2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

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2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Flag of North Dakota.svg
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Turnout60.6% (voting eligible) [1]
  Heidi Heitkamp official portrait.jpg Rick Berg, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Heidi Heitkamp Rick Berg
Party Democratic–NPL Republican
Popular vote161,337158,401
Percentage50.24%49.32%
2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota by State Senate District.svg
Heitkamp:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     80–90%
Berg:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kent Conrad
Democratic–NPL

Elected U.S. Senator

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL

The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.

Contents

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012. [2]

Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%. [3] Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election. [4] Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections.

As of 2024, this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota. This is the last time that a Senate candidate was voted for and was elected to the United States Senate in North Dakota at the same time that a presidential candidate of a different political party was voted for in and had won North Dakota.

Democratic-NPL primary

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot. [5]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND [7] (dropped out February 2012) [8]

Declined

Republican primary

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot. [19]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Rick Berg
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Rick
Berg		Duane
Sand		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [36] June 4–6, 2012625± 4.0%73%16%11%
Essman Research [37] May 3–8, 2012500± 4.3%65%21%14%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Berg--80-90% Berg--70-80% Berg--60-70% Berg--50-60% North Dakota U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  Berg—80–90%
  Berg—70–80%
  Berg—60–70%
  Berg—50–60%
Republican primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Berg 67,849 66.41%
Republican Duane Sand 34,20933.48%
Republican Write-ins111.41%
Total votes102,281 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Heidi Heitkamp (D)$5,341,362$5,318,232$23,130$0
Rick Berg (R)$6,501,693$6,129,026$316,641$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [40] [41]

Top contributors

[42]

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Motley Rice LLC $41,750 Verizon Communications $43,666
Council for a Livable World $26,705 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg $22,400 NORPAC $26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $15,050Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems $12,000Rurban Financial$22,700
American Association for Justice $10,833 Hess Corp $22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $10,750 NACCO Industries $22,000
American Federation of Teachers $10,300 Marathon Oil $21,000
Patton Boggs LLP $10,250 Berkshire Hathaway $20,500
American Postal Workers Union $10,000 Koch Industries $20,000

Top industries

[43]

Heidi HeitkampContributionRick BergContribution
Lawyers/law firms $433,811 Oil & gas $433,949
Leadership PACs $284,500Leadership PACs$277,163
Women's issues $111,593 Financial institutions $274,941
Lobbyists $103,635Retired$218,909
Retired$100,812 Real estate $171,686
Agribusiness $78,450Agribusiness$163,583
Public sector unions$73,800 Insurance $140,011
Financial institutions$64,713 Commercial banks $127,140
Education$60,960 Health professionals $114,438
Building trade unions$52,500 Mining $106,804

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections. [44]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [45] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Inside Elections [46] Tilt R (flip)November 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics [48] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Heidi
Heitkamp (D)		Rick
Berg (R)		OtherUndecided
Pharos Research November 2–5, 2012503± 4.1%47%49%—4%
Pharos Research [49] October 26–28, 2012752± 3.6%50%48%—2%
Mason-Dixon October 26–28, 2012625± 4.0%45%47%—8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) October 21–24, 2012600± 4.0%48%44%—7%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012807± 3.4%49%48%—3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) October 16–19, 2012600± 4.0%45%42%—13%
Rasmussen Reports October 17–18, 2012600± 4.0%45%50%—5%
Essman Research October 12–15, 2012500± 4.4%40%50%—10%
Mason-Dixon October 3–5, 2012625± 4.0%47%47%—6%
DFM Research (D) September 24–27, 2012600± 4.0%48%44%—8%
DFM Research (D) July 24–26, 2012400± 4.9%50%44%—6%
Rasmussen Reports July 10–11, 2012400± 5.0%40%49%2%8%
Mason-Dixon [36] June 4–6, 2012625± 4.0%47%46%—7%
Essman Research [37] May 3–8, 2012500± 4.3%44%51%—5%
DFM Research (D) April 18–26, 2012478± 4.5%49%44%1%6%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2012 [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp 161,337 50.24% -18.58%
Republican Rick Berg 158,40149.32%+19.79%
Write-in 1,4060.44%N/A
Total votes321,144 100.00% N/A
Democratic–NPL hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ↑ "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
  3. ↑ Kate Nocera (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 21, 2019.
  5. ↑ "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". Newsday . Associated Press. March 17, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
  6. 1 2 Daum, Kristen M (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2011.
  7. ↑ Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  8. ↑ Smith, Nick (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". The Bismarck Tribune . Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  9. ↑ Haga, Chuck (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". Grand Forks Herald . Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  10. ↑ Miller, Joshua (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". Roll Call . Archived from the original on November 16, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  11. 1 2 "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". Grand Forks Herald . August 1, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.[ permanent dead link ](subscription required)
  12. ↑ Catanese, David (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". Politico . Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  13. ↑ Miller, Tricia (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". Roll Call . Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune . Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  15. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call . Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  16. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". National Journal . Archived from the original on April 6, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
  17. ↑ Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun . Retrieved January 19, 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  18. ↑ "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald . December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.[ permanent dead link ](subscription required)
  19. ↑ Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead . Retrieved March 29, 2012.[ permanent dead link ]
  20. 1 2 Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  21. 1 2 Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call . Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  22. ↑ "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race" (Press release). Standard Newswire. August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  23. ↑ Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call . Archived from the original on January 6, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  24. 1 2 Catanese, David (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". Politico . Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  25. 1 2 Smith, Nick (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". Williston Herald . Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  26. ↑ Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 18, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  27. ↑ Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
  28. ↑ Beitsch, Rebecca (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". Bismarck Tribune . Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  29. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call . Retrieved May 20, 2011.
  30. ↑ Daum, Kristen M (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
  31. ↑ Miller, Tricia (December 27, 2010). "North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat". Roll Call . Archived from the original on December 30, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  32. ↑ Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead . Retrieved February 25, 2012.[ permanent dead link ]
  33. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". Roll Call . Archived from the original on April 29, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  34. ↑ Bunk, Matt (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". Great Plains Examiner . Archived from the original on June 13, 2011. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  35. ↑ "ND House candidates attract dueling endorsements for pro-gun groups". Grand Forks Herald. Fargo. October 13, 2012. Archived from the original on August 2, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  36. 1 2 "Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll". Valley News Live . Gray Television. June 7, 2012. Archived from the original on June 7, 2012.
  37. 1 2 Daum, Kristen (May 17, 2012). "Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead . Forum Communications. Archived from the original on May 23, 2012.
  38. ↑ "North Dakota Secretary of State".
  39. ↑ "Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race". WDAY-TV . Forum Communications Company. September 6, 2012. Archived from the original on September 10, 2012.
  40. ↑ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  41. ↑ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  42. ↑ "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race". OpenSecrets . Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  43. ↑ "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries". OpenSecrets . Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  44. ↑ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  45. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  46. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  47. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  48. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  49. ↑ "North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12" (PDF). Pharos Research Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 20, 2014.
  50. ↑ "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
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