2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut

←  2008 November 6, 2012 2016  →

Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Massachusetts Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 905,109 634,899 Percentage 58.06% 40.72%

County results Municipality results Congressional district results Obama   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Romney   40–50%   50–60%   60–70% Tie   50–60%

President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Obama and Biden carried Connecticut with 58.1% of the popular vote to Romney's and Ryan's 40.7%, thus winning the state's seven electoral votes. ^[1] Romney managed to flip the traditionally Republican Litchfield County, which Obama had won in 2008. ^[2] As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this was the last election that the Democratic presidential nominee won Windham County.

To date, this is the last time that the last time that the towns of Berlin, Bozrah, Brooklyn, Chaplin, East Haven, Franklin, Griswold, Killingly, Lebanon, Lisbon, Naugatuck, North Branford, North Haven, North Stonington, Plainfield, Plainville, Putnam, Salem, Southington, Sprague, Stafford, Union, and Voluntown voted Democratic and the last time that the towns of Avon, Darien, East Granby, Easton, Granby, Greenwich, New Canaan, Newtown, Orange, Ridgefield, and Wilton voted Republican.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

As Barack Obama was the only candidate to qualify, no Democratic primary was held. ^[3]

Republican primary

2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary

←  2008 April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24) 2016  →

Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul Home state Massachusetts Texas Delegate count 25 0 Popular vote 40,171 8,032 Percentage 67.43% 13.48%   Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Home state Georgia Pennsylvania Delegate count 0 0 Popular vote 6,135 4,072 Percentage 10.30% 6.83%

Connecticut results by county   Mitt Romney (Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The 2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012. ^[4] It was a closed primary, open only to Republican electors. 25 of the state's 28 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention were decided by the primary outcome, with the other 3 being superdelegates: the state party chairman and the state's two Republican National Committee representatives.

Mitt Romney won the primary by a wide margin, garnering two-thirds of the vote. Only 14.4% of active registered Republicans participated in the primary, the lowest turnout since the primary format was put in place in the state in 1980. ^[5]

Process

After switching from proportional distribution of delegates to a winner-take-all system in 1996, ^[6] the Connecticut Republican Party voted in September 2011 to award delegates by a hybrid winner-take-all and proportional distribution process beginning with the 2012 primary. Of the 25 regular delegates at stake in the primary, the party called for three delegates to be awarded to the winner of each of the state's five congressional districts on a winner-take-all basis for a total of 15 delegates. The remaining 10 would be distributed proportionally based on the statewide vote total among candidates receiving at least 20% support unless a candidate won a majority of the statewide vote, in which case the candidate would receive all 10 of these delegates. ^{[6] [7]}

With Romney's primary day wins in all five congressional districts and a majority of the statewide vote, he was able to claim all 25 of the delegates at stake.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Quinnipiac [8] Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 429	Mar. 14–19, 2012	Mitt Romney 42%	Rick Santorum 19%	Newt Gingrich 13%	Ron Paul 9%, Won't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 14%
Public Policy Polling [9] Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400	Sep. 22–25, 2011	Mitt Romney 25%	Rick Perry 18%	Herman Cain 10%	Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 12%
		Mitt Romney 45%	Rick Perry 36%	–	not sure 19%
Quinnipiac [10] Margin of error: ±5.4% Sample size: 332	Sep. 8–13, 2011	Mitt Romney 37%	Rick Perry 19%	Michele Bachmann 8%	Sarah Palin 4%, Herman Cain 3%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Ron Paul 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, someone else/undecided 20%
Public Policy Polling [11] Margin of error: ±7.3% Sample size: 180	Oct. 27–29, 2010	Mitt Romney 28%	Mike Huckabee 15%	Newt Gingrich 14%	Sarah Palin 11%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18%

Results

2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary [12]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Mitt Romney	40,171	67.43%	25
Ron Paul	8,032	13.48%	0
Newt Gingrich	6,135	10.30%	0
Rick Santorum	4,072	6.83%	0
Uncommitted	1,168	1.96%	0
Unprojected delegates:			0
Total:	59,578	100%	25

Official source reports a turnout of 59,639, with the difference from 59,578 likely due to blank ballots.

