2012 United States Senate election in New York

Last updated

2012 United States Senate election in New York
Flag of New York (1909-2020).svg
←  2010 (special) November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout53.2% (voting eligible) [1]
  Kirsten Gillibrand, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg EWendyLong022612 12 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Kirsten Gillibrand Wendy Long
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance
Parties
 Conservative
Popular vote4,822,3301,758,702
Percentage72.21%26.34%
2012 United States Senate election in New York results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in New York by Congressional District.svg
Gillibrand:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Long:     40–50%     50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections.

Contents

Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. Senator from New York until the 2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, who resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Gillibrand won the special election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. Representative Joseph DioGuardi.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term. She was opposed in the general election by Wendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide, losing only Wyoming and Alleghany counties.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Gillibrand was endorsed by the Independence Party of New York and the Working Families Party and appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election. [3] [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012. [8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority. [9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%. [10]

Long was designated as the nominee for the Conservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line. [4] [11]

Withdrew

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Wendy
Long		George
Maragos		Bob
Turner		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [14] March 28 – April 2, 2012372±5.1%11%7%19%2%61%
Siena College [15] April 1–4, 2012218±6.6%10%5%19%—66%
Siena College [16] May 6–10, 2012205±6.8%12%6%15%—67%
Siena College [17] June 3–6, 2012201±6.9%11%3%16%—70%

Endorsements

Wendy Long
Bob Turner

Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012: http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/USSenator_07292013.pdf

Results

Results by county: Long .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Long--80-90% Long--70-80% Long--60-70% Long--50-60% Long--40-50% Turner Turner--40-50% Turner--50-60% Turner--60-70% Turner--70-80% Maragos Maragos--40-50% New York U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
Long
  •   Long—80–90%
  •   Long—70–80%
  •   Long—60–70%
  •   Long—50–60%
  •   Long—40–50%
Turner
  •   Turner—40–50%
  •   Turner—50–60%
  •   Turner—60–70%
  •   Turner—70–80%
Maragos
  •   Maragos—40–50%
Republican primary results [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Wendy Long 75,924 50.2%
Republican Bob Turner 54,19635.9%
Republican George Maragos21,00213.9%
Total votes151,122 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)$13,778,867$3,734,097$10,541,156$0
Wendy Long (R)$336,976$240,564$96,411$250,077
Chris Edes (L)$2,017$668$1,348$0
John Mangelli (I)$43,819$43,820$0$22,120
Source: Federal Election Commission [20] [21] [22] [23]

Top contributors

[24]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Boies, Schiller & Flexner $394,664 Citizens United $10,000
Davis Polk & Wardwell $314,600 Susan B. Anthony List $10,000
Corning Inc. $150,650 Davis, Polk & Wardwell $8,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co $143,800 Kirkland & Ellis $7,000
Morgan Stanley $140,800Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz$6,000
National Amusements Inc. $126,850 Alta Partners $5,500
Goldman Sachs $117,400 Actimize $5,000
Blackstone Group $106,700 Carlyle Group $5,000
Sullivan & Cromwell $100,750 Credit Suisse Group $5,000
Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett $95,700 Crow Holdings $5,000

Top industries

[25]

Kirsten GillibrandContributionWendy LongContribution
Lawyers/law firms $4,050,294Lawyers/law firms$38,550
Financial Institutions $2,748,640Financial institutions$31,750
Real estate $1,257,504Real estate$26,250
Retired$921,738Retired$25,050
Women's issues $853,517Misc. finance$16,000
Entertainment industry$764,677Women's issues$15,150
Lobbyists $723,596 Republican/Conservative$11,250
Misc. finance$644,953Education$7,250
Business services$621,286Misc. business$7,000
Insurance $518,275 Construction services $5,000

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Solid DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Safe DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [28] Safe DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [29] Safe DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		Wendy
Long (R)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [14] March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%58%25%1%13%
Siena College [15] April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%63%23%—14%
Siena College [16] May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%26%—14%
Quinnipiac [30] May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%58%24%1%15%
Siena College [17] June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%22%—12%
Siena College [31] July 10–15, 2012758±3.6%62%25%—13%
Quinnipiac [32] July 17–23, 20121,779±2.3%57%24%1%16%
Siena College [33] August 14–19, 2012671±3.8%65%22%—13%
Quinnipiac [34] September 4–9, 20121,468±2.5%64%27%—9%
Marist [35] October 18–21, 2012565±4.1%68%24%—8%
Siena College [36] October 22–24, 2012750±3.6%67%24%—8%
SurveyUSA [37] October 23–25, 2012554±4.1%64%22%7%7%
Hypothetical polling

with George Maragos

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		George
Maragos (R)		OtherUndecided
Siena College [38] November 8–13, 2011803±3.5%65%17%—18%
Siena College [39] January 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%22%—15%
Siena College [40] January 29 – February 1, 2012807±3.4%63%20%—17%
SurveyUSA [41] February 24–26, 2012518±4.4%53%23%—25%
Siena College [42] February 26–29, 2012808±3.4%68%19%—13%
Quinnipiac [14] March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%23%2%15%
Siena College [15] April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%21%—14%
Siena College [16] May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%60%25%—15%
Quinnipiac [30] May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%57%24%1%16%
Siena College [17] June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%65%23%—13%

with Bob Turner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		Bob
Turner (R)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [14] March 28 – April 2, 20121,597±2.5%57%27%1%13%
Siena College [15] April 1–4, 2012808±3.4%65%24%—11%
Siena College [16] May 6–10, 2012766±3.5%59%25%—15%
Quinnipiac [30] May 22–28, 20121,504±2.5%56%26%0%15%
Siena College [17] June 3–6, 2012807±3.4%63%25%—11%

with Marc Cenedella

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		Marc
Cenedella (R)		Undecided
Siena College [43] January 29 – February 1, 2012807±3.4%65%18%17%

with Harry Wilson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		Harry
Wilson (R)		Undecided
Siena College [38] November 8–13, 2011803±3.5%63%21%16%
Siena College [39] January 8–12, 2012805±3.5%63%23%14%

