, 2020 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 17% | 20% | 4% | 9% | 24% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 116] | 5% | |||
17% [lower-alpha 117] | 22% | – | 13% | 27% | – | 13% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 118] | 4% | |||||||
19% [lower-alpha 119] | 28% | – | – | 28% | – | 16% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 120] | 5% | |||||||
Emerson College/WHDH [115] | Feb 3–5, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 12% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 31% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 121] | – | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [116] | Feb 3–4, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 15% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 24% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 1% [lower-alpha 122] | 14% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [117] | Feb 2–4, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 13% | 17% | 6% | 11% | 32% | 2% | 11% | 6% | 3% [lower-alpha 123] | – | |||
Iowa caucuses | ||||||||||||||||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [118] | Feb 2–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 24% | 4% | 13% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 124] | 14% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [119] | Feb 1–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 13% | 12% | 4% | 12% | 32% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 125] | – | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [120] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 14% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 29% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 2% [lower-alpha 126] | – | |||
Saint Anselm College [121] | Jan 29 – Feb 2, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 14% | 3% | 11% | 19% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 127] | 11% | |||
Boston Herald-FPU-NBC10 [122] | Jan 29 – Feb 1, 2020 | 454 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 31% | No voters | 17% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 128] | 7% | |||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [123] | Jan 28–31, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 22% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 23% | 6% | 19% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 129] | 4% | |||
YouGov/UMass Amherst/WCVB [124] | Jan 17–29, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 25% | 5% | 17% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 130] | 3% | |||
American Research Group [125] | Jan 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 28% | 2% | 11% | 5% | 8% [lower-alpha 131] | 6% | |||
Boston Herald-FPU-NBC10 [122] | Jan 23–26, 2020 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 29% | 0% | 16% | 1% | 7% [lower-alpha 132] | 9% | |||
Marist/NBC News [126] | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 697 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 17% | 6% | 10% | 22% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 133] | 7% | |||
University of New Hampshire/CNN [127] | Jan 15–23, 2020 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 16% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 25% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 134] | 10% | |||
MassINC Polling Group/WBUR [128] | Jan 17–21, 2020 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 14% | 17% | 5% | 6% | 29% | 2% | 13% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 135] | 5% [lower-alpha 136] | |||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe [129] | Jan 15–19, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 15% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 3% [lower-alpha 137] | 24% | |||
Emerson College/WHDH [130] | Jan 13–16, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 14% | 18% | 5% | 10% | 23% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 7% [lower-alpha 138] | – | |||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Boston Herald-FPU-NBC10 [131] | Jan 8–12, 2020 | 434 (LV) | – | 26% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 22% | 2% | 18% | 2% | 7% [lower-alpha 139] | 12% | |||
Patinkin Research Strategies/Yang 2020 [132] [lower-alpha 140] | Jan 5–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 21% | 17% | 7% | 6% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 3% [lower-alpha 141] | 7% | |||
Monmouth University [133] | Jan 3–7, 2020 | 404 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 19% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 142] | 7% | |||
21% [lower-alpha 143] | 20% | – | 7% | 21% | – | 15% | 5% | 5% [lower-alpha 144] | 8% | |||||||
24% [lower-alpha 145] | 23% | – | – | 21% | – | 18% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 146] | 8% | |||||||
YouGov/CBS News [134] | Dec 27, 2019 – Jan 3, 2020 | 487 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 25% | 13% | 1% | 7% | 27% | 3% | 18% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 147] | – |
Polling before January 2020 | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Deval Patrick | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
MassINC Polling Group/WBUR [135] | Dec 3–8, 2019 | 442 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 17% | 1% | 18% | 5% | – | 3% | – | <1% | 15% | 12% | 5% | 11% [lower-alpha 148] | 12% [lower-alpha 149] |
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [136] | Nov 22–26, 2019 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 14% | 2% | 22% | 6% | 4% | 2% | – | 0% | 26% | 14% | 5% | 7% [lower-alpha 150] | – |
Boston Globe/Suffolk University [137] | Nov 21–24, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | 1% | 16% | 14% | 4% | 6% [lower-alpha 151] | 21% |
Saint Anselm College [138] | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 255 (RV) | ± 6.1% | 15% | 3% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 6% | – | 0% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 152] | 13% |
Patrick announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News [139] | Nov 6–13, 2019 | 535 (RV) | ± 5% | 22% | 1% | 16% | 0% | 3% | 3% | – | – | 20% | 31% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 153] | – |
Quinnipiac University [140] | Nov 6–10, 2019 | 1,134 (LV) | ± 3.8 | 20% | 1% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 3% | – | – | 14% | 16% | 4% | 5% [lower-alpha 154] | 14% |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire/CNN [141] | Oct 21–27, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 15% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | – | 21% | 18% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 155] | 10% |
Boston Herald/FPU [142] | Oct 9–13, 2019 | 422 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 24% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | – | 22% | 25% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 156] | 7% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [143] | Oct 8–10, 2019 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 2% | 7% | – [lower-alpha 157] | 2% | – [lower-alpha 157] | 1% | – | 9% | 25% | 2% | 32% | – [lower-alpha 157] |
YouGov/CBS News [144] | Oct 3–11, 2019 | 506 | ± 5.4% | 24% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | – | 17% | 32% | 5% | 5% [lower-alpha 158] | – |
Saint Anselm College [145] | Sep 25–29, 2019 | 423 | ± 4.8% | 24% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 3% | <1% | – | 11% | 25% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 159] | 9% |
Monmouth University [146] | Sep 17–21, 2019 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 25% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | – | 12% | 27% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 160] | 9% |
HarrisX/No Labels [147] | Sep 6–11, 2019 | 595 | ± 4.0% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 21% | 15% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 161] | 14% |
Boston Herald/FPU [148] | Sep 4–10, 2019 | 425 | ± 4.8% | 21% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 2% | – | 29% | 17% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 162] | 9% |
Emerson College [149] | Sep 6–9, 2019 | 483 | ± 4.4% | 24% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 1% | – | 13% | 21% | 3% | 7% [lower-alpha 163] | – |
YouGov/CBS News [150] | Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 | 526 | ± 5.2% | 26% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 25% | 27% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 164] | – |
Gravis Marketing [151] | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 250 | ± 6.2% | 15% | 0% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | – | 21% | 12% | 4% | 8% [lower-alpha 165] | 11% |
Suffolk University [152] | Aug 1–4, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 21% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 0% | – | 17% | 14% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 166] | 21% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [153] | Jul 23–25, 2019 | 587 | ± 3.3% | 21% | 1% | 8% | – | 13% | – | 0% | – | 13% | 16% | 1% | 7% | 19% |
YouGov/CBS News [154] | Jul 9–18, 2019 | 530 | ± 5% | 27% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 2% | – | 20% | 18% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 167] | – |
University of New Hampshire/CNN [155] | Jul 8–15, 2019 | 386 | ± 5.0% | 24% | 2% | 10% | 1% | 9% | 0% | 2% | – | 19% | 19% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 168] | 9% |
Saint Anselm College [156] | Jul 10–12, 2019 | 351 | ± 5.2% | 21% | 1% | 12% | 1% | 18% | 3% | 0% | – | 10% | 17% | 5% | 3% [lower-alpha 169] | 11% |
Change Research [157] | Jul 6–9, 2019 | 1,084 | ± 3.0% | 19% | 1% | 13% | 3% | 15% | 1% | 1% | – | 20% | 22% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 170] | – |
Change Research [158] | Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 | 420 | – | 13% | 2% | 14% | 2% | 13% | 1% | 2% | – | 26% | 24% | 2% | 4% [lower-alpha 171] | – |
Change Research [159] | Jun 17–20, 2019 | 308 | – | 24% | 0% | 14% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | – | 28% | 21% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 172] | – |
YouGov/CBS News [160] | May 31 – Jun 12, 2019 | 502 | ± 4.9% | 33% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 7% | 1% | 4% | – | 20% | 17% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 173] | – |
Tel Opinion Research [161] * | May 20–22, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 33% | – | 7% | – | 7% | – | 1% | – | 12% | 11% | – | – | 28% |
Monmouth University [162] | May 2–7, 2019 | 376 | ± 5.1% | 36% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 2% | – | 18% | 8% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 174] | 11% |
Change Research [163] | May 3–5, 2019 | 864 | ± 3.3% | 26% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 3% | – | 30% | 9% | 2% | 4% [lower-alpha 175] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [164] | Apr 30 – May 2, 2019 | 551 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 1% | 10% | – | 7% | 1% | 3% | – | 16% | 9% | – | – | 19% |
Suffolk University [165] | Apr 25–28, 2019 | 429 | ± 4.7% | 20% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | – | 12% | 8% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 176] | 27% |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire [166] | Apr 10–18, 2019 | 241 | ± 6.3% | 18% | 3% | 15% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | – | 30% | 5% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 177] | 12% |
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Saint Anselm College [167] | Apr 3–8, 2019 | 326 | ± 5.4% | 23% | 4% | 11% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 6% | – | 16% | 9% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 178] | 13% |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire [168] | Feb 18–26, 2019 | 240 | ± 6.3% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 10% | 4% | 5% | – | 26% | 7% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 179] | 14% |
Emerson College [169] | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 405 | ± 4.8% | 25% | 5% | 1% | – | 12% | 8% | 5% | – | 27% | 9% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 180] | – |
Sanders announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/UMass Amherst [170] | Feb 7–15, 2019 | 337 | ± 6.4% | 28% | 3% | – | – | 14% | 1% | 6% | – | 20% | 9% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 181] | 9% |
Klobuchar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus [171] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 | 518 | ± 4.1% | 22% | 4% | – | – | 13% | 2% | 2% | – | 13% | 9% | – | 0% [lower-alpha 182] | 35% |
Booker announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Harris announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Gabbard announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Change Research [172] | Jan 2–3, 2019 | 1,162 | – | 24% | 3% | – | – | 4% | 2% | 9% | – | 26% | 11% | – | 22% [lower-alpha 183] | – |
University of New Hampshire [173] | Aug 2–19, 2018 | 198 | ± 7.0% | 19% | 6% | – | – | 3% | – | – | – | 30% | 17% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 184] | 12% |
Suffolk University [174] | Apr 26–30, 2018 | 295 | ± 5.7% | 20% | 8% | – | – | 4% | – | – | 4% | 13% | 26% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 185] | 18% |
30% | 10% | – | – | 6% | – | – | 8% | 25% | – | – | 6% [lower-alpha 186] | 12% | ||||
University of New Hampshire [175] | Apr 13–22, 2018 | 188 | ± 7.1% | 26% | 5% | – | – | 6% | 1% | – | – | 28% | 11% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 187] | 13% |
University of New Hampshire [176] | Jan 28 – Feb 10, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 35% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 0% | – | – | 24% | 15% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 188] | 15% |
Yang announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
University of New Hampshire [177] | Oct 3–15, 2017 | 212 | ± 6.7% | 24% | 6% | – | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 31% | 13% | – | 14% [lower-alpha 189] | 11% |
Head-to-head polls | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Undecided | |
Tel Opinion Research [161] | May 20–22, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 63% | 21% | – | – | 15% | |
66% | – | 22% | – | 13% | |||||
58% | – | – | 29% | 13% | |||||
American Research Group [178] | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 47% | – | 45% | – | 7% | |
58% | – | – | 33% | 8% |
The Nevada Democratic caucus was held on February 22, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Tom Steyer | Amy Klobuchar | Others | Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270 to Win [179] | Feb 21, 2020 | Feb 14–21, 2020 | 30.0% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 1.3% [lower-alpha 190] | 4.9% | |
RealClear Politics [180] | Feb 21, 2020 | Feb 19–21, 2020 | 32.5% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 2.0% [lower-alpha 191] | 1.0% | |
FiveThirtyEight [181] | Feb 21, 2020 | until Feb 21, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 30.5% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% [lower-alpha 192] | – [lower-alpha 193] | |
Average | 31.0% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% [lower-alpha 194] | 2.0% | |||
Nevada caucus results, first alignment (February 22, 2020) | 34.0% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 1.5% [lower-alpha 195] | – |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucus | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |
Nevada caucuses (first alignment vote) | Feb 22, 2020 | – | – | 17.6% | – | 15.4% | – | 9.6% | – | 34% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 0.6% | 1% [lower-alpha 196] | – | |
Data for Progress [182] [lower-alpha 197] | Feb 19–21, 2020 | 1010 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 16% | – | 15% | – | 8% | – | 35% | 8% | 16% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 198] | – | |
AtlasIntel [183] | Feb 19–21, 2020 | 517 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 11% | – | 14% | – | 5% | – | 38% | 11% | 9% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 199] | 5% | |
Emerson College [184] | Feb 19–20, 2020 | 425 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 16% | – | 17% | – | 11% | – | 30% | 10% | 12% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 200] | – | |
Early voting occurred in the Nevada caucuses [185] | ||||||||||||||||
Point Blank Political [186] | Feb 13–15, 2020 | 256 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 14.3% | – | 12.6% | – | 15.6% | – | 13% | 18.6% | 7.1% | – | 1.7% [lower-alpha 201] | 17.1% | |
Beacon Research/Tom Steyer [187] | Feb 12–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 19% | – | 13% | – | 7% | – | 24% | 18% | 10% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 202] | 6% | |
Data for Progress [188] [lower-alpha 203] | Feb 12–15, 2020 | 766 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 14% | – | 15% | – | 9% | – | 35% | 10% | 16% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 204] | – | |
WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP Nevada [189] | Feb 11–13, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | – | 10% | – | 10% | – | 25% | 11% | 13% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 205] | 8% | |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Suffolk University/USA Today [190] | Jan 8–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 2% | 8% | – | 4% | – | 18% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 4% [lower-alpha 206] | 22% | |
https://www.yang2020.com/wp-content/uploads/Myers-Research-Nevada.pdf Archived January 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | Jan 5–8, 2020 | 635 | ± 4.0% | 23% | 3% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 17% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 13% [lower-alpha 207] | 6% | |
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News [191] | Nov 6–13, 2019 | 708 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 33% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 2% | – | 23% | 2% | 21% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 208] | – | |
Fox News [192] | Nov 10–13, 2019 | 627 | ± 4.0% | 24% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 2% | – | 18% | 5% | 18% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 209] | 10% | |
Emerson Polling [193] | Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 | 451 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 30% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 1% | – | 19% | 3% | 22% | 5% | 10% [lower-alpha 210] | – | |
Mellman Group/The Nevada Independent [194] | Oct 28 – Nov 2, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 19% | 4% | 19% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 211] | 9% | |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
CNN/SSRS [195] | Sep 22–26, 2019 | 324 (LV) | ± 7.1% | 22% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 22% | 4% | 18% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 212] | 13% | |
Suffolk University/USA Today [196] | Sep 19–23, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 23% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 19% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 213] | 21% | |
YouGov/CBS News [197] | Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 29% | 2% | 18% | 1% | 9% [lower-alpha 214] | – | |
Gravis Marketing [198] | Aug 14–16, 2019 | 382 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 25% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 2% | 13% [lower-alpha 215] | 9% | |
Change Research [199] | Aug 2–8, 2019 | 439 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 26% | 0% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 22% | 3% | 23% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 216] | – | |
Morning Consult [200] | Jul 1–21, 2019 | 749 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 23% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 10% [lower-alpha 217] | – | |
Steyer announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Monmouth University [201] | Jun 6–11, 2019 | 370 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 13% | – | 19% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 218] | 8% | |
Change Research [202] | May 9–12, 2019 | 389 (LV) | – | 29% | 2% | 13% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 24% | – | 12% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 219] | – | |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [203] | Mar 28–30, 2019 | 310 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 26% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 10% | 23% | – | 10% | 3% | 9% [lower-alpha 220] | – |
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Amy Klobuchar | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 221] |
270 to Win [204] | Feb 28, 2020 | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 35.8% | 20.2% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% |
RealClear Politics [205] | Feb 28, 2020 | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 39.7% | 24.3% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | – [lower-alpha 222] |
FiveThirtyEight [206] | Feb 28, 2020 | until Feb 27, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 38.4% | 19.1% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 7.7% [lower-alpha 223] |
Average | 38.0% | 21.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% [lower-alpha 224] | ||
South Carolina primary results (February 29, 2020) | 48.7% | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | – |
Polling in January and February 2020 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |
South Carolina primary (popular vote) | Feb 29, 2020 | – | – | 48.65% | – | 8.2% | 1.26% | 3.13% | 19.77% | 11.34% | 7.07% | 0.2% | 0.38% [lower-alpha 225] | – | |
Atlas Intel [207] | Feb 25–28, 2020 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | – | 8% | 2% | 4% | 24% | 12% | 7% | – | 2% | 6% | |
Emerson College [208] | Feb 26–27, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | – | 11% | 2% | 6% | 25% | 11% | 5% | – | – | – | |
Trafalgar Group [209] | Feb 26–27, 2020 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 43.9% | – | 9.6% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 22.8% | 10.5% | 5.6% | – | – | – | |
Data for Progress [210] | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 1416 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 34% | – | 13% | 3% | 5% | 25% | 13% | 7% | – | – | – | |
Change Research [211] / Post and Courier | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 28% | – | 11% | 5% | 4% | 24% | 16% | 12% | – | – | 1% | |
Starboard Communications [212] | Feb 26, 2020 | 1,102 (LV) | ± 2.82% | 40% | – | 9% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 9% | – | – | 12% | |
Tenth Democratic primary debate | |||||||||||||||
Monmouth University [213] | Feb 23–25, 2020 | 454 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | – | 6% | 1% | 4% | 16% | 15% | 8% | – | 0% | 15% | |
Clemson University [214] | Feb 17–25, 2020 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 35% | – | 8% | 2% | 4% | 13% | 17% | 8% | – | – | 12% | |
East Carolina University [215] | Feb 23–24, 2020 | 1,142 (LV) | ± 3.37% | 31% | – | 6% | 2% | 2% | 23% | 20% | 8% | – | – | 8% | |
Public Policy Polling [216] | Feb 23–24, 2020 | 866 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | – | 7% | 6% | 3% | 21% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 11% [lower-alpha 226] | |
Nevada caucuses | |||||||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News [217] | Feb 20–22, 2020 | 1,238 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 28% | – | 10% | 1% | 4% | 23% | 18% | 12% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 227] | 1% | |
Marist Poll/NBC News [218] | Feb 18–21, 2020 | 539 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 27% | – | 9% | 3% | 5% | 23% | 15% | 8% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 228] | 9% | |
997 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 25% | – | 9% | 3% | 5% | 24% | 15% | 8% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 229] | 9% | |||
Winthrop University [219] | Feb 9–19, 2020 | 443 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | – | 7% | 1% | 4% | 19% | 15% | 6% | 1% [lower-alpha 230] | 2% [lower-alpha 231] | 22% | |
University of Massachusetts Lowell [220] | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 23% | – | 11% | 4% | 9% | 21% | 13% | 11% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 232] | 4% | |
Change Research/The Welcome Party [221] | Feb 12–14, 2020 | 1015 (LV) | – | 23% | – | 15% | 1% | 8% | 23% | 20% | 9% | – | – | 1% | |
East Carolina University [222] | Feb 12–13, 2020 | 703 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 28% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 7% | 20% | 14% | 7% | – | 0% | 8% | |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||||
Iowa caucus | |||||||||||||||
Zogby Analytics [223] | Jan 31 – Feb 3, 2020 | 277 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 1% | 0% [lower-alpha 233] | 8% | |
East Carolina University [224] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 | 469 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 37% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% [lower-alpha 234] | 10% | |
Change Research/ Post and Courier [225] | Jan 26–29, 2020 | 651 (LV) | ± 4% | 25% | – | 7% | 3% | 2% | 20% | 18% | 11% | 3% | 1% [lower-alpha 235] | 10% | |
Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
GQR Research/Unite the Country [226] [lower-alpha 236] | Jan 9–13, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 36% [lower-alpha 237] | – [lower-alpha 238] | 5% [lower-alpha 239] | – [lower-alpha 240] | – [lower-alpha 241] | 15% [lower-alpha 242] | 12% [lower-alpha 243] | 10% [lower-alpha 244] | – [lower-alpha 245] | – [lower-alpha 246] | – [lower-alpha 247] | |
Fox News [227] | Jan 5–8, 2020 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 248] | 11% |
Polling before January 2020 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
Change Research/ Post and Courier [228] | Dec 6–11, 2019 | 392 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 5% | 9% | – | – | 20% | 5% | 19% | 13% [lower-alpha 249] | – |
Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
YouGov/FairVote [229] | Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 39% | 2% | 10% | 2% | – | 13% | 7% | 10% | 13% [lower-alpha 250] | 4% |
Quinnipiac University [230] | Nov 13–17, 2019 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 33% | 2% | 6% | 3% | – | 11% | 5% | 13% | 7% [lower-alpha 251] | 18% |
YouGov/CBS News [231] | Nov 6–13, 2019 | 933 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 2% | 8% | 5% | – | 15% | 2% | 17% | 6% [lower-alpha 252] | – |
University of North Florida [232] | Nov 5–13, 2019 | 426 (LV) | – | 36% | 2% | 3% | 4% | – | 10% | 8% | 10% | 6% [lower-alpha 253] | 23% |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University [233] | Oct 16–21, 2019 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 16% | 7% [lower-alpha 254] | 15% |
Change Research/ Post and Courier [234] | Oct 15–21, 2019 | 731 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 30% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 1% | 13% | 5% | 19% | 11% [lower-alpha 255] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus [235] | Oct 8–10, 2019 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 8% | – | 16% | 33% [lower-alpha 256] | – [lower-alpha 257] |
YouGov/CBS News [236] | Oct 3–11, 2019 | 915 (RV) | ±3.9% | 43% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 16% | 2% | 18% | 6% [lower-alpha 258] | – |
Gravis Marketing [237] | Oct 3–7, 2019 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 10% [lower-alpha 259] | 19% |
Fox News [238] | Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 8% [lower-alpha 260] | 16% |
Winthrop University [219] | Sep 21–30, 2019 | 462 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 17% | 6% [lower-alpha 261] | 12% |
CNN/SSRS [239] | Sep 22–26, 2019 | 406 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 37% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 16% | 4% [lower-alpha 262] | 10% |
YouGov/CBS News [240] | Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 | 849 (RV) [lower-alpha 263] | ± 4.3% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 1% | 14% | 9% [lower-alpha 264] | – |
Change Research [241] | Aug 9–12, 2019 | 521 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 1% | 16% | 1% | 17% | 7% [lower-alpha 265] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus [242] | Jul 23–25, 2019 | 554 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 0% | 9% | – | 12% | 8% [lower-alpha 266] | 24% |
Monmouth University [243] | Jul 18–22, 2019 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 9% | 3% [lower-alpha 267] | 17% |
YouGov/CBS News [244] | Jul 9–18, 2019 | 997 (RV) [lower-alpha 268] | ± 3.8% | 39% | 3% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 17% | 1% | 12% | 9% [lower-alpha 269] | – |
Fox News [245] | Jul 7–10, 2019 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 5% | 3% [lower-alpha 270] | 20% |
Steyer announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Change Research [246] | Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 | 421 (LV) | – | 27% | 6% | 6% | 21% | 1% | 16% | 0% | 15% | 8% [lower-alpha 271] | – |
Change Research [247] | Jun 17–20, 2019 | 308 (LV) | – | 39% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 0% | 15% | 5% [lower-alpha 272] | – |
Change Research [248] | Jun 11–14, 2019 | 933 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 4% | 9% | – | 17% | 8% [lower-alpha 273] | – |
YouGov/CBS News [249] | May 31 – Jun 12, 2019 | 552 (LV) | – | 45% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 18% | – | 8% | 8% [lower-alpha 274] | – |
Zogby Analytics [250] | May 23–29, 2019 | 183 (LV) | ± 7.2% | 36% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 13% | – | 12% | 4% [lower-alpha 275] | – |
Tel Opinion Research [161] * | May 22–24, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 2% | 3% | 7% | – | 10% | – | 8% | – | 32% |
Crantford Research [251] | May 14–16, 2019 | 381 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 4% | 8% | 10% | – | 7% | – | 8% | – | – |
Change Research [252] | May 6–9, 2019 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 15% | – | 8% | 5% [lower-alpha 276] | – |
Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus [253] | Apr 30 – May 2, 2019 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 12% | – | 5% | 1% [lower-alpha 277] | 20% |
Biden announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Change Research [254] | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2019 | 744 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 14% | – | 6% | 12% [lower-alpha 278] | – |
– | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 24% | – | 11% | 12% [lower-alpha 279] | – | ||||
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Emerson College [255] | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 | 291 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 37% | 6% | 0% | 9% | 5% | 21% | – | 5% | 16% [lower-alpha 280] | – |
Change Research [256] | Feb 15–18, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 10% | – | 13% | 8% | 14% | – | 9% | 12% [lower-alpha 281] | – |
– | 28% | 1% | 35% | – | – | – | 20% | 18% [lower-alpha 282] | – | ||||
Sanders announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||
Firehouse Strategies/ Øptimus [257] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 | 557 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 5% | – | 12% | 2% | 8% | – | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 283] | 31% |
Head-to-head polling | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
YouGov/FairVote [229] [lower-alpha 284] | Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 73% | 27% | – | – | – | – |
66% | – | 34% | – | – | – | ||||
61% | – | – | 29% | [lower-alpha 285] | 6% | ||||
– | 39% | 61% | – | – | – | ||||
– | 36% | – | 64% | – | – | ||||
– | – | 54% | 46% | – | – | ||||
Tel Opinion Research [161] | May 22–24, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 71% | 10% | – | – | – | 19% |
70% | – | 15% | – | – | 16% | ||||
67% | – | – | 15% | – | 18% |
The Alabama Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [258] | March 3, 2020 | February 28 – March 2, 2020 | 44.5% | 21.0% | 18.0% | 11.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% | |||
RealClear Politics [259] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | |||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [260] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 40.2% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 10.9% | 0.5% | 14.1% | |||
Average | 42.35% | 19.7% | 16.95% | 10.95% | 0.75% | 9.3% | |||||
Alabama primary results (March 3, 2020) | 63.3% | 16.5% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Alabama Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [261] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 949 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 18% | – | 3% | – | – | 20% | 10% | 8% [lower-alpha 286] | – | |||
Data for Progress [262] | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 | 237 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 47% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 22% | 12% | 2% [lower-alpha 287] | – | |||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
SurveyMonkey [263] | July 2–16, 2019 | 257 | ± 7.8% | 36% | – | 2% | 5% | 13% | 1% | 15% | 9% | 10% [lower-alpha 288] | – | |||
Change Research [264] | March 20–23, 2019 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 42% | – | 9% | 3% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 6% | 4% [lower-alpha 289] | – | |||
– | – | 14% | 4% | 16% | 17% | 27% | 12% | 9% [lower-alpha 290] | – |
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [265] | March 3, 2020 | February 6–March 2, 2020 | 27.7% | 22.3% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 0.5% | 19.5% | |||
RealClear Politics [266] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | |||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [267] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 27.5% | 21.0% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 0.3% | 20.6% | |||
