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Turnout | 65.23% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lamont: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stefanowski: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This race's Democratic margin of victory was the closest to the national average of 3.1 points. (It was 0.1 point more Democratic.)
As Connecticut does not have gubernatorial term limits, incumbent Democratic governor Dannel Malloy was eligible to run for a third term, but declined to do so. [1] [2] [3] After the resignation of Kansas governor Sam Brownback in January 2018, Malloy became the most unpopular governor in the United States. [4] [5] The general election was between 2006 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Ned Lamont, and Republican financial executive Bob Stefanowski. Independent candidate and former Republican Oz Griebel has been called a spoiler candidate for Stefanowski, earning 3.89% of the vote. [6]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ned Lamont | 172,024 | 81.2 | |
Democratic | Joe Ganim | 39,913 | 18.8 | |
Total votes | 211,937 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Susan Bysiewicz | 129,928 | 62.2 | |
Democratic | Eva Bermúdez Zimmerman | 79,021 | 37.8 | |
Total votes | 208,949 | 100.0 |
The Republican statewide nominating convention was held May 11–12, 2018 at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut.
Under the rules established by the convention, any candidate not receiving at least eight percent of the vote would be eliminated in the first round of voting. In the second round of voting, candidates not receiving 15 percent of the vote would be eliminated. In all subsequent rounds of voting, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated, regardless of percentage. Voting would continue until one candidate receives 50 percent plus one of all votes cast. [88]
Round | Mark Boughton | Tim Herbst | Steve Obsitnik | Peter Lumaj | Mark Lauretti | David M. Walker | Prasad Srinivasan | Mike Handler | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 277 | 24.4% | 213 | 18.8% | 117 | 10.3% | 167 | 14.7% | 119 | 10.5% | 104 | 9.2% | 90 | 7.9% | 46 | 4.1% |
2 | 408 | 36.3% | 319 | 28.4% | 198 | 17.6% | 161 | 14.3% | 26 | 2.3% | 13 | 1.2% | ||||
3 | 557 | 50.1% | 454 | 40.9% | 100 | 9.0% | ||||||||||
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Boughton | Tim Herbst | Steve Obsitnik | Bob Stefanowski | David Stemerman | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [125] | August 7–9, 2018 | 1,151 | ± 3.0% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 17% | 3% |
Tremont Public Advisors [126] | July 18–20, 2018 | 1,006 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 15% | 12% | 20% | 15% | 5% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) [127] | July 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 18% | 11% | 4% | 29% | 17% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Boughton | Mike Handler | Tim Herbst | Mark Lauretti | Peter Lumaj | Steve Obsitnik | Prasad Srinivasan | Bob Stefanowski | David Stemerman | Erin Stewart | Dave Walker | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Stefanowski) [128] | May 4–6, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 33% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 30% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bob Stefanowski | 42,119 | 29.4 | |
Republican | Mark D. Boughton | 30,505 | 21.3 | |
Republican | David Stemerman | 26,276 | 18.3 | |
Republican | Tim Herbst | 25,144 | 17.6 | |
Republican | Steve Obsitnik | 19,151 | 13.4 | |
Total votes | 143,195 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joe Markley | 65,702 | 47.6 | |
Republican | Erin Stewart | 45,262 | 32.8 | |
Republican | Jayme Stevenson | 27,139 | 19.7 | |
Total votes | 138,103 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of January 10, 2019 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ned Lamont (D) | $15,096,464 | $15,909,903 | $410 |
Bob Stefenowski (R) | $3,226,116 | $6,535,871 | $209 |
Oz Griebel (I) | $199,606 | $503,305 | $1,428 |
Source: Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission [175] |
Dates | Location | Lamont | Stefanowski | Griebel | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 18, 2018 | Hartford, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate [176] - C-SPAN |
October 30, 2018 | New Haven, Connecticut | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate [177] - C-SPAN |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [178] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post [179] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [180] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report [181] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [182] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [183] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos [184] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [185] [a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico [186] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing [187] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Bob Stefanowski (R) | Oz Griebel (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing [188] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 37% | 9% | – | 8% |
