2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
Turnout64.85% Increase2.svg17.33pp [1]
  DougDucey (cropped).jpg David Garcia by Gage Skidmore 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,330,863994,341
Percentage56.00%41.84%

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018AZGovCD.svg
2018 AZ Gov Leg.svg
AZ Governor 2018 Precinct Results.svg
Ducey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Garcia:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:      40–50%     50%     No data

Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

The primary was held on August 28. [2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president. In addition, Ducey was the first person to receive 1 million votes in a gubernatorial election in the state.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Doug Ducey

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey
Ken
Bennett
Undecided
Emerson College [31] June 21–22, 2018305± 5.9%44%22%35%

Results

Results by county:
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Ducey
50-60%
60-70%
70-80% 2018 AZ GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Ducey
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 463,672 70.7
Republican Ken Bennett191,77529.3
Republican Robert Weber (write-in)910.0
Total votes655,538 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in) [6]
  • Steve Farley, state senator [35]
  • Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist [36]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Steve
Farley
Kelly
Fryer
David
Garcia
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights [53] August 14–15, 2018589± 4.0%25%7%40%28%
Data Orbital [54] June 25–27, 2018550± 4.2%11%6%33%49%
Emerson College [55] June 21–22, 2018260± 6.2%13%8%30%48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) [56] May 21–23, 2018400± 5.0%11%11%32%46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [57] January 5–7, 201844622%43%36%

Results

Results by county:
Garcia
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Farley
40-50% 2018 AZ GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Farley
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic David Garcia 255,555 50.6
Democratic Steve Farley163,07232.3
Democratic Kelly Fryer86,81017.2
Democratic Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in)440.0
Total votes505,481 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

  • Jeff Funicello, activist [58]
  • Barry Hess (write-in) [6]
  • Kevin McCormick, [6] candidate for president in 2016 [59] [60]

Endorsements

Kevin McCormick

Individuals

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Results by county:
Torres
90-100%
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
Torres/Dyer tie
50-60%
No votes 2018 AZ gubernatorial Green primary.svg
Results by county:
  Torres
  •   90-100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  Torres/Dyer tie
  •   50-60%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Angel Torres (write-in)357 76.3
Green Noah Dyer (write-in)11123.7
Total votes468 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

  • Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator [64] [65]
  • Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist [66]

Declined

General election

Debates

DatesLocationDuceyGarciaLink
September 24, 2018 Tempe, Arizona ParticipantParticipant Full debate [68] YouTube
September 25, 2018 Tucson, Arizona ParticipantParticipant Full debate [69] C-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [70] Likely ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [71] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [72] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [73] Likely RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [74] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [75] Likely RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [76] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [77] [a] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [78] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [79] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
David
Garcia (D)
Angel
Torres (G)
OtherUndecided
HarrisX [80] November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%53%39%
HarrisX [81] November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%55%37%
Emerson College [82] November 1–3, 2018758± 3.7%55%40%5%
HarrisX [83] November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%57%36%
Research Co. [84] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%54%39%2%5%
HarrisX [85] October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%56%37%
Gravis Marketing [86] October 24 – November 2, 20181,165± 2.9%53%40%7%
HarrisX [87] October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%57%36%
HarrisX [88] October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%54%37%
Vox Populi Polling [89] October 27–30, 2018677± 3.7%54%46%
HarrisX [90] October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%57%35%
Fox News [91] October 27–29, 2018643 LV± 3.5%55%37%2%5%
710 RV± 3.5%54%35%3%7%
CNN/SSRS [92] October 24–29, 2018702 LV± 4.4%52%45%0%1%
867 RV± 4.0%52%43%0%3%
HighGround Public Affairs [93] October 26–28, 2018400± 4.9%55%35%4%7%
Marist College [94] October 23–27, 2018506 LV± 5.4%54%40%5%<1%2%
55%42%1%1%
793 RV± 4.4%54%38%5%<1%3%
55%41%1%3%
YouGov [95] October 23–26, 2018972± 4.1%52%41%1%5%
Ipsos [96] October 17–26, 2018799± 4.0%57%37%2%3%
OH Predictive Insights [97] October 22–23, 2018600± 4.0%57%39%1%3%
Change Research (D-Garcia) [98] October 9–10, 201878347%40%11%
OH Predictive Insights [99] October 3, 2018600± 4.0%54%37%2%7%
Data Orbital [100] October 1–3, 2018550± 4.2%52%34%2%2%9%
Fox News [101] September 29 – October 2, 2018716 LV± 3.5%55%37%1%7%
806 RV± 3.5%54%35%2%9%
Vox Populi Polling [102] September 29 – October 1, 2018702± 3.5%57%43%
Suffolk University [103] September 27–30, 2018500± 4.4%50%38%2%0%10%
Latino Decisions [104] September 10–25, 2018463 LV45%40%15%
610 RV41%37%19%
Emerson College [105] September 19–21, 2018650± 4.4%42%38%6%14%
Marist College [106] September 16–20, 2018564 LV± 4.7%49%39%6%<1%6%
51%43%<1%5%
763 RV± 4.2%48%37%7%<1%7%
51%42%1%6%
CNN/SSRS [107] September 11–15, 2018761 LV± 4.3%49%46%0%2%
854 RV± 4.1%48%45%1%4%
Ipsos [108] September 5–14, 20181,016± 4.0%51%39%4%7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) [109] September 8–13, 2018800± 4.0%49%48%0%3%
Fox News [110] September 8–11, 2018710 LV± 3.5%51%40%1%8%
801 RV± 3.5%49%39%1%10%
Gravis Marketing [111] September 5–7, 2018882± 3.3%48%44%9%
Data Orbital [112] September 4–6, 2018550± 4.2%49%41%2% [113] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [114] August 30–31, 2018554± 4.2%44%43%13%
Gravis Marketing [115] June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%41%42%17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [57] January 5–7, 2018735± 4.0%42%43%15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [116] June 7–8, 20171,020± 3.1%42%44%14%
Hypothetical polling

