2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

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2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Minnesota.svg
  2016 March 3, 2020 2024  
  MA
NC  

91 Democratic National Convention delegates (75 pledged with 49 on district-level and 26 statewide; 16 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
Home state Delaware Vermont Massachusetts
Delegate count382710
Popular vote287,553222,431114,674
Percentage38.6%29.9%15.4%

  Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Amy Klobuchar by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Michael Bloomberg Amy Klobuchar
(withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]
Home state New York Minnesota
Delegate count00
Popular vote61,88241,530
Percentage8.3%5.6%

2020 Minnesota Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Minnesota Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
2020MNDFLprimary.svg
County results

Results by first place popular vote winner

  Joe Biden
  Amy Klobuchar
  Bernie Sanders
Pledged national
convention
delegates
TypeDel.
CD1 5
CD2 6
CD3 7
CD4 8
CD5 10
CD6 4
CD7 4
CD8 5
PLEO10
At-large16
Total pledged delegates75

The 2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Minnesota primary, only the fifth in the state's history and the first since 1992, was an open primary, with the state awarding 91 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 75 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Early voting was possible for just over six weeks beginning January 17, 2020.

Contents

Former vice president Joe Biden had played virtually no role in the polls heading into the primary but benefitted from the withdrawal and endorsement of senator Amy Klobuchar on the previous day, the original front-runner in her home state, and won with almost 39% of the vote, gathering 38 delegates and winning in 76 counties. Senator Bernie Sanders lost many counties he had won in 2016, when he won the state easily by double digit margins against Hillary Clinton, and placed second with around 30% and 27 delegates, his only strongholds having been in college towns, St. Cloud and the Minneapolis and St. Paul city limits. [1] While senator Elizabeth Warren narrowly surpassed the 15% threshold and won 10 delegates, former mayor Michael Bloomberg and Klobuchar, who despite her withdrawal had carried a number of counties due to early voting, placed fourth and fifth without winning delegates.

Procedure

Minnesota was one of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday". [2] While Party-run caucuses were still held in the state, they no longer included or influenced the presidential nomination question. Then-governor Mark Dayton had signed a bill on May 22, 2016, matching a national trend for the change from a traditional caucus system to presidential nominating contests, [3] marking the first binding Democratic primary in the state since 1956 (as the primary ordered by state law in 1992 had been ignored by the party and was therefore non-binding).

Absentee voting began on January 17, 2020. [4] A legal challenge was brought jointly by James Martin and a Republican candidate threatening to disrupt the process, [5] but was denied by the Minnesota Supreme Court. [6] Voting on Super Tuesday took place from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with voting in certain townships starting at 10:00 a.m. Under Minnesota's open primary law, there were no qualifications that a candidate had to meet in order for that candidate's name to be printed on a primary ballot excepting only being included in the notice provided by the party's chair to the Minnesota Secretary of State; there were no restrictions as to what names the chair was allowed to give in its notice. [7] Under state party rules, however, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. [8]

The 75 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 75 pledged delegates, between 4 and 10 were allocated to each of the state's 8 congressional districts and another 10 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 16 at-large delegates. [9] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general. [10]

Following so-called "organizing unit conventions" between March 7, 2020 and April 19, 2020 during which delegates for the congressional district and state conventions were nominated, the congressional district conventions took place between May 2, 2020 and May 29, 2020 to select national convention district delegates. The state convention to vote on the 16 at-large and 10 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention was planned to be held virtually on May 31, 2020, but the speaking portion of it (not the online elections) were postponed to a later date due to the protests following the murder of George Floyd. [11] The delegation also included 16 unpledged PLEO delegates: 7 members of the Democratic National Committee, 7 members of Congress (both senators, notably Amy Klobuchar, and 5 representatives), the governor Tim Walz, and former vice president Walter Mondale. [9]

Candidates

15 candidates and an uncommitted option were on the ballot in Minnesota: [12]

Running

Withdrawn

Campaign

Sanders at a rally in Saint Paul, Minnesota on March 2, 2020 Bernie Sanders at a rally in St Paul, Minnesota (49614086632).jpg
Sanders at a rally in Saint Paul, Minnesota on March 2, 2020

With the impeachment trial coming up and taking up the time of several of the top tier candidates, including Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, the start of early voting was extremely important to her and the state party. Several rallies featuring her and other top DFL officials were held on that day, January 17. [13]

Amy Klobuchar suspended her campaign one day before Super Tuesday, after 100,000 voters had already requested early voting ballots. This is likely to have contributed to her receiving 5.6 percent of the vote, and coming in first in several counties. [14]

Polling

Amy Klobuchar led in pre-election polling, but withdrew from the race the night before the election and endorsed Joe Biden (who went on to win Minnesota).

Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate
updated
Dates
polled
Amy
Klobuchar
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Tulsi
Gabbard
Un-
decided [lower-alpha 5]
270 to Win Mar 2, 2020Feb 20–22, 202028.0%22.0%13.5%8.5%6.0%2.5%19.5%
FiveThirtyEight Mar 2, 2020until Mar 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 24.4%26.2%14.4%10.7%5.6%1.5%17.2%
Average26.2%24.1%14.0%9.6%5.8%2.0%18.3%
Minnesota Primary results (March 3, 2020)5.6%29.9%15.4%38.6%8.3%0.3%1.8%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
OtherUndecided
Mar 2, 2020Klobuchar withdraws from the race
Swayable Archived 2020-03-03 at the Wayback Machine Mar 1–2, 20201,472 (LV)± 4.0%20%14%4%21%27%8%6% [lower-alpha 8]
Data for Progress Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020650 (LV)± 3.84%27%16%2%32%21%1% [lower-alpha 9]
Mar 1, 2020Buttigieg withdraws from the race
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune/
MPR News Minnesota
Feb 17–20, 2020500(LV)± 4.5%8%3%3%29%23%11%2% [lower-alpha 10] 21%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Feb 12–19, 2020450(LV)± 6.4%9%9%10%27%21%16%4% [lower-alpha 11] 4%
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 1, 2019O'Rourke withdraws from the race
St. Cloud State University Oct 14-Nov 1, 2019177 (LV)15%2%15%12%15%
Kaiser Family Foundation Sep 23–Oct 15, 201924914%7%1%15%1%13%25%5% [lower-alpha 12] 21%
Change Research Jun 8–12, 2019772± 3.7%20%11%4%16%3%19%21%5% [lower-alpha 13]

Results

Minnesota Democratic presidential primary election results by county (vote share), 2020.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Klobuchar—<30%
  Klobuchar—30–40%
  Klobuchar—40–50%
2020MNDprimaryCDPV.svg
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary [15]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [16]
Joe Biden 287,55338.6438
Bernie Sanders 222,43129.8927
Elizabeth Warren 114,67415.4110
Michael Bloomberg 61,8828.32
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 41,5305.58
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 7,6161.02
Tulsi Gabbard 2,5040.34
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 1,7490.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 5510.07
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 3150.04
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)2260.03
Cory Booker (withdrawn)1970.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 4] 1720.02
Julian Castro (withdrawn)1140.02
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 14] 720.01
Uncommitted2,6120.35
Total744,198100%75

Results by county

2020 Minnesota Democratic primary

(results per county) [17] [lower-alpha 15]