Average | 27.6% | 21.65% | 18.4% | 11.9% | 0.4% | 20.05% | |||||
Arkansas primary results (March 3, 2020) | 40.5% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 9.7% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arkansas Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | ||||||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [268] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 714 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 28% | 25% | 8% | 17% | 10% | 13% [lower-alpha 291] | – | ||||||
Data for Progress [269] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 36% | 22% | 2% | 23% | 15% | 2% [lower-alpha 292] | – | ||||||
The Progress Campaign (D) [270] | Feb 21–25, 2020 | 209 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 12% | 6% [lower-alpha 293] | 10% [lower-alpha 294] | ||||||
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics [271] | February 6–7, 2020 | 496 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 15.5% | 16.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% [lower-alpha 295] | 11% |
The California Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Elizabeth Warren | Michael Bloomberg | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [272] | March 3, 2020 | February 20 – March 1, 2020 | 33.0% | 20.0% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 16.4% | |||
RealClear Politics [273] | March 3, 2020 | February 28 – March 2, 2020 | 35.0% | 23.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 1.5% | 10.5% [lower-alpha 296] | |||
FiveThirtyEight [274] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 31.2% | 21.7% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 0.7% | 16.8% | |||
Average | 33.1% | 21.6% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 14.5% | |||||
California primary results (March 3, 2020) | 36.0% | 27.9% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 0.6% | 10.2% |
Polling from January 1 to March 3, 2020 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Tom Steyer | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||||
Swayable [275] | March 1–2, 2020 | 3,388 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 20.8% | 19.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 28.7% | 4.0% | 9.6% | – | 6.0% [lower-alpha 297] | – | ||
Data for Progress [276] | February 28 – March 2, 2020 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 25% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 32% | – | 16% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 298] | – | ||
AtlasIntel [277] | February 24 – March 2, 2020 | 727 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 34% | – | 15% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 299] | 4% | ||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||||
Point Blank Political [278] | February 29 – March 1, 2020 | 1,220 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 34% | 1% | 14% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 300] | 9% | ||
Emerson College/Nexstar [279] | February 29 – March 1, 2020 | 545 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 21% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 38% | 2% | 16% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 301] | – | ||
South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls. | |||||||||||||||
YouGov/CBS News [280] | February 27–29, 2020 | 1,411 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 31% | 3% | 18% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 302] | – | ||
Suffolk University [281] | February 26–29, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 14% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 35% | 3% | 12% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 303] | – | ||
YouGov/[[Hoover<br ]]/[[>Institution/Stanford University]] [282] | February 26–28, 2020 | 1,020 (LV) | – | 19% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 28% | 4% | 18% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 304] | – | ||
Point Blank Political [283] | February 26–28, 2020 | 2,276 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 34% | 3% | 14% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 305] | 10% | ||
40% [lower-alpha 306] | – | – | – | 50% | – | – | – | – | 11% | ||||||
– | 32% [lower-alpha 307] | – | – | 57% | – | – | – | – | 11% | ||||||
– | – | – | – | 46% [lower-alpha 308] | – | 36% | – | – | 16% | ||||||
CNN/SSRS [284] | February 22–26, 2020 | 488 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 35% | 3% | 14% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 309] | 8% | ||
Tenth Democratic primary debate | |||||||||||||||
Point Blank Political [285] | February 23–25, 2020 | 2,098 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 4% | 34% | 3% | 13% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 310] | 13% | ||
Berkeley IGS/LA Times [286] | Feb 20–25, 2020 | 3,002 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 34% | 2% | 17% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 311] | 7% | ||
Nevada caucuses | |||||||||||||||
Change Research/KQED News [287] | February 20–23, 2020 | 1,069 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 37% | 3% | 20% | 4% [lower-alpha 312] | 3% [lower-alpha 313] | – | ||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [288] | February 12–20, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 7% | 24% | 2% | 16% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 314] | 6% | ||
Monmouth University [289] | February 16–19, 2020 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 17% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 24% | 5% | 10% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 315] | 13% | ||
36% [lower-alpha 316] | – | – | – | 44% | – | – | – | 15% [lower-alpha 317] | 5% | ||||||
– | 31% [lower-alpha 318] | – | – | 48% | – | – | – | 14% [lower-alpha 319] | 6% | ||||||
– | – | 26% [lower-alpha 320] | – | 51% | – | – | – | 16% [lower-alpha 321] | 7% | ||||||
– | – | – | 24% [lower-alpha 322] | 54% | – | – | – | 16% [lower-alpha 323] | 6% | ||||||
Public Policy Institute of California [290] | February 7–17, 2020 | 573 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 5% | 32% | 3% | 13% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 324] | 8% | ||
SurveyUSA [291] | February 13–16, 2020 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 15% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 25% | 3% | 9% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 325] | 9% | ||
YouGov/USC [292] | February 1–15, 2020 | – | – | 21% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 29% | 2% | 20% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 326] | 9% [lower-alpha 327] | ||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls. | |||||||||||||||
Capitol Weekly [293] | February 6–9, 2020 | 843 (LV) | – | 8% [lower-alpha 328] | 8% | 15% | 7% | 25% | 4% | 19% | 5% | 6% [lower-alpha 329] | 3% [lower-alpha 330] | ||
11% | 13% | 14% | 5% | 29% | 3% | 16% | 4% | 5% [lower-alpha 331] | 1% [lower-alpha 332] | ||||||
Iowa Caucuses | |||||||||||||||
Change Research/KQED News [294] | January 25–27, 2020 | 1,967 (LV) | – | 15% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 30% | 2% | 16% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 333] | 13% | ||
Berkeley IGS/LA Times [295] | January 15–21, 2020 | 2,895 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 26.3% | 1.8% | 19.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% [lower-alpha 334] | 11.7% | ||
SurveyUSA [296] | January 14–16, 2020 | 565 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 30% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 20% | 4% | 20% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 335] | 4% | ||
Booker withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||||
Public Policy Institute of California/Mercury News [297] | January 3–12, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 24% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 27% | – | 23% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 336] | 7% | ||
Tulchin Research/USC Rossier/The Hill [298] | January 3–10, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | – | 25% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 29% | 3% | 12% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 337] | 6% | ||
Capitol Weekly [299] | January 1–9, 2020 | 1,053 (LV) | – | 20% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 24% | 2% | 21% | 7% | 3% [lower-alpha 338] | – |
Polling before 1 January 2020 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
Change Research/KQED News [300] | December 6–10, 2019 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 19% | 3% | 12% | – | – | 26% | 23% | 4% | 13% [lower-alpha 339] | – |
CNN/SSRS [301] | December 4–8, 2019 | 508 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 21% | 3% | 9% | – | – | 20% | 17% | 6% | 12% [lower-alpha 340] | 11% |
Capitol Weekly [302] | December 3–7, 2019 | 581 (LV) | – [lower-alpha 341] | 19% | 2% | 14% | – | – | 19% | 23% | 5% | 17% [lower-alpha 342] | 1% |
19% | 2% | 13% | 4% | – | 19% | 21% | 5% | 17% [lower-alpha 343] | 0% | ||||
Harris withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||
Berkeley IGS/LA Times [303] | November 21–27, 2019 | 1,252 (LV) | – | 14% | 1% | 12% | 7% | – | 24% | 22% | 3% | 12% [lower-alpha 344] | 9% |
SurveyUSA [304] | November 20–22, 2019 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 28% | 3% | 8% | 10% | – | 18% | 13% | 5% | 11% [lower-alpha 345] | 5% |
Capitol Weekly [305] | November 1–12, 2019 | 695 (LV) | – | 18% | 1% | 14% | 6% | – | 21% | 27% | 4% | 8% [lower-alpha 346] | 1% |
[[Public Policy Institute of<br ]]/[[>California]] [306] | November 3–12, 2019 | 682 (LV) | – | 24% | 1% | 7% | 8% | – | 17% | 23% | 5% | 6% [lower-alpha 347] | 9% |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||
Change Research [307] | October 15–18, 2019 | 1,631 (LV) | – | 19% | 1% | 9% | 8% | 1% | 24% | 28% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 348] | – |
SurveyUSA [308] | October 15–16, 2019 | 553 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 33% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 17% | 18% | 4% | 5% [lower-alpha 349] | 8% |
Capitol Weekly [309] | October 1–14, 2019 | 590 (LV) | – | 21% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 15% | 35% | 3% | 9% [lower-alpha 350] | – |
[[Public Policy Institute of<br ]]/[[>California]] [310] | September 16–25, 2019 | 692 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 22% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 21% | 23% | 3% | 7% [lower-alpha 351] | 9% |
Berkeley IGS/LA Times [311] | September 13–18, 2019 | 2,272 | – | 20% | 1% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 19% | 29% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 352] | 8% |
Emerson College [312] | September 13–16, 2019 | 424 | ± 4.7% | 26% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 4% [lower-alpha 353] | – |
SurveyUSA [313] | September 13–15, 2019 | 547 | ± 4.8% | 27% | 2% | 3% | 13% | 2% | 18% | 16% | 7% | 4% [lower-alpha 354] | 7% |
Change Research/KQED [314] | September 12–15, 2019 | 3,325 | ± 1.7% | 18% | 2% | 10% | 11% | 2% | 23% | 25% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 355] | – |
Capitol Weekly [315] | September 1–13, 2019 | 599 | – | 18% | 1% | 7% | 11% | 2% | 21% | 29% | 4% | 5% [lower-alpha 356] | – |
Capitol Weekly [316] | September 1–13, 2019 | 5,510 | – | 18% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 2% | 17% | 33% | 3% | 7% [lower-alpha 357] | – |
SurveyUSA [317] | August 1–5, 2019 | 528 | ± 6.3% | 25% | 1% | 6% | 17% | 0% | 18% | 21% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 358] | 10% |
PPIC [318] | July 14–23, 2019 | 766 | ± 4.4% | 11% | – | 5% | 19% | – | 12% | 15% | – | 14% [lower-alpha 359] | 25% |
YouGov/CBS News [319] | July 9–18, 2019 | 1,514 | ± 2.9% | 24% | 1% | 6% | 23% | 1% | 16% | 19% | 1% | 9% [lower-alpha 360] | – |
Quinnipiac University [320] | July 10–15, 2019 | 519 | ± 5.7% | 21% | 1% | 3% | 23% | 1% | 18% | 16% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 361] | 10% |
Capitol Weekly [316] | July 1–15, 2019 | 816 | – | 20% | 1% | 8% | 20% | 2% | 16% | 25% | 1% | 7% [lower-alpha 362] | – |
Change Research [321] | July 9–11, 2019 | 1,609 | ± 2.5% | 17% | 1% | 8% | 23% | 2% | 20% | 22% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 363] | – |
Swalwell withdraws from the race. | |||||||||||||
Capitol Weekly [322] | June 1–30, 2019 | 813 | – | 23% | 2% | 8% | 14% | 2% | 19% | 23% | 2% | 9% [lower-alpha 364] | – |
UC Berkeley [323] | June 4–10, 2019 | 2,131 | ± 3.0% | 22% | 1% | 10% | 13% | 3% | 17% | 18% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 365] | 11% |
Capitol Weekly [322] | May 1–31, 2019 | 1,180 | – | 29% | 2% | 9% | 17% | 4% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 6% [lower-alpha 366] | – |
Change Research [324] | May 25–28, 2019 | 1,649 | ± 2.4% | 30% | 1% | 12% | 15% | 3% | 23% | 12% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 367] | – |
Capitol Weekly [322] | April 15–30, 2019 | 1,204 | – | 20% | 2% | 19% | 17% | 4% | 20% | 10% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 368] | – |
Biden announces his candidacy. | |||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy. | |||||||||||||
Change Research [325] | April 6–9, 2019 | 2,003 | ± 2.2% | 21% | 3% | 9% | 19% | 10% | 22% | 8% | 1% | 7% [lower-alpha 369] | – |
– | 5% | 11% | 27% | 16% | 28% | 9% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 370] | – | ||||
Swalwell announces his candidacy. | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University [326] | April 3–8, 2019 | 482 | ± 5.9% | 26% | 2% | 7% | 17% | 4% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 371] | 13% |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy. | |||||||||||||
Sanders announces his candidacy. | |||||||||||||
Change Research [327] | February 9–11, 2019 | 948 | – | 26% | 3% | 1% | 26% | 8% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 7% [lower-alpha 372] | – |
– | 7% | 2% | 53% | – | – | 23% | 1% | 15% [lower-alpha 373] | – |
The Colorado Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Elizabeth Warren | Michael Bloomberg | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||
270 to Win [328] | March 3, 2020 | Feb 24–Mar 2, 2020 | 29.3% | 16.3% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 22.1% | ||||
RealClear Politics [329] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | ||||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [330] | March 3, 2020 | until March 3, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 26.8% | 18.2% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 0.5% | 22.4% | ||||
Average | 28.0% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 22.1% | ||||||
Colorado primary results (March 3, 2020) | 37.0% | 24.6% | 17.6% | 18.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Colorado Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | John Hickenlooper | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [331] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 20% | 19% | 12% | – | – | 29% | 12% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 374] | – | ||
Data for Progress [332] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 464 (LV) | ± 4.2% | – | 18% | 16% | 8% | – | – | 32% | 21% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 375] | – | ||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Elucd [333] | Feb 26–Mar 1, 2020 | 561 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | 10% | 9% | 10% | – | – | 34% | 14% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 376] | 14% | ||
Magellan Strategies [334] | Feb 24–25, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | – | 11% | 11% | 12% | – | – | 27% | 15% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 377] | 15% | ||
Data for Progress [335] | Feb 23–25, 2020 | 471 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | 10% | 14% | 14% | – | – | 34% | 20% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 378] | 1% | ||
New Hampshire primary; Yang and Bennet withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [336] | Aug 16–19, 2019 | 403 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 1% | 25% | – | 5% | 13% | – | 26% | 20% | 4% | 8% [lower-alpha 379] | – | ||
Hickenlooper withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling [337] | Jul 12–14, 2019 | 519 (LV) | – | 5% | 22% | – | 7% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 19% | 0% | 14% [lower-alpha 380] | – |
The Maine Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||
270 to Win [338] | Mar 3, 2020 | Feb 10–Mar 2, 2020 | 28.7% | 19.7% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 17.0% | ||
RealClear Politics [339] | Mar 3, 2020 | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 38.5% | 24.5% | 14.0% | 18.0% | – [lower-alpha 381] | 5.0% | ||
FiveThirtyEight [340] | Mar 3, 2020 | until Mar 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 31.1% | 21.7% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 0.7% | 19.6% | ||
Average | 32.8% | 22.0% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 11.9% | ||||
