2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout63.89%
  Amy Klobuchar 2019 (cropped).jpg JimNewberger (cropped).jpg
Nominee Amy Klobuchar Jim Newberger
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote1,566,174940,437
Percentage60.31%36.21%

2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by county.svg
2018 MN US Senate CD results.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by precinct.svg
Klobuchar:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Newberger:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     No vote:     

U.S. senator before election

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Republican state House of Representatives member Jim Newberger. This election was held alongside a special election for Minnesota's other Senate seat, which was held by Al Franken until he resigned in January 2018. U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections were also held.

Contents

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018. [1] This is the last time that a Democratic candidate won a majority of Minnesota's counties in a statewide election.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Steve Carlson [3]
  • Stephen A. Emery [3]
  • David R. Groves [3]
  • Leonard J. Richards [3]

Endorsements

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 557,306 95.70%
Democratic (DFL) Steve Carlson9,9341.71%
Democratic (DFL) Stephen Emery7,0471.21%
Democratic (DFL) David Groves4,5110.77%
Democratic (DFL) Leonard Richards3,5520.61%
Total votes582,350 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Merrill Anderson, [3] past candidate for mayor of Minneapolis, past candidate for governor of Minnesota
  • Rae Hart Anderson [3]
  • Rocky De La Fuente, 2016 Reform Party presidential nominee and perennial candidate [3]

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Newberger

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

  • Chinese American Alliance Action [19]

Newspapers

Results

Results by county
Map legend
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Newberger--80-90%
Newberger--70-80%
Newberger--60-70%
Newberger--50-60% 2018 MN US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Newberger—80–90%
  •   Newberger—70–80%
  •   Newberger—60–70%
  •   Newberger—50–60%
Results by congressional district
Map legend
Newberger--70-80%
Newberger--60-70% 2018MNUSSENGOPprimary.svg
Results by congressional district
Map legend
  •   Newberger—70–80%
  •   Newberger—60–70%
Republican Party primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Newberger 201,531 69.50%
Republican Merrill Anderson45,49215.69%
Republican Rae Hart Anderson25,8838.93%
Republican Roque "Rocky" de la Fuente17,0515.88%
Total votes289,957 100%

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [23] Safe DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [24] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [26] Likely DJuly 9, 2018
CNN [27] Safe DJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [28] Safe DNovember 5, 2018

Debates

On August 24, MPR News hosted a debate between Amy Klobuchar and Jim Newberger at the Minnesota State Fair. [29]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)$10,139,499$7,700,359$5,086,325
Jim Newberger (R)$210,846$191,815$19,030
Source: Federal Election Commission [30]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Jim
Newberger (R)
Paula
Overby (G)
Dennis
Schuller (LMN)
OtherUndecided
Change Research [31] November 2–4, 201895355%40%2%3%
Research Co. [32] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%53%33%2%12%
SurveyUSA [33] October 29–31, 2018600± 5.3%57%34%1%7%
St. Cloud State University [34] October 15–30, 201842054%28%
Mason-Dixon [35] October 15–17, 2018800± 3.5%56%33%2%2%8%
Change Research [36] October 12–13, 20181,41350%41%2%5%2%
Marist College [37] September 30 – October 4, 2018637 LV± 4.9%60%32%4%<1%4%
63%33%<1%4%
860 RV± 4.2%59%32%5%<1%5%
62%33%<1%5%
Mason-Dixon [38] September 10–12, 2018800± 3.5%60%30%1%3%6%
SurveyUSA [39] September 6–8, 2018574± 4.9%53%38%2%8%
Suffolk University [40] August 17–20, 2018500± 4.4%54%34%1%1%11%
Emerson College [41] August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%50%26%24%
BK Strategies [42] June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%57%37%6%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
BK Strategies (R) [43] June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%49%42%9%

Results

Klobuchar won the election by a margin of 24.10%. She carried a clear majority of the state's 87 counties, won every congressional district, and had the biggest statewide margin of any statewide candidate in Minnesota in 2018. Klobuchar ran up huge margins in the state's population centers and trounced Newberger in the counties encompassing the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. As in her 2012 victory, she also won many rural counties. Klobuchar was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2019.

