Siena College Research Institute

Last updated

Siena College Research Institute
Formation1980
FounderDoug Lonnstrom
Location
Director
Donald P. Levy
Affiliations Siena College
Website scri.siena.edu
RemarksConducts expert and public opinion polls, focusing on New York State and the United States, on issues of public policy interest

Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) is an affiliate of Siena College, located originally in Friars Hall and now in Hines Hall on the college's campus, in Loudonville, New York, in suburban Albany. [1] [2] [3] It was founded in 1980. [4] Statistics and finance professor Doug Lonnstrom was its founding director. [5] Donald P. Levy is its current director. [6] [7]

Contents

It conducts both expert and public opinion polls, focusing on New York State and the United States, on issues of public policy interest. They include education, health care, and consumer confidence, and explores business, economic, political, voter, social, educational, and historical issues. [4] [8] SCRI conducted surveys on New Yorkers' sentiments towards the creation of the Cordoba House Mosque near the World Trade Center site in lower Manhattan, and the Arizona Immigration Law. [9] [10]

Among other things, starting in 1982 SCRI has polled presidential scholars in an effort to rate the United States presidents, [11] [12] as well as the First Ladies. [1] [13] [14] [15] It has also conducted polls as to America's most notable women, [16] television's most memorable moment, [17] and consumer confidence. [18] [19]

The New York Times/Siena College

In July 2013, SCRI and The New York Times began a polling partnership, with its first collaborative poll conducted for the 2013 New York City mayoral election. [20]

In 2018, The New York Times/Siena College partnership delivered the first real time Midterm Election polls. [21] [22] In its review of polling conducted during the 2022 midterm elections, FiveThirtyEight found that The New York Times/Siena College partnered polls had the lowest statistical error of all pollsters it measured, tied with Suffolk University. [23] It currently holds a 3-star rating from FiveThirtyEight, their highest possible rating for a pollster, based on measurements of error, bias, and transparency in methodology. As of 2024, FiveThirtyEight describes The New York Times/Siena College Poll as the most accurate pollster in America. [24] [25]

The New York Times/Siena College Poll contacts a random sample of respondents, with sampling frames drawn from a national voter file of registered voters from data company L2 and supplemented with voter file-matched cellular numbers from market research company Marketing Systems Group. It utilizes live interviewers calling both landlines and cellphones in a dual frame model. For recent polls conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, over 90% of contacts are reached through cell phones and calls are aimed to last under 15 minutes. The poll aims to reach a representative sample of American voters and adjusts for participation bias via stratified sampling, utilizing demographic information from its voter file such as race, party affiliation, and regional location. The poll attempts more contacts with respondents from groups that are less likely to respond. As of 2024, overall response rates to The New York Times/Siena College Poll calls are usually under 2%. A 2022 incentivized poll conducted by The New York Times as an experiment in partnership with Ipsos achieved a 30% response rate while finding similar results to the lower response rate Siena College partnered polls. [26] [27] [28] [29] The New York Times/Siena College Poll has also variously used a turnout model to prioritize calls to a "likely electorate", which is gauged based on trends detected in The New York Times/Siena polls, past election results, and demographic data. This model was utilized for sampling in the 2018 midterm election but not the 2016 presidential election. [28] [30]

Completed surveys are weighted for probability of selection by stratum. Demographic weights of likely voters are weighted primarily with modeled turnout estimates from the poll's overall voter file, with adjustments made based on 12 demographic variables. Weighting of registered voter results, instead of likely voters, is conducted directly through characteristics derived from the voter file, without using the turnout model. Demographic information on education is not available in the voter file, and is weighted separately with the American Community Survey and Current Population Survey from the United States Census Bureau. Poll questions are published verbatim in the reports of each poll. [27] [31] [28] [30]