Key:	Suspended campaign prior to contest

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Huffington Post [13]	Safe D	November 6, 2012
CNN [14]	Safe D	November 6, 2012
New York Times [15]	Safe D	November 6, 2012
Washington Post [16]	Safe D	November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics [17]	Solid D	November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18]	Solid D	November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight [19]	Solid D	November 6, 2012

Ballot access

• Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
• Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
• Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
• Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice

Write-in candidate access:

• Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
• Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
• Raymond Sizemore/Vicki Tomalin, Independent

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama (incumbent)	Joe Biden (incumbent)	905,109	58.06%	7
	Republican	Mitt Romney	Paul Ryan	634,899	40.72%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	Jim Gray	12,580	0.81%	0
	Justice	Rocky Anderson	Luis J. Rodriguez	5,487	0.35%	0
	Green (Write-in)	Jill Stein (Write-in)	Cheri Honkala	863	0.06%	0
	American Independent (Write-in)	Thomas Hoefling (Write-in)	Jonathan D. Ellis	25	0.00%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		25	0.00%	0
	Socialist Workers (Write-in)	James Harris (Write-in)	Maura DeLuca	5	0.00%	0
Totals				1,558,960	100.00%	7

By county

County	Barack Obama Democratic		Mitt Romney Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Fairfield	217,294	54.85%	175,168	44.22%	3,668	0.93%	42,126	10.63%	396,130
Hartford	244,639	62.37%	143,238	36.52%	4,363	1.11%	101,401	25.85%	392,240
Litchfield	43,856	47.45%	47,201	51.07%	1,370	1.48%	-3,345	-3.62%	92,427
Middlesex	47,855	57.29%	34,591	41.41%	1,092	1.30%	13,264	15.88%	83,538
New Haven	218,998	60.65%	138,364	38.32%	3,697	1.03%	80,634	22.33%	361,059
New London	67,144	58.33%	46,119	40.07%	1,839	1.60%	21,025	18.26%	115,102
Tolland	39,366	55.45%	30,450	42.89%	1,175	1.66%	8,916	12.56%	70,991
Windham	25,957	55.72%	19,768	42.43%	863	1.85%	6,189	13.29%	46,588
Totals	905,109	58.06%	634,899	40.72%	18,985	1.22%	270,210	17.34%	1,558,993

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold

Republican   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Litchfield (largest city: Torrington) ^[2]

By congressional district

Obama won all 5 congressional districts. ^[20]

District	Obama	Romney	Representative
1st	63.3%	35.6%	John B. Larson
2nd	55.9%	42.57%	Joe Courtney
3rd	62.6%	36.3%	Rosa DeLauro
4th	55.07%	44.02%	Jim Himes
5th	53.53%	45.31%	Elizabeth Esty

Analysis

Voter demographics

2012 Connecticut presidential election (New York Times) ^[21]

Demographic subgroup	Obama	Romney	% of total vote
Ideology
Liberals	93	6	28
Moderates	56	42	47
Conservatives	19	80	24
Party
Democrats	94	6	41
Republicans	9	91	26
Independents	51	46	32
Age
18–29 years old	66	30	13
30–44 years old	55	44	24
45–64 years old	58	41	43
65 and older	54	46	20
Gender
Men	51	47	47
Women	63	36	53
Marital status
Married	54	45	64
Unmarried	65	33	36
Race/ethnicity
White	51	48	79
Black	93	7	11
Latino	79	20	6
Education
Never attended college	62	37	41
Some college education	60	39	24
College graduate	49	49	31
Advanced degree	60	38	29
Income
Under $30K	73	24	12
$30K-$49K	73	26	13
$50K or more	53	46	75
$100K or more	53	46	46

See also

• United States presidential elections in Connecticut
• Presidency of Barack Obama
• 2012 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
• Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
• Connecticut Republican Party

References

1. "Connecticut Statement of Vote". CT SoS. Archived from the original on December 7, 2012. Retrieved January 19, 2013.
2. "2012 Connecticut Presidential Results". POLITICO. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
3. "Merrill: No Democratic Presidential Preference Primary in Connecticut, Only Four Candidates for Republican Ballot on April 24th" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 5, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
4. "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission . Retrieved January 23, 2012.
5. "Merrill Releases Turnout Figure From 2012 Presidential Preference Primary, Romney Wins All 25 Delegates at Stake" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State. April 25, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2012.
6. Vigdor, Neil (September 28, 2011). "State GOP moves away from winner-take-all presidential primary". GreenwichTime.com. Retrieved April 26, 2012.
7. "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee Rules and Bylaws" (PDF). September 27, 2011. Section 17. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 12, 2012. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
8. Quinnipiac
9. Public Policy Polling
10. Quinnipiac
11. Public Policy Polling
12. "Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
13. "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost . Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
14. "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN . Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
15. "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times . Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
16. "2012 Presidential Election Results" . The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
17. "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
18. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
19. "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
20. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
21. "President Exit Polls". The New York Times.

External links

• The Green Papers: for Connecticut
• The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order