2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota

2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota

←  2010 November 6, 2012 2014  →

Nominee Kristi Noem Matt Varilek Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 207,640 153,789 Percentage 57.45% 42.55%

County results Noem:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Varilek:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election Kristi Noem Republican Elected U.S. Representative Kristi Noem Republican

The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the single U.S. Representative from South Dakota's At-large congressional district, comprising the entire state of South Dakota. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kristi Noem, incumbent U.S. Representative ^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Matt Varilek, staffer for Senator Tim Johnson ^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Jeff Barth, Minnehaha County Commissioner ^[1]

Declined

• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former U.S. Representative ^[3]

Primary results

Democratic primary results ^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Matt Varilek	21,759	71.9
	Democratic	Jeff Barth	8,494	28.1
Total votes			30,253	100.0

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kristi Noem (R)	Matt Varilek (D)	Undecided
Nielson Brothers Polling [5]	October 31 – November 4, 2012	633	± 3.90%	54%	41%	5%
Nielson Brothers Polling [6]	October 28–31, 2012	671	± 3.78%	50%	44%	5%
Nielson Brothers Polling [7]	August 29 – September 6, 2012	509	± 4.34%	51%	42%	7%
Nielson Brothers Polling [8]	July 19–23, 2012	541	± 4.21%	47%	46%	7%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kristi Noem (R)	Stephanie H. Sandlin (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [9]	January 28–30, 2011	1,045	± 3.0%	45%	46%	8%

Endorsements

Matt Varilek (D)

Organizations

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Emerging Races" Program ^[10]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [11]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg [12]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call [13]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
NY Times [15]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP [16]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
The Hill [17]	Safe R	November 4, 2012

Results

South Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2012 ^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Kristi Noem (incumbent)	207,640	57.45%	+9.33%
	Democratic	Matt Varilek	153,789	42.55%	−3.34%
Total votes			361,429	100.00	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Beadle (Largest city: Huron)
• Bon Homme (Largest city: Springfield)
• Brule (Largest city: Chamberlain)
• Corson (Largest city: McLaughlin)
• Deuel (Largest city: Clear Lake)
• Grant (Largest city: Milbank)
• Jerauld (Largest city: Wessington Springs)
• Kingsbury (Largest city: De Smet)
• Lake (Largest city: Madison)
• Miner (Largest city: Howard)
• Minnehaha (Largest city: Sioux Falls)
• Moody (Largest city: Flandreau)
• Sanborn (Largest city: Woonsocket)
• Brookings (largest city: Brookings)
• Aurora (largest city: Plankinton)
• Bennett (largest city: Martin)
• Clark (largest city: Clark)
• Spink (largest city: Redfield)
• Mellette (Largest city: White River)

References

1. Luther, Megan (July 16, 2011). "Rep. Noem gears up for re-election campaign". Argus Leader . Retrieved July 20, 2011.^{[ permanent dead link ]}
2. Hayworth, Bret (December 2, 2011). "Politically Speaking: Varilek enters race for South Dakota congressional seat". Sioux City Journal . Retrieved December 2, 2011.
3. Montgomery, David (January 22, 2012). "Herseth Sandlin won't run for House seat". Rapid City Journal. Archived from the original on August 21, 2025. Retrieved August 21, 2025.
4. "Statewide Races". Secretary of State of South Dakota . June 25, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
5. "Nielson Brothers Polling" (PDF).
6. "McGovern, Noem have leads in newly released poll results | The Daily Republic | Mitchell, South Dakota". November 5, 2012. Archived from the original on November 5, 2012.
7. "Poll: Noem opens lead of nine points | The Daily Republic | Mitchell, South Dakota". September 26, 2012. Archived from the original on September 26, 2012.
8. "Final July Survey Candidates and Issues | PDF". Scribd.
9. "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
10. "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
11. "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
12. "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
13. , as of November 4,2012 [update]
14. Crystal Ball Archived April 20, 2023, at the Wayback Machine , as of November 5,2012 ^[update]
15. House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4,2012 ^[update]
16. , as of November 4,2012 [update]
17. "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
18. "Secretary of State — Statewide Races" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2012.

External links

• Elections from the South Dakota Secretary of State
• United States House of Representatives elections in South Dakota, 2012 at Ballotpedia
• South Dakota - At-Large from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
• Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Kristi Noem campaign website
• Matt Varilek campaign website