2010 Illinois gubernatorial election

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2010 Illinois gubernatorial election
Flag of Illinois.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
Turnout49.69% Increase2.svg 2.40 pp
  Governor Pat Quinn (a).jpg Bill Brady.jpg
Nominee Pat Quinn Bill Brady
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Sheila Simon Jason Plummer
Popular vote1,745,2191,713,385
Percentage46.79%45.94%
2010 Illinois gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Quinn:      40–50%     60–70%
Brady:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Pat Quinn
Democratic

Elected Governor

Pat Quinn
Democratic

The 2010 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn was elected to a full term in office, having become governor in 2009 following the impeachment and removal of Governor Rod Blagojevich. [1] Quinn was elected as the Democratic nominee, [2] the Illinois Green Party nominee was attorney and 2006 nominee Rich Whitney, the Republican nominee was State Senator Bill Brady, the Libertarian Party nominee was Lex Green, and Scott Lee Cohen ran as an independent.

Contents

Quinn was elected to a full term in a very close race, defeating Brady by only about 32,000 votes with Brady carrying 98 of the state's 102 counties. [3] Prior to the general election, the primary election in February 2010 featured extremely close races between candidates for the two largest parties' nominations. Quinn warded off a challenge by Comptroller Dan Hynes by a margin of about 8,300 votes, while Brady won the Republican nomination on the strength of fewer than 200 votes in a fractured seven-way race. This was the first time Gallatin County went Republican for the governor level since 1920. The election marked the first time since 1852 that the Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Illinois. [4] This is also the first gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

The primaries and general elections coincided with those for federal elections (Senate and House), as well as those for other state offices. The election was part of the 2010 Illinois elections.

For the primaries, turnout for the gubernatorial primaries was 22.21%, with 1,688,297 votes cast and turnout for the lieutenant gubernatorial primaries was 20.10% with 1,527,782 votes cast. [5] [6] For the general election, turnout was 49.69%, with 3,729,989 votes cast. [5] [6]

Democratic primaries

Quinn defeated Hynes by just under 9,000 votes, while Cohen won an upset over establishment candidates by just over 3% campaigning as a political outsider. [7]

Governor

Candidates

Debates

Democratic candidates Quinn and Hynes debated on January 19. [8] WSIU Public Broadcasting (WSIU (FM)/WSIU-TV) at Southern Illinois University and Illinois Public Media (WILL AM/FM/TV) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign also co-sponsored two gubernatorial primary election debates. [9] [10] Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes debated on January 21, 2010. [11]

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredPat
Quinn		Lisa
Madigan		Dan
Hynes		Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 26, 201040%–41%19%
Chicago Tribune January 16–20, 201044%–40%15%
Chicago Tribune December 2–8, 200949%–23%23%
Simon Public Policy [ permanent dead link ]October 16, 200933.9%–16.5%35.4%
Public Policy Polling April 24–26, 200929%45%–26%

Results

County results Illinois Governor D Primary 2010.svg
County results
Democratic gubernatorial primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Pat Quinn (incumbent) 462,049 50.46
Democratic Daniel Hynes 453,67749.54
Total votes915,726 100.00

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Results

Primary results by county: Cohen .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cohen--41-50% Cohen--31-40% Cohen--21-30% Turner Turner--21-30% Boland Boland--61-70% Boland--51-60% Boland--41-50% Boland--31-40% Boland--21-30% Castillo Castillo--31-40% Castillo--21-30% Link Link-41-50% Link-31-40% Link-21-30% Tie Tie between Cohen and Boland-27% Illinois 2010 Lt. Governor Democratic Primary county map.svg
Primary results by county:
Cohen
  •   Cohen—41-50%
  •   Cohen—31-40%
  •   Cohen—21-30%
Turner
  •   Turner—21-30%
Boland
  •   Boland—61-70%
  •   Boland—51-60%
  •   Boland—41-50%
  •   Boland—31-40%
  •   Boland—21-30%
Castillo
  •   Castillo—31-40%
  •   Castillo—21-30%
Link
  •   Link-41-50%
  •   Link-31-40%
  •   Link-21-30%
Tie
  •   Tie between Cohen and Boland-27%
Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Scott Lee Cohen 213,475 25.97
Democratic Arthur Turner 183,20822.29
Democratic Rickey R. Hendon 113,69013.83
Democratic Mike Boland 105,86712.88
Democratic Thomas Michael Castillo105,38312.82
Democratic Terry Link 100,33512.21
Total votes821,958 100.00

