2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

Last updated

2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
Flag of Massachusetts.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
Turnout54.81% Decrease2.svg 1.42 [1]
  Deval Patrick official photo (1).jpg Charlie Baker cropped (1).jpg Timothy Cahill (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Deval Patrick Charlie Baker Tim Cahill
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Tim Murray Richard Tisei Paul Loscocco
(withdrawn) [2]
Popular vote1,112,283964,866184,395
Percentage48.42%42.00%8.03%
2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election by Town.svg
2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
MA Governor 2010.svg
Patrick:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Baker:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Cahill:     40–50%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes
Governor before election

Deval Patrick
Democratic

Elected Governor

Deval Patrick
Democratic

The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term. [3]

Contents

Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries. [4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Withdrew

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredDeval PatrickGrace Ross
Suffolk University [8] February 21–24, 201059%15%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Eliminated at convention
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredCharlie BakerChristy Mihos
The Boston Globe /UNH [19] July 15–21, 200927%20%
Suffolk University [20] November 4–8, 200930%33%
Suffolk University [8] February 21–24, 201047%17%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

General election

Candidates

  • Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative
  • Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
  • Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor [23]

Campaign

Defection of Loscocco

On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker. [2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however. [24] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection. [25] Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises. [26] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort. [27]

Lottery ad

Soon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations. [25] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people." [28]

On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor. [29] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy. [30]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [31] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [32] Tilt DOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [33] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [35] TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling

PollDateDeval
Patrick (D)		Charlie
Baker (R)		Tim
Cahill (I)		Jill
Stein (GR)
Rasmussen Reports [36] June 24, 200941%36%––
The Boston Globe /UNH [19] July 15–21, 200930%20%30%–
35%41%––
Rasmussen Reports [37] October 22, 200934%24%23%–
Suffolk University [38] November 4–8, 200938%15%26%–
Rasmussen Reports [37] November 23, 200933%28%25%–
The Boston Globe /UNH [19] January 2–6, 201030%19%23%–
Public Policy Polling [39] January 7–9, 201029%27%21%–
Suffolk University [8] February 21–24, 201033%25%23%3%
Rasmussen Reports [37] March 8, 201035%32%19%–
Rasmussen Reports [37] April 5, 201035%27%23%–
April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated
Rasmussen Reports [37] May 10, 201045%31%14%1%
Suffolk University [40] May 25, 201042%29%14%8%
Rasmussen Reports [41] June 21, 201041%34%16%–
The Boston Globe /UNH [42] June 17–23, 201038%31%9%2%
Rasmussen Reports [43] July 22, 201038%32%17%–
Statehouse News [44] August 29–31, 201034%28%18%4%
Rasmussen Reports [43] September 1, 201039%34%18%–
Rasmussen Reports [43] September 17, 201045%42%5%–
Suffolk University /7 News [45] September 16–19, 201041%34%14%4%
The Boston Globe /UNH [46] September 17–22, 201035%34%11%4%
Western New England College [47] September 19–23, 201039%33%16%3%
Rasmussen Reports [43] September 30, 201047%42%6%–
Suffolk University 7 News [48] October 10–12, 201046%39%10%1%
Public Opinion Strategies [49] October 11–13, 201035%42%10%2%
Rasmussen Reports [43] October 18, 201047%42%6%–
Western New England College [50] October 22, 201044%36%8%5%
Boston Globe [51] October 24, 201043%39%8%2%
Suffolk University/7News [52] October 25–27, 201046%39%9%2%
Rasmussen Reports [53] October 27, 201046%44%6%—
Western New England College [54] October 24–28, 201042%37%11%3%
Results (for comparison)[November 2, 2010][ 48.4% ][ 42.0% ][ 8.0% ][ 1.4% ]
Hypothetical polling

with Christy Mihos

Poll sourceDates administeredDeval PatrickChristy MihosJill SteinTim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports [36] June 24, 200940%41%––––
The Boston Globe /UNH [19] July 15–21, 200931%18%––31%
40%41%––––
Rasmussen Reports [55] August 20, 200935%40%––––
Rasmussen Reports [37] October 22, 200934%23%––23%
Suffolk University [56] November 4–8, 200936%20%––26%
Rasmussen Reports [37] November 23, 200932%26%––28%
The Boston Globe /UNH [19] January 2–6, 201032%19%––23%
Public Policy Polling [39] January 7–9, 201028%21%––25%
Suffolk University [8] February 21–24, 201034%19%3%26%
Rasmussen Reports [37] March 8, 201034%19%––30%
Rasmussen Reports [37] April 5, 201038%15%––33%

with Grace Ross

Poll sourceDates administeredGrace RossCharlie BakerTim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports [37] May 10, 201027%32%16%

Fundraising

As of October 31, 2010. [57] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.

Candidate (Party)RaisedSpentBalance
Tim Cahill (I)$570,345.01$277,655.73$292,689.28
Charlie Baker (R)$736,877.30$491,089.99$245,787.31
Deval Patrick (D)$606,991.19$459,858.16$147,133.03
Jill Stein (G)$64,454.75$22,068.50$42,386.25

Results

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010 [58]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Deval Patrick (incumbent) 1,112,283 48.42 Decrease2.svg7.21
Republican Charlie Baker 964,86642.00Increase2.svg6.67
Independent Tim Cahill 184,3958.03Increase2.svg1.06
Green-Rainbow Jill Stein 32,8951.43Decrease2.svg0.51
Write-inAll others2,6000.11Decrease2.svg0.01
Total votes2,297,039
 Blank22,924
Turnout 2,319,963
Majority147,4176.41
Democratic hold Swing –13.88

