2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii

2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii

←  2004 November 2, 2010 2014 (special)  →

Nominee Daniel Inouye Campbell Cavasso Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 277,228 79,939 Percentage 74.81% 21.57%

County results Inouye:     70–80%

U.S. senator before election Daniel Inouye Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Daniel Inouye Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on September 18, 2010. ^[1] Incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye, also the President pro tempore, secured the Democratic nomination with over 88 percent of the vote over his sole challenger, businessman Andy Woerner, while former state legislator (and Inouye's 2004 opponent) Campbell Cavasso won the Republican nomination with two-thirds of the primary vote.

Focuses of the campaign included Inouye's seniority and ability to direct federal resources to the state, as well as Cavasso's emphases on change and fiscal responsibility. Polling found Inouye with a large lead, although one poll gave the Democrat a lead of only thirteen points, greatly underestimating his share of the vote. Inouye won re-election to his ninth and final term, with nearly 75 percent of the vote to Cavasso's 21.6 percent. The Senator would not serve out his ninth term, as he died in December 2012 and was replaced by appointed then-Lieutenant governor Brian Schatz.

Background

Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its current delegation to the United States Congress currently consists entirely of Democrats. Democrats have also won Hawaii's electoral votes in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan's landslide election in 1984. The exceptions at the time were then-Governor Linda Lingle (who was serving her second and final term) and then-U.S. Representative Charles Djou, both of whom are Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Daniel Inouye, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Andy Woerner, businessman

Results

Democratic primary results ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Daniel Inouye (incumbent)	188,400	88.3%
	Democratic	Andy Woerner	25,016	11.7%
Total votes			213,416	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

• Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative, candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004
• Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and U.S. Senate candidate in the 2006 primary
• John Roco

Results

Results by county:

  Cavasso—70–80%

  Cavasso—60–70%

  Cavasso—50–60%

Republican primary results ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Campbell Cavasso	21,865	66.7%
	Republican	John Roco	7,190	21.9%
	Republican	Eddie Pirkowski	3,744	11.4%
Total votes			32,790	100.0%

General election

Candidates

• Democratic: Daniel Inouye
• Republican: Campbell Cavasso
• Green: Jim Brewer
• Libertarian: Lloyd Mallan
• Independent: Jeff Jarrett

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [3]	Solid D	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg [4]	Safe D	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics [5]	Safe D	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [6]	Safe D	October 21, 2010
CQ Politics [7]	Safe D	October 26, 2010

Campaign

The death of longtime U.S. Senator Robert Byrd allowed Inouye to become the President pro tempore and Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations. He made no apologies for bringing home as much federal money as he could, despite Republican insistence that the U.S. government taxed and spent too much, a stance he called a "nice gimmick". The Maui News endorsed his reelection. ^[8]

Cavasso, the 2004 nominee, won the Republican primary again, and ran on a platform of change, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget. ^[9] Inouye, who defeated Cavasso in 2004 by 52 percentage points, released TV ads that referred to himself simply as "Dan". The senator was said to be "working" for Hawaii's transportation, high-tech economy, education and other needs. ^[10]

Polling

A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters conducted on October 13 gave Inouye only a thirteen-point lead over Cavasso, and found the Republican with a modest lead among independent voters. ^{[11] [12]} However, the poll would ultimately miss the final margin by forty percentage points. ^[13] Fivethirtyeight 's Nate Silver awarded the Rasmussen poll his "worst poll award", citing it as evidence of the pollster's bias against Democratic candidates and observing that it was, as of November 2010, the largest error of any electoral poll in the Fivethirtyeight databases going back to 1998. ^{[14] [13]}

Hypothetical polling numbers with John Roco (R)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Daniel Inouye (D)	John Roco (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports [15]	June 24, 2010	500	± 4.5%	68%	20%	3%	8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Daniel Inouye (D)	Cam Cavasso (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports [16]	October 13, 2010	500	± 4.5%	53%	40%	3%	4%
Public Policy Polling [17]	October 2–3, 2010	1326	± 2.7%	65%	29%	—	6%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Daniel Inouye (D)	$3,503,323	$3,814,829	$1,506,305	$0
Campbell Cavasso (R)	$252,711	$238,794	$14,385	$126,179
Source: Federal Election Commission [18]

Results

United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2010 ^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Daniel Inouye (incumbent)	277,228	74.81%	−0.70%
	Republican	Campbell Cavasso	79,939	21.57%	+0.58%
	Green	Jim Brewer	7,762	2.09%	N/A
	Libertarian	Lloyd Jeffrey Mallen	2,957	0.80%	−0.47%
	Independent	Jeff Jarrett	2,697	0.73%	N/A
Total votes			370,583	100.00%
	Democratic hold

References

1. "Official Election Results for United States Senate" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. 2010. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 23, 2022.
2. "Hawaii Senate Primary Results". Politico. September 18, 2010. Retrieved September 19, 2010.
3. "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
4. "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
5. "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
6. "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
7. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
8. "News Clippings". Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved October 30, 2010.
9. "Cavasso Files For US Senate Run | Cam Cavasso | Hawaii Senate Race 2010". Archived from the original on October 8, 2010. Retrieved October 30, 2010.
10. Cavasso undeterred by odds in campaign against Inouye - Hawaii News - Staradvertiser.com
11. "Questions - Hawaii Senate - October 13, 2010". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
12. Rasmussen, Scott (October 17, 2010). "Election 2010: Hawaii Senate". Rasmussen Reports. Archived from the original on November 5, 2010. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
13. Silver, Nate (November 4, 2010). "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
14. Silver, Nate (November 2, 2010). "Live Blogging the Election Returns". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
15. Rasmussen Reports
16. Rasmussen Reports
17. Public Policy Polling
18. "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii". fec.gov. Retrieved July 27, 2010.^{[ permanent dead link ‍]}
19. "2010 GENERAL ELECTION - State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections.

External links

• Hawaii Office of Elections
• U.S. Congress candidates for Hawaii at Project Vote Smart
• Hawaii U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
• 2010 Hawaii Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Hawaii Senate from Rasmussen Reports
• Hawaii Senate from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Hawaii Senate Race from CQ Politics
• Race profile from The New York Times

Official campaign websites

• Campbell Cavasso for U.S. Senate
• Daniel Inouye U.S. Senator
• Jeff Jarrett for Hawaii, US Senate ^{[ permanent dead link ‍]}
• Lloyd Mallan for U.S. Senate Archived January 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
• Eddie Pirkowski for U.S. Senate ^{[ permanent dead link ‍]}
• John Roco for U.S. Senator
• Andy Woerner for U.S. Senate