Aftermath

Scott Lee Cohen was replaced as the Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee by former Carbondale City Councilwoman Sheila Simon after he withdrew due to allegations of abuse toward his wife and other charges. [14]

Republican primaries

As on the Democratic side, both the gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial primaries were extremely close, though moreso. Brady defeated Dillard by 0.02%, while Plummer defeated Murphy by just 0.65%.

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Results

County results Illinois Governor R Primary 2010.svg
County results
Republican gubernatorial primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bill Brady 155,527 20.26
Republican Kirk Dillard 155,33420.24
Republican Andy McKenna 148,05419.29
Republican Jim Ryan 130,78517.04
Republican Adam Andrzejewski111,03014.47
Republican Dan Proft 59,3357.73
Republican Bob Schillerstrom 7,4200.97
Total votes767,485 100.00

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Withdrawn

Results

Plummer 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Murphy 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Tracy 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 80-90% Cole 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% White 30-40% 2010 Illinois lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
  Plummer
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Murphy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50-60%
  Tracy
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   80–90%
  Cole
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  White
  •   30-40%
Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jason Plummer 238,169 33.98
Republican Matt Murphy 233,57233.33
Republican Don Tracy 80,11611.43
Republican Brad Cole61,3178.75
Republican Dennis W. Cook55,3397.90
Republican Randy A. White Sr.32,3434.61
Total votes700,856 100.00

Green primaries

Governor

Candidates

Results

Green Party primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Rich Whitney 5,086 100.00
Total votes5,086 100.00

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

  • Don Crawford

Results

Green lieutenant gubernatorial primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Don W. Crawford 4,968 33.98
Total votes4,968 100.00

General election

Candidates

Campaign

After the February 2 Democratic primary in which incumbent Governor Pat Quinn was nominated, attention was drawn to Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. Illinois law required that candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in separate primary elections, but run as a ticket in the November general election. Cohen was criticized for his having been charged with domestic battery, in which he was accused of holding a knife to the throat of an ex-girlfriend who was also a convicted prostitute. Cohen was also accused by his ex-wife of physical abuse and using illegally obtained anabolic steroids. [17] Quinn and Dick Durbin, Illinois's senior U.S. Senator, both said that Cohen should withdraw his candidacy, [18] [19] which he did on February 7. [20] Cohen ran as an independent candidate for the office of governor against Quinn. [14]

On March 27, 2010, the Democratic State Central Committee chose a replacement candidate, Sheila Simon. [21] [22] Dan Hynes, who placed second in the gubernatorial primary, denied interest in replacing Cohen on the ticket. [22] Other names suggested included State Representative Art Turner, who placed second to Cohen in the Democratic primary and then finished second to Simon in committee balloting on March 27, 2010; State Senators Rickey Hendon and Terry Link, State Representative Mike Boland, and electrician Thomas Castillo, all of whom also ran in the primary; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs official Tammy Duckworth; and State Representative Julie Hamos were suggested as possible replacements. [22] Jeff Melvin, a 21-year retired army veteran, also applied to the open nominating call for the Democratic lieutenant governor position. [23]

At one point during the campaign, Quinn, struggling to make up ground amidst poor polling numbers against Brady, accused his Republican opponent of supporting a bill to kill puppies. In fact, the bill regulated shelters' practices when they euthanize animals. [24] Quinn struggled to shake off Blagojevich's scandals, leading to poor approval ratings throughout the campaign, despite Quinn denouncing Blagojevich. [25] Quinn trailed Brady by more than 10 points at times, despite Illinois being a deeply Democratic state.

