2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
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  Elizabeth Warren--Official 113th Congressional Portrait-- (cropped).jpg Sbrownofficial.jpg
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Scott Brown
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,696,3461,458,048
Percentage53.74%46.19%
2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate Election in Massachusetts by Municipality.svg
2012 US Senate election in Massachusetts by congressional district.svg
MA Senate 2012.svg
Warren:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Brown:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Scott Brown
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held in Massachusetts on November 6, 2012, Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Republican Senator Scott Brown. This election was held concurrently with the U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. Senate in other states, as well as elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Brown ran for re-election to a first full term. He had been elected in a special election in 2010 following the death of incumbent Democratic senator Ted Kennedy. Brown was unopposed in the Republican primary. For the Democrats, an initial wide field of prospective candidates narrowed after the entry of Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, the architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren clinched near-unanimous party support, with all but one of the other Democratic candidates withdrawing following her entrance. After winning her party's nomination, she faced Brown in the general election.

The election was one of the most-followed races in 2012 and cost approximately $82 million, which made it the most expensive election in Massachusetts history and the second-most expensive in the entire 2012 election cycle, next to the presidential race; this was despite the two candidates' having agreed not to allow outside money to influence the race. Opinion polling indicated a close race for much of the campaign, though Warren opened up a small but consistent lead in the final few weeks. She went on to defeat Brown by over 236,000 votes, 54% to 46%. Despite his loss, Brown received 8.6% more of the state vote than Republican former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney did in the concurrent presidential election. Brown was the only incumbent senator to lose a general election in 2012. He later moved to New Hampshire where he ran for U.S. Senate and lost in 2014.

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006, and died on August 25, 2009, from a malignant brain tumor. [1] On September 24, 2009, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed longtime friend of Kennedy and former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul G. Kirk to succeed Kennedy until a special election could be held. [2] Kirk's appointment was especially controversial, as the governor's ability to appoint an interim senator was removed during the Romney administration by the Democratic-controlled legislature, as a precaution if senator and presidential nominee John Kerry was elected president in 2004. Laws surrounding Senate appointment were quickly changed following Kennedy's death. [3] The Massachusetts Republican Party sued in an attempt to halt Kirk's appointment, but it was rejected by Suffolk Superior Court Judge Thomas Connolly. [4]

In the special election held on January 19, 2010, Republican state senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic state attorney general Martha Coakley in an upset victory. [5] Brown thus became the first Republican to be elected from Massachusetts to the United States Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972, and he began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010. [6] [7]

Republican primary

The National Republican Trust PAC, a group integral to Brown's 2010 election, vowed to draft a conservative opponent, citing dissatisfaction with his vote in support of the New START nuclear arms treaty. [8] However, Brown went unopposed in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown		More conservative
challenger		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [10] September 16–18, 2011255±6.1%70%21%—9%

Results

Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent) 133,860 99.46
Republican Write-ins7330.54
Total votes134,593 100.00

Democratic primary

The Massachusetts Democratic Convention was held on June 2, 2012, where Warren received 95.77% of delegate votes. [12] As the only candidate with 15% of delegate votes necessary to qualify for the primary ballot, Warren eliminated her challenger Marisa DeFranco, becoming the de facto nominee. The Democratic primary was held on September 6, 2012, with Warren running unopposed. [13]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Conroy		Marisa
DeFranco		Jim
King		Alan
Khazei		Bob
Massie		Herb
Robinson		Elizabeth
Warren		Setti
Warren		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [34] September 16–18, 2011461±4.6%7%2%—9%2%1%55%1%—22%
UMass Lowell [35] September 22–28, 20111,005±3.8%5%4%—3%3%1%36%3%1%32%
YouGov for UMass Amherst [36] November 9–22, 2011122±4.6%7%6%———2%73%—13%—
Suffolk University/7NEWS [37] February 11–15, 2012218±?%—5%1%———72%——20%
Suffolk University/7NEWS [38] May 20–22, 2012284±?%—6%————71%——12%

Results

Democratic convention vote [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 3,352 95.77
Democratic Marisa DeFranco1484.23
Total votes3,500 100.00
Democratic primary vote [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 308,979 97.59
Democratic Write-ins7,6382.41
Total votes316,617 100.00