Maine primary results (March 3, 2020) | 32.4% | 33.4% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 0.9% | 5.9% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Maine Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [341] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 209 (LV) | ± 9.0% | 22% | 28% | 10% | – | 27% | 11% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 382] | – | ||||
Change Research [342] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 507 (LV) | – | 24% | 10% | – | – | 43% | 16% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 383] | – | ||||
Data for Progress [343] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 385 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 25% | 18% | 1% | – | 34% | 20% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 384] | – | ||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
SocialSphere/Colby College [344] | Feb 10–13, 2020 | 350 (LV) | – | 12% | 14% | 16% | – | 25% | 9% | 2% | 10% [lower-alpha 385] | 12% | ||||
Yang withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Maine People's Resource Center [345] | Oct 14–21, 2019 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.63% | 26.8% | – | 9.1% | 5.0% | 15.4% | 22.1% | 1.7% | 11.4% [lower-alpha 386] | 4.4% | ||||
Public Policy Polling [346] | Oct 11–13, 2019 | 366 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 19% | – | 9% | 4% | 12% | 31% | 3% | 20% [lower-alpha 387] | – [lower-alpha 388] | ||||
Gravis Marketing [347] | Jun 24, 2019 | 243 | ± 6.3% | 25% | – | 8% | 2% | 15% | 17% | 5% | 15% [lower-alpha 389] | 11% |
The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Tulsi Gabbard | Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 390] | |
270 to Win [348] | March 3, 2020 | Until March 3, 2020 | 22.4% | 21.0% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 26.2% | |
FiveThirtyEight [349] | March 3, 2020 | until March 3, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 24.4% | 21.0% | 18.1% | 14.5% | 0.4% | 21.6% | |
Average | 23.4% | 21.0% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 23.9% | |||
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020) | 26.6% | 21.4% | 33.4% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 6.1% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Deval Patrick | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |
Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [350] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 917 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 17% | 18% | – | 11% | – | 5% | – | – | 27% | 15% | 8% [lower-alpha 391] | – | |
Data for Progress [351] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 301 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 26% | 15% | – | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 26% | 28% | 2% [lower-alpha 392] | – | |
Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden | ||||||||||||||||
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV [352] | Feb 26–29, 2020 | 500 (LV) | - | 11.0% | 13.0% | – | 12.4% | – | 5.0% | – | – | 24.2% | 22.2% | 3.6% [lower-alpha 393] | 8.6% | |
WBUR/MassINC [353] | Feb 23–26, 2020 | 426 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 9% | 13% | - | 14% | - | 6% | - | - | 25% | 17% | 9% [lower-alpha 394] | 8% | |
UMass Amherst [354] | Feb 18–24, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 12% | 9% | - | 14% | - | 7% | - | - | 25% | 23% | 8% [lower-alpha 395] | 3% | |
Falchuk & DiNatale [355] | Feb 16–18, 2020 | 453 (LV) | – | 13% | 13% | – | 13% | – | 14% | – | – | 17% | 16% | 5% [lower-alpha 396] | 8% | |
University of Massachusetts Lowell [356] | Feb 12–19, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 14% | 12% | – | 15% | – | 9% | – | – | 21% | 20% | 6% [lower-alpha 397] | 4% | |
Patrick withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Falchuk & DiNatale [357] | Jan 27–30, 2020 | 334 (LV) | – | 16% | 8% | – | 6% | – | 7% | – | 3% | 12% | 23% | 7% [lower-alpha 398] | – | |
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Patrick announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
WBUR [358] | Oct 16–20, 2019 | 456 | ± 4.6% | 18% | – | 0% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | – | 13% | 33% | 7% [lower-alpha 399] | 15% | |
Suffolk University [359] | Sep 3–5, 2019 | 500 | - | 26% | – | 1% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 1% | – | 8% | 24% | 6% [lower-alpha 400] | 25% | |
Moulton withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Suffolk University [360] | Jun 5–9, 2019 | 370 | ± 5.1% | 22% | – | 1% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 6% | 10% | 5% [lower-alpha 401] | 42% | |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Moulton announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [361] | Apr 4–7, 2019 | 371 | ± 5.0% | 23% | – | 2% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 8% | – | 26% | 14% | 8% [lower-alpha 402] | – | |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Sanders announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Booker announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Harris announces her candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/UMass Amherst [362] | Nov 7–14, 2018 | 655 | – | 19% | – | 3% | – | 6% | 3% | 10% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 1% [lower-alpha 403] | 27% |
Hypothetical polling with only Biden, Sanders and Warren | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Undecided |
Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine [363] | Oct 23–25, 2019 | 443 (LV) | – | 35% | 13% | 41% | 11% |
The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18] Amy Klobuchar led in pre-election polling, but withdrew from the race the night before the election and endorsed Joe Biden (who went on to win Minnesota).
Polling Aggregation | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [364] | Mar 2, 2020 | Feb 20–22, 2020 | 28.0% | 22.0% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 19.5% | |||
FiveThirtyEight [365] | Mar 2, 2020 | until Mar 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 24.4% | 26.2% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 17.2% | |||
Average | 26.2% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 18.3% | |||||
Minnesota Primary results (March 3, 2020) | 5.6% | 29.9% | 15.4% | 38.6% | 8.3% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [366] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 1,472 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 20% | 14% | 4% | – | 21% | – | 27% | 8% | 6% [lower-alpha 404] | – | |||
Data for Progress [367] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.84% | 27% | 16% | – | – | 2% | – | 32% | 21% | 1% [lower-alpha 405] | – | |||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune/[[ MPR News Minnesota]] [368] | Feb 17–20, 2020 | 500(LV) | ± 4.5% | 8% | 3% | 3% | – | 29% | – | 23% | 11% | 2% [lower-alpha 406] | 21% | |||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [369] | Feb 12–19, 2020 | 450(LV) | ± 6.4% | 9% | 9% | 10% | – | 27% | – | 21% | 16% | 4% [lower-alpha 407] | 4% | |||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
St. Cloud State University [370] | Oct 14-Nov 1, 2019 | 177 (LV) | – | 15% | – | 2% | – | 15% | – | 12% | 15% | – | – | |||
Kaiser Family Foundation [371] | Sep 23–Oct 15, 2019 | 249 | – | 14% | – | 7% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 13% | 25% | 5% [lower-alpha 408] | 21% | |||
Change Research [372] | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 772 | ± 3.7% | 20% | – | 11% | 4% | 16% | 3% | 19% | 21% | 5% [lower-alpha 409] | – |
The North Carolina Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date Updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [373] | March 3, 2020 | February 21–March 2, 2020 | 27.8% | 25.8% | 17.0% | 11.6% | 0.8% | 17.0% | |||
RealClear Politics [374] | March 3, 2020 | February 27–March 2, 2020 | 36.7% | 23.3% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 1.0% | 14.0% | |||
FiveThirtyEight [375] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 34.5% | 22.1% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 0.2% | 17.5% | |||
Average | 33.0% | 23.7% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 16.2% | |||||
North Carolina primary results (March 3, 2020) | 43.0% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 0.5% | 8.9% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 North Carolina Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Spry Strategies/Civitas [376] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 11% | – | 3% | – | 18% | 7% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 410] | 11% | |||
Swayable [377] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 1,209 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 18% | – | 4% | – | 23% | 10% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 411] | – | |||
Data for Progress [378] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 334 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 36% | 18% | – | 3% | – | 27% | 14% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 412] | – | |||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Elucd [379] | Feb 26–Mar 1, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 25% | 15% | – | 6% | – | 26% | 12% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 413] | 10% | |||
East Carolina University [380] | Feb 27–28, 2020 | 499 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 29% | 14% | – | 4% | – | 25% | 11% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 414] | 9% | |||
High Point University [381] | Feb 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 14% | 20% | – | 8% | – | 28% | 12% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 415] | 7% | |||
472 (RV) | – | 14% | 18% | – | 8% | – | 31% | 11% | – | 11% [lower-alpha 416] | 7% | |||||
Spry Strategies/Civitas [382] | Feb 26–27, 2020 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 27% | 16% | – | 4% | – | 19% | 11% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 417] | 15% | |||
Marist College [383] | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 24% | 15% | – | 7% | – | 26% | 11% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 418] | 7% | |||
974 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 22% | 15% | – | 7% | – | 27% | 11% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 419] | 8% | |||||
Data for Progress [384] | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 536 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 25% | 18% | – | 10% | – | 27% | 11% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 420] | – | |||
Public Policy Polling [385] | Feb 23–24, 2020 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 23% | 17% | – | 9% | – | 20% | 11% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 421] | 11% [lower-alpha 422] | |||
Meredith College [386] | Feb 16–24, 2020 | 430 (LV) | – | 17.9% | 17.0% | 0.7% | 10.0% | – | 19.5% | 10.9% | – | 7.6% [lower-alpha 423] | 16.5% [lower-alpha 424] | |||
Spry Strategies/Civitas [387] | Feb 21–23, 2020 | 561 (LV) | ± 3.75% | 20% | 20% | – | 3% | – | 20% | 9% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 425] | 14% | |||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [388] | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 16% | 19% | – | 10% | – | 23% | 13% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 426] | 6% | |||
SurveyUSA/WRAL News [389] | Feb 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 20% | 22% | – | 11% | – | 22% | 8% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 427] | 11% | |||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
High Point University [390] | Jan 31–Feb 6, 2020 | 225 (LV) | – | 24% | 16% | 0% | 8% | – | 20% | 11% | 3% | 9% [lower-alpha 428] | 8% | |||
399 (RV) | – | 19% | 13% | 1% | 6% | – | 25% | 12% | 4% | 8% [lower-alpha 429] | 12% | |||||
Public Policy Polling [391] | Feb 4–5, 2020 | 604 (LV) | – | 25% | 14% | – | 9% | – | 16% | 12% | 5% | 7% [lower-alpha 430] | 13% [lower-alpha 431] | |||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling [392] | Jan 10–12, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 31% | 8% | 1% | 6% | – | 18% | 15% | 5% | 6% [lower-alpha 432] | 11% [lower-alpha 433] | |||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg launches his campaign | ||||||||||||||||
Fox News [393] | Nov 10–13, 2019 | 669 | ± 3.5% | 37% | – | 2% | 6% | 4% | 14% | 15% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 434] | 10% | |||
HighPoint University [394] | Nov 1–7, 2019 | 347 [lower-alpha 435] | ± 6.4% | 33% | – | 2% | 4% | 5% | 18% | 13% | 2% | 6% [lower-alpha 436] | 10% | |||
1,049 [lower-alpha 437] | ± 3.6% | 18% | – | 2% | 4% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 7% [lower-alpha 438] | 23% | |||||
Siena Research/New York Times [395] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 324 | – | 29% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 13% | 15% | 0% | 3% [lower-alpha 439] | 32% | |||
High Point University [396] | Sep 13–19, 2019 | 348 (A) | – | 31% | – | 4% | 3% | 6% | 20% | 15% | 4% | 3% [lower-alpha 440] | 9% | |||
SurveyUSA/Civitas [397] | Aug 1–5, 2019 | 534 | ± 6.1% | 36% | – | 1% | 5% | 8% | 15% | 13% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 441] | 17% | |||
Emerson College [398] | May 31 – Jun 3, 2019 | 397 | ± 4.9% | 39% | – | 1% | 8% | 5% | 22% | 15% | 1% | 7% [lower-alpha 442] | – |
The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [399] | March 3, 2020 | February 17–March 2, 2020 | 28.0% | 23.7% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 18.5% | |||
RealClear Politics [400] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | |||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [401] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 30.6% | 22.1% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 1.1% | 18.9% | |||
Average | 29.3% | 22.9% | 14.85% | 12.95% | 1.3% | 18.7% | |||||
Oklahoma primary results (March 3, 2020) | 38.7% | 25.4% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 6.9% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Oklahoma Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | ||||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [402] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 472 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 38% | 11% | 1% | – | 1% | 26% | 13% | 9% [lower-alpha 443] | – | ||||
Data for Progress [403] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 35% | 19% | – | – | – | 28% | 16% | 2% [lower-alpha 444] | – | ||||
SoonerPoll [404] | Feb 17–21, 2020 | 409 | 4.84% | 21% | 20% | 10% | – | 7% | 13% | 9% | 2% [lower-alpha 445] | 19% | ||||
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associated [405] | Feb 10–13, 2020 | 172 (LV) | – | 12% | 20% | 1% | – | 6% | 14% | 8% | 21% [lower-alpha 446] | 9% | ||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
SoonerPoll [406] | Jul 17–27, 2019 | 152 | – | 26% | – | 6% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 11% [lower-alpha 447] | 34% |
The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [407] | March 3, 2020 | February 28–March 2, 2020 | 31.0% | 27.0% | 18.5% | 12.0% | 0.5% | 11.0% | |||
RealClear Politics [408] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | |||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [409] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 29.0% | 24.7% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 18.1% | |||
Average | 30.0% | 25.85% | 17.1% | 12.15% | 0.35% | 14.55% | |||||
Tennessee primary results (March 3, 2020) | 41.7% | 25.0% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 0.4% | 7.0% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Tennessee Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [410] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 1,527 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 17% | 8% | – | 27% | 9% | 11% [lower-alpha 448] | – | |||||
Data for Progress [411] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 368 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 34% | 20% | 2% | – | 27% | 15% | 3% [lower-alpha 449] | – | |||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
SurveyMonkey [412] | Jul 2–16, 2019 | 128 | ± 11.2% | 33% | – | 6% | 12% | 13% | 18% | 11% [lower-alpha 450] | – |
The Texas Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270 to Win [413] | Mar 2, 2020 | Feb 17-Mar 1, 2020 | 30.2% | 25.6% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 1.0% | 12.8% | |
RealClear Politics [414] | Mar 2, 2020 | Feb 27-Mar 1, 2020 | 29.5% | 28.0% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 8.0% | |
FiveThirtyEight [415] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 28.2% | 25.5% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 0.4% | 16.1% | |
Average | 29.0% | 26.5% | 17.1% | 13.8% | 0.9% | 12.6% | |||
Texas primary results (March 3, 2020) | 30.0% | 34.5% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 0.4% | 9.3% |
Polling from January 1, 2020, to March 3, 2020 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
Swayable [416] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 1,378 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 28% | 12% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 451] | – | ||
Data for Progress [417] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 30% | 20% | 4% | 3% | 28% | 15% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 452] | – | ||
