2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

Last updated

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
Turnout55.65% Decrease2.svg4.82pp [1]
  Jan Brewer by Gage Skidmore 5.jpg Terry Goddard by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Jan Brewer Terry Goddard
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote938,934733,935
Percentage54.33%42.43%
2010 Arizona gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
AZ Governor 2010.svg
Brewer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Goddard:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Jan Brewer
Republican

Elected Governor

Jan Brewer
Republican

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

Contents

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day. [2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010. [5] [6]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredJan Brewer (inc.)Dean Martin*Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports [12] June 16, 201072%12%16%
Rasmussen Reports [13] May 17, 201045%18%18%
Public Policy Polling [14] April 23–25, 201025%15%11%
58%16%19%
Rasmussen Reports [15] April 13, 201026%12%18%
Rasmussen Reports [15] March 15, 201020%21%19%
Rasmussen Reports [16] January 20, 201029%27%—
Rasmussen Reports [17] November 18, 200910%22%—
Public Policy Polling [18] September 21, 200939%26%—
* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Brewer--80-90% Brewer--70-80% 2010 Arizona gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Brewer—80–90%
  Brewer—70–80%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jan Brewer (Incumbent)479,15381.53
Republican Buz Mills*51,0018.68
Republican Dean Martin*36,0126.13
Republican Matthew Jette19,6113.34
Republican Write-in1,9060.32
Total votes587,683 100
* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Barry Hess1,30343.38
Libertarian Bruce Olsen61220.37
Libertarian Ronald Cavanaugh54718.21
Libertarian Write-in2999.95
Libertarian Alvin Ray Yount2438.09
Total votes3,004 100

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [19] Likely ROctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [20] Lean ROctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [21] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Likely ROctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [23] Lean ROctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredTerry Goddard (D)Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports [24] October 28, 201039%53%
Public Policy Polling [25] October 23–24, 201044%52%
BRC Polls [26] October 11, 201035%38%
Rasmussen Reports [24] October 3, 201039%55%
Rasmussen Reports [27] September 7, 201038%60%
Rasmussen Reports [28] August 25, 201038%57%
Rasmussen Reports [29] July 21, 201037%56%
Rasmussen Reports [30] June 29, 201035%53%
Rasmussen Reports [31] May 17, 201039%52%
Rasmussen Reports [32] April 27, 201040%48%
Public Policy Polling [33] April 23–25, 201047%44%
Rasmussen Reports [32] April 14, 201040%44%
Rasmussen Reports [32] March 16, 201045%43%
Rasmussen Reports [32] January 20, 201043%42%
Rasmussen Reports [34] November 18, 200944%42%
Rasmussen Reports [35] September 27, 200942%40%
Public Policy Polling [36] September 7, 200946%36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question. [37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates. [38] [39]

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010 [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Janice Kay Brewer (inc.) 938,934 54.33% +18.89%
Democratic Samuel Pearson Goddard III 733,93542.43%−20.11%
Libertarian Barry Hess 38,7222.24%+0.27%
Green Larry Gist16,1280.93%
Write-ins3620.02%
Majority204,99911.86%−15.28%
Turnout 1,728,081
Republican hold Swing
By county
County [41] Jan Brewer
Republican 		Terry Goddard
Democratic 		Barry Hess
Libertarian 		Larry Gist
Green 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Apache 7,00233.8912,83962.145142.482941.4100.04-5,837-28.2520,659
Cochise 24,97462.3213,95434.827421.853980.9920.0011,02027.5040,070
Coconino 16,75443.0220,79253.398802.255051.27130.01-4,038-10.3738,942
Gila 11,16362.266,15534.324512.511580.8820.015,00827.9417,929
Graham 5,99465.482,86531.302202.40740.8000.003,12934.189,153
Greenlee 1,18748.481,17748.08602.45240.9800.00100.402,448
La Paz 3,04867.311,33029.37801.76701.5400.001,71837.944,528
Maricopa 543,04554.78415,14241.8824,0772.428,6000.862800.02127,90312.90991,144
Mohave 39,02672.6512,77723.781,3072.436011.1140.0026,24948.8753,715
Navajo 16,15754.4912,51742.226482.183171.0670.023,64012.2729,646
Pima 148,91647.18158,33750.176480.203170.10160.00-9,421-2.99315,589
Pinal 45,80758.2830,10938.3119222.447350.93180.0215,69819.9778,591
Santa Cruz 3,19031.766,60865.811381.371051.0400.00-3,418-34.0510,041
Yavapai 53,08165.2125,56931.411,8302.249001.1080.0027,51233.8081,388
Yuma 19,59057.2213,76440.205001.463801.1020.005,82617.0234,236
Totals938,93454.33733,93542.4338,7222.2416,1280.933620.02204,99911.901,728,081

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. ↑ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State" . Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
  3. ↑ Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic . Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  5. ↑ "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
  6. 1 2 3 "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
  7. ↑ Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. ↑ Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. ↑ Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic . Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ↑ Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic . Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.
  12. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  13. ↑ Rasmussen Reports [ permanent dead link ]
  14. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  15. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  16. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  17. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  18. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  19. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  20. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  21. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  22. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  25. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  26. ↑ BRC Polls
  27. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  28. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  30. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  32. 1 2 3 4 Rasmussen Reports
  33. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  34. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  37. ↑ "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News. Archived from the original on December 24, 2021.
  38. ↑ "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
  39. ↑ Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
  40. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  41. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

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