General election

Campaign

On September 14, 2011, Warren declared her intention to run for the Democratic nomination for the 2012 election in Massachusetts for the United States Senate. The seat had been won by Republican Scott Brown in a 2010 special election after the death of Ted Kennedy. [40] [41]

Warren won the Democratic nomination on June 2, 2012, at the state Democratic convention with a record 95.77% of the votes of delegates. [12] She was endorsed by the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick. [42] Warren and her opponent Scott Brown agreed to engage in four televised debates, including one with a consortium of media outlets in Springfield and one on WBZ-TV in Boston. [43]

Brown campaigning in his truck Senator Scott Brown 2010.jpg
Brown campaigning in his truck

Brown ran as a moderate, stressing his ability to cross party lines and highlighting his votes for the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and to repeal "don't ask, don't tell". [44] Warren campaigned on a platform championing the middle class, and supporting Wall Street regulation. Warren criticized Brown for continually voting with Republican leadership, and argued that he was not the bipartisan moderate he claimed to be. [45] [46] A staple of Brown's attack tactics against Warren was his consistent reference to her as "Professor Warren", in attempt to portray her as an elitist academic. [47] Brown faced blowback after the second debate, during which he claimed conservative Antonin Scalia was a "model" Supreme Court Justice, prompting boos from the debate audience. [48]

Warren spoke at the 2012 Democratic National Convention immediately before Bill Clinton on the penultimate night of the convention. Warren contrasted President Obama's economic plan with Mitt Romney's in the 2012 election and rebuked the Republican Party's economic policy stating: "Their vision is clear: 'I've got mine, and the rest of you are on your own.'" Warren positioned herself as a champion of a beleaguered middle class that, as she said, "has been chipped, squeezed and hammered." [49] [50] [51] According to Warren, "People feel like the system is rigged against them. And here's the painful part: They're right. The system is rigged." Warren said that Wall Street CEOs "wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs" and that they "still strut around congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them." [52] [53] [54] Brown attended the 2012 Republican National Convention, but was not a speaker there. According to Brown, he had rejected an offer to play a larger role, and limited his attendance to a single day because of scheduling demands. [55] [56]

Following Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments, Brown was the first sitting senator to demand he drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race. [57] He also called on his party to "recognize in its platform that you can be pro-choice and still be a good Republican." [57] Brown's campaign had been endorsed by many Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom were prominently featured in his campaign ads. [58]

Warren campaigning with retiring Congressman Barney Frank (right) and his eventual successor, Joe Kennedy III (left) Joe Kennedy III, Elizabeth Warren, Barney Frank.jpg
Warren campaigning with retiring Congressman Barney Frank (right) and his eventual successor, Joe Kennedy III (left)

In September 2011, a video of Warren explaining her approach to economic policy gained popularity on the internet. [59] In the video, Warren rebuts the charge that asking the rich to pay more taxes is "class warfare", pointing out that no one grew rich in America without depending on infrastructure paid for by the rest of society, stating: [60] [61]

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody.  ... You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did. Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

On July 13, 2012, President Obama sparked a controversy when he echoed her thoughts [62] [63] in a campaign speech saying, "Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business—you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen." [64] [65]

Warren at a campaign event, November 2012 Elizabeth Warren Nov 2 2012.jpg
Warren at a campaign event, November 2012

Warren encountered significant opposition from business interests. In August 2012, Rob Engstrom, political director for the United States Chamber of Commerce, claimed that "no other candidate in 2012 represents a greater threat to free enterprise than Professor Warren." [66] She nonetheless raised $39 million for her campaign, the most of any Senate candidate in 2012. [67]

Results by municipality 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts results map by municipality.svg
Results by municipality

Native American ancestry controversy

In April 2012, the Boston Herald sparked an election controversy when it drew attention to Warren's Association of American Law Schools (AALS) directory entries from 1986 to 1995, which listed her as a minority professor. [68] According to the AALS, the directory was compiled by information supplied by law school deans, based on questionnaires filled out by individual teachers. [69] Warren stated that she had self-identified as having Native American ancestry in order to meet others with a similar background. [70] Harvard Law School had listed her as a minority professor in response to criticisms about a lack of faculty diversity, but Warren said that she was unaware of this until she read about it in a newspaper during the 2012 election. [68] [69] [71]