AtlasIntel [418] | Feb 24-Mar 2, 2020 | 486 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 25% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 35% | 9% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 453] | 4% | ||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
Emerson College/Nexstar [419] | Feb 29-Mar 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 26% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 31% | 14% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 454] | – | ||
Elucd [420] | Feb 26-Mar 1, 2020 | 833 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 20% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 31% | 13% | – | – | 11% | ||
YouGov/CBS News [421] | Feb 27–29, 2020 | 635 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 30% | 17% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 455] | – | ||
Marist College [422] | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 556 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 19% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 34% | 10% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 456] | 9% | ||
1,050 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 35% | 8% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 457] | 9% | ||||
Data for Progress [423] | Feb 23–27, 2020 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 5% | 30% | 13% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 458] | – | ||
CNN/SSRS [424] | Feb 22–26, 2020 | 387 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 29% | 15% | – | 0% | 5% [lower-alpha 459] | ||
Latino Decisions/Univision/ University of Houston [425] | Feb 21–26, 2020 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 26% | 11% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 460] | 6% | ||
University of Texas at Tyler [426] | Feb 17–26, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 19% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 29% | 10% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 461] | 5% | ||
Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas [427] | Feb 24–25, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | – [lower-alpha 462] | 11% | 7% | 25% | 17% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 463] | 5% [lower-alpha 464] | ||
24% | 17% | 10% | 4% | 24% | 14% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 465] | 5% [lower-alpha 466] | ||||||
Nevada caucuses | ||||||||||||||
University of Massachusetts Lowell [428] | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 20% | 18% | 7% | 9% | 23% | 14% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 467] | 3% | ||
YouGov/University of Houston [429] | Feb 6–18, 2020 | 1,352 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 20% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 20% | 17% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 468] | 5% | ||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune [430] | Jan 31-Feb 9, 2020 | 575 (LV) | ± 4.09% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 13% [lower-alpha 469] | – | ||
University of Texas At Tyler/Dallas News [431] | Jan 21–30, 2020 | 372 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 34% | 16% | 4% | 3% | 18% | 17% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 470] | – | ||
Data for Progress [432] [upper-alpha 1] | Jan 16–21, 2020 | 615 (LV) | ± 6.5% | 26% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 20% | 14% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 471] | 12% | ||
Texas Lyceum [433] [ permanent dead link ] | Jan 10–19, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.89% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 26% | 13% | 0% | 5% [lower-alpha 472] | 7% | ||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
Castro withdraws from the race |
Polling before January 2020 | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Julian Castro | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |
CNN/SSRS [434] | Dec 4–8, 2019 | 327 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 35% | 2% | 9% | 3% | – | 1% | – | 15% | 13% | 3% | 11% [lower-alpha 473] | 9% | |
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
University of Texas at Tyler [435] | Nov 5–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 2% | – | 18% | 19% | 2% | 4% [lower-alpha 474] | – | |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
University of Texas/ Texas Tribune [436] | Oct 18–27, 2019 | 541 | ± 4.2% | 23% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 4% | 4% [lower-alpha 475] | 5% | |
University of Texas at Tyler [437] | Sep 13–15, 2019 | 474 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 28% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 19% | 17% | 11% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 476] | – | |
Texas Tribune [438] | Aug 29–Sep 15, 2019 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 26% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 14% | 12% | 18% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 477] | 6% | |
Quinnipiac University [439] | Sep 4–9, 2019 | 456 | ± 5.5% | 28% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 12% | 12% | 18% | 1 | 1% [lower-alpha 478] | 12% | |
Univision/UH [440] | Aug 31– Sep 6, 2019 | 1004 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 12% | 5% | – | 19% | 13% | 12% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 479] | 10% | |
Ragnar Research [441] | Sep 3–5, 2019 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 23% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 7% | – | 12% | 12% | 15% | – [lower-alpha 480] | 7% [lower-alpha 481] | 18% | |
Climate Nexus [442] | Aug 20–25, 2019 | 639 | – | 24% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 7% | – | 21% | 12% | 12% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 482] | 9% | |
TEXAS LYCEUM [443] | Aug 16–25, 2019 | 358 | ± 5.2% | 24% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 18% | 13% | 15% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 483] | 2% | |
Emerson College [444] | Aug 1–3, 2019 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 28% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 5% | <1% | 19% | 16% | 14% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 484] | – | |
YouGov/CBS News [445] | Jul 9–18, 2019 | 910 | ± 4.2% | 27% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 1% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 485] | – | |
YouGov/University of Texas [446] | May 31 – Jun 9, 2019 | 483 | ± 5.0% | 23% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 0% | 8% [lower-alpha 486] | 7% | |
Quinnipiac University [447] | May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 | 407 | ± 5.8% | 30% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | <1% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 1% | 5% [lower-alpha 487] | 8% | |
Change Research [448] | May 30 – Jun 3, 2019 | 1,218 | ± 2.8% | 24% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 1% | 27% | 13% | 12% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 488] | – | |
Emerson College [449] | Apr 25–28, 2019 | 342 | ± 5.3% | 23% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 11% [lower-alpha 489] | – | |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Change Research [450] | Apr 18–22, 2019 | 1,578 | ± 2.5% | 20% | 2% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 25% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 490] | – | |
– | 4% | 21% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 33% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% [lower-alpha 491] | – |
The Utah Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270 to Win [451] | March 3, 2020 | Feb 22–March 2, 2020 | 26.3% | 21.7% | 18.7% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 20.0% | |
FiveThirtyEight [452] | March 3, 2020 | Until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 26.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 20.9% | |
Average | 26.3% | 20.9% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 1.4% | 20.5% | |||
Utah primary results (March 3, 2020) | 36.1% | 18.4% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 0.8% | 13.0% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Utah Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [453] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 143 (LV) | ± 9.0% | 27% | 29% | 7% | 6% | 22% | 6% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 492] | – | ||||
Data for Progress [454] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 622 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 23% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 29% | 19% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 493] | – | ||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
HarrisX/University of Utah/Deseret News [455] | Feb 22–26, 2020 | 298 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 6% | 19% | 18% | 4% | 28% | 15% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 494] | 8% | ||||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk [456] | Jan 18–22, 2020 | 132 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 4% [lower-alpha 495] | 21% |
The Vermont Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |||
270 to Win [457] | March 3, 2020 | February 4–March 2, 2020 | 52.0% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 1.0% | 12.0% | |||
RealClear Politics [458] | March 3, 2020 | Insufficient recent polling to supply an average. | |||||||||
FiveThirtyEight [459] | March 3, 2020 | until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 53.0% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 0.9% | 12.6% | |||
Average | 52.5% | 14.1% | 10.55% | 9.6% | 0.95% | 12.3% | |||||
Vermont primary results (March 3, 2020) | 50.6% | 12.5% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 4.8% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Vermont Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Un- decided | |||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [460] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 147 (LV) | ± 11.0% | 11% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 48% | 17% | 2% [lower-alpha 496] | – | |||||
Data for Progress [461] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 236 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 16% | 8% | 1% | – | 57% | 16% | 2% [lower-alpha 497] | – | |||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Vermont Public Radio [462] | Feb 4–10, 2020 | 332 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 51% | 13% | 2% [lower-alpha 498] | 7% |
The Virginia Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates Polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Michael Bloomberg | Elizabeth Warren | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] | ||
270 to Win [463] | March 3, 2020 | Until March 3, 2020 | 28.8% | 20.0% | 17.3% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 23.9% [lower-alpha 499] | ||
RealClear Politics [464] | March 3, 2020 | Until March 3, 2020 | 44.0% | 24.5% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | ||
FiveThirtyEight [465] | Mar 3, 2020 | until Mar 3, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 39.9% | 21.0% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 0.5% | 13.1% | ||
Average | 37.6% | 21.8% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 0.4% | 13.2% | ||||
Virginia primary results (March 3, 2020) | 53.3% | 23.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 0.9% | 2.2% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Virginia Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Un- decided | ||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [466] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 1,435 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 20% | – | 4% | – | 3% | – | 20% | 11% | 6% [lower-alpha 500] | – | ||
AtlasIntel [467] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 545 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 11% | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 28% | 10% | 3% [lower-alpha 501] | 4% | ||
Change Research [468] | Mar 1–2, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 45% | 10% | – | – | – | 4% | – | 25% | 13% | 3% [lower-alpha 502] | – | ||
Data for Progress [469] | Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 | 327 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 39% | 18% | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | 17% | 1% [lower-alpha 503] | – | ||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Data for Progress [470] | Feb 23 – 25, 2020 | 499 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 19% | 17% | – | 12% | – | 5% | – | 28% | 17% | 2% [lower-alpha 504] | – | ||
Monmouth University [471] | Feb 13 – 16, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 18% | 22% | – | 11% | – | 9% | – | 22% | 5% | 1% [lower-alpha 505] | 11% | ||
51% [lower-alpha 506] | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 507] | 7% | ||||||
– | 47% [lower-alpha 508] | – | – | – | – | – | 41% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 509] | 7% | ||||||
– | – | – | 42% [lower-alpha 510] | – | – | – | 44% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 511] | 7% | ||||||
– | – | – | – | – | 42% [lower-alpha 512] | – | 45% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 513] | 7% | ||||||
Christopher Newport University [472] | Feb 3 – 23, 2020 | 561 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 22% | 13% | – | 8% | – | 5% | – | 17% | 8% | 6% [lower-alpha 514] | 16% [lower-alpha 515] | ||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
University of Mary Washington [473] | Sep 3 – 15, 2019 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 23% | – | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 9% | 46% [lower-alpha 516] | – | ||
Hampton University [474] | May 29 – Jun 6, 2019 | 1,126 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | – | 2% | 11% | 7% | <1% | 3% | 17% | 13% | 10% [lower-alpha 517] | – | ||
Change Research [475] | Apr 26–30, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | – | 3% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 20% | 10% | 5% [lower-alpha 518] | – |
The Idaho Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Tulsi Gabbard | Bernie Sanders | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable [476] | Mar 8–9, 2020 | 833 (LV) | ± 7% | 52% | 2% | 37% | 9% | – |
Data for Progress [477] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 329 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 51% | 2% | 47% | – | – |
The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 519] | |
270 to Win [478] | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 57.0% | 32.3% | 1.3% | 9.4% | |
RealClear Politics [479] | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 55.7% | 33.3% | 1.3% | 9.7% | |
FiveThirtyEight [480] | Mar 10, 2020 | until Mar 9, 2020 [lower-alpha 520] | 55.3% | 31.9% | 1.2% | 11.6% | |
Average | 56.0% | 32.5% | 1.3% | 10.2% | |||
Michigan primary results (March 10, 2020) | 52.9% | 36.4% | 0.6% | 10.1% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |
Swayable [481] | Mar 9, 2020 | 3,126 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | 10% [lower-alpha 521] | – | |
AtlasIntel [482] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 528 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | 40% | 1% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 522] | 5% | |
Data for Progress [483] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 320 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 59% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | – | 2% [lower-alpha 523] | – | |
Mitchell Research & Communications [484] | Mar 8, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 1% | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 33% | 3% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 524] | 5% | |
Target Insyght [485] | Mar 8, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 65% | 2% | – | – | – | 1% | – | 24% | 3% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 525] | 1% | |
Concord Public Opinion Partners/[[ The Welcome Party]] [486] | Mar 7–8, 2020 | 305 (LV) | – | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | 1% [lower-alpha 526] | 22% | |
YouGov/Yahoo News [487] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | –(RV) [lower-alpha 527] | ± 5.8% | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | |
Monmouth University [488] | Mar 5–8, 2020 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 3% | – | <1% | – | <1% | – | 36% | 1% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 528] | 2% | |
ROI Rocket [489] | Mar 4–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | |
The Progress Campaign (D) [490] | Mar 3–7, 2020 | 417 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 44% | – | – | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 529] | |
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press [491] | Mar 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27% | – | – | 9% [lower-alpha 530] | 13% [lower-alpha 531] | |
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV [492] | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 11% | – | 6% | – | 3% | – | 23% | 7% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 532] | 16% | |
