2010 United States Senate election in California

Last updated

2010 United States Senate election in California
Flag of California.svg
  2004 November 2, 2010 2016  
  Barbara Boxer, Official Portrait, 112th Congress (cropped 2).jpg Carly Fiorina in Sao Paulo, Brazil - 2004 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Barbara Boxer Carly Fiorina
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote5,218,1374,217,386
Percentage52.18%42.17%

2010 United States Senate election in California results map by county.svg
County results
Boxer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fiorina:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Barbara Boxer
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Barbara Boxer
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in California took place on November 2, 2010. The election was held alongside 33 other United States Senate elections in addition to congressional, state, and various local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer won re-election to a fourth term.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Controversies

Boxer

In 2009, Boxer was criticized for correcting a general who called her "ma'am". Brigadier General Michael Walsh was testifying on the Louisiana coastal restoration process in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and answered Boxer's query with "ma'am" when Boxer interrupted him. "Do me a favor," Boxer said. "can you say 'senator' instead of 'ma'am?'" "Yes, ma'am," Walsh interjected. "It's just a thing, I worked so hard to get that title, so I'd appreciate it. Thank you," she said. The Army's guide to protocol instructs service members to call members of the U.S. Senate "sir", "ma'am" or "senator". [2] [3] [4] Fiorina used this incident prominently in campaign ads, as did David Zucker, who directed a humorous commercial for RightChange.com titled 'Call Me Senator'.

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Barbara Boxer (incumbent) 1,957,920 81.0
Democratic Brian Quintana338,44213.9
Democratic Mickey Kaus123,5735.1
Total votes2,419,935 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Controversies

Fiorina

In February 2010, Carly Fiorina put out a campaign ad attacking Republican rival Tom Campbell featuring a "demon sheep", creating international, mostly negative, publicity. [5] [6]

The Los Angeles Times research of public records indicated Fiorina had failed to vote in most elections. Fiorina responded by saying, "I'm a lifelong registered Republican but I haven't always voted, and I will provide no excuse for it. You know, people die for the right to vote. And there are many, many Californians and Americans who exercise that civic duty on a regular basis. I didn't. Shame on me." [7] [8]

Campbell

Former State Senator and California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson alleged that during a telephone call with Carly Fiorina's campaign manager Marty Wilson, a longtime Sacramento political operative, Wilson expressed surprise that McPherson was endorsing Tom Campbell's candidacy, and called Campbell an anti-Semite. [9] Subsequently, Wilson strongly denied having made that charge against Campbell, thus leading to a controversy for the Fiorina campaign, where the credibility of Wilson was called into comparison with that of McPherson.

On March 5, the three principal Republican primary candidates, Campbell, DeVore, and Fiorina participated in a live, on-air debate, which was broadcast on KTKZ in Sacramento. The debate was called by Campbell, in order to respond to accusations of anti-Semitism and otherwise being unfriendly to the interests of Israel. [10]

Campbell had also been criticized for accepting campaign contributions (during his 2000 Senate race), from then-University of South Florida professor Sami Al-Arian. [11] On March 2, 2006, Al-Arian entered a guilty plea to a charge of conspiracy to help the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, a "specially designated terrorist" organization; he was sentenced to 57 months in prison and ordered deported following his prison term. [12] [13] The usually subdued Campbell responded very strongly to the accusations from the Fiorina campaign, saying, "I called for this debate today so that both of my opponents can bring up absolutely any charge they want. Air it, and let me respond to it. But there’s no place for calling me anti-Semitic, then denying it. That whispering campaign, that 'silent slander,' stops today." [14]

A dispute had been triggered as well by Campbell's 2002 letter in defense of Al-Arian. Campbell said he had not been aware of the charges against Al-Arian when he wrote his January 21, 2002, letter to USF's president, asking USF not to discipline Al-Arian. [15] [16] [17]

He also said he had not been aware that Al-Arian had said, in a speech discussed in a 2001 television interview with Bill O'Reilly before Campbell wrote his letter: "Jihad is our path. Victory to Islam. Death to Israel." [18] Campbell said:

I did not hear, I did not read, I was not aware of statements Sami Al-Arian had made relative to Israel. And I would not have written the letter had I known about those. ... To say 'Death to Israel' is abhorrent, it's horrible. [18]

Campbell said he was sorry he wrote the letter, adding that he did not know about the statements at the time. He said he should have researched that matter more thoroughly, and he would have known. [15] [18] [19] [20]