Her opponent Scott Brown speculated that she had fabricated a native ancestry to gain an advantage in the employment market; the Brown campaign used Warren's lineage in several attack ads. [72] [73] [74] In response, Warren's brothers issued a joint statement stating that they "grew up listening to our mother and grandmother and other relatives talk about our family's Cherokee and Delaware heritage". [75] [76] Brian Leiter of the Chicago Law School dismissed the allegations against Warren, noting that law schools have "no pressure to hire Native Americans for affirmative action reasons", and that Warren's record of scholarship was "clearly sufficient to get her appointed at Harvard". [77] Several Brown staffers mocked Warren by doing the "tomahawk chop" at a Brown campaign rally, which Brown said he did not condone. [78]

According to the New England Historical Genealogical Society, several members of Warren's maternal family claim Cherokee heritage; [79] the society found a family newsletter that alluded to a marriage license application that listed Elizabeth Warren's great-great-great-grandmother as a Cherokee, but could not find the primary document and found no proof of Warren's Native American heritage. [74] [80] Some members of the Cherokee Nation protested her claim to Native American ancestry and questioned whether she benefitted from it. [81] [82] Former colleagues and supervisors at the universities where she had worked (including Charles Fried, former Solicitor General under President Ronald Reagan) said Warren's ancestry was either not mentioned, or played no role in her hiring. [69] [71] [74] [83]

The question of Warren's ancestry was pressed by the Brown campaign throughout the election. However, polls showed that most voters said that the controversy would not impact their vote in the election. [84] Warren's 2014 autobiography devoted a section to the allegations, describing them as untrue and hurtful. [85] In 2018, Warren released the results of a DNA test that strongly suggests that she had a Native American ancestor six to ten generations ago, and suggests Warren is between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American. [86]

Endorsements

Scott Brown

Politicians

Labor unions

Military

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Rescinded

Elizabeth Warren

Politicians

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

Both candidates agreed to four televised debates, three of which were held. The candidates agreed to a fourth debate which was to be held on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio, hosted by a Boston media B consortium, and moderated by John King, but the day before both pulled out due to Hurricane Sandy. [217] [218] Victoria Kennedy, widow of Ted Kennedy, had proposed an additional debate with Tom Brokaw as moderator, but Brown would only accept the invitation if she pledged not to endorse Brown's opponent, which she refused. [219] [220]

Debate 1: September 20 at WBZ-TV studio, hosted by WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030. Moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller. [221] [222]

Debate 2: October 1 at UMass Lowell, co-hosted by UMass and The Boston Herald . Moderated by David Gregory. [223]

Debate 3: October 10 at Springfield Symphony Hall, hosted by a Western Massachusetts A consortium. Moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan. [224]

Fundraising

The election cost approximately $82 million, making it the most expensive election in Massachusetts' history and of any Congressional race in history up to that point, as well as the second-most expensive election in the 2012 election cycle, behind only the 2012 presidential election. [225] [226]

The People's Pledge

Both Warren and Brown stated early in the race that they would not accept television advertisement assistance from Super PACs and interest groups. On January 23, 2012, both candidates signed the agreement, or People's Pledge. While no outside groups were obligated by the agreement, both candidates agreed to donate a sum equal to 50% of an advertisement run by any groups to a charity of the other candidate's choice. [227] The pledge was broken twice, by Brown supporters. In March the American Petroleum Institute and Coalition of Americans for Political Equality launched ads supporting Brown, and as a result, the Brown campaign agreed to make donations of $1,000 and $34,545, respectively, to the charity of Warren's choice: the Autism Consortium. [228] [229]

Top donors

Contributions by affiliation C
Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott BrownElizabeth Warren
ContributorContributionContributorContribution
Fidelity Investments $289,455 EMILY's List $507,095
EMC Corporation $169,800 Moveon.org $448,517
Goldman Sachs $119,400 Harvard University $304,050
VoteSane PAC$113,250 MIT $77,200
State Street Corp $106,650 Boston University $73,700
MassMutual $106,198Brown Rudnick LLP$68,077
Raytheon $89,350 University of California $63,600
Liberty Mutual $85,500 League of Conservation Voters $54,551
JPMorgan Chase $80,855 Ropes & Gray $52,950
PricewaterhouseCoopers $79,800Thornton & Naumes$44,450