Sacred Heart University [189] | October 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 12% |
Emerson College [190] | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.7% | 46% | 39% | 10% | 0% [a] | 5% |
Quinnipiac University [191] | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,201 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
Sacred Heart University [192] | October 13–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | 40% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Change Course CT PAC) [193] | October 8–9, 2018 | 828 | – | 43% | 38% | – | – | 19% |
Quinnipiac University [194] | October 3–8, 2018 | 767 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 39% | 11% | 0% | 3% |
Sacred Heart University [195] | September 12–17, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 4% | 16% |
Gravis Marketing [196] | August 24–27, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | – | 12% |
Quinnipiac University [197] | August 16–21, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 2% [b] | 14% |
53% | 37% | – | – | 6% | ||||
Sacred Heart University [198] | August 16–21, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.3% | 41% | 37% | – | 6% | 17% |
with Ned Lamont and Mark Boughton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Mark Boughton (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 40% | 11% |
with Ned Lamont and Erin Stewart
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ned Lamont (D) | Erin Stewart (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
with Susan Bysiewicz and Erin Stewart
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Susan Bysiewicz (D) | Erin Stewart (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
with Susan Bysiewicz and Mark Boughton
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Susan Bysiewicz (D) | Mark Boughton (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
with generic Democrat and Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremont Public Advisors [199] | May 3–5, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ned Lamont | 676,649 | 48.10% | −0.36% | |
Working Families | Ned Lamont | 17,861 | 1.27% | −1.00% | |
Total | Ned Lamont | 694,510 | 49.37% | -1.36% | |
Republican | Bob Stefanowski | 624,750 | 44.41% | −1.71% | |
Independent Party | Bob Stefanowski | 25,388 | 1.80% | −0.24% | |
Total | Bob Stefanowski | 650,138 | 46.21% | −1.95% | |
Griebel-Frank for CT Party | Oz Griebel | 54,741 | 3.89% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Rod Hanscomb | 6,086 | 0.43% | N/A | |
Amigo Constitution Liberty | Mark Greenstein | 1,254 | 0.09% | N/A | |
Write-in | Lee Whitnum | 74 | 0.01% | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,406,803 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Lamont won four of eight counties, while Stefenowski won the other four.
County | Ned Lamont Democratic | Bob Stefenowski Republican | Other parties Independent | Total votes cast | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fairfield | 188,334 | 53.01% | 160,641 | 45.22% | 6,283 | 1.77% | 355,258 |
Hartford | 179,182 | 51.74% | 144,218 | 41.64% | 22,930 | 6.62% | 346,330 |
Litchfield | 32,125 | 37.61% | 49,280 | 57.69% | 4,015 | 4.70% | 85,420 |
Middlesex | 36,483 | 45.78% | 38,678 | 48.54% | 4,524 | 5.68% | 79,685 |
New Haven | 160,406 | 49.39% | 153,865 | 47.38% | 10,485 | 3.23% | 324,756 |
New London | 50,417 | 47.38% | 49,364 | 46.39% | 6,625 | 6.23% | 106,406 |
Tolland | 29,992 | 45.13% | 31,882 | 47.98% | 4,576 | 6.89% | 66,450 |
Windham | 17,571 | 41.42% | 22,210 | 52.35% | 2,643 | 6.23% | 42,424 |
Total | 694,510 | 49.37% | 650,138 | 46.22% | 62,081 | 4.41% | 1,406,729 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Lamont won three of five congressional districts, while Stefenowski won two, both of which were held by Democrats. [201]
District | Ned Lamont Democratic | Bob Stefenowski Republican | Other parties Independent | Total votes cast | Representative | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | |||
1st | 146,577 | 52.21% | 115,799 | 41.25% | 18,375 | 6.54% | 280,751 | John B. Larson |
2nd | 131,943 | 44.67% | 145,057 | 49.11% | 18,361 | 6.22% | 295,361 | Joe Courtney |
3rd | 142,570 | 51.64% | 124,877 | 45.23% | 8,634 | 3.13% | 276,081 | Rosa DeLauro |
4th | 149,528 | 53.50% | 125,583 | 44.93% | 4,395 | 1.57% | 279,506 | Jim Himes |
5th | 123,892 | 45.03% | 138,822 | 50.46% | 12,390 | 4.50% | 275,104 | Elizabeth Esty |
Totals | 694,510 | 49.37% | 650,138 | 46.22% | 62,155 | 4.41% | 1,406,803 |
Debates
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites