2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut
Flag of Connecticut.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018  →
Turnout60.9% (voting eligible) [1]
  Chris murphy official photo govtrends version cropped.jpg Linda McMahon Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.jpg
Nominee Chris Murphy Linda McMahon
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Independent
Popular vote828,761651,089
Percentage54.82%43.07%
2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by municipality.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut by congressional district.svg
Murphy:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
McMahon:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Joe Lieberman
Independent

Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Murphy
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 6, 2012, in conjunction with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primaries to elect Senate candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties were held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012. [2]

Contents

Incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucused with the Democratic Party, decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. [3] Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon faced Democratic representative Chris Murphy in the general election and lost, marking two defeats in two years. [4] Elected at the age of 39, Chris Murphy would be the youngest senator in the 113th United States Congress.

Background

In the 2006 election, incumbent Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont and formed his own party, Connecticut for Lieberman, winning re-election. Lieberman promised to remain in the Senate Democratic Caucus, but had since stood against the Democrats on many significant issues, including his endorsement of Republican 2008 presidential nominee John McCain over Barack Obama. [5] As a result, Lieberman's poll numbers among Democrats dropped significantly. [6] [7]

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was reportedly considering a run against Lieberman, [8] but instead ran for and won Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 after U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd announced his retirement. [9]

Lieberman had publicly floated the possibility of running as a Democrat, [10] Republican, [11] or an independent. [12] However, on January 19, 2011, he announced that he would not run for another term. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Matthew Oakes, activist (endorsed Murphy) [17]
  • William Tong, State Representative (running for re-election; endorsed Murphy) [18]

Debates

The first Democratic debate took place on February 23, 2012, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, and Tong participating. [19] The first televised debate was held on April 5, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, Tong, Oakes, and Whitnum participating. [20] A debate was held at UConn on April 9, with the five candidates participating. [21] A debate sponsored by WFSB took place on April 15, with all five taking part. [22]

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsed Chris Murphy at their state party convention held on May 12. Murphy was the choice of 1,378 delegates (76 percent), while Susan Bysiewicz won 444 delegates (24 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Matthew Oakes received the support of one delegate from Hartford. Lee Whitnum's name was not placed in nomination. [23]

Endorsements

Chris Murphy

Politicians

Organizations

Susan Bysiewicz

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz		Chris
Murphy		William
Tong		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [30] March 17–20, 2011400±4.9%38%40%——21%
Quinnipiac [31] September 8–13, 2011447±4.6%26%36%1%2%35%
Public Policy Polling [32] September 22–25, 2011400±4.9%33%39%8%—19%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 2012640±3.9%25%37%4%5%29%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 2012538±4.2%20%50%—5%24%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012400±4.9%32%49%——18%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Murphy--70-80% Murphy--60-70% Murphy--50-60% 2012 CT US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Murphy—70–80%
  Murphy—60–70%
  Murphy—50–60%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Murphy 89,283 67.4%
Democratic Susan Bysiewicz 43,13532.6%
Total votes132,418 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

A debate sponsored by the Norwich Bulletin took place on April 19, 2012, with McMahon, Shays, Lumaj, Hill, and Westby in attendance. [41] The debate was not televised. The first televised debate took place on April 22, 2012, sponsored by WFSB. [42] All five candidates participated.

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Republican Party endorsed Linda McMahon at their state party convention held on May 18. McMahon was the choice of 730 delegates (60 percent), while Chris Shays won 389 delegates (32 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Brian K. Hill, Peter Lumaj, and Kie Westby did not meet the 15 percent threshold necessary to automatically qualify for the primary, receiving the support of 62, 22, and 5 delegates, respectively. [43] Hill pursued a post-convention attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot, but fell short of the 8,319 signatures required and suspended his campaign in June. [44]

Endorsements

Chris Shays

Politicians

Organizations

Newspapers

Linda McMahon

Politicians

Organizations

Brian K. Hill

Politicians

  • Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and former 2012 presidential candidate

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jason
McCoy		Linda
McMahon		Chris
Shays		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [55] September 8–13, 2011332±5.4%—50%35%2%12%
Public Policy Polling [32] September 22–25, 2011400±4.9%3%60%27%—10%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 2012429±4.7%—51%42%1%6%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 2012381±5.0%—59%30%1%9%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012400±4.9%—68%20%—12%

Results

Results by county: McMahon--80-90% McMahon--70-80% McMahon--60-70% CT U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  McMahon—80–90%
  McMahon—70–80%
  McMahon—60–70%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Linda McMahon 83,413 72.7%
Republican Chris Shays 31,30527.3%
Total votes114,718 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Susan Bysiewicz was the first to declare herself as a candidate. [57] However, by March 2011 Chris Murphy had raised over $1 million to Bysiewicz's $500,000. Murphy had won election to Connecticut's 5th congressional district, which is considered Republican-leaning, and he promoted himself as the most electable candidate against a Republican challenger. Bysiewicz, the former Secretary of the State of Connecticut, enjoyed high name recognition while a statewide officeholder, and had a formidable face-off with Murphy. William Tong, a state representative, joined the race touting his biography as the son of Chinese immigrants working at a Chinese restaurant. [58] In January East Hartford resident Matthew John Oakes announced his candidacy. Oakes pointed to his real-life experience being a disabled American, victim of crime, and civil rights activist, growing up in the inner city and being a political outsider. [59]