CountyJoe BidenBernie SandersElizabeth WarrenMichael BloombergAmy KlobucharPete ButtigiegTulsi GabbardAndrew YangTom SteyerMichael BennetMarianne WilliamsonCory BookerJohn DelaneyJulian CastroDeval PatrickUncommittedTotal votes cast
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Aitkin 51032.8426016.74845.4122814.6839525.43362.3240.2610.0680.520010.060020.130010.06231.481,553
Anoka 15,17642.2011,28031.374,15611.563,3039.181,4253.962210.611330.371050.29190.05150.0490.0310.0040.0130.0110.001110.3135,962
Becker 1,12050.6144019.881888.501878.452119.53261.17110.5050.2340.1800000020.0910.0500180.812,213
Beltrami 1,45032.781,72038.894079.203628.183578.07581.31230.5260.1450.1150.1110.020020.0510.0200260.594,423
Benton 98240.3181733.5424410.022219.071204.93150.62110.4540.1610.0430.120020.0820.0810.0410.04120.492,436
Big Stone 12326.005611.84296.135812.2617537.00173.5930.6310.2130.6300000000000081.69473
Blue Earth 2,41732.612,76637.3282511.135537.466328.531191.61310.42220.3070.0940.0520.0330.0410.0130.0410.01260.357,412
Brown 65039.9033620.631489.0921813.3821513.20321.9660.370040.250010.0610.060010.0600171.041,629
Carlton 2,05645.171,13424.913297.2351511.313898.55561.23190.4280.1860.1330.0720.0430.0720.040010.02290.644,552
Carver 5,16548.142,41722.531,38612.921,0449.735144.791201.12340.32140.1390.080030.0300000000230.2110,729
Cass 90335.7661524.361656.5337114.6934213.54763.01100.4090.3660.2430.1240.160010.0420.0800180.712,525
Chippewa 31938.5714918.02576.898610.4017921.64182.1850.600010.12000010.1220.2410.120091.09827
Chisago 2,03048.5497323.2743610.4347411.331824.35320.77190.4570.1720.0520.0530.070030.070000190.454,182
Clay 2,28139.271,76830.4476113.103606.204998.59591.02220.3870.1240.0710.0220.0320.0320.030020.03380.655,808
Clearwater 25551.0012925.80224.40336.60459.0040.8010.2020.4010.2000000000000081.60500
Cook 33321.4337624.2027117.441268.1133921.81785.02110.710030.190010.0610.0620.1310.0600120.771,554
Cottonwood 27551.0210719.85529.657313.54213.9040.7410.1910.190000000000000050.93539
Crow Wing 2,32545.491,13922.294388.5757611.274769.31891.74170.3390.1830.0640.0830.060010.0210.0200300.595,111
Dakota 24,75943.8415,47927.417,45713.205,1159.062,6224.645190.921820.321060.19240.04130.02170.03140.0270.01120.0220.001470.2656,475
Dodge 68552.5330123.081289.821098.36594.5270.5450.3830.2320.15000010.0800000040.311,304
Douglas 1,44552.9346817.142458.9734012.451756.41220.81120.4430.1120.0730.1140.15000010.0400100.372,730
Faribault 39847.7214817.75607.1912915.47748.8791.0820.2410.1220.240010.1210.1210.1220.240060.72834
Fillmore 78645.6734419.991629.411669.6519411.27301.7440.23120.7090.5220.120010.0610.060000100.581,721
Freeborn 1,31549.7965624.841435.412559.662057.76281.0670.2760.2340.1540.150010.0410.040000160.612,641
Goodhue 2,17847.9496021.1349210.8350911.202896.36491.08280.6280.1860.1310.020010.0210.0210.0200200.444,543
Grant 11518.958013.18284.618914.6623638.88294.7860.9950.82000010.1610.16000000172.80607
Hennepin 92,10734.5288,56033.1951,33919.2419,0727.1510,9914.122,5040.947340.285320.201270.05840.03660.02670.03490.02310.01190.015150.19266,797
Houston 96449.1650625.801969.991899.64743.7760.3180.410010.0510.05000010.050000150.761,961
Hubbard 78843.2042123.081498.1720911.4619610.75281.5450.2730.1680.4410.05000020.110000140.771,824
Isanti 1,21749.2759524.091957.8929211.821245.02120.49150.6160.2410.0410.040010.04000000110.452,470
Itasca 1,98838.331,00119.303406.5566712.8687916.951563.01270.52150.29130.2540.0830.0650.1010.0220.0430.06831.605,187
Jackson 28245.7110717.34365.837411.999515.4071.1330.4910.1620.3230.49000000000071.13617
Kanabec 51351.6122822.94828.2510610.66404.02101.0130.3020.20000010.1010.1010.1010.100060.60994
Kandiyohi 1,49649.6858919.562367.8437112.322387.90311.0380.27120.4030.1030.1030.1030.1010.0310.0300160.533,011
Kittson 15831.10509.84285.51397.6819838.98132.5630.59000030.59000010.2010.2000142.76508
Koochiching 53542.8021216.96675.3620116.0818514.80262.0840.320040.3210.0810.08000010.0800131.041,250
Lac Qui Parle 22135.027511.89294.607111.2520131.85172.6910.160010.1610.1610.16000010.1600121.90631
Lake 81244.1845924.9718410.0121111.481226.64211.1430.1640.2270.3810.05000010.050000130.711,838
Lake of the Woods 9928.534212.1092.593610.3711533.14288.0730.8610.2920.580020.5810.2900000092.59347
Le Sueur 73537.5034517.601427.2425513.0140220.51351.79130.6640.2010.0520.1020.100010.0510.0500221.121,960
Lincoln 20965.314714.69154.69247.50175.3110.3130.9420.6310.3100000000000010.31320
Lyon 61639.0438824.591509.5116210.2719912.61281.7770.4450.3230.1910.0610.060010.060000171.081,578
