2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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  Ron Johnson, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Russ Feingold Official Portrait 3.jpg
Nominee Ron Johnson Russ Feingold
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,125,9321,020,841
Percentage51.86%47.02%
2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin by precinct.svg
Johnson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Feingold:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     
No data:     
U.S. senator before election

Russ Feingold
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold lost re-election to a fourth term to Republican challenger Ron Johnson, a businessman and first-time candidate. [1] Johnson was the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin since 1986. Feingold also became the fifth senator in a row from Wisconsin's Class 3 Senate seat to be defeated for re-election in the general election, and the seventh in a row overall to lose by a defeat in either the primary or general elections. Johnson was re-elected in 2016 in a rematch with Feingold. [2]

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot
Declined

Campaign

Former Republican Governor of Wisconsin Tommy Thompson had expressed an interest in challenging Feingold, [7] but ruled himself out of the race in April 2010. [8]

Johnson, a millionaire manufacturer and Tea Party movement favorite running for political office for the first time, was the frontrunner. In response to controversy over his ownership of stock in BP, Johnson said he would sell it when market conditions were favorable and possibly use the proceeds to help finance his Senate campaign. [9] Johnson was endorsed by: the Club for Growth, a fiscally conservative advocacy organization; former Wisconsin Republican Lt. Governor Margaret Farrow; Republican U.S. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina; [10] [11] and Wisconsin Republican U.S. Representatives Jim Sensenbrenner, Tom Petri and Paul Ryan. [12] Businessman David Westlake was endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus. [13] According to OpenSecrets, as of August 25, 2010, Johnson had invested $4.3 million of his own money into his campaign; this amount represented 71 percent of his campaign funds, while 27 percent of his campaign funds ($1.6 million) came from individual contributions. [14]

Polling

Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ron
Johnson		Dave
Westlake		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])June 26–27, 2010400± 4.9%49%11%––40%

Results

Republican Primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ron Johnson 500,821 84.7%
Republican David Westlake61,28710.4%
Republican Stephen M. Finn29,0024.9%
Total votes591,107 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Feingold's first television ad was a positive ad released in March. In July 2010, Feingold's second 2010 television election ad attacked Johnson for alleged support for offshore drilling in the Great Lakes. Johnson quickly countered Feingold with a television ad of his own. [18] Feingold's logo was Moving Forward. In one ad, he emphasized independence and called himself a "penny pincher." [19] Johnson argued that manufacturers and accountants were underrepresented in the U.S. Senate, and there were too many lawyers (57 out of 100 members, including Feingold). [20] Feingold received the endorsements of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Green Bay Press-Gazette. [21] The Beloit Daily News endorsed Johnson. [22]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [25] Lean R (flip)October 26, 2010
Rothenberg [26] Lean R (flip)October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics [27] Lean R (flip)October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Lean R (flip)October 21, 2010
CQ Politics [29] Lean R (flip)October 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Ron
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports May 25, 2010500± 4.5%46%44%3%6%
Rasmussen Reports June 21, 2010500± 4.5%46%45%3%6%
Public Policy Polling June 26–27, 2010638± 3.9%45%43%––12%
Rasmussen Reports July 13, 2010750± 4.0%46%47%2%6%
University of Wisconsin, Madison July 15, 2010500± 3.9%33%28%––44%
Magellan Strategies July 20, 20101,145± 2.9%45%43%3.7%8%
Rasmussen Reports July 27, 2010500± 4.0%46%48%2%5%
Rasmussen Reports August 11, 2010750± 4.0%46%47%2%5%
Rasmussen Reports August 24, 2010750± 4.0%46%47%1%5%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010750± 4.0%44%51%1%4%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2010––± 3.8%41%52%––7%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research September 17–21, 2010963± 3.0%45%51%2%2%
McClatchy/Marist September 26–28, 2010806± 3.5%45%52%1%3%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2010750± 4.0%42%54%2%2%
We the People September 29 – October 4, 2010400± 5.0%41%49%––––
We the People/Ispos October 8, 2010400± 5.0%44%51%––––
Rasmussen Reports October 11, 2010750± 4.0%45%52%––2%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 8–12, 20101,506± 2.5%44%52%1%––
St. Norbert College/WPR October 12–15, 2010402± 5.0%47%49%––4%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2010750± 4.0%46%53%0%1%
We the People October 24–27, 2010400± 5.0%44%48%––6%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 20101,372± 2.6%44%53%––3%
Marist College October 26–28, 2010811± 4.5%45%52%1%2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Russ
Feingold (D)		David
Westlake (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 26–27, 2010638± 3.9%45%38%--17%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 21, 2010500± 4.5%47%41%4%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)May 25, 2010500± 4.5%47%38%7%8%
Public Policy Polling (report)March 23, 2010700± 3.7%48%31%—21%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 16, 2010500± 4.5%51%35%5%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 17, 2010500± 4.5%47%37%6%10%
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])November 20–22, 2009767± 3.5%47%32%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Tommy
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
WPRI (report)September 27–29, 2009700± 3.8%39%43%—18%
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])November 20–22, 2009767± 3.5%50%41%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 26, 2010500± 4.5%43%47%6%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 17, 2010500± 4.5%43%48%3%5%
WPRI (report)March 9, 2010600± 4.0%39%51%—9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 16, 2010500± 4.5%45%47%3%4%
Public Policy Polling (report)March 23, 2010700± 3.7%47%44%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
Error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Terrence
Wall (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])November 20–22, 2009767± 3.5%48%34%—19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 17, 2010500± 4.5%47%39%6%7%
WPRI (report)March 9, 2010600± 4.0%47%32%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 16, 2010500± 4.5%49%40%3%9%
Public Policy Polling (report)March 23, 2010700± 3.7%48%34%—18%