Contributions by industry
Source: OpenSecrets 2012

Scott BrownElizabeth Warren
IndustryContributionIndustryContribution
Retired$3,574,088Retired$3,374,569
Securities & Investment$3,370,618Lawyers/Law Firms$2,196,972
Lawyers/Law Firms$1,332,582Women's Issues$1,588,383
Real Estate$1,192,258Education$1,335,058
Insurance$914,504Democratic/Liberal$1,253,375
Health Professionals$877,878Securities & Investment$534,275
Misc Finance$828,501TV/Movies/Music$476,814
Business Services$661,647Health Professionals$456,006
Computer industry/Internet$637,825Business Services$455,291
Republican/Conservative$616,158Printing & Publishing$387,031

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [230] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [231] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [232] Tilt D (flip)November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [233] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
W. New England U. [234] March 6–10, 2011472 RV±4.5%51%34%—14%
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957 RV±3.2%47%32%—21%
WBUR MassInc [236] August 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%44%35%2%19%
Public Policy Polling [237] September 16–18, 2011957 RV±3.2%44%46%—10%
UMass Lowell [238] September 22–28, 20111,005 RV±3.8%41%38%3%14%
W. New England U. [239] September 29 – October 5, 2011475 RV±4.5%47%42%—10%
YouGov [240] for UMass Amherst November 9–22, 2011433 RV±4.4%39%43%4%14%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald [241] December 1–6, 2011505 RV±5.3%42%49%3%6%
Opinion Dynamics [242] for Mass InsightJanuary 31 – February 4, 2012456 RV±4.6%52%42%—6%
MassINC [243] for WBUR February 6–9, 2012505 LV±4.4%43%46%1%11%
Suffolk/WHDH [244] February 11–15, 2012600 LV±4%49%40%2%9%
Rasmussen Reports [245] February 29, 2012500 LV±4.5%49%44%2%5%
W. New England U. [246] February 23 – March 1, 2012527 RV±4.3%49%41%—10%
Public Policy Polling [247] March 16–18, 2012936 RV±3.2%41%46%—13%
Boston Globe [248] March 21–27, 2012544 LV±4.2%37%35%—26%
Rasmussen Reports [249] April 9, 2012500 LV±4.5%45%46%1%8%
MassINC [250] for MassLive April 25–28, 2012438 LV±4.7%41%43%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports [251] May 7, 2012500 LV±4.5%45%45%2%8%
Suffolk/WHDH [252] May 20–22, 2012600 LV±4%48%47%—5%
Boston Globe [253] May 25–31, 2012651 LV±3.8%39%37%2%23%
W. New England U. [254] May 29–31, 2012504 RV±4.4%43%45%—11%
Public Policy Polling [255] June 22–24, 2012902 RV±3.3%46%46%—8%
MassINC [256] July 19–22, 2012445 RV±4.4%38%40%—16%
Public Policy Polling [257] August 16–19, 20121,115 LV±4.4%49%44%—8%
Kimball Political Consulting [258] August 21, 20121,500 RV±4%49%43%—9%
Kimball Political Consulting [259] September 7–9, 2012756 LV±3.5%46%45%—9%
W. New England U. [260] September 6–13, 2012444 LV±4.6%44%50%—6%
Public Policy Polling [261] September 13–16, 2012876 LV±3.3%46%48%—6%
Suffolk/WHDH [262] September 13–16, 2012600 LV±4%44%48%—8%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald [263] September 13–17, 2012497 LV±4%49%45%1%4%
MassINC [264] for WBUR September 15–17, 2012507 LV±4.4%40%45%2%12%
Kimball Political Consulting [265] September 20, 2012868 LV±3.25%48%47%1%3%
UMass Lowell /Boston Herald [266] September 20, 2012524 RV±5.3%50%44%1%5%
Rasmussen Reports [267] September 24, 2012500 LV±4.5%48%48%—5%
Boston Globe [268] September 21–27, 2012502 LV±4.4%38%43%1%18%
WBUR [269] September 26–28, 2012504 LV±4.4%45%49%1%6%
Opinion Dynamics [270] for Mass InsightSeptember 25–30, 2012329 LV±5.4%44%48%—8%
W. New England U. [271] September 28 – October 4, 2012440 LV±4.3%45%50%—5%
MassINC [272] for WBUR October 5–7, 2012501 LV±4.4%48%45%1%8%
YouGov [273] for UMass Amherst October 2–8, 2012436 LV±5.4%45%48%—6%
Rasmussen Reports [274] October 10, 2012500 LV±4.5%47%49%—4%
YouGov [275] October 4–11, 2012669 LV±4.9%39%46%—15%
Public Policy Polling [276] October 9–11, 20121,051 LV±3%44%50%—6%
Public Policy Polling [277] for the LCV October 15–16, 2012709 LV±3.5%44%53%——
Kimball Political Consulting [278] October 18–21, 2012761 LV±3.5%45%48%—7%
MassINC [279] for WBUR October 21–22, 2012516 LV±4.4%44%50%1%4%
Rasmussen Reports [280] October 25, 2012500 LV±4.5%47%52%——
Boston Globe [281] October 24–28, 2012583 LV±4.1%47%47%—6%
Suffolk/WHDH [282] October 25–28, 2012600 LV±4%46%53%—1%
W. New England U. [283] October 26 – November 1, 2012535 LV±4%46%50%—4%
Public Policy Polling [284] November 1–2, 20121,089 LV±3%46%52%—2%
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald [285] October 31 – November 3, 2012800 LV±4.1%49%48%1%1%