Results by county

2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [59]
CountyPatrick %Patrick #Baker %Baker #Others %Others #Total #
Barnstable 43.8%47,12447.0%50,6099.2%9,876107,609
Berkshire 70.3%30,26921.5%9,2668.2%3,52743,062
Bristol 46.3%81,05941.8%73,22011.8%20,724175,003
Dukes 57.6%4,90832.3%2,75710.1%8628,527
Essex 43.2%116,36047.5%127,9649.3%25,148269,472
Franklin 60.8%17,06824.4%6,83814.9%4,17028,076
Hampden 45.4%62,81639.5%54,65315.1%20,857138,326
Hampshire 58.4%33,31728.0%15,99413.6%7,75257,063
Middlesex 50.8%283,22140.6%226,2728.7%48,481557,974
Nantucket 50.7%2,45438.2%1,84611.1%5384,838
Norfolk 43.80%119,80643.81%119,85012.4%33,882273,538
Plymouth 38.3%74,35549.8%96,59211.9%23,105194,052
Suffolk 67.0%125,96124.9%46,8228.1%15,292188,075
Worcester 41.4%113,56548.2%132,18310.4%28,440274,188

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Our Campaigns - MA Governor Race - Nov 02, 2010". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
  2. 1 2 Loscocco declared he would drop out and endorse the Republican ticket. However, there was no way to drop out by that time, so he remained on the ballot.Bierman, Noah; Levenson, Michael; Ellement, John R. (October 1, 2010). "'I won't give in,' Cahill declares as he vows to stay in race". The Boston Globe . Retrieved October 5, 2010.
  3. ↑ Phillips, Frank; Levenson, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Patrick roars to 2d term". The Boston Globe . Retrieved November 3, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Massachusetts primary election 2010". The Washington Post . September 14, 2010. Archived from the original on October 8, 2012. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
  5. 1 2 Chabot, Hillary (April 2, 2009). "Deval: I will run again". Boston Herald . Archived from the original on April 3, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  6. ↑ Ebbert, Stephanie (June 2, 2010). "Always on the run: Despite lack of funds, mounting string of losses, quixotic politicians carry on for their causes". The Boston Globe . Retrieved June 2, 2010.
  7. ↑ Alexander Burns (February 5, 2010). "Ross launches Patrick primary challenge". Politico.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Suffolk University
  9. 1 2 Hillary Chabot, Christine McConville & Jessica Van Sack (July 8, 2009). "Charles D. Baker leaving Harvard Pilgrim to run for governor". Boston Herald . Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  10. 1 2 "Baker a favorite for 2010 among Massachusetts delegates". Politicker.com.[ permanent dead link ]
  11. 1 2 "Charlie Baker 2010 Governor". Draftcharlie.com. Archived from the original on March 1, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  12. ↑ Matt Collette (April 27, 2009). "Mihos plans another run for governor". The Boston Globe . Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  13. ↑ "GOP throws full support behind Charlie Baker for governor". Boston Herald. Retrieved April 23, 2010.
  14. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Kerry Healey". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 21, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  15. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Bob Hedlund". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on January 28, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  16. ↑ Shore won, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Joe Malone". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on April 24, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Draft Mike Sullivan for Governor". Draftsullivan.com. Archived from the original on March 13, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  18. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Michael Sullivan". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 10, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 The Boston Globe/UNH
  20. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
  21. ↑ "Tim for Governor". Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved September 18, 2010.
  22. ↑ Stein to jump into gov race with Green-Rainbow bid Boston Herald , January 7, 2010
  23. ↑ "Gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein of Green-Rainbow Party, introduces lieutenant governor candidate Richard P. Purcell, of Holyoke". The Republican (Springfield) . April 3, 2010.
  24. ↑ "2010 State Election Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division. Retrieved October 5, 2010.
  25. 1 2 Johnson, Glen (October 8, 2010). "Mass. Lottery chief: No ad collusion with Cahill". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  26. ↑ Phillips, Frank (October 7, 2010). "Cahill files lawsuit alleging dirty political tricks in Mass". The Boston Globe.
  27. ↑ Stephanie Ebbert and Michael Levenson (October 9, 2010). "Campaign crossfire hotter still". The Boston Globe . Retrieved January 5, 2012.
  28. ↑ Denise Lavoie; Glen Johnson (October 14, 2010). "E-mails appear to link Mass. candidate, lottery ad". The Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 15, 2015. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  29. ↑ Phillips, Frank (April 2, 2012). "Timothy Cahill indicted on charges of using official funds for campaign-boosting ads". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 2, 2012.
  30. ↑ Cassidy, Chris (December 12, 2012). "Tim Cahill 'thrilled' that mistrial declared". Boston Herald. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  31. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  32. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  33. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  34. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  35. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  36. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Rasmussen Reports
  38. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
  39. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  40. ↑ Suffolk University
  41. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ↑ The Boston Globe/UNH
  43. 1 2 3 4 5 Rasmussen Reports
  44. ↑ Statehouse News
  45. ↑ Suffolk University / 7 News
  46. ↑ The Boston Globe/UNH
  47. ↑ Western New England College [ permanent dead link ]
  48. ↑ Suffolk University 7 News
  49. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies
  50. ↑ Western New England College
  51. ↑ Boston Globe
  52. ↑ Suffolk University/7News
  53. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  54. ↑ Western New England College
  55. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  56. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine
  57. ↑ Source: "OCPF Searchable Campaign Finance Database & Electronic Filing System". Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on July 26, 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
  58. ↑ "2010 Return of Votes Complete Statistics" (PDF). Massachusetts Elections Division. December 1, 2010. Retrieved December 4, 2010.
  59. ↑ "PD43+ » Search Elections". PD43+. Retrieved February 11, 2024.

Debates

Campaign

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