A central issue in the campaign was the state income tax. Quinn advocated for a one percentage point – or 33 percent – increase in the state's income tax to primarily fund education, while Brady called for a 10 percent across the board cut in state government and placing the State Board of Education under the governor's control. [26]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [27] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [28] Tilt R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [29] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [30] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [31] Lean DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Pat
Quinn (D)		Bill
Brady (R)		Rich
Whitney (G)		OtherUnde-
cided
Fox News ()October 23, 20101,000± 3.0%39%44%4%7%6%
Chicago Tribune ()October 18–22, 2010700± 3.7%39%43%4%7%6%
Rasmussen Reports ()October 20, 2010750± 4.0%37%45%2%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 12, 2010750± 4.5%40%46%2%9%3%
Southern Illinois University ()September 30 – October 10, 2010—± 3.5%29.8%38.4%2.2%5.9%-
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 4, 2010500± 4.5%38%46%4%5%8%
Suffolk University (report [ permanent dead link ])September 30 – October 3, 2010500±4.4%43%37%3%8%8%
(Public Policy Polling)September 30, 2010470±4.5%35%42%4%8%11%
Chicago Tribune (report)September 24–28, 2010600±4%39%38%3%8%12%
CNN/TIME (report)September 24–28, 20101,504±2.5%38%40%4%16%2%
We Ask America ()September 13, 20101,050±2.70%32%42%4%–16%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 12, 2010750±4.0%37%50%4%7%3%
Chicago Tribune (report)Aug. 28 – Sept. 1, 2010600±4.0%32%37%2%–19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 23, 2010750±4.0%37%46%–6%11%
Public Policy Polling (report)August 14–15, 2010576±4.1%30%39%11%–6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 9, 2010750±4.0%35%48%–6%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 27, 2010750±4.0%37%44%–11%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 7, 2010500±4.5%40%43%–9%8%
Public Policy Polling (report)June 12–13, 2010552±4.2%30%34%9%–27%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 7, 2010500±4.5%36%47%–8%10%
Research 2000 (report)May 3–5, 2010600±4.0%36%39%––25%
We Ask America ()May 2, 20101,050±3.02%31.15%46.25%4.81%–17.79%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 28, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%–5%11%
Rasmussen Reports ()April 8, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%–7%10%
Public Policy Polling (report)April 5, 2010591± 4.0%33%43%––24%
We Ask America ( Archived January 26, 2016, at the Wayback Machine )March 10, 20107983.5%31.58%44.61%3.51%–20.30%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 8, 2010500± 4.5%37%47%–6%9%
Research 2000 (report)February 22 –24, 2010600± 4.0%47%32%–1%20%
The Illinois Poll ()February 7, 20101,200± 2.8%42%31%–4%23%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 14, 2009500± 4.5%45%30%–13%13%

Results

Even though Brady won 98 out of the 102 counties, Quinn narrowly prevailed. Brady won almost everywhere in the state, including all of the collar counties of the Chicago suburbs. Quinn initially had a large lead when results first began to come in, as heavily populated areas tend to report their votes faster. However, once the more suburban and rural areas came in Brady narrowed the gap significantly. Quinn's huge win in Cook County proved too much for Brady to overcome, however. Brady conceded defeat later the following day on November 3, when it became clear he would lose. Quinn's win was ranked by Politico as the 7th biggest upset of the 2010 elections.