When nearing election days, the poll emphasizes results among likely voters over registered voters overall, which is determined through a respondent's voting history and self-reported intention to vote. [27]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 The Presidents' Wives: Reassessing the Office of First Lady . Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2000. p.  148. ISBN   9781555879488 . Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  2. ↑ Research centers directory. Gale Research Co. 1993. ISBN   9780810380011. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  3. ↑ "Siena College Research Institute – the preeminent academically situated polling institute in New York State". Archived from the original on August 22, 2010. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  4. 1 2 "About Us". Siena.edu. Archived from the original on May 28, 2010. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  5. ↑ Kelly, Thomas O.; Lonnstrom, Douglas A. (2003). "The Contemporary Presidency: Rating The Presidents A Tracking Study". Presidential Studies Quarterly. 33 (3): 625. doi:10.1111/1741-5705.00009. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  6. ↑ "Staff". Siena.edu. Archived from the original on July 5, 2010. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Staff". Siena College Research Institure. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  8. ↑ Bryce, Jill (October 1, 1998). "Siena poll: Most like president's leadership But they do not want their children to be like him". Daily Gazette, The. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  9. ↑ Siena Research Institute Press Release Archived 2010-08-15 at the Wayback Machine , August 5, 2010, siena.edu/sri. Retrieved August 17, 2010.
  10. ↑ The Snow Report Archived 2011-07-16 at the Wayback Machine Floridatoday.com. August 7, 2010. Retrieved August 17,2010.
  11. ↑ Curry, Jill L.; Morris, Irwin L. (2010). "The Contemporary Presidency Explaining Presidential Greatness: The Roles of Peace and Prosperity?". Presidential Studies Quarterly. 40 (3): 515–530. doi:10.1111/j.1741-5705.2010.03784.x.
  12. ↑ "FDR Tops President List". Star-News. August 21, 2002. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved September 28, 2010.
  13. ↑ Lincoln herald. Lincoln Memorial University Press. 2007. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  14. ↑ The presidential companion: readings on the first ladies. University of South Carolina Press. 2006. ISBN   9781570036590. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  15. ↑ Watson, Robert P. (September 15, 1999). "Ranking the presidential spouses". The Social Science Journal. 36 (1): 117–136. doi:10.1016/S0362-3319(99)80008-1. Archived from the original on July 3, 2018. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Survey Names Notable American Women". The Christian Science Monitor. March 22, 1993. Archived from the original on November 3, 2012. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  17. ↑ "JFK Assassination TV's Most Memorable Moment". The Tuscaloosa News. October 9, 1990. Archived from the original on March 20, 2022. Retrieved September 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Consumer confidence rises in N.Y., falls nationwide". Business First of Buffalo. April 1, 2003. Archived from the original on June 19, 2003. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  19. ↑ "New Yorkers a bit more confident in December". The Business Review (Albany). January 6, 2010. Archived from the original on October 25, 2012. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
  20. ↑ "SRI, New York Times to Collaborate". Siena College. July 8, 2013.
  21. ↑ "Live From the Battleground Districts: Polls of the Key Races for House Control". The New York Times. Archived from the original on September 6, 2018. Retrieved September 6, 2018.
  22. ↑ "Siena Partners with The New York Times". Siena College. Archived from the original on October 11, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
  23. ↑ "The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022". FiveThirtyEight. March 10, 2023.
  24. ↑ "538's Pollster Ratings". FiveThirtyEight. March 9, 2023. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  25. ↑ "What are the best pollsters in America?". FiveThirtyEight. January 25, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Are the Polls Still Missing 'Hidden' Republicans? Here's What We're Doing to Find Out". The New York Times. November 8, 2022.
  27. 1 2 3 "You Ask, We Answer: How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted". The New York Times. September 8, 2024.
  28. 1 2 3 "Our Polling Methodology". The New York Times. September 6, 2018.
  29. ↑ "Cross-Tabs". The New York Times. September 28, 2024.
  30. 1 2 "Why Did We Do the Poll the Way We Did?". The New York Times. September 6, 2018.
  31. ↑ "Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024". Pew Research. August 28, 2024.
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