Initially, Campbell had maintained that Al-Arian had never contributed to his 2000 Senate campaign. [21] That turned out to be untrue. [21] Campbell also initially said his letter defending Al-Arian was sent before the O'Reilly broadcast where Al-Arian admitted saying "death to Israel," but that also turned out to be incorrect. [21] Campbell said his misstatements were the result of the events having taken place years prior. [21]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom CampbellCarly FiorinaChuck DeVoreOtherUndecided
The Field Poll (report)Feb. 20 – March 1, 2009298±3.6%31%19%36%
The Field Poll (report)Sept. 18 – October 6, 2009373±4.5%21%20%59%
Los Angeles Times (report)Oct. 27 – November 3, 200949927%27%2%40%
The Field Poll (report)January 5–17, 2010202±7.1%30%25%6%39%
PPIC (report)January 27, 20102,001±2.0%27%16%8%1%48%
M4 Strategies (report)February 26, 201042732%19%11%39%
Research 2000 (report)March 10, 2010400±5.0%33%24%7%36%
PPIC (report)March 24, 20102,002±2.0%23%24%8%1%44%
Los Angeles Times (report)March 23–30, 20101,515±2.6%29%25%9%4%33%
Survey USA (report)April 19–21, 2010538±4.3%34%27%14%3%23%
Survey USA (report)May 6–9, 2010548±4.3%35%24%15%3%23%
Research 2000 (report)May 17–19, 2010400±5.0%37%22%14%27%
PPIC (report)May 9–16, 20101,168±3.0%23%25%16%36%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 21–23, 2010417±4.8%21%41%16%18%
Survey USA (report)May 21–23, 2010612±4.3%23%46%14%6%11%
Los Angeles Times (report)May 19–26, 20101,506±2.6%23%38%16%23%
Survey USA (report)June 3–6, 2010569±4.2%22%48%16%9%

Results

Results by county:
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Fiorina
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Campbell
40-50% 2010 United States Senate Republican primary election in California results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Fiorina
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Campbell
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Carly Fiorina 1,315,429 56.4
Republican Tom Campbell504,28921.7
Republican Chuck DeVore452,57719.3
Republican Al Ramirez42,1491.8
Republican Tim Kalemkarian19,5980.8
Total votes2,334,042 100.0

Third party primaries

Candidates

American Independent

California American Independent Senate primary, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
American Independent Edward Noonan 16,704 39.5
American Independent Don Grundmann14,17033.5
American Independent Al Salehi11,42327.0
Total votes42,297 100.0

Green

California Green Senate primary, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Duane Roberts 19,983 100.00%
Total votes19,983 100.0

Libertarian

California Libertarian Senate primary, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Gail Lightfoot 17,791 100.00%
Total votes17,791 100.0

Peace and Freedom

California Peace and Freedom Senate primary, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Peace and Freedom Marsha Feinland 4,070 100.00%
Total votes4,070 100.0

General election

Candidates

The following were certified by the California Secretary of State as candidates in the general election for Senator. [22]

Campaign

Boxer criticized Fiorina's choice "to become a CEO, lay off 30,000 workers, ship jobs overseas [and] have two yachts." A spokesman for Fiorina responded that the Fiorinas were a two-yacht family because they spent time in both California and Washington, D.C. [23] Boxer also claimed that Fiorina "skirted the law" by selling equipment to Iran during her tenure as HP's CEO, also claiming that the equipment may have ended up in the hands of the Iranian military. [24]

Debate

The only debate took place on September 1 at Saint Mary's College of California in Moraga. It was sponsored by San Francisco Chronicle, KTVU, and KQED. [25]

2010 United States Senate election in California debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
BoxerFiorina
1Sep. 1, 2010 KQED-FM
KTVU
San Francisco Chronicle
Randy Shandobil C-SPAN PP