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 1,566,174 60.31% −4.92%
Republican Jim Newberger 940,43736.21%+5.68%
Legal Marijuana Now Dennis Schuller66,2362.55%N/A
Green Paula Overby23,1010.89%N/A
Write-in 9310.04%-0.05%
Total votes2,596,879 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota swing map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota trend map by county.svg

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all eight congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans. [45]

DistrictKlobucharNewbergerRepresentative
1st 54%42% Tim Walz (115th Congress)
Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress)
2nd 59%38% Jason Lewis (115th Congress)
Angie Craig (116th Congress)
3rd 63%35% Erik Paulsen (115th Congress)
Dean Phillips (116th Congress)
4th 71%25% Betty McCollum
5th 81%15% Keith Ellison (115th Congress)
Ilhan Omar (116th Congress)
6th 48.3%48.2% Tom Emmer
7th 48.4%48.3% Collin Peterson
8th 54%43% Rick Nolan (115th Congress)
Pete Stauber (116th Congress)

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupKlobucharNewbergerNo
answer
 % of
voters
Gender
Men5445146
Women6732154
Age
18–24 years old791926
25–29 years old603915
30–39 years old6335212
40–49 years old5742113
50–64 years old6138129
65 and older6039135
Race
White 5940189
Black 861225
Latino N/AN/AN/A3
Asian N/AN/AN/A2
OtherN/AN/AN/A2
Race by gender
White men5247140
White women6534149
Black menN/AN/AN/A3
Black womenN/AN/AN/A2
Latino menN/AN/AN/A1
Latino womenN/AN/AN/A1
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less5940117
Some college education5543223
Associate degree 5444217
Bachelor's degree 6634N/A26
Advanced degree7525N/A16
Education and race
White college graduates6831138
White no college degree5346151
Non-white college graduates792014
Non-white no college degree821717
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees7425121
White women without college degrees5940128
White men with college degrees6139N/A17
White men without college degrees4653123
Non-whites8018211
Income
Under $30,0006728514
$30,000–49,9996335220
$50,000–99,9995544136
$100,000–199,9996436N/A23
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats 982N/A39
Republicans 1881132
Independents 6236229
Party by gender
Democratic men964N/A14
Democratic women991N/A25
Republican men1684N/A15
Republican women2078217
Independent men5642216
Independent women6929213
Ideology
Liberals 963127
Moderates 7623139
Conservatives 1782133
Marital status
Married5544167
Unmarried6928333
Gender by marital status
Married men5147231
Married women5842N/A36
Unmarried men5938315
Unmarried women7919218
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5940113
No6435187
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 7820250
Immigration 2970122
Economy 3762118
Gun policy N/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban7326140
Suburban5841132
Rural4949228
Source: CNN [46]

See also

References

  1. "United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 - Ballotpedia" . Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  2. Sherry, Allison (December 25, 2016). "Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race". Star Tribune . Retrieved December 26, 2016.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  4. "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
  5. "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List . February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  6. Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Re-election". End Citizens United.
  7. "Amy Klobuchar – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  8. "Endorsements - League of Conservation Voters".
  9. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support" . Retrieved December 18, 2018.
  10. "NRDC Action Fund announces first wave of 2018 Senate endorsements". www.nrdcactionfund.org. January 5, 2018.
  11. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  12. "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  13. 1 2 "Minnesota 2018 Primary Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 12, 2019. Retrieved May 28, 2019.
  14. Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (August 5, 2017). "Challenger emerges to run against U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar — GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger". St. Paul Pioneer Press . Retrieved August 5, 2017.
  15. "GOP endorses Housley, Newberger for U.S. Senate". June 2, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  16. "Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota". Politico . January 16, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  17. [ dead link ]
  18. Lindell, Mike (October 31, 2018). "My friend @NewbergerJim will be one of the best US Senators ever!pic.twitter.com/gZCkRCQ1nw" . Retrieved December 18, 2018.
  19. "CAA Endorsing James Newberger For US Senate". Jim Newberger for US Senate.
  20. "Our View / Endorsement: Newberger already focused on Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune . July 24, 2018.
  21. McMullen, Maureen (November 11, 2017). "Transgender candidate announces U.S. Senate campaign in Minn., seeking Green Party endorsement". Duluth News Tribune . Retrieved January 25, 2018.
  22. Golden, Erin (June 16, 2018). "Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices". Star Tribune . Retrieved June 17, 2018.
  23. "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  24. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  25. "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
  26. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  27. "Key Races: Senate" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  28. "Battle for the Senate 2018" . Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  29. Pugmire, Tim (August 22, 2018). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar and state Rep. Jim Newberger debate at the State Fair" . Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  30. "Campaign finance data" . Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  31. Change Research
  32. Research Co.
  33. SurveyUSA
  34. St. Cloud State University
  35. Mason-Dixon
  36. Change Research
  37. Marist College
  38. Mason-Dixon
  39. SurveyUSA
  40. Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine
  41. Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine
  42. BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
  43. BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
  44. "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2018.
  45. "Home - Election Results".
  46. "Minnesota Senate election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.

Official campaign websites