Fundraising

Through December 31, 2010:

Candidate (Party)Net ReceiptsDisbursementsBeginning CashLatest Cash On HandDebt
Russ Feingold (D)$13,947,563$15,544,093$2,516,119$919,585$0
Ron Johnson (R)$15,509,297$15,316,651$0$192,646$8,708,465
Source: Federal Election Commission [30]

Results

General election results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ron Johnson 1,125,999 51.86% +7.75%
Democratic Russ Feingold (incumbent)1,020,95847.02%-8.33%
Constitution Rob Taylor23,4731.08%N/A
Write-in 9010.04%N/A
Total votes2,170,430 100.00% -26.4%
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. 1 2 "Johnson leads race for GOP Senate bid". www.jsonline.com.
  2. ↑ Meyer, Theodoric (November 9, 2016). "Johnson upsets Feingold to keep Wisconsin Senate seat". POLITICO. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  3. 1 2 "GOP's Ron Johnson announces Senate run while in La Crosse". WKOW. April 15, 2010. Retrieved May 19, 2010.
  4. ↑ Drake, Bruce (January 28, 2010). "Feingold May Be Vulnerable If Thompson Seeks His Wisconsin Senate Seat". Politics Daily . Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  5. ↑ "Leinenkugel abruptly exits – David Catanese". Politico.Com. May 23, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  6. ↑ Giroux, Greg (May 27, 2010). "Wisconsin: Wall Confirms Decision To End Senate Bid – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Ex-Gov Thompson Being Pushed To Run For Senate". WTAQ. January 26, 2010. Archived from the original on July 18, 2011. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  8. ↑ "Thompson tells tea party rally he won't run for U.S. Senate". JS Online. April 15, 2010. Retrieved April 16, 2010.
  9. ↑ "Attack Ad Puts Feingold Foe On Defensive Over Great Lakes Drilling – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. July 14, 2010. Archived from the original on July 19, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Ron Johnson". Ronjohnsonforsenate.com. Archived from the original on July 24, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Club For Growth Puts Muscle Into More Races – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. July 14, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[ dead link ]
  12. ↑ "Ron Johnson". Ronjohnsonforsenate.com. July 12, 2010. Archived from the original on July 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates – 2010 | Republican Liberty Caucus". Rlc.org. Archived from the original on August 13, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  14. ↑ OpenSecrets, August 25, 2010, accessed October 1, 2010, http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WIS2&cycle=2010
  15. ↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". POLITICO.
  16. ↑ "Rob Taylor for Senate website". Archived from the original on January 26, 2016. Retrieved September 11, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Real estate developer launches Senate campaign". WQOW. January 20, 2010. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Johnson Quick to Counterattack Feingold on Oil Ad". WNCT. Archived from the original on July 18, 2010. Retrieved July 15, 2010.
  19. ↑ Walker, Don (August 24, 2010). "Washington-based group airs ad attacking Feingold".
  20. ↑ "Ron Johnson says there are 57 lawyers, including Russ Feingold, in the U.S. Senate". @politifact.
  21. ↑ "Wis. Newspapers Unveil Election Endorsements". WISN.com. March 6, 2012. Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved September 17, 2019.
  22. ↑ "Johnson Leads Polls, Feingold Leads Endorsements". 620 WTMJ. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 27, 2010.
  23. ↑ Ramde, Dinesh (October 12, 2010). "Feingold and Johnson spar over funding of attack ads". Chippewa Herald. Associated Press. Retrieved June 16, 2016.
  24. ↑ "Feingold holds roundtable discussion in Eau Claire – WQOW TV: Eau Claire, WI NEWS18 News, Weather, and Sports".
  25. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  26. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  27. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  28. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  29. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  30. ↑ "Summary Reports Search Results – 2009–2010 Cycle". fec.gov. Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved July 9, 2011.
  31. ↑ "2010 Fall General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. December 1, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 21, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2015.
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