2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Flag of Hawaii.svg
  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  
Turnout44.2% (voting eligible) [1]
  Mazie Hirono, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Linda Lingle in March 2010.jpg
Nominee Mazie Hirono Linda Lingle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote269,489160,994
Percentage62.60%37.40%

2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii results map by county.svg
County results
Hirono:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Daniel Akaka
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mazie Hirono
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Daniel Akaka decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth full term. Democrat Mazie Hirono defeated Republican Linda Lingle in a rematch of Hawaii’s 2002 gubernatorial election. This was the first open Senate seat in the state of Hawaii since 1976.

Contents

Background

U.S. Representative Daniel Akaka was appointed by Governor John Waihee to the U.S. Senate to serve temporarily after the death of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, and sworn into office on May 16, 1990. On November 6 of the same year, he was elected to complete the remaining four years of Matsunaga's unexpired term. He was re-elected in 1994 for a first full six-year term and again in 2000 and 2006. Despite originally saying he would seek re-election in 2012, [2] on March 2, 2011, Akaka announced that he would not run for re-election. [3]

Democratic primary

The primary election was held on August 11. [4] After being locked in a tight race with Ed Case, her predecessor in Congress, incumbent Congresswoman Mazie Hirono pulled away in the final vote, handily defeating Case.

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

In December 2011, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman and U.S. Senator Patty Murray for Washington endorsed Hirono. [12] U.S. Senator and President Pro Tempore Daniel Inouye for Hawaii also endorsed her. Case criticized "D.C. insiders." He also argued that he is a fiscal moderate, while Hirono was rated the 6th most liberal member of the U.S. House. [13] [14] The Daily Kos blog described Ed Case a "Democratic villain." [15]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case
Mazie
Hirono
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011368±5.1%40%45%15%
Civil Beat Poll January 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%41%39%20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser January 26 – February 5, 2012599±4.0%36%56%8%
Civil Beat Poll June 5–7, 2012731±3.6%46%46%8%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser July 5–9, 2012599±4.0%40%43%9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser July 12–21, 2012606±4.0%37%55%8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River July 31 – August 2, 20121,227±2.8%47%46%9%

Results

Results by county:
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Hirono--60-70%
Hirono--50-60% 2012 HI US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Hirono—60–70%
  Hirono—50–60%
Democratic primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mazie Hirono 134,745 57%
Democratic Ed Case 95,55340%
Blank Votes3,3311%
Democratic Arturo Reyes1,7201%
Democratic Michael Gillespie1,1041%
Democratic Antonio Gimbernat5170.2%
Over Votes1100%
Total votes237,080 100%

Republican primary

The primary election was held on August 11.

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Carroll
Linda
Lingle
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011293±5.7%9%85%6%

Results

Republican primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Linda Lingle 44,252 90%
Republican John Carroll 2,9006%
Blank Votes7492%
Republican John Roco5451%
Republican Charles Collins3661%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski2320.5%
Over Votes250.1%
Total votes49,069 100%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Mazie Hirono (D)$5,518,572$5,657,753$77,323$241,951
Linda Lingle (R)$5,865,323$5,839,282$26,042$194,534
Source: Federal Election Commission [29] [30]

Top contributors

Mazie HironoContributionLinda LingleContribution
EMILY's List $215,640 Goldman Sachs $39,900
University of Hawaii $29,900 Elliott Management Corporation $39,500
Kobayashi, Sugita & Goda$24,618 Humanscale Corporation $34,000
Alexander & Baldwin $23,100 Bank of America $21,240
RM Towill Corp$23,000Richie's Specialty Pharmacy$20,000
Weitz & Luxenberg$22,400 Marriott International $19,500
Council for a Livable World $20,914Murray Energy$19,205
Nan, Inc.$20,000State of Hawaii$18,350
Thornton & Naumes$20,000 Devon Energy $15,500
BNP Paribas $17,250Crown Associates Realty$15,000
Source: OpenSecrets [31]

Top industries

Mazie HironoContributionLinda LingleContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $524,619Retired$640,433
Women's Issues$336,772 Financial Institutions $368,837
Retired$194,307 Leadership PACs $291,500
Leadership PACs$186,500 Real Estate $249,216
Real Estate$123,598 Pro-Israel $185,500
Transportation Unions$110,400 Health Professionals $154,550
Lobbyists $109,344 Petroleum Industry $137,950
Public Sector Unions$108,000Misc Finance$137,500
Democratic/Liberal$85,788Lawyers/Law Firms$135,086
Shipping Industry $85,385Republican/Conservative$101,664
Source: OpenSecrets [32]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [33] Lean DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [35] Likely DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [36] Likely DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%52%40%9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011614±4.0%57%35%8%
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011568±4.1%48%42%10%
Civil Beat/Merriman River January 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%46%39%16%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser January 26 – February 5, 2012771±3.5%57%37%5%
Public Policy Polling May 16–17, 2012600±4.0%50%41%9%
Civil Beat/Merriman River June 5–7, 20121,105±2.9%49%44%5%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser July 12–21, 2012756±3.6%58%39%4%
Civil Beat/Merriman River September 26–28, 20121,684±2.4%55%39%6%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser October 15–22, 2012786±3.5%57%35%8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River October 24–26, 20121,218±2.8%55%40%5%
Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case
Colleen
Hanabusa
Mufi
Hannemann
Mazie
Hirono
Brian
Schatz
Don't Know/
Refused
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011403±4.9%26%15%17%25%6%11%
with Duke Aiona
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%50%35%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%49%42%10%
with Colleen Hanabusa
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%48%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%50%40%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%51%40%9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011614±4.0%54%39%7%
with Charles Djou
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%53%35%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%51%40%9%
With Mufi Hannemann
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%46%40%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%42%42%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%47%40%14%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011614±4.0%51%36%13%
with Brian Schatz
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schatz (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011614±4.0%47%43%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011568±4.1%60%21%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011898±3.3%52%35%12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser May 4–10, 2011614±4.0%54%36%10%
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011568±4.1%43%45%12%
Civil Beat/Merriman River January 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%46%33%20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser January 26 – February 5, 2012771±3.5%56%36%8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River June 5–7, 20121,105±2.9%52%36%12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser July 12–21, 2012756±3.6%56%38%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011568±4.1%56%29%15%

Endorsements

Mazie Hirono (D)
U.S. Representatives

Results

United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2012 [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Mazie Hirono 269,489 62.60% +1.25%
Republican Linda Lingle 160,99437.40%+0.62%
Total votes430,483 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by congressional district

Hirono won both congressional districts. [39]

DistrictHironoLingleRepresentative
1st 59.94%40.06% Colleen Hanabusa
2nd 65.24%34.76% Tulsi Gabbard

See also

Related Research Articles

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Linda Lingle is an American politician, who was the sixth governor of Hawaii from 2002 to 2010. She was the first Republican elected governor of Hawaii since 1959, and was the state's first female and first Jewish governor. Prior to serving as governor, Lingle served as mayor of Maui County from 1991 to 1999 and as chair of the Hawaii Republican Party from 1999 to 2002.

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