with Steve Farley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Steve
Farley (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing [115] June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%42%39%19%
GQR Research (D-Farley) [117] February 23 – March 5, 2018500± 4.4%49%44%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [57] January 5–7, 2018735± 4.0%42%39%19%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) [116] June 7–8, 20171,020± 3.1%42%40%18%

with generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Morning Consult [118] June 29 – July 9, 20181,641± 2.0%34%41%25%

with Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [119] May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3%43%36%21%

Results

Swing by county

Legend
Democratic--+5-10%
Democratic--+<5%
Republican--+<5%
Republican--+5-10%
Republican--+10-15%
Republican--+15-20%
Republican--+20-25% 2018 Arizona Governor swing by county margins.svg
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018 [120]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 1,330,863 56.00% +2.56%
Democratic David Garcia 994,34141.84%+0.22%
Green Angel Torres50,9622.14%N/A
Write-in 2750.01%-0.10%
Total votes2,376,441 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By county

CountyDavid Garcia
Democratic
Doug Ducey
Republican
Angel Torres
Green
MarginTotal

votes

# %# %# %#%
Apache 14,95559.72%9,17536.64%9123.64%5,78023.08%25,042
Cochise 14,57632.10%29,63865.26%1,2012.64%-15,062-33.17%45,415
Coconino 30,71255.91%22,77841.47%1,4402.62%7,93414.44%54,930
Gila 5,62327.38%14,44470.34%4682.28%-8,821-42.96%20,535
Graham 2,56924.19%7,77673.21%2762.60%-5,207-49.03%10,621
Greenlee 83232.64%1,63764.22%803.14%-805-31.58%2,549
La Paz 1,12221.99%3,85275.49%1292.53%-2,730-53.50%5,103
Maricopa 603,05542.09%800,21055.85%29,4952.06%-197,155-13.76%1,432,760
Mohave 13,58018.97%56,68279.18%1,3251.85%-43,102-60.21%71,587
Navajo 13,64637.30%21,88059.81%1,0552.88%-8,234-22.51%36,581
Pima 195,22750.25%184,62147.52%8,6782.23%10,6062.73%388,526
Pinal 38,80133.21%75,27264.42%2,7672.37%-36,471-31.21%116,840
Santa Cruz 8,40762.46%4,79235.60%2611.94%3,61526.86%13,460
Yavapai 32,15929.68%74,14868.44%2,0291.87%-41,989-38.76%108,336
Yuma 19,07743.47%23,95854.60%8461.93%-4,881-11.12%%43,881
Total994,34141.8%1,330,86356.0%50,9622.1%336,52214.2%2,376,166

By congressional district

Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats. [121]

DistrictDavid Garcia
Democratic
Doug Ducey
Republican
Representative
1st 43%54% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 46%52% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 58%39% Raúl Grijalva
4th 25%73% Paul Gosar
5th 34%64% Andy Biggs
6th 38%60% David Schweikert
7th 67%30% Ruben Gallego
8th 33%65% Debbie Lesko
9th 52%45% Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupGarciaDuceyNo
answer
 % of
voters
Gender
Men4058247
Women4355253
Age
18–24 years oldN/AN/AN/A5
25–29 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
30–39 years old4552317
40–49 years old4355216
50–64 years old3761229
65 and older4059129
Race
White 3762175
Black N/AN/AN/A2
Latino 5644N/A19
Asian N/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A1
Race and gender
White men3464234
White women3960141
Black menN/AN/AN/A1
Black womenN/AN/AN/A1
Latino men534619
Latina women5842N/A10
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less3267125
Some college education4058228
Associate degree 3859310
Bachelor's degree 4651323
Advanced degree5940114
Education and race
White college graduates4849327
White no college degree3069138
Non-white college graduates514729
Non-white no college degree6138116
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5049115
White women without college degrees3366126
White men with college degrees4649512
White men without college degrees2872N/A21
Non-whites5840225
Military service
Veteran3365214
Non-veteran4554186
Income
Under $30,0003662215
$30,000-$49,9995445119
$50,000-$99,9994652233
$100,000-$199,9993167224
Over $200,0002872N/A9
Party ID
Democrats 8514131
Republicans 595N/A38
Independents 4552331
Party by gender
Democratic men7720314
Democratic women919N/A17
Republican men595N/A15
Republican women496N/A23
Independent men4256218
Independent women4847513
Ideology
Liberals 8316122
Moderates 5741238
Conservatives 495140
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5145415
No4158185
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 6433342
Immigration 891131
Economy 3860218
Gun policy N/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban5246243
Suburban3464251
RuralN/AN/AN/A5
Source: CNN [122]

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  113. Barry Hess (L) with 2%
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  116. 1 2 Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)
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Official campaign websites