South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison [493] | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 662 (LV) | – | 16% | 13% | – | 11% | – | 8% | – | 25% | 13% | – | – | 14% [lower-alpha 533] | |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
Baldwin Wallace University/[[Oakland University]]/Ohio Northern University [494] | Jan 8–20, 2020 | 477 (RV) | – | 27% | 9.1% | – | 6.3% | – | 1.9% | – | 21.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% [lower-alpha 534] | 10.6% | |
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [495] | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 34% | – | 3% | 8% | 3% | 0% | – | 28% | 19% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 535] | – | |
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Siena Research/New York Times [496] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 203 | – | 30% | – | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 21% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 536] | 23% | |
Kaiser Family Foundation [497] | Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 | 208 (LV) | – | 19% | – | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 25% | 1% | 0% [lower-alpha 537] | 27% | |
Denno Research [498] | Sep 21–24, 2019 | 217 | – | 27% | – | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 23% | 1% | 4% [lower-alpha 538] | 23% [lower-alpha 539] | |
Climate Nexus [499] | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 324 (LV) | – | 35% | – | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 14% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 540] | 13% [lower-alpha 541] | |
Zogby Analytics [500] | May 23–29, 2019 | 268 | ± 6.0% | 27% | – | 1% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 542] | – | |
Denno Research [501] | May 8–10, 2019 | 235 | – | 37% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 4% [lower-alpha 543] | 23% | |
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [502] | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 317 | ± 5.5% | 40% | – | 3% | 0% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 23% | 11% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 544] | – |
The Mississippi Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270toWin [503] | March 10, 2020 | March 4–9, 2020 | 72.5% | 25.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | |
FiveThirtyEight [504] | March 10, 2020 | until March 9, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 70.7% | 23.4% | 0.4% | 5.5% | |
Average | 71.6% | 24.2% | 0.5% | 3.7% | |||
Mississippi primary results (March 10, 2020) | 81.1% | 14.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Mississippi Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||||
Swayable [505] | Mar 8–9, 2020 | 1,247 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 68% | – | – | – | 28% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 545] | – | |||||
Data for Progress [506] | Mar 4–7, 2020 | 340 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 77% | – | – | – | 22% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 546] | – | |||||
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
NBC News/SurveyMonkey [507] | Jul 2–16, 2019 | 282 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 21% | 7% | 5% [lower-alpha 547] | 3% | |||||
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College [508] | Jun 20–21, 2019 | 523 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 6% [lower-alpha 548] | 21% |
The Missouri Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
270 to Win [509] | March 10, 2020 | March 4–9, 2020 | 57.6% | 34.4% | 2.7% | 5.3% |
RealClear Politics [510] | March 10, 2020 | March 4–9, 2020 | 61.0% | 30.7% | 2.5% | 5.8% |
FiveThirtyEight [511] | March 10, 2020 | until March 9, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 60.3% | 32.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
Average | 59.6% | 32.6% | 2.6% | 5.2% | ||
Missouri primary results (March 10, 2020) | 60.1% | 34.6% | 0.7% | 4.6% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Missouri Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||
Swayable [512] | Mar 9, 2020 | 2,037 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | – | – | – | – | – | 36% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 549] | – | |||
Øptimus [513] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 402 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 68% | – | – | – | – | – | 29% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 550] | – | |||
Data for Progress [514] | Mar 4–7, 2020 | 348 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | 32% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 551] | – | |||
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout [515] | Mar 4–5, 2020 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | – | – | – | – | – | 31% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 552] | 6% | |||
Emerson Polling/Nexstar [516] | Mar 4–5, 2020 | 425 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | – | – | – | – | – | 44% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 553] | <6% | |||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
The Progress Campaign (D) [517] | Feb 16–23, 2020 | 294 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 29% | 14% | 13% | – | 4% | – | 23% | 12% | 4% [lower-alpha 554] | – | |||
Americana Analytics [518] | Feb 20–21, 2020 | 1,198 (LV) | ± 2.83% | 22% | 17% | 11% | – | 9% | – | 11% | 10% | 1% [lower-alpha 555] | 17% | |||
Remington Research Group [519] | Jan 22–23, 2020 | 1,460 (LV) | – | 39% | 14% | 6% | – | 8% | – | 7% | 9% | 3% [lower-alpha 556] | 14% | |||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Show Me Victories [520] | Sept 13–16, 2019 | 400 | ± 5% | 34% | – | 10% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 22% | 8% [lower-alpha 557] | – | |||
Remington Research Group [521] | Jul 10–11, 2019 | 1,122 | – | 43% | – | 5% | 13% | – | 1% | 4% | 15% | – | 19% |
The North Dakota Democratic caucus is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Tulsi Gabbard | Bernie Sanders | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable [522] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 383 (LV) | ± 9% | 65% | 0% | 31% | 4% | – |
The Washington Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 558] | |
270 to Win [523] | Mar 10, 2020 | Feb 15 – Mar 9, 2020 | 33.5% | 34.0% | 1.3% | 34.7% | |
RealClear Politics [524] | Mar 9, 2020 | No averages at this time | |||||
FiveThirtyEight [525] | Mar 10, 2020 | until Mar 9, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 39.8% | 37.1% | 1.4% | 21.7% | |
Average | 36.65% | 36.55% | 1.35% | 28.2% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Washington Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Jay Inslee | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||
Swayable [526] | Mar 9, 2020 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | – | – | – | – | – | 37% | – | – | 25% [lower-alpha 559] | – | ||
Data for Progress [527] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 497 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 6% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 560] | – | ||
Survey USA/KING-TV [528] | Mar 4–6, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 36% | – | – | – | – | – | 35% | 10% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 561] | 5% | ||
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Data for Progress [529] | Mar 4–5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | – | – | – | – | – | 44% | 5% [lower-alpha 562] | – | 3% [lower-alpha 563] | – | ||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Elway Research/Cascade Public Media [530] | Feb 15–18, 2020 | 404 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 10% | 15% | 9% | – | – | 11% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 2% [lower-alpha 564] | 22% | ||
Yang withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Survey USA/KING-TV [531] | Jan 26–28, 2020 | 536 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 21% | 12% | 8% | – | – | 3% | 26% | 16% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 565] | 7% | ||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Inslee withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Zogby Analytics [532] | Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 | 1,265 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 19% | – | 5% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 18% | 14% | 2% | 11% [lower-alpha 566] | 16% |
The Arizona Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
270 to Win [533] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 3–16, 2020 | 50.6% | 29.4% | 1.0% | 19.0% |
RealClear Politics [534] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 6–15, 2020 | 51.7% | 33.7% | 1.0% | 13.6% |
FiveThirtyEight [535] | Mar 17, 2020 | until Mar 16, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 51.6% | 26.9% | 1.1% | 20.4% |
Average | 51.3% | 30.0% | 1.0% | 17.7% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | ||||
Swayable [536] | Mar 16, 2020 | 1,167 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | – | – | – | 29% | – | – | 19% [lower-alpha 567] | – | ||||
Marist/NBC News [537] | Mar 10–15, 2020 | 523 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 53% | – | – | – | 36% | – | – | 8% [lower-alpha 568] | 3% | ||||
913 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | – | – | – | 37% | – | – | 9% [lower-alpha 569] | 5% | ||||||
Monmouth University [538] | Mar 11–14, 2020 | 373 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 5% | 3% | – | 31% | 3% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 570] | 5% | ||||
Latino Decisions/Univision/[[ Arizona State University]] [539] | Mar 6–11, 2020 | 541 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 57% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | – | 38% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | – | 5% [lower-alpha 571] | ||||
51% | – | – | – | 34% | – | – | 6% [lower-alpha 572] | 8% | ||||||||
Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [540] | Mar 3–4, 2020 | 398 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 12% | – | – | 17% | 13% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 573] | 9% | ||||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights [541] | Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019 | 260 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 29% | – | 9% | 5% | 16% | 18% | 4% | 19% [lower-alpha 574] | – | ||||
Emerson Polling [542] | Oct 25–28, 2019 | 339 | ± 5.2% | 28% | – | 12% | 4% | 21% | 21% | 5% | 7% [lower-alpha 575] | – | ||||
Siena Research/New York Times [543] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 209 | – | 24% | – | 5% | 3% | 16% | 15% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 576] | 31% | ||||
Change Research [544] | Sep 27–28, 2019 | 396 (LV) | – | 15% | – | 13% | 4% | 19% | 35% | 8% | 7% [lower-alpha 577] | – | ||||
Bendixen&Amandi [545] | Sep 9–12, 2019 | 250 | ± 4.3% | 29% | – | 5% | 4% | 18% | 24% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 578] | 10% | ||||
Zogby Analytics [546] | May 23–29, 2019 | 197 | ± 7.0% | 35% | – | 6% | 4% | 16% | 10% | 0% | 11% [lower-alpha 579] | – |
The Florida Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020. [18]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270 to Win [547] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 5–16, 2020 | 65.5% | 23.0% | 1.8% | 9.7% | |
RealClear Politics [548] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 64.7% | 25.7% | 2.0% | 7.6% | |
FiveThirtyEight [549] | Mar 17, 2020 | until Mar 16, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 63.8% | 24.7% | 1.4% | 10.1% | |
Average | 64.7% | 24.5% | 1.7% | 9.1% |
Polling from February 12, 2020, to March 17, 2020 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Un- decided | ||
Swayable [550] | Mar 16, 2020 | 4,035 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 64% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 580] | – | ||
AtlasIntel [551] | Mar 14–16, 2020 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 67% | – | – | – | 27% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 581] | 2% | ||
Point Blank Political [552] | Mar 11–13, 2020 | 3,165 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 61% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | – | 32% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | 7% | ||
57% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 29% | 4% | 1% [lower-alpha 582] | 5% | ||||||
Emerson College/Nexstar [553] | Mar 11–12, 2020 | 434 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 65% | – | – | – | 27% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 583] | 6% | ||
Gravis Marketing [554] | Mar 10–12, 2020 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 66% | – | – | – | 25% | – | – | 9% | ||
ROI Rocket [555] | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 877 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 67% | – | – | – | 27% | – | – [lower-alpha 584] | – [lower-alpha 584] | ||
Latino Decisions/Univision [556] | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 531 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 67% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | – | 32% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | 2% | ||
63% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 585] | 4% | ||||||
University of North Florida [557] | Mar 5–10, 2020 | 1,502 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 66% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 22% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 586] | 7% | ||
St Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com [558] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | 2,480 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 69% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 1% | 0% [lower-alpha 587] | 9% | ||
Point Blank Political [559] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | 3,376 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 61% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | – | 32% [lower-alpha 571] | – | – | 7% | ||
55% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 29% | 4% | 2% [lower-alpha 588] | 7% | ||||||
Florida Atlantic University [560] | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 399 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 589] | 10% | ||
Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
St Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com [561] | Mar 4, 2020 | 1,882 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 61% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 0% [lower-alpha 590] | 6% | ||
Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
St Pete Polls [562] | Feb 25–26, 2020 | 2,788 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 34% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 13% | 5% | 1% [lower-alpha 591] | 10% | ||
Saint Leo University [563] | Feb 17–22, 2020 | 342 (LV) | – | 25% | 25% | 11% | 5% | 17% | 7% | 4% [lower-alpha 592] | 7% | ||
Florida Southern College [564] | Feb 17–21, 2020 | 313 (LV) | ± 5.54% | 22% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 18% | 12% | 1% [lower-alpha 593] | 9% | ||
St Pete Polls [562] | Feb 18–19, 2020 | 2,412 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 27% | 32% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 2% [lower-alpha 594] | 10% | ||
Tel Opinion Research/Politico/[[ Let’s Preserve the American Dream]] [565] | Feb 13–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 20% | 26% | 8% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 5% [lower-alpha 595] | 16% | ||
St Pete Polls [566] | Feb 12–13, 2020 | 3,047 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 26% | 27% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 1% [lower-alpha 596] | 11% |
Polling before February 11, 2020 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Un- decided |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | |||||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls [567] | Jan 27–28, 2020 | 2,590 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 41% | 17% | – | 6% | – | 5% | – | 9% | 7% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 597] | 10% |
Tel Opinion Research/Let’s Preserve the American Dream/Politico [568] | Jan 21–23, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% [lower-alpha 598] | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 18% | – | – | 20% |
29% | 4% | – | 4% | – | 4% | – | 17% | 12% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 599] | 28% | ||||
Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
Florida Atlantic University [569] | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 494 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 7% | 3% | 3% | – | 6% | – | 16% | 10% | 5% | 5% [lower-alpha 600] | 4% [lower-alpha 601] |
Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
Siena College/New York Times [570] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 650 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 27% | – | 0% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 13% | 19% | 0% | 1% [lower-alpha 602] | 29% |
Tel Opinion Research [571] | Sep 15–18, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.54% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10% | 26% | – | – | 18% |
37% | – | – | 5% | 6% | – | – | 9% | 18% | 2% | – | 20% | ||||
24% | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 5% | 11% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 603] | 49% | ||||
Florida Atlantic University [572] | Sep 12–15, 2019 | 407 | ± 4.9% | 34% | – | 1% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 14% | 24% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 604] | 6% |
St. Pete Polls [573] | Jun 22–23, 2019 | 2,022 | ± 2.2% | 47% | – | 3% | 8% | 6% | – | 2% | 8% | 12% | – | 7% | 6% |
Change Research [574] | Jun 16–17, 2019 | 1,130 | ± 2.9% | 33% | – | 2% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 20% | 15% | 3% | 2% [lower-alpha 605] | – |
Quinnipiac University [575] | Jun 12–17, 2019 | 417 | ± 5.8% | 41% | – | 1% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 12% | <1% | 1% [lower-alpha 606] | 12% |
Climate Nexus [576] | Jun 7–11, 2019 | 676 | ± 2.6% | 32% | – | 2% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 9% [lower-alpha 607] | 14% |
Zogby Analytics [577] | May 23–29, 2019 | 228 | ± 6.5% | 34% | – | 2% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 608] | – |
Florida Atlantic University [578] | May 16–19, 2019 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 39% | – | 1% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 12% | 1% | 14% [lower-alpha 609] | – |
Tel Opinion Research [161] * | May 8, 2019 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 39% | – | 1% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 5% | – | – | 28% |
Biden announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Tel Opinion Research [161] * | Mar 21, 2019 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 37% | – | 2% | – | 4% | 1% | 5% | 13% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
O'Rourke announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Bendixen & Amandi International [579] | Mar 1–4, 2019 | 300 | – | 26% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 0% [lower-alpha 610] | 46% |
Sanders announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Warren announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Booker announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Harris announces her candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Saint Leo University [580] | May 25–31, 2018 | – | – | 21% | – | 3% | – | 4% | – | – | 11% | 7% | – | 34% [lower-alpha 611] | 17% |
The Illinois Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Tulsi Gabbard | Un- decided [lower-alpha 1] | |||||
270toWin [581] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 7–16, 2020 | 58.6% | 30.2% | 2.0% | 9.2% | |||||
RealClear Politics [582] | Mar 17, 2020 | Mar 10–12, 2020 | 60.0% | 30.5% | – [lower-alpha 612] | 9.5% | |||||
FiveThirtyEight [583] | Mar 17, 2020 | until Mar 16, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 61.5% | 26.6% | 1.5% | 10.4% | |||||
Average | 60.0% | 29.1% | 1.8% | 9.1% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Illinois Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | ||||
Swayable [584] | Mar 16, 2020 | 1,861 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 63% | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 613] | – | ||||
Emerson College/Nexstar [585] | Mar 11–12, 2020 | 567 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 57% | – | – | – | – | 36% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 614] | 6% | ||||
Gravis Marketing [586] | Mar 10–12, 2020 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 63% | – | – | – | – | 25% | – | – | 12% | ||||
ROI Rocket [587] | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 960 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 57% | – | – | – | – | 34% | – | – [lower-alpha 584] | – [lower-alpha 584] | ||||
Victory Research [588] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.83% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 36% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 615] | 8% | ||||
Ogden & Fry/Northwest Side GOP Club [589] | Mar 8, 2020 | 457(LV) | ± 4.58% | 64% | – | – | – | – | 32% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 616] | – [lower-alpha 617] | ||||
55% | – | – | – | – | 26% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 618] | 16% | ||||||||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Victory Research [590] | Feb 17–19, 2020 | 1,200(LV) | ± 2.83% | 20.3% | 14.5% | 11.4% | – | 6.3% | 25.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% [lower-alpha 619] | 10.9% | ||||
Southern Illinois University [591] | Feb 10–17, 2020 | 475 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 14% | 17% | 13% | – | 8% | 22% | 6% | 2% [lower-alpha 620] | 17% | ||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Victory Research [592] | Nov 27 – Dec 1, 2019 | 1,500 (RV) | ±2.83% | 23.2% | 3.6% | 15.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 15.0% | 17.4% | 12.3% [lower-alpha 621] | 6.9% | ||||
Victory Research [593] | Jul 26–29, 2019 | 1,200 | ± 2.83% | 36.1% | – | 9.3% | 8.6% | 1.7% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.2% [lower-alpha 622] | 7.3% |
The Wisconsin Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on April 7, 2020. [18]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||||
270 to Win [594] | April 5, 2020 | March 6–29, 2020 | 55.3% | 37.0% | 7.7% | ||||||
RealClear Politics [595] | April 5, 2020 | March 6–29, 2020 | 55.3% | 37.0% | 7.7% | ||||||
FiveThirtyEight [596] | April 5, 2020 | until March 29, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 51.6% | 36.0% | 12.4% | ||||||
Average | 54.1% | 36.7% | 9.2% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Wisconsin Democratic Primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Un- decided | ||
Marquette University Law School [597] | Mar 24–29, 2020 | 394 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | 34% | – | – | – | 4% [lower-alpha 623] | ||
Public Policy Polling [598] | Mar 10–11, 2020 | 898(LV) | – | 55% | – | – | – | – | – | 39% | – | – | 3% [lower-alpha 624] | 3% | ||
YouGov/Yahoo News [599] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | –(RV) [lower-alpha 527] | ± 6.4% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | – | – | – | ||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Marquette University Law School [600] | Feb 19–23, 2020 | 490 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 15% | 17% | – | 13% | – | 11% | 29% | 9% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 625] | 4% | ||
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison [601] | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 428 (LV) | – | 13% | 13% | – | 12% | – | 9% | 30% | 12% | – | – | 11% [lower-alpha 626] | ||
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University [602] | Jan 8–20, 2020 | 464 (RV) | – | 21.8% | 8.4% | – | 7.7% | – | 3% | 28.4% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% [lower-alpha 627] | 10.9% | ||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Marquette University Law School [603] | Jan 8–12, 2020 | 358 (LV) | ± 6.3% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 15% | – | 4% | 19% | 14% | 6% | 3% [lower-alpha 628] | 9% | ||
Fox News [604] | Jan 5–8, 2020 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 23% | 7% | 3% | 9% | – | 4% | 21% | 13% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 629] | 10% | ||
Marquette University Law School [605] | Dec 3–8, 2019 | 358 (LV) | ± 6.3% | 23% | 3% | 4% | 15% | – | 3% | 19% | 16% | 3% | 3% [lower-alpha 630] | 11% | ||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Marquette University Law School [606] | Nov 13–17, 2019 | 801 (RV) | – | 30% | – | 3% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 17% | 15% | 2% | 6% [lower-alpha 631] | 10% | ||
Siena Research/New York Times [607] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 292 | – | 23% | – | 1% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 632] | 19% | ||
Kaiser Family Foundation [608] | Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 | 274 (LV) | – | 17% | – | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 22% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 633] | 35% | ||
Fox News [609] | Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 28% | – | 2% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 17% | 22% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 634] | 9% | ||
Marquette University Law School [610] | Aug 25–29, 2019 | 444 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 28% | – | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 20% | 17% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 635] | 13% | ||
Change Research [611] | Aug 9–11, 2019 | 935 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 20% | – | 1% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 24% | 29% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 636] | – | ||
Change Research [612] | Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 | 1261 (LV) | – | 18% | – | 3% | 15% | 17% | 1% | 19% | 19% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 637] | – | ||
Zogby Analytics [613] | May 23–29, 2019 | 238 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 28% | – | 2% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 14% | 0% | 2% [lower-alpha 638] | – | ||
Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Zogby Analytics [614] | Apr 15–18, 2019 | 485 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 24% | – | 4% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 11% [lower-alpha 639] | 14% | ||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College [615] | Mar 15–17, 2019 | 324 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 24% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 39% | 14% | 1% | 10% [lower-alpha 640] | – |
The Ohio Democratic primary was originally scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020. [18] Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary was delayed. Initially, the Governor suggested the primary be held on June 2, 2020, [616] however, further deliberations resulted in the legislature and Governor agreeing on suspending in-person voting, and selecting a mail-in ballot deadline of April 28, 2020. [617]
Polling Aggregation | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | |
270 to Win [618] | Mar 16, 2020 | Mar 10–13, 2020 | 57.5% | 35.0% | 7.5% | |
RealClear Politics [619] | Mar 16, 2020 | Mar 10–13, 2020 | 57.5% | 35.0% | 7.5% | |
FiveThirtyEight [620] | Mar 16, 2020 | until Mar 13, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 58.7% | 32.3% | 9.0% | |
Average | 57.9% | 34.1% | 8.0% |
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided | |||
Sanders suspends his campaign: Politico Story | ||||||||||||||||
Swayable [621] | Mar 16, 2020 | 2,027 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 66% | – | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | 10% [lower-alpha 641] | – | |||
Marist/NBC News [622] | Mar 10–13, 2020 | 486 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 58% | – | – | – | – | 35% | – | – | 4% [lower-alpha 642] | 4% | |||
830 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | – | – | – | – | 36% | – | – | 4% [lower-alpha 643] | 4% | |||||
Emerson College/Nexstar [623] | Mar 11–12, 2020 | 464 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 57% | – | – | – | – | 35% | – | – | 1% [lower-alpha 644] | 7% | |||
ROI Rocket [624] | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 61% | – | – | – | – | 33% | – | – | – [lower-alpha 584] | – [lower-alpha 584] | |||
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race: NYT Story | ||||||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race: NYT Story | ||||||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race: NYT Story | ||||||||||||||||
South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
New Hampshire primary; Yang and Bennet withdraw from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
Iowa Caucuses | ||||||||||||||||
Baldwin Wallace University/[[Oakland<br]]/[[>University/Ohio Northern University]] [625] | Jan 8–20, 2020 | 428 (RV) | – | 32.1% | 10.1% | – | 6.1% | – | 20.8% | 10.7% | 2.1% | 5.7% [lower-alpha 645] | 9.8% | |||
Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Williamson withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Castro withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Ryan withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Climate Nexus [626] | Oct 1–7, 2019 | 443 (LV) | – | 32% | – | 3% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 21% | 3% | 17% [lower-alpha 646] | – [note 1] | |||
Emerson [627] | Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 | 353 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 29% | – | 0% | 5% | 7% | 27% | 21% | 3% | 5% [lower-alpha 647] | 2% | |||
Quinnipiac [628] | Jul 17–22, 2019 | 556 | ± 5.1% | 31% | – | 1% | 6% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 1% | 6% [lower-alpha 648] | 11% | |||
Zogby Analytics [629] | May 23–29, 2019 | 222 | ± 6.6% | 29% | – | 3% | 6% | 5% | 19% | 12% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 649] | – |
The Kansas Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on May 2, 2020. [18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Tulsi Gabbard | Bernie Sanders | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends campaign | ||||||||
Gabbard withdraws from the race | ||||||||
Public Policy Polling [630] | Mar 10–11, 2020 | 550 (LV) | – | 59% | 3% | 35% | – | 4% |
The Oregon Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on May 19, 2020. [18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bernie Sanders | Joe Biden | Undecided | Beto O'Rourke | Kamala Harris | Elizabeth Warren | Cory Booker | Andrew Yang | Pete Buttigieg | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics [631] | Mar 18–19, 2019 | 238 | ± 6.4% | 27% | 26% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 7% [lower-alpha 650] |
The Delaware Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020. [632]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | |||||||||||||
Gabbard withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Data For Progress [633] | Nov 15–25, 2019 | 481 (LV) | – [lower-alpha 651] | 35% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 11% | 1% | 10% [lower-alpha 652] | 15% |
The Indiana Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on May 5, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020. [634]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | |||||||||||
O'Rourke, Harris, Buttigieg and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||
We Ask America [635] | Apr 29–May 5, 2019 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 33% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 23% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 653] | 15% |
The Maryland Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020. [636]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | |||||||||||||||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||||
Gonzales Research & Media Services [637] | Feb 22–28, 2020 | 331 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 19% | 15% | 5% | – | 4% | 23% | 8% | – | 27% | |||
Goucher College [638] | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 371 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 18% | 16% | 7% | – | 6% | 24% | 6% | 4% [lower-alpha 654] | 18% | |||
Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
Goucher College [638] | Sept 13–19, 2019 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 33% | – | 5% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 21% | 9% [lower-alpha 655] | 15% |
The Montana Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020. [18] Polls with a sample size of <100 are marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Steve Bullock | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | |||||||||||||
O'Rourke, Bullock, Harris, Yang, Buttigieg and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
Montana State University Billings [639] | Oct 7–16, 2019 | 40 (LV) | – | 15% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 40% | No voters | 2% [lower-alpha 656] | 25% |
The New Mexico democratic primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020. [18]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Tulsi Gabbard | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, Warren, and Gabbard withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||
Booker and Yang withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||||
Emerson Polling [640] | Jan 3–6, 2020 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 28% | 8% | 10% | 11% [lower-alpha 657] | - |
The Pennsylvania Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for June 2, 2020. [641]
Polling Aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||||
270 to Win [642] | Mar 18, 2020 | Feb 11–Mar 8, 2020 | 39.5% | 28.0% | 32.5% | ||||||
RealClear Politics [643] | Feb 23, 2020 | Jan 20–Feb 20, 2020 | 39.5% | 28.0% | 32.5% | ||||||