Predictions

Senate Ratings Table 2010 CA.svg
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report TossupOctober 26, 2010
Congressional Quarterly Lean DOctober 26, 2010
FiveThirtyEight Likely DOctober 26, 2010
New York Times TossupOctober 26, 2010
Rasmussen Reports TossupOctober 26, 2010
RealClearPolitics TossupOctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg Tilt DOctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean DOctober 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Barbara Boxer (D)Carly Fiorina (R)OtherUndecided
The Field Poll (report)Feb. 20 – March 1, 2009761± 3.6%55%25%20%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 9, 2009500± 4.5%47%38%10%5%
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 22, 2009500± 4.5%45%41%7%7%
Research 2000 (report)August 9–12, 2009600± 4.0%52%31%17%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 23, 2009500± 4.5%49%39%4%8%
The Field Poll (report)Sept. 18 – October 6, 20091,005± 3.2%49%35%16%
Rasmussen Reports (report)November 17, 2009500± 4.5%46%37%5%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 14, 2010500± 4.5%46%43%3%8%
The Field Poll (report)January 5–17, 20101,005± 3.2%50%35%15%
PPIC (report)January 27, 20102,001± 2.0%48%40%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 11, 2010500± 4.5%46%42%7%5%
Research 2000 (report)March 10, 2010600± 4.0%49%40%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 11, 2010500± 4.5%46%40%4%10%
The Field Poll (report)March 18, 2010748± 3.7%45%44%11%
PPIC (report)March 24, 20102,002± 2.0%44%43%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 12, 2010500± 4.5%42%38%7%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)May 12, 2010500± 4.5%45%38%4%12%
PPIC (report)May 9–16, 20102,003± 2.0%48%39%13%
Research 2000 (report)May 17–19, 2010600± 4.0%48%39%
Los Angeles Times (report)May 19–26, 201044%38%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 21–23, 2010921± 3.2%45%42%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 9, 2010500± 4.5%48%43%5%5%
Reuters (report)June 30, 2010600± 4.5%45%41%1%13%
Survey USA (report)July 8–11, 2010614± 4.0%45%47%3%5%
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 12, 2010500± 4.5%49%42%4%5%
Public Policy Polling (report)July 23–25, 2010614± 3.95%49%40%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 3, 2010750± 4.0%45%40%5%10%
Survey USA/CBS 5 (report)August 9–11, 2010602± 4.0%42%47%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 24, 2010750± 4.0%44%43%5%8%
Survey USA (report)August 31 – September 1, 2010569± 4.2%46%48%5%1%
CNN(report Archived September 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine )September 2–7, 2010866± 3.5%48%44%5%3%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 6, 2010750± 4.0%42%47%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 6, 2010750± 4.0%47%48%2%3%
Fox News (report)September 11, 20101,000± 3.0%46%44%4%6%
Public Policy Polling (report)September 14–16, 2010630± 3.9%50%42%8%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report)September 18, 20101,000± 3.0%47%46%3%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 20, 2010750± 4.0%47%43%4%6%
Survey USA (report)September 19–21, 2010610± 4.0%49%43%6%2%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation (report)September 24–28, 2010786± 3.5%52%43%3%2%
PPIC report September 19–26, 20101,104± 3%42%35%6%17%
USC poll report September 27, 20101,00339%34%23%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 3, 2010750± 4.0%49%45%2%5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report)October 6, 2010501± 4.5%55%39%6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 13, 2010750± 4.0%49%46%2%3%
Reuters (report)October 12–14, 2010601± 4.0%46%45%2%6%
PPIC (report)October 10–17, 20101,067± 3.5%43%38%6%13%
Tarrance Group (report)October 17–19, 2010± 4.1%44%44%6%5%
USC/LA Times (report)October 13–20, 2010878± 3.2%50%42%4%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 21, 2010750± 4.0%48%46%3%3%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 21–23, 2010622± 3.2%52%43%0%5%
Fox/Pulse Opinion Research (report)October 23, 20101,000± 3.0%48%44%5%3%
Suffolk University (report Archived November 4, 2010, at the Wayback Machine )October 21–24, 2010600± 4.0%52%43%4%2%
SurveyUSA (report)October 21–25, 2010594± 4.1%45%40%7%8%
Field Poll (report)October 14–26, 20101,501± 3.2%49%41%10%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report)October 20–26, 20101,527± 2.5%50%45%1%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 27, 2010750± 4.0%49%46%2%3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report)October 28–29, 2010485± 4.5%51%44%5%
SurveyUSA (report)October 26–31, 2010587± 4.1%46%38%6%10%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 29–31, 2010882± 3.3%50%46%3%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDates administeredBarbara BoxerChuck DeVore
Research 2000 [26] August 9–12, 200953%29%
Rasmussen Reports [27] September 23, 200946%37%
The Field Poll [28] September 18 – October 6, 200950%33%
Rasmussen Reports [29] November 17, 200946%36%
Rasmussen Reports [30] January 14, 201046%40%
The Field Poll [31] January 5–17, 201051%34%
PPIC [32] January 27, 201047%39%
Rasmussen Reports [33] February 11, 201047%42%
Research 2000 [34] March 10, 201049%39%
Rasmussen Reports [35] March 11, 201046%40%
Field Research [36] March 18, 201045%41%
PPIC [37] March 24, 201046%40%
Rasmussen Reports [38] April 12, 201042%39%
Rasmussen Reports [38] May 12, 201046%40%
Public Policy Institute of California (Report)May 201050%39%
Research 2000 [39] May 17–19, 201047%38%
Public Policy Polling [40] May 21–23, 201046%40%
USC/Los Angeles Times (Report)May 19–26, 201046%36%
Poll sourceDates administeredBarbara BoxerTom Campbell
Rasmussen Reports [30] January 14, 201046%42%
The Field Poll [31] January 5–17, 201048%38%
PPIC [32] January 27, 201045%41%
Rasmussen Reports [33] February 11, 201045%41%
Research 2000 [34] March 10, 201047%43%
Rasmussen Reports [35] March 11, 201043%41%
Field Research [36] March 18, 201043%44%
PPIC [37] March 24, 201043%44%
Rasmussen Reports [38] April 12, 201042%41%
Rasmussen Reports [38] May 12, 201042%41%
Public Policy Institute of California (Report)May 201046%40%
Research 2000 [39] May 17–19, 201047%40%
Public Policy Polling [40] May 21–23, 201047%40%
USC/Los Angeles Times (Report)May 19–26, 201038%45%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Barbara Boxer (D)$20,314,189$22,178,746$2,271,034$0
Carly Fiorina (R)$17,935,605$16,664,055$1,271,550$805,844
Jerry Carroll (I)$140$140$10$1,305
Marsha Feinland (P&F)$0$0$0$0
Neil Goldberg (I)$0$0$0$0
Gail Lightfoot (L)$0$0$0$0
Edward Noonan (AI)$0$0$0$0
Duane Roberts (G)$0$0$0$12,562
Source: Federal Election Commission (FEC) [41]
(Note that some candidates filed with the FEC, but did not pursue their candidacy.)