2010 Illinois gubernatorial election [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Pat Quinn (incumbent)/Sheila Simon 1,745,219 46.79% −3.00%
Republican Bill Brady/Jason Plummer 1,713,38545.94%+6.68%
Independent Scott Lee Cohen135,7053.64%n/a
Green Rich Whitney/Donald Crawford100,7562.70%−7.66%
Libertarian Lex Green34,6810.93%n/a
Total votes3,729,746 100.00% n/a
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Sweet, Lynn (February 24, 2009). "Gov. Pat Quinn to run in 2010. 'I think I am doing a good job today'". Chicago Sun-Times . Chicago. Archived from the original on April 1, 2009. Retrieved May 29, 2009. 'I have no reason not to run,' Quinn told me when I asked him about the 2010 election
  2. ↑ Long, Ray (February 4, 2010). "Hynes concedes Dem governor race to Quinn". Chicago Tribune . Chicago. Retrieved February 4, 2010.
  3. ↑ "Ballots Cast". Elections.il.gov. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  4. ↑ fr:Résultats des élections des gouverneurs dans l'Illinois
  5. 1 2 "Voter Turnout". www.elections.il.gov. Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on May 30, 2021. Retrieved March 24, 2020.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 "Election Results". www.elections.il.gov. Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on February 22, 2020. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
  7. ↑ "Scott Lee Cohen bows out of Illinois lieutenant governor race". Christian Science Monitor. February 8, 2010. ISSN   0882-7729 . Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  8. ↑ VIDEO: Democrats running for governor debate, ABC7 Chicago, January 19, 2010
  9. ↑ Public media to air gubernatorial debates in January The News-Gazette, December 30, 2009 Archived January 4, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  10. ↑ "Illinois Public Media, WSIU Host Gubernatorial Debate". WILL Press Room (Press release). Urbana, Illinois: University of Illinois. January 12, 2010. Retrieved November 8, 2010.
  11. ↑ WSIU Prepares Voters For February 2nd Primary Election Archived 2011-10-07 at the Wayback Machine , WSIU
  12. 1 2 3 "Ballots Cast". Elections.illinois.gov. Archived from the original on August 14, 2014. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  13. ↑ "Scott Lee Cohen: The Exit Interview". Chicago Magazine. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  14. 1 2 3 "Official: Scott Lee Cohen to run for governor". Archived from the original on April 27, 2010. Retrieved April 24, 2010.
  15. ↑ State Journal-Register via Associated Press (November 7, 2008). "Bill Brady says he will run for Governor". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  16. ↑ "Lex Green for Governor of Illinois in 2010". Electlex.com. Archived from the original on February 9, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  17. ↑ Secter, Bob; Heinzmann, David; Kidwell, David (February 7, 2010). "Behind the man who could be lieutenant governor". Chicago Tribune . Archived from the original on February 8, 2010. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  18. ↑ Pallasch, Abdon M.; McKinney, Dave (February 4, 2010). "Lt. gov. nominee: I won't drop out of race over abuse history". Chicago Sun-Times. Archived from the original on February 7, 2010. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  19. ↑ Esposito, Stefano; Sweet, Lynn; Hussain, Rummana; Konkol, Mark J. (February 6, 2010). "Source: Cohen seeking 'honorable way' to drop out". Chicago Sun-Times . Archived from the original on February 8, 2010. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  20. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (February 7, 2010). "Illinois lieutenant governor nominee Scott Lee Cohen withdraws". The Politico . Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Clout St: Democrats pick Simon as Quinn's running mate". Newsblogs.chicagotribune.com. March 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  22. 1 2 3 "Hynes not interested in Illinois". Blogs.suntimes.com. Archived from the original on September 20, 2013. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
  23. ↑ [ dead link ]
  24. ↑ "PolitiFact - Pat Quinn blasts Bill Brady for sponsoring bill on pet euthanasia in Illinois gubernatorial race". @politifact. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  25. ↑ "The Blagojevich Legacy: He Presided Over a Long Slide Into Fiscal Catastrophe". NPR Illinois. October 1, 2010. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  26. ↑ MASSINGALE, MARY. "Illinois candidates make final push". Galesburg Register Mail. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  27. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  28. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  29. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  30. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  31. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  32. ↑ "General Election of November 2, 2010" (PDF). Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
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