Mahnomen 86446.1548225.751568.3323712.66955.07130.6990.4880.4310.05000010.0510.05000050.271,872
Marshall 10523.6512427.93112.485311.9412528.1581.8030.680020.4520.450000000010.23102.25444
Martin 16627.397412.21243.966911.3920633.99406.6030.5040.6630.5010.170010.17000000152.48606
McLeod 45050.0017719.679510.5610411.56505.5670.7820.2220.2210.1110.110010.11000000101.11900
Meeker 53642.0122117.32907.0516412.8521116.54312.4340.3150.390020.1610.0820.1600000090.711,276
Mille Lacs 65344.0641327.871107.4219613.23916.14130.8830.200010.0700000000000020.131,482
Morrison 70643.1831819.451096.6720412.4822113.52261.59110.6760.3730.1810.0640.240010.060010.06241.471,635
Mower 1,49945.0078123.452006.0037011.113179.52752.25150.45280.84130.3940.1220.060020.0620.0600230.693,331
Murray 27044.638914.71315.12589.5911519.01213.4720.330020.330010.170020.330000142.31605
Nicollet 1,55435.861,33130.7263814.723878.933227.43551.27110.2590.2160.1410.0210.0210.0210.0210.0200150.354,333
Nobles 34437.1925327.35515.5110711.5711712.65232.4960.650020.220030.3210.1120.220000161.73925
Norman 18330.2010216.83426.93599.7417128.22304.9520.3330.5030.5000000010.170000101.65606
Olmsted 8,52442.765,46227.402,74813.781,3826.931,3316.682361.18730.37530.27120.0670.0440.0250.0350.0330.0230.02870.4419,935
Otter Tail 2,16652.0380019.224049.703889.322846.82330.79310.74150.3630.0710.020030.0730.0710.0200310.744,163
Pennington 36447.2119325.03476.10476.108911.54121.5640.5270.9110.1300000000000070.91771
Pine 91543.1447422.351758.2528213.302009.43331.56100.4720.0920.0920.0910.05000010.0500241.132,121
Pipestone 20742.778216.94265.375511.368517.56112.2751.0310.2140.8310.21000000000071.45484
Polk 79638.4440019.311446.951718.2642220.38643.09110.53100.4870.3420.1030.1420.100010.0520.10361.742,071
Pope 43049.0913014.84475.3710912.4413715.6480.9150.5710.1120.2310.110000000010.1150.57876
Ramsey 34,70633.1334,49832.9321,97120.976,9286.614,6314.429050.863030.293660.35550.05410.04290.03330.03310.03120.01130.012390.23104,761
Red Lake 7025.643512.82165.86155.4911341.39124.4020.730000000000000000103.66273
Redwood 34450.8916324.11558.14558.14365.3350.7450.7450.7420.3010.1510.150010.15000030.44676
Renville 37049.6015620.91526.9710413.94516.8440.5430.4010.130030.4000000010.130010.13746
Rice 3,21237.022,85332.881,48417.105716.583954.55730.84360.41110.1340.0550.0630.0320.0230.0310.0110.01220.258,676
Rock 22338.6510217.68406.93427.2813423.22223.8161.040030.52000010.170010.170030.52577
Roseau 27037.7110514.66476.568011.1714219.83233.21111.5460.840010.1410.1400000000304.19716
Saint Louis 14,11542.3810,05430.183,68211.053,2289.691,5284.592330.701370.41630.19350.11160.05100.0360.0240.0150.0270.021850.5633,308
Scott 5,82045.053,54427.431,49311.561,2049.325904.571210.94590.46250.1990.0720.0220.0210.0140.0310.0110.01440.3412,920
Sherburne 2,79446.231,64027.135839.6562510.342804.63470.78280.4650.0840.0790.1520.030010.020030.05230.386,044
Sibley 32841.3113517.00597.4311914.9911514.48192.3960.7610.1320.2510.13000010.13000081.01794
Stearns 4,20438.603,35530.811,27111.679989.167737.101341.23440.40260.24120.1170.0650.0540.0430.0340.0410.01500.4610,891
Steele 1,14243.8967125.792579.8831011.911566.00210.81130.5060.2320.0830.120040.1530.1210.0400130.502,602
Stevens 22722.1037036.0315114.70696.7217116.65181.7550.4910.1050.4910.1020.1900000010.1060.581,027
Swift 29137.3111414.62476.0311214.3619224.6291.1520.2620.2600000010.13000000101.28780
Todd 60553.3023921.06928.1111610.22595.2030.2630.2610.09000010.0910.09000020.18131.151,135
Traverse 11039.713813.7282.893111.197828.16103.610010.360000000000000010.36277
Wabasha 84149.2435020.491468.5520712.121247.26191.1170.4140.2330.1810.0610.0610.0600000040.231,708
Wadena 33648.2817525.14517.33699.91466.6191.2930.4310.1420.29000000000010.1430.43696
Waseca 61651.5928223.621068.881159.63524.3650.4260.5010.0820.1730.2510.080000000050.421,194
Washington 16,24446.188,82725.094,24112.063,2979.371,8745.333551.011030.29980.28200.06170.0570.02100.0350.0160.0210.00710.2035,176
Watonwan 25132.4314118.22587.4911414.7317021.96202.5820.2620.2620.2630.390010.130010.130091.16774
Wilkin 13032.185513.61215.204511.1412731.44143.4720.500000000000000010.2592.23404
Winona 2,22138.771,91633.4477313.495239.131863.25340.59240.42130.2320.0310.0240.0720.030010.0210.02280.495,729
Wright 4,29449.122,05323.4988010.0793310.673954.52770.88360.41220.2570.0850.0620.0210.0120.0210.0100330.388,741
Yellow Medicine 26647.4211119.79325.70519.097713.7391.6010.1820.3630.5300000000000091.60561
Total287,55338.64222,43129.89114,67415.4161,8828.3241,5305.587,6161.022,5040.341,7490.245510.073150.042260.031970.031720.021140.02720.012,6120.35744,198