Wide speculation continued on Linda McMahon, who had a widely publicized race for senator in 2010. She lost the election decisively, but had strong finances and a well-established political organization. [58] McMahon met with her former campaign consultant to review her 2010 results, and said she was leaning towards running. She planned to make a decision regarding another run after the start of 2012. Former congressman Chris Shays joined in August 2011, promoting his involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan's military contracting. [60] Shays campaign had also gained traction from a series of independent polls showing him beating or in a dead heat with the top Democratic contenders in the general election, while those same polls showed McMahon losing handily to each of the top Democratic contenders. [45] The Shays campaign quickly capitalized on these polls, arguing for the former Congressman's electability while questioning McMahon's electability due to her loss in an open Senate seat contest in 2010 by a large margin despite spending $50 million of her own money, also citing her high unfavorable numbers among state voters, and the weak fundraising numbers of the McMahon campaign. [61]

In July 2012, Shays declared that he would not support McMahon if she won the primary. He said that he had "never run against an opponent that I have respected less—ever—and there are a lot of candidates I have run against," adding that "I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what [being] a senator really means." He also said that during the last debate he had with McMahon, "I thought she was embarrassingly clueless" and that "I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator." Although he said he would not support Chris Murphy, he expected him to win the Democratic nomination and the general election. [62]

In September 2012, the records of the McMahons' 1976 bankruptcy and specifics of nearly $1 million unpaid debts from the proceeding were published. [63] In days the candidate and her husband announced the "intention to reimburse all private individual creditors that can be located". [64]

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Chris Murphy (D)$10,543,456$10,436,219$107,239$189,925
Linda McMahon (R)$50,956,502$50,262,442$351,464$1,250,000
Source: Federal Election Commission [65] [66]

Top contributors

Chris MurphyContributionLinda McMahonContribution
Moveon.org $112,864 Morgan Stanley $31,050
Yale University $69,101Linda McMahon for Senate$26,174
League of Conservation Voters $47,388 General Electric $24,250
Koskoff, Koskoff & Bieder$44,916Ott International$15,000
Travelers Companies $41,000 Thor Industries $12,500
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company $40,650 JPMorgan Chase & Co. $11,231
Sullivan & Cromwell $36,500Ceci Brothers Inc.$10,000
Comcast Corporation $36,000Invemed Associates$10,000
Shipman & Goodwin$35,511Midstream Partners$10,000
Northeast Utilities $34,789 Tudor Investment Corporation $10,000
Source: OpenSecrets [67]

Top industries

Chris MurphyContributionLinda McMahonContribution
Retired$1,041,795 Financial Institutions $121,717
Lawyers/Law Firms $861,258Retired$81,949
Financial Institutions$580,370Misc Business$55,302
Real Estate $319,466 Manufacturing & Distributing$46,500
Leadership PACs $302,500Misc Finance$38,050
Insurance Industry $302,025Business Services$28,932
Health Professionals$285,150Real Estate$27,000
Democratic/Liberal$267,018Republican/Conservative$25,630
Universities $232,951Candidate Committees$24,874
Business Services$228,550Lawyers/Law Firms$24,372
Source: OpenSecrets [68]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [69] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [71] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [72] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Linda
McMahon (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%54%38%—9%
Quinnipiac [74] September 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%49%38%—11%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%50%43%—6%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%52%37%—9%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%46%43%—9%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012771±3.5%50%42%—8%
Rasmussen Reports [76] August 21, 2012500±4.5%46%49%—5%
Public Policy Polling [77] August 22–23, 2012881±3.3%48%44%—8%
Quinnipiac [34] August 22–26, 20121,472±2.6%46%49%—4%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant [78] September 11–16, 2012517±4.0%37%33%1%28%
Public Policy Polling [79] September 24–26, 2012801±3.5%48%42%—10%
Quinnipiac University Poll [80] September 28 – October 2, 20121,696±2.5%47%48%—5%
Rasmussen Reports [81] October 7, 2012500±4.5%51%46%2%1%
Siena Research Institute [82] October 4–14, 2012552±4.2%46%44%—8%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant [83] October 11–16, 2012574±4%44%38%—17%
Public Policy Polling/LCV [84] October 15–16, 20121,015±3.1%48%44%—8%
Mason-Dixon [85] October 15–17, 2012625±4%44%44%—12%
SurveyUSA [86] October 19–21, 2012575±4.2%47%43%3%4%
Rasmussen Reports [87] October 21, 2012500±4.5%48%47%2%3%
Quinnipiac [88] October 19–22, 20121,412±2.6%49%43%1%7%
Rasmussen Reports [89] October 28, 2012500±4.5%51%45%1%3%
Public Policy Polling [90] November 1–2, 20121,220±2.8%52%43%—4%
Hypothetical polling