Results

Despite the last poll before the election showed Fiorina only trailing by 4 points, on election night Boxer defeated Fiorina by a ten-point margin, and around a one million vote majority. Boxer performed extremely well in Los Angeles County, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Boxer was declared the winner shortly after the polls closed. Fiorina conceded defeat to Boxer at 11:38 P.M.

United States Senate election in California, 2010 [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Barbara Boxer (incumbent) 5,218,137 52.18% −5.53%
Republican Carly Fiorina 4,217,38642.17%+4.37%
Libertarian Gail Lightfoot175,2351.75%−0.05%
Peace and Freedom Marsha Feinland135,0881.35%−0.67%
Green Duane Roberts128,5121.29%N/A
American Independent Edward Noonan125,4351.25%+0.58%
Write-in 670.00%±0.00%
Total votes9,999,860 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

Results from the Secretary of State of California. [43]

County Boxer Votes Fiorina VotesNoonanVotesRobertsVotesLightfootVotesFeinlandVotes
Alameda 73.9%338,63222.1%100,9890.7%3,3621.3%5,5601.1%5,3340.9%4,537
Alpine 50.9%28244.0%2440.7%40.7%42.5%141.2%7
Amador 31.9%5,13759.6%9,6172.3%3641.2%2093.0%4802.0%334
Butte 37.0%27,82754.5%40,9581.8%1,3931.9%1,4352.9%2,1811.9%1,456
Calaveras 32.1%6,29458.6%11,4953.0%5931.6%3263.1%6171.6%324
Colusa 30.3%1,56763.4%3,2881.4%761.2%672.2%1091.5%81
Contra Costa 59.8%206,27035.9%123,9341.0%3,4921.0%3,6071.4%4,9960.9%3,181
Del Norte 39.4%3,21252.0%4,2402.1%1771.8%1543.0%2451.7%139
El Dorado 32.7%25,08561.0%46,7711.3%1,0431.1%9102.4%1,8221.5%1,129
Fresno 37.5%74,70557.0%113,5831.3%2,6331.2%2,4311.5%3,0671.5%3,079
Glenn 25.5%2,02066.3%5,2572.1%1741.6%1282.7%2081.8%143
Humboldt 54.6%27,08137.6%18,6590.8%4203.2%1,5742.5%1,2841.3%653
Imperial 55.6%14,80237.2%9,8871.2%3411.9%5161.9%5112.2%570
Inyo 33.8%2,35356.2%3,9092.4%1691.7%1203.5%2412.4%170
Kern 30.0%51,36462.0%106,4481.9%3,3021.4%2,4352.6%4,5222.1%3,641
Kings 30.0%7,81662.7%16,3622.2%5601.1%3091.9%5202.1%542
Lake 49.0%10,26540.8%8,5342.8%5852.4%5053.0%6252.0%440
Lassen 24.0%2,20066.7%6,1271.6%1551.7%1574.0%3742.0%185
Los Angeles 62.3%1,432,45032.6%749,3531.0%23,1981.2%29,3231.5%33,4311.4%32,168
Madera 30.3%10,30862.9%21,4131.7%6011.3%4621.9%6321.9%630
Marin 69.3%78,23627.5%31,0010.6%7560.9%9821.1%1,2370.6%710
Mariposa 31.8%2,59360.4%4,9391.9%1581.7%1472.8%2231.4%118
Mendocino 61.6%19,42229.9%9,4262.0%6432.8%8672.3%7491.4%472