* RV= Registered voters; LV= Likely voters

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Mike
Capuano (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [286] November 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%52%36%—12%
Western N.E. College [287] March 6–10, 2011472±4.5%51%38%—10%
7News/Suffolk University [288] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%52%26%1%21%
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%48%38%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Martha
Coakley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%49%40%—10%
UMass Lowell [289] September 22–28, 20111,005±3.8%41%40%4%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Tom
Conroy (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [237] September 16–18, 2011957±3.2%50%31%—18%
UMass Lowell [290] September 22–28, 2011499±5.4%46%25%5%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Marisa
DeFranco (D)		OtherUndecided
UMass Lowell [291] September 22–28, 2011499±5.4%48%22%4%26%
Suffolk/WHDH [292] February 11–15, 2012600±4%55%22%2%22%
Suffolk/WHDH [293] May 20–22, 2012600±4%49%28%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Alan
Khazei (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%50%31%—19%
WBUR MassInc [294] August 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%45%30%2%22%
Public Policy Polling [237] September 16–18, 2011957±3.2%48%33%—18%
UMass Lowell [295] September 22–28, 2011506±5.3%40%28%6%26%
Western N.E. College [296] September 29 – October 5, 2011475±4.5%52%35%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Joseph P.
Kennedy II (D)		OtherUndecided
7News/Suffolk University [297] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%45%40%—14%
UMass Lowell [298] September 22–28, 2011499±5.4%37%45%4%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Vicki
Kennedy (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [286] November 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%48%41%—11%
7News/Suffolk University [299] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%52%30%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Jim
King (D)		OtherUndecided
Suffolk/WHDH [300] February 11–15, 2012600±4%57%21%2%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Stephen
Lynch (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [286] November 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%49%30%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Rachel
Maddow (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%49%29%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Ed
Markey (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [286] November 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%49%39%—13%
7News/Suffolk University [301] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%53%26%—20%
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%47%37%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Bob
Massie (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%48%25%—27%
WBUR MassInc [302] August 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%45%29%3%23%
Public Policy Polling [237] September 16–18, 2011957±3.2%49%31%—21%
UMass Lowell [303] September 22–28, 2011506±5.4%43%27%5%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Tim
Murray (D)		OtherUndecided
7News/Suffolk University [304] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%51%23%1%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Deval
Patrick (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [286] November 29 – December 1, 2010500±4.4%49%42%—9%
7News/Suffolk University [305] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%52%37%—11%
UMass Lowell [306] September 22–28, 2011506±5.4%36%43%5%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Herb
Robinson (D)		OtherUndecided
UMass Lowell [307] September 22–28, 2011499±5.4%51%18%5%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Brown (R)		Setti
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
7News/Suffolk University [308] April 3–5, 2011500±4.4%52%9%3%36%
Public Policy Polling [235] June 2–5, 2011957±3.2%48%23%—29%
WBUR MassInc [309] August 30 – September 1, 2011500±4.4%46%28%3%24%
Public Policy Polling [237] September 16–18, 2011957±3.2%47%32%—21%
UMass Lowell [310] September 22–28, 2011506±5.4%43%28%6%23%