Exit polling

Gender

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders had a fairly even split among male voters (39 and 37 percent respectively), but Biden had a clear lead among female voters (41%). Elizabeth Warren performed notably better among women than men. [18]

Race

CNN's exit poll was 85% white and 15% non-white. Among white voters, 42% supported Biden, 27% supported Warren, and 17% supported Sanders. Black voters were split between Biden (47%) and Sanders (43%). [18]

Age

Young voters (17-29) overwhelmingly supported Sanders. Biden dominated the older age groups (45 and older), particularly those 65 and older. Warren and Sanders had more balanced support across the 30-44 age group. [18]

Education

Joe Biden's support was notable across all education levels, but it was particularly strong among voters who had never attended college, where he received 54% of the vote, and among voters with advanced degrees (44%). In contrast, Bernie Sanders resonated more with voters who had some college education or an associate's degree, securing 42% and 33% in these groups, respectively. Elizabeth Warren found significant support among voters with advanced degrees, capturing 23% of their votes. [18]

Ideology

Among among the 1,765 respondents, 24% were very liberal, 42% somewhat liberal, 29% moderate, and 5% conservative. Bernie Sanders was the dominant choice among very liberal voters, capturing 51% of their support. Joe Biden, conversely, was particularly strong with moderate voters, receiving 60% of their votes. Elizabeth Warren found her strongest support among very liberal voters (26%), but like Sanders, her appeal decreased among somewhat liberal and moderate voters (18% and 6%, respectively). [18]

Notes

  1. Klobuchar withdrew on March 2, 2020, the day before the primary. Absentee voting had already occurred.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. 1 2 Candidate withdrew during the first days of absentee voting.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  7. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. Steyer with 1%; Gabbard with 0%; "Other" with 5%
  9. Gabbard with 1%
  10. Gabbard and Steyer with 1%
  11. Gabbard with 4%; Steyer and "Another Candidate" with 0%
  12. Yang with 4%; Booker with 1%; Steyer, Castro, and Refused to answer with 0%; Someone else not reported
  13. Yang with 2%; Booker, Castro, and Inslee with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Williamson with 0%
  14. Candidate withdrew after in-person absentee voting started on January 17, 2020.
  15. The results are official because they were certified by the State Canvassing Board on March 10, 2020 [15] before being retrieved on April 2, 2020.

See also

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