With Mark Boughton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Mark
Boughton (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%44%34%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Mark
Boughton (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%52%29%19%

With Susan Bysiewicz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Linda
McMahon (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%50%39%12%
Quinnipiac [74] September 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%46%38%12%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%47%46%7%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%49%39%9%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%42%46%9%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012771±3.5%45%42%13%

With Michael Fedele

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Michael
Fedele (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%45%35%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Michael
Fedele (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%51%29%20%

With Scott Frantz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Scott
Frantz (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%45%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Scott
Frantz (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%51%27%22%

With Joe Lieberman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Lieberman (I)		Chris
Murphy (D)		Peter
Schiff (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [91] September 30 – October 2, 2010810±3.4%19%39%25%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Lieberman (I)		Chris
Murphy (D)		Jodi
Rell (R)		Undecided
Research 2000 [92] January 11–13, 2010600±4.0%23%25%47%2%
810±3.4%33%47%—20%
Public Policy Polling [91] September 30 – October 2, 2010810±3.4%17%37%29%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Lieberman (I)		Ned
Lamont (D)		Jodi
Rell (R)		Undecided
Research 2000 [93] March 23–25, 2008600±4.0%25%30%42%2%
Research 2000 [94] September 8–10, 2009600±4.0%26%26%46%2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Lieberman (I)		Ned
Lamont (D)		Alan
Schlesinger (R)		Undecided
Research 2000 [95] March 31 – April 2, 2008600±4.0%37%51%7%5%
Research 2000 [96] June 30 – July 2, 2008600±4.0%36%51%7%6%
Research 2000 [96] November 11–13, 2008600±4.0%34%59%3%2%

With Chris Shays

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Chris
Shays (R)		Undecided
Quinnipiac [74] September 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%40%42%16%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%37%48%16%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%42%43%13%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%40%44%11%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012771±3.5%40%43%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Chris
Shays (R)		Undecided
Quinnipiac [74] September 8–13, 20111,230±2.8%43%37%17%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%43%39%18%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%41%40%17%
Quinnipiac [34] May 29 – June 3, 20121,408±2.6%45%37%15%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 26–29, 2012771±3.5%47%38%15%

With Rob Simmons

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		Rob
Simmons (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%42%39%19%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%41%42%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Murphy (D)		Rob
Simmons (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [73] March 17–20, 2011822±3.4%49%34%18%
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%45%36%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		William
Tong (D)		Rob
Simmons (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%32%39%29%

With William Tong

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		William
Tong (D)		Linda
McMahon (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%38%45%17%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%39%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		William
Tong (D)		Chris
Shays (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [75] September 22–25, 2011592±4.0%27%46%27%
Quinnipiac [33] March 14–19, 20121,622±2.4%25%50%21%

Results

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012 [97]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Chris Murphy792,98352.45%+12.72%
Working Families Chris Murphy35,7782.37%N/A
Total Chris Murphy 828,761 54.82% +15.09%
Republican Linda McMahon604,56939.99%+30.37%
Independent Party Linda McMahon46,5203.08%N/A
Total Linda McMahon 651,08943.07%+33.45%
Libertarian Paul Passarelli25,0451.66%N/A
Write-in 6,8690.45%+0.45%
Total votes1,511,764 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Independent Democrat

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican

By congressional district

Murphy won all 5 congressional districts. [98]

DistrictMurphyMcMahonRepresentative
1st 59.81%38.61% John B. Larson
2nd 52.74%44.92% Joe Courtney
3rd 59.66%38.65% Rosa DeLauro
4th 53.5%44.525% Jim Himes
5th 50.72%47.79% Elizabeth Esty

See also

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican Josh Mandel, the Ohio State Treasurer. Brown was unopposed in the Democratic primary while Mandel won the Republican primary with 63% of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States Senate election in Virginia</span>

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former senator and governor George Allen. Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012. Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut</span>

The 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Connecticut were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the five congressional representatives from the state, one from each of the state's five congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election, a U.S. Senate election, and state legislature races.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Connecticut gubernatorial election</span>

The 2014 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania</span>

The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut</span>

The 2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election</span>

The 2018 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor and lieutenant governor of Connecticut, concurrently with the election of Connecticut's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This race's Democratic margin of victory was the closest to the national average of 3.1 points.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election</span>

The 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Connecticut. Incumbent Democratic governor Ned Lamont ran for re-election to a second term in office. The race simultaneously took place with the election to the state's Class III Senate seat. This election featured a rematch of the previous 2018 gubernatorial election, pitting Lamont against Republican Bob Stefanowski, whom he previously defeated by 3.2% of the vote. This time Lamont won re-election by a wider margin, becoming the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial election by more than 5 points in the state since 1986.

References

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