Results

2012 United States Senate election in New York [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kirsten Gillibrand 4,432,52566.38%+11.38%
Working Families Kirsten Gillibrand 251,2923.76%−0.29%
Independence Kirsten Gillibrand 138,5132.07%−1.83%
Total Kirsten Gillibrand (incumbent)4,822,33072.21%+9.26%
Republican Wendy Long 1,517,57822.73%−6.96%
Conservative Wendy Long 241,1243.61%−1.81%
Total Wendy Long 1,758,70226.34%−8.77%
Green Colia Clark 42,5910.64%−0.15%
Libertarian Chris Edes32,0020.48%+0.07%
Independent John Mangelli22,0410.33%N/A
Total votes6,677,666 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Gillibrand won all 27 congressional districts, including six held by Republicans. [45] She won all but two with over 60% of the vote, with the 27th being her weakest with only 55% of the vote.

DistrictGillibrandLongRepresentative
1st 62.13%36.58% Tim Bishop
2nd 63.33%35.51% Peter T. King
3rd 62.51%36.28% Steve Israel
4th 66.17%32.88% Carolyn McCarthy
5th 92.327.21% Gregory Meeks
6th 75.99%22.58% Grace Meng
7th 90.67%7.65% Nydia Velázquez
8th 91.75%7.35% Hakeem Jeffries
9th 89.59%9.33% Yvette Clarke
10th 81.28%17.15% Jerry Nadler
11th 64.5%34.23% Michael Grimm
12th 81.74%16.49% Carolyn Maloney
13th 95.05%3.91% Charles B. Rangel
14th 84.85%13.76% Joe Crowley
15th 96.89%2.7% Jose Serrano
16th 79.78%19.23% Eliot Engel
17th 68.41%30.33% Nita Lowey
18th 64.33%34.22% Sean Patrick Maloney
19th 65.98%32.34% Chris Gibson
20th 71.07%27.26% Paul Tonko
21st 65.41%33.1% Bill Owens
22nd 61.77%36.05% Richard L. Hanna
23rd 58.95%39.13% Tom Reed
24th 65.34%32.06% Dan Maffei
25th 66.81%31.45% Louise Slaughter
26th 73.31%24.99% Brian Higgins
27th 55.55%42.71% Chris Collins

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References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ↑ Hill, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again". Associated Press. Retrieved December 28, 2010.
  3. ↑ Johnson, Michael (March 12, 2012). "State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  4. 1 2 "New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long". The Post-Standard . Associated Press. March 19, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  5. ↑ Benjamin, Liz (January 29, 2012). "A New Challenger To Gillibrand?". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2012.
  6. ↑ "U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch". patch.com. Archived from the original on July 27, 2011. Retrieved June 3, 2011.
  7. ↑ Campbell, Colin (March 13, 2012). "Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand". Politicker . Retrieved March 13, 2012.
  8. ↑ Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012). Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention. Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.
  9. ↑ Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012). Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate. Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  10. ↑ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". Wall Street Journal. News Corporation. June 27, 2012. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
  11. ↑ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". WSJ.com. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012.
  12. ↑ Vielkind, Jimmy (February 29, 2012). "Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand". Albany Times Union . Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  13. ↑ Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012). Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated). Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  15. 1 2 3 4 Siena College [ permanent dead link ]
  16. 1 2 3 4 Siena College
  17. 1 2 3 4 Siena College
  18. ↑ "2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. November 8, 2016.
  19. ↑ "Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand". Irregular Times. April 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 5, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  20. ↑ "Gillibrand Campaign Finances". fec.gov.[ permanent dead link ]
  21. ↑ "Long Campaign Finances". fec.gov.[ permanent dead link ]
  22. ↑ "Mangelli Campaign Finances". fec.gov.[ permanent dead link ]
  23. ↑ "Edes Campaign Finances". fec.gov.[ permanent dead link ]
  24. ↑ "New York Senate Race". opensecrets.org.
  25. ↑ "Kansas District 04 Race". opensecrets.org.
  26. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  27. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  28. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  29. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  30. 1 2 3 Quinnipiac Archived May 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  31. ↑ Siena College
  32. ↑ Quinnipiac Archived July 28, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  33. ↑ Siena College
  34. ↑ Quinnipiac Archived September 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ↑ Marist
  36. ↑ Siena College
  37. ↑ SurveyUSA
  38. 1 2 Siena College
  39. 1 2 Siena College
  40. ↑ Siena College
  41. ↑ SurveyUSA
  42. ↑ Siena College
  43. ↑ Siena College
  44. ↑ "2012 U.S. Senate election results" (PDF). Elections.NY.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 7, 2019. Retrieved January 19, 2019.
  45. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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