Merced 40.2%19,05853.4%25,2801.7%8271.2%5761.8%8541.7%831
Modoc 20.9%78770.6%2,6662.2%841.4%563.1%1161.8%68
Mono 43.5%1,15550.1%1,4551.7%1541.5%812.1%761.1%556
Monterey 59.1%58,57435.0%34,7211.1%1,1821.3%1,3152.0%1,9141.5%1,497
Napa 56.2%26,19438.1%17,7431.4%6581.5%7321.8%8361.0%511
Nevada 40.9%18,50452.7%23,8750.6%3101.8%8603.1%1,3670.9%424
Orange 37.1%323,47757.7%502,7561.1%10,4321.1%10,1371.7%14,6251.3%10,904
Placer 33.6%47,33160.2%84,9051.5%2,1421.0%1,5182.2%3,2391.5%2,132
Plumas 32.1%2,93460.3%5,5211.7%1611.4%1312.8%2571.7%160
Riverside 40.7%195,41853.2%255,7381.6%8,1171.2%6,0461.8%8,3211.5%7,404
Sacramento 50.4%210,16443.5%181,3001.6%6,8331.1%4,9812.1%8,6671.3%5,560
San Benito 49.7%7,90943.8%6,9771.3%2151.1%1912.2%3371.9%307
San Bernardino 42.7%185,16449.9%216,4411.8%8,1111.4%6,3022.4%10,4241.8%7,926
San Diego 43.5%389,80650.7%454,3011.3%11,7251.3%11,8081.8%16,5781.4%12,585
San Francisco 80.0%213,25216.2%43,1080.6%1,6301.5%3,8631.0%2,7800.7%1,937
San Joaquin 44.5%70,03148.5%76,3421.6%2,6081.3%2,1222.1%3,3582.0%3,175
San Luis Obispo 42.8%44,79951.2%53,6951.2%1,3471.1%1,2502.5%2,5211.2%1,293
San Mateo 66.5%146,53729.9%65,8030.8%1,8661.0%2,2081.2%2,6050.6%1,480
Santa Barbara 49.8%64,77145.2%58,8171.0%1,4251.0%1,4321.8%2,2431.2%1,578
Santa Clara 63.3%320,73432.0%161,9861.0%5,1051.1%5,7111.6%8,1481.0%5,295
Santa Cruz 68.6%65,04925.4%24,0650.9%9231.6%1,5792.2%2,0482.3%1,257
Shasta 26.4%17,20466.1%43,0562.0%1,2661.3%9022.6%1,6831.6%1,060
Sierra 29.1%52962.3%1,1352.4%451.4%272.8%512.0%37
Siskiyou 33.7%6,13257.2%10,4302.2%4051.4%2703.6%6481.9%360
Solano 55.1%64,65839.2%45,9951.3%1,6001.2%1,4292.0%2,2891.2%1,460
Sonoma 64.3%116,99629.5%53,6781.4%2,6861.5%2,8062.1%3,7201.2%2,281
Stanislaus 39.6%47,15853.6%63,8141.6%2,0071.5%1,7892.0%2,4551.7%2,029
Sutter 31.9%8,12161.2%15,6061.9%4871.1%2922.4%6071.5%408
Tehama 26.6%5,35264.3%12,9502.6%5241.5%3213.1%6221.9%397
Trinity 37.1%2,02951.4%2,8132.0%1123.5%1924.4%2421.6%90
Tulare 30.6%24,74262.9%50,8561.5%1,2641.1%9211.8%1,5092.1%1,625
Tuolumne 33.4%7,43058.6%13,0572.6%5761.6%3592.5%5641.3%304
Ventura 44.8%115,33749.9%128,6191.3%3,3941.1%3,0951.8%4,5861.12,965
Yolo 59.0%34,92535.9%21,2631.1%6831.2%7641.7%9731.1%677
Yuba 32.4%5,21258.6%9,4522.4%3941.4%2313.3%5361.9%210
California counties shift 2004-2010 senate.svg
California counties trend 2004-2010 senate.svg
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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