Results

Despite the Obama campaign's easy victory in the state, and winning all of the state's counties, Warren significantly underperformed Obama's margin. As expected, Warren performed very well in Suffolk County, which is home to the state's largest city and its capital Boston. Brown performed well in the southern part of the state near Cape Cod. Warren made history by becoming the first Massachusetts woman elected to the U.S. Senate.

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2012 [311]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren 1,696,346 53.74 +6.67
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent)1,458,04846.19−5.64
Write-in 2,1590.07+0.02
Total votes3,156,553 100.00 N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Warren won 5 of 9 congressional districts, while Brown won 4, which all elected Democrats. [312]

DistrictBrownWarrenRepresentative
1st 42.83%57.17% John Olver (112th Congress)
Richard Neal (113th Congress)
2nd 48.55%51.45% Richard Neal (112th Congress)
Jim McGovern (113th Congress)
3rd 50.82%49.18% Jim McGovern (112th Congress)
Niki Tsongas (113th Congress)
4th 50.35%49.65% Barney Frank (112th Congress)
Joe Kennedy III (113th Congress)
5th 41.22%58.78% Niki Tsongas (112th Congress)
Ed Markey (113th Congress)
6th 53.62%46.38% John F. Tierney
7th 21.36%78.64% Ed Markey (112th Congress)
Michael Capuano (113th Congress)
8th 49.90%50.10% Michael Capuano (112th Congress)
Stephen Lynch (113th Congress)
9th 51.12%48.88% Stephen Lynch (112th Congress)
Bill Keating (113th Congress)

Aftermath

The People's Pledge was a popular concept, which Common Cause proposed being implemented in other races. The pledge also resulted in fewer attack ads on the airwaves. [313]

Less than two months after the election, President Barack Obama nominated Senator John Kerry to become United States Secretary of State. Kerry was sworn in on February 1, making newly inaugurated Warren the state's senior Senator, and the Senate's most-junior senior senator. [314] In the special election to replace Kerry the following year, Democratic nominee Ed Markey asked his Republican rival Gabriel E. Gomez to sign a similar pledge with him, although Gomez refused. [315]

The election was a critical event in both candidates' political careers, with Warren becoming a political icon after entering the Senate, and being drafted to run for president in 2016 and eventually running in 2020. [316] After the election loss, Brown was considered the most prominent Republican in Massachusetts and heavily favored to run in the special Senate election the following year or for governor in 2014, [6] [317] though he declined to do either. [318] [319] He instead moved to New Hampshire and ran for the Senate there in 2014 against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. [320] He lost, 51% to 48%, becoming the first male candidate to lose two Senate races to female candidates. [321]

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

Notes

A. ^ The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican , Daily Hampshire Gazette , New England Public Radio, Valley Press Club, Springfield Public Forum, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, and University of Massachusetts Amherst. [322]
B. ^ The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe . [218]
C. ^ The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.

Citations

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  96. ↑ "Former Democratic Marlborough senator endorses Brown in Hudson". The MetroWest Daily News. October 11, 2012. Retrieved October 13, 2012.
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  320. ↑ "Report: Scott Brown is officially running for US Senate in New Hampshire". Boston.com. April 2, 2014. Archived from the original on April 5, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
  321. ↑ Zavadski, Katie (November 5, 2014). "11 Big Firsts From the 2014 Midterm Elections". Archived from the original on November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  322. ↑ "Campus co-sponsoring Oct. 10 debate between Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren". University of Massachusetts Amherst. Archived from the original on December 15, 2012. Retrieved September 4, 2012.
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