2012 United States Senate election in Utah

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2012 United States Senate election in Utah
Flag of Utah (2011-2024).svg
  2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018  
Turnout55.4% (voting eligible) [1]
  Orrin Hatch 113th Congress.jpg Scott Howell.jpg
Nominee Orrin Hatch Scott Howell
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote657,608301,873
Percentage65.31%29.98%

2012 United States Senate election in Utah results map by county.svg
County results
Hatch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Howell:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Orrin Hatch
Republican

The 2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh term against the Democratic candidate, former state Senator and IBM executive Scott Howell, in a rematch of the 2000 Senate election,with Hatch doing slightly better than in 2000. . [2] This would be the last time Hatch was elected to the Senate before his retirement in 2018.

Contents

Background

Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.5% of the vote against Pete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah. Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory of Mike Lee over Bob Bennett in the 2010 election. [3]

Republican nomination

Convention

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary for Utah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010, Mike Lee defeated Bob Bennett in the 2010 Utah Senate election. [3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. Senator Mike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary. [16] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until after Labor Day of 2011. [17]

In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin endorsed Hatch. [18] The fiscally conservative 501(c)4 organization Club for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, State Children's Health Insurance Program, No Child Left Behind Act, Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election. [19] In an interview with Politico , Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor of Equal Opportunity to Serve Act and the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993. [20] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.

Endorsements

Orrin Hatch
Dan Liljenquist

Polling

In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% went for Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided. [26] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% went for Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod. [27]

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Orrin Hatch 2,243 57.25
Republican Dan Liljenquist 1,108 28.28
Republican Chris Herrod42110.75
Republican Tim Aalders781.99
Republican Dale Ash180.46
Republican David Chiu170.43
Republican Jeremy Friedbaum150.38
Republican Loy Arlan Brunson140.36
Republican Kevin Fisk30.08
Republican Dub Lawrence10.03
Total votes3,918 100
Republican convention, 2nd round results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Orrin Hatch 2,313 59.19
Republican Dan Liljenquist1,59540.81
Total votes3,908 100

Primary

Candidates

  • Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Dan Liljenquist, former state senator

Campaign

After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist. [28]

Endorsements

Orrin Hatch
Dan Liljenquist

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch
Dan
Liljenquist
Other/
Undecided
Utah Data Points/Key Research [34] June 12–19, 2012500±4.4%56%25%18%
Deseret News/KSL-TV [35] June 15–21, 2012737±3.6%60%32%8%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Hatch-->90%
Hatch--80-90%
Hatch--70-80%
Hatch--60-70%
Hatch--50-60% Utah U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Hatch—>90%
  •   Hatch—80–90%
  •   Hatch—70–80%
  •   Hatch—60–70%
  •   Hatch—50–60%
Republican primary results [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Orrin Hatch (incumbent) 146,394 66.5%
Republican Dan Liljenquist73,66833.5%
Total votes220,062 100.0%

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary. [39]

Democratic convention results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Scott Howell - 63
Democratic Pete Ashdown-37
Total votes- 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Scott Howell (D)$421,086$420,779$306$0
Orrin Hatch (R)$11,577,851$13,140,209$779,719$515,845
William Barron (I)$17,157$14,116$3,038$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [41] [42] [43]

Top contributors

Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
International Union of Operating Engineers $10,000 OC Tanner Inc $72,010Peace River Citrus Products$2,000
Altaview Orthodontics$5,000 Cancer Treatment Centers of America $67,500Cirque Property$1,000
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $5,000 Cerberus Capital Management $65,000
International Association of Iron Workers $5,000 Fresenius Medical Care $65,500
Intermountain Healthcare National Education Association $5,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $54,500
Shurtleff Construction$5,000 Ernst & Young $53,000
St Mark's Hospital$5,000 PricewaterhouseCoopers $42,008
United Steelworkers $5,000 Herbalife International $41,900
Sutter Health $4,500 Marriott International $39,500
IBM Corporation $3,150 Apollo Global Management $39,000
Source: OpenSecrets [44]

Top industries

Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
Retired$43,100 Financial Institutions $1,113,746Retired$4,050
Health Professionals $17,000 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$834,601 Agribusiness $2,000
Building Trade Unions$15,000 Lobbyists $508,567 Real Estate $1,000
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $14,500 Insurance $495,968Education$750
Lawyers/Law Firms $12,250Lawyers/Law Firms$479,871Misc Business$500
Industrial Unions $10,000Health Professionals$447,415
General Contractors$7,500 Real Estate $412,394
Automotive $5,000 Health Services/HMOs $396,132
Public Sector Unions $5,000 Leadership PACs $394,550
High-Tech Industry $4,900 Oil & Gas $391,878
Source: OpenSecrets [45]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] Solid RNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Safe RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [48] Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [49] Safe RNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Scott
Howell (D)
Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV [35] June 15–21, 20121,228±2.8%63%29%8%
Utah State University [50] October 8–13, 2012n/a±7.6%67%24%9%
Key Research [51] October 9–13, 2012500±4.4%61%22%17%
Deseret News/KSL [52] October 26 – November 1, 2012870±3.4%63%26%11%
Hypothetical polling

with Dan Liljenquist

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dan
Liljenquist (R)
Scott
Howell (D)
Other/
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV [35] June 15–21, 20121228±2.8%48%34%18%

with Jason Chaffetz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Jan
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%53%34%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Sam
Granato (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%54%33%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
Chaffetz (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV [54] June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%46%45%8%
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%42%47%11%
Mason-Dixon [55] August 8–10, 2011625±4.0%49%43%8%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV [54] June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%44%45%11%
Mason-Dixon [55] August 8–10, 2011625±4.0%48%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jan
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%55%34%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Sam
Granato (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [53] July 8–10, 2011732±3.6%56%31%13%

Republican primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Orrin
Hatch
Jason
Chaffetz
Undecided
Deseret News/KSL-TV [54] June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%44%10%
Public Policy Polling [56] July 8–10, 2011406±4.9%43%47%10%
Mason-Dixon [55] August 8–10, 2011305±5.7%49%39%12%

Results

United States Senate election in Utah, 2012 [57]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Orrin Hatch (incumbent) 657,608 65.31% +2.95%
Democratic Scott Howell 301,87329.98%−1.08%
Constitution Shaun McCausland31,9053.17%−0.60%
Justice Daniel Geery8,3420.83%N/A
Independent Bill Barron7,1720.71%N/A
Total votes1,006,901 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Hatch won all 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [58]

DistrictHatchHowellRepresentative
1st 69.84%25.63% Rob Bishop
2nd 60.84%33.85% Chris Stewart
3rd 70.35%25.14% Jason Chaffetz
4th 59.92%35.62% Jim Matheson

See also

Related Research Articles

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Official campaign websites