FiveThirtyEight [644] | Mar 8, 2020 | until Feb 20, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 54.4% | 29.3% | 16.3% | ||||||
Average | 44.5% | 28.4% | 27.1% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | |||||||||||||
YouGov/Yahoo News [645] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | –(RV) [lower-alpha 527] | ± 5.1% | 59% | – | – | – | – | – | 31% | – | – | – |
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison [646] | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 537 (LV) | – | 20% | 19% | – | 12% | – | – | 25% | 9% | 5% [lower-alpha 658] | 10% [lower-alpha 659] |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | |||||||||||||
Franklin & Marshall College [647] | Jan 20–26, 2020 | 292 (RV) | ± 9.0% | 22% | 7% | – | 6% | – | – | 15% | 14% | 18% [lower-alpha 660] | 19% |
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University]] [648] | Jan 8–20, 2020 | 502 (RV) | – | 31.3% | 9.1% | – | 6.5% | – | – | 20.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% [lower-alpha 661] | 11% |
Harris and Booker withdraw from the race | |||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
O'Rourke withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Franklin & Marshall College [649] | Oct 21–27, 2019 | 226 (RV) | ± 8.9% | 30% | – | 1% | 8% | 1% | <1% | 12% | 18% | 15% [lower-alpha 662] | 16% |
Siena Research/New York Times [650] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 304 | – | 28% | – | 0% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 14% | 16% | 3% [lower-alpha 663] | 30% |
Kaiser Family Foundation [651] | Sep 23–Oct 15, 2019 | 246 (LV) | – | 27% | – | 1% | 3% | 4% | No voters | 14% | 18% | 5% [lower-alpha 664] | 29% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc. [652] | Sep 30–Oct 6, 2019 | 307 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 17% | – | 0% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 9% | 7% [lower-alpha 665] | 52% |
Franklin & Marshall College [653] | Jul 29–Aug 4, 2019 | 295 | ± 8.7% | 28% | – | 2% | 6% | 8% | 1% | 12% | 21% | 3% [lower-alpha 666] | 19% |
Zogby Analytics [654] | May 23–29, 2019 | 246 | ± 6.3% | 46% | – | 2% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 15% | 8% | 2% [lower-alpha 667] | – |
Quinnipiac University [655] | May 9–14, 2019 | 431 | ± 6.2% | 39% | – | 5% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 13% | 8% | 3% [lower-alpha 668] | 12% |
Biden announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Buttigieg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Muhlenberg College [656] | Apr 3–10, 2019 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 28% | – | 3% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 16% | 8% | 9% [lower-alpha 669] | 20% |
Emerson College [657] | Mar 26–28, 2019 | 359 | ± 5.1% | 39% | – | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 20% | 11% | 10% [lower-alpha 670] | – |
The Georgia Democratic primary was originally scheduled to take place on March 24, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, first to May 19, 2020, [658] and then further delayed to June 9, 2020. [659]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates Polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||
FiveThirtyEight [660] | Mar 14, 2020 | until Feb 13, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 67.3% | 30.1% | 2.6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Andrew Yang | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||
The Progress Campaign (D) | Mar 12–21, 2020 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 63% | – | – | – | 34% | – | – | – | 2.3% [lower-alpha 671] |
University of Georgia [661] | Mar 4–14, 2020 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 66% | – | – | – | 22% | – | – | 1% [lower-alpha 672] | 11% |
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Landmark [662] | Feb 12, 2020 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 32% | 14% | 5% | – | 14% | 4% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 673] | 26% |
Yang withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
SurveyUSA [663] | Nov 15–18, 2019 | 536 | ± 5.2% | 36% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 17% | 14% | – | 5% | 9% |
Climate Nexus [664] | Nov 4–10, 2019 | 457 | ± 3.6% | 31% | – | 4% | 4% | 14% | 14% | 2% | 11% [lower-alpha 674] | 19% |
Landmark [665] | Sep 18–21, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.1% | 41% | – | 5% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 2% | 6% [lower-alpha 675] | 15% |
Change Research [666] | Sep 7–11, 2019 | 755 | ± 3.6% | 33% | – | 7% | 7% | 17% | 22% | 3% | 10% [lower-alpha 676] | – |
SurveyMonkey [667] | Jul 2–16, 2019 | 402 | ± 6.4% | 31% | – | 5% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 4% | 11% [lower-alpha 677] | 9% |
The New York Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for June 23, 2020. [668]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||||
FiveThirtyEight [669] | Mar 18, 2020 | until Mar 18, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 51.7% | 28.9% | 21.4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Un- decided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||
Gabbard withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren withdraw from the race | ||||||||||||
Siena College Research Institute [670] | Feb 16–20, 2020 | 315 (RV) | – | 13% | 21% | 9% | – | 9% | 25% | 11% | 1% [lower-alpha 678] | 11% |
Iowa caucus is held | ||||||||||||
Civis Analytics/Data For Progress [671] | Jan 13–19, 2020 | 845 (LV) | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | 2% | 17% | 14% | 15% [lower-alpha 679] | – |
Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Siena College [672] | Nov 12–18, 2019 | 797 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 24% | – | 5% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 14% | 12% [lower-alpha 680] | 29% [lower-alpha 681] |
Siena College [673] | Oct 6–10, 2019 | 340 (RV) | ± 6.5% | 21% | – | 4% | 4% | 1% | 16% | 21% | 10% [lower-alpha 682] | 24% [lower-alpha 683] |
de Blasio withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Siena College [674] * | Sep 8–12, 2019 | 359 (RV) | ± 6.1% | 22% | – | 3% | 4% | 1% | 15% | 17% | 4% [lower-alpha 684] | 34% |
Gillibrand withdraws from the race |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Bill de Blasio | Kirsten Gillibrand | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College [675] | Jun 2–6, 2019 | 385 | – | 25% | 56% | 11% | 8% |
The New Jersey Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for July 7, 2020. [676]
Polling aggregation | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Undecided [lower-alpha 1] | ||||
FiveThirtyEight [677] | Mar 8, 2020 | until Feb 18, 2020 [lower-alpha 4] | 35.5% | 30.5% | 34.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Michael Bloomberg | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Beto O'Rourke | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warren withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Bloomberg withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Super Tuesday | |||||||||||||
Klobuchar withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls | |||||||||||||
Nevada caucuses | |||||||||||||
FDU [678] | Feb 12–16, 2020 | 357 (RV) | – | 16% | 23% | – | 10% | – | – | 25% | 8% | 7% [lower-alpha 685] | 11% |
New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Iowa caucuses | |||||||||||||
Emerson College [679] | Jan 16–19, 2020 | 388 | ± 4.9% | 28% | 9% | – | 6% | – | – | 25% | 15% | 16% [lower-alpha 686] | – |
Booker withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Harris withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
Bloomberg announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
Monmouth University [680] | Sep 12–16, 2019 | 713 | ± 3.7% | 26% | – | 9% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 18% | 20% | 7% [lower-alpha 687] | 8% |
Change Research [681] | Aug 16–20, 2019 | 1176 | ± 2.9% | 26% | – | 5% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 21% | 23% | 3% [lower-alpha 688] | – |
The Connecticut Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020, [18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, first to June 2, 2020, [682] and then further delayed to August 11, 2020. [683]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 7] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Bernie Sanders | Pete Buttigieg | Elizabeth Warren | Other | Undecided | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sanders suspends his campaign | ||||||||||||
GreatBlue Research/Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant [684] | Mar 24–Apr 3, 2020 | – (RV) [lower-alpha 689] | – | 52.0% | 32.5% | – | – | 1.4% [lower-alpha 690] | 14.1% | |||
GreatBlue Research/Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant [685] | Feb 24–Mar 12, 2020 | 383 (RV) | – | 42.1% | 24.5% | – | – | 19.5% [lower-alpha 691] | 13.8% | |||
Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||
GreatBlue Research/Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant [686] | Dec 16, 2019–Jan 2, 2020 | 348 (RV) | – | 33.0% | 19.3% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 3.4% [lower-alpha 692] | 15.2% |
Partisan clients
Additional candidates
The 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary took place on February 11, 2020, as the second nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the Iowa caucuses the week before. The New Hampshire primary was a semi-closed primary, meaning that only Democrats and independents were allowed to vote in this primary. New Hampshire sent 33 delegates to the national convention, of which 24 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary, and the other 9 were unpledged delegates preselected independently of the primary results.
The 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses, the first nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, took place on February 3, 2020. Pete Buttigieg received the most state delegate equivalents (SDEs) and therefore the most delegates, with one SDE and two delegates more than Bernie Sanders, who had narrowly won the popular vote with 26.5%. It was the first time that the Iowa caucuses published the popular vote results of their contest. Buttigieg became the first openly gay person to ever earn the most delegates in a state's presidential contest in the United States. The Iowa caucuses were closed caucuses, wherein only registered members of a party were eligible to vote, and awarded 49 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 41 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the caucuses.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls were declared candidates or had received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
The 2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses took place on February 22, 2020, with early voting on February 14–18, and was the third nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the New Hampshire primary the week before. The Nevada caucuses were a closed caucus, meaning that only registered Democrats could vote in this caucus. The state awarded 49 delegates towards the national convention, of which 36 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the caucuses.
The 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 29, 2020, and was the fourth nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The South Carolina primary was an open primary and awarded 64 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 54 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Former vice president Joe Biden and senator Bernie Sanders were the only candidates to earn delegates. Biden won 48.7% of the popular vote and notably placed first in every county in the state; it was his first ever win in a presidential primary. Sanders came in second place and won 19.8% of the popular vote. Businessman Tom Steyer, who had staked his entire campaign on the state, placed third but did not surpass the threshold and dropped out of the race, endorsing Biden.
The 2020 California Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The California primary formed an unusual part of Super Tuesday as it had historically departed from its typical June date. It was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 494 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 415 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The open primary allocated 52 pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within each congressional district. The state was also given an additional 8 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.
The 2020 Colorado Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Colorado primary, the first in the state since 2000, was a semi-closed primary and awarded 79 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 67 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Massachusetts primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The North Carolina primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 122 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 110 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Texas primary was an open primary, with the state awarding the second-largest amount of national convention delegates on Super Tuesday and third-largest amount overall: 260 delegates, of which 228 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the primary.
The 2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Virginia primary was an open primary, wherein any registered voter can vote, regardless of party registration. The state awarded 124 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 99 were pledged delegates allocated at the local level.
The 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary took place on March 10, 2020, as one of several states voting the week after Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Michigan primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 147 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 125 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary took place on March 10, 2020, as one of several states voting the week after Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Mississippi primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 41 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 36 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary took place through April 28, 2020, as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. In-person voting, originally scheduled for March 17, 2020, had been cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Ohio primary was a semi-open primary and awarded 154 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 136 were pledged delegates allocated based on the results of the primary.
The 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The Florida primary was a closed primary, with the state awarding the fourth-largest amount of delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention and the third-largest amount up to that point: 249 delegates, of which 219 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Illinois Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The Illinois primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 182 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 155 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
The 2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary took place on April 7, 2020, in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, along with the Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice election, as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Wisconsin primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 97 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 84 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Although all forms of voting had to take place on or until April 7, full results were not allowed to be released before April 13, in accordance with a district court ruling.
The 2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary took place on June 2, 2020, after being postponed due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, as one of eight delayed and regular primaries on the same day in the Democratic primaries for the 2020 presidential election. It was originally planned to take place on April 28, 2020, as one of several northeastern states in the "Acela primary". The Pennsylvania primary was a closed primary, with the state awarding 210 delegates, of whom 186 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the primary results.
The 2020 Georgia Democratic presidential primary was held on June 9, 2020, alongside the West Virginia primary, as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. It was originally scheduled for March 24, 2020, but was moved to June 9 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and previously cast early mail-in votes were disallowed and separately counted. The election coincided with primaries for Georgia's Class 2 Senate seat and Georgia's U.S. House of Representatives seats. The Georgia primary was an open primary, which awarded 118 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of whom 105 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the primary results.