2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut

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2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Flag of Connecticut.svg
  2008 November 6, 2012 2016  
Turnout73.77%
  President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote70
Popular vote905,109634,899
Percentage58.06%40.72%

Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2012.svg
Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2012 by Municipality.svg
2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut by congressional district.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Obama and Biden carried Connecticut with 58.1% of the popular vote to Romney's and Ryan's 40.7%, thus winning the state's seven electoral votes. [1] Romney managed to flip the traditionally Republican Litchfield County, which Obama had won in 2008. [2] As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this was the last election that the Democratic presidential nominee won Windham County.

Contents

To date, this is the last time that the towns of Berlin, Bozrah, Brooklyn, Chaplin, East Haven, Franklin, Griswold, Killingly, Lebanon, Lisbon, Naugatuck, North Branford, North Haven, North Stonington, Plainfield, Plainville, Putnam, Salem, Southington, Sprague, Stafford, Union, and Voluntown voted Democratic and the last time that the towns of Avon, Darien, East Granby, Easton, Granby, Greenwich, New Canaan, Newtown, Orange, Ridgefield, and Wilton voted Republican. This is also the most recent election in which Woodstock voted for the losing candidate.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

As Barack Obama was the only candidate to qualify, no Democratic primary was held. [3]

Republican primary

2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary
Flag of Connecticut.svg
  2008 April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24) 2016  
  Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped.jpg Ron Paul by Gage Skidmore 3 (crop 2).jpg
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count250
Popular vote40,1718,032
Percentage67.43%13.48%

  Newt Gingrich by Gage Skidmore 3 (cropped).jpg Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum
Home state Georgia Pennsylvania
Delegate count00
Popular vote6,1354,072
Percentage10.30%6.83%

Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2012.svg
Connecticut results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The 2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012. [4] It was a closed primary, open only to Republican electors. 25 of the state's 28 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention were decided by the primary outcome, with the other 3 being superdelegates: the state party chairman and the state's two Republican National Committee representatives.

Mitt Romney won the primary by a wide margin, garnering two-thirds of the vote. Only 14.4% of active registered Republicans participated in the primary, the lowest turnout since the primary format was put in place in the state in 1980. [5]

Process

After switching from proportional distribution of delegates to a winner-take-all system in 1996, [6] the Connecticut Republican Party voted in September 2011 to award delegates by a hybrid winner-take-all and proportional distribution process beginning with the 2012 primary. Of the 25 regular delegates at stake in the primary, the party called for three delegates to be awarded to the winner of each of the state's five congressional districts on a winner-take-all basis for a total of 15 delegates. The remaining 10 would be distributed proportionally based on the statewide vote total among candidates receiving at least 20% support unless a candidate won a majority of the statewide vote, in which case the candidate would receive all 10 of these delegates. [6] [7]

With Romney's primary day wins in all five congressional districts and a majority of the statewide vote, he was able to claim all 25 of the delegates at stake.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Quinnipiac [8]
Margin of error: ±4.7%
Sample size: 429
Mar. 14–19, 2012 Mitt Romney
42%
Rick Santorum
19%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 9%, Won't vote 3%, Don't know/No answer 14%
Public Policy Polling [9]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400
Sep. 22–25, 2011Mitt Romney
25%
Rick Perry
18%
Herman Cain
10%
Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 10%, Michele Bachmann 8%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 12%
Mitt Romney
45%
Rick Perry
36%
not sure 19%
Quinnipiac [10]
Margin of error: ±5.4%
Sample size: 332
Sep. 8–13, 2011Mitt Romney
37%
Rick Perry
19%
Michele Bachmann
8%
Sarah Palin 4%, Herman Cain 3%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Ron Paul 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, someone else/undecided 20%
Public Policy Polling [11]
Margin of error: ±7.3%
Sample size: 180
Oct. 27–29, 2010Mitt Romney
28%
Mike Huckabee
15%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Sarah Palin 11%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitch Daniels 4%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18%

Results

2012 Connecticut Republican presidential primary [12]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
America Symbol.svg Mitt Romney 40,17167.43%25
Ron Paul 8,03213.48%0
Newt Gingrich 6,13510.30%0
Rick Santorum 4,0726.83%0
Uncommitted1,1681.96%0
Unprojected delegates:0
Total:59,578100%25

Official source reports a turnout of 59,639, with the difference from 59,578 likely due to blank ballots.

Key:Suspended campaign prior to contest

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post [13] Safe DNovember 6, 2012
CNN [14] Safe DNovember 6, 2012
The New York Times [15] Safe DNovember 6, 2012
The Washington Post [16] Safe DNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics [17] Solid DNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18] Solid DNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight [19] Solid DNovember 6, 2012

Ballot access

Write-in candidate access:

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Connecticut
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent)905,10958.06%7
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 634,89940.72%0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 12,5800.81%0
Justice Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 5,4870.35%0
Green (Write-in) Jill Stein (Write-in) Cheri Honkala 8630.06%0
American Independent (Write-in) Thomas Hoefling (Write-in) Jonathan D. Ellis 250.00%0
Write-insWrite-ins250.00%0
Socialist Workers (Write-in) James Harris (Write-in) Maura DeLuca 50.00%0
Totals1,558,960100.00%7

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Fairfield 217,29454.85%175,16844.22%3,6680.93%42,12610.63%396,130
Hartford 244,63962.37%143,23836.52%4,3631.11%101,40125.85%392,240
Litchfield 43,85647.45%47,20151.07%1,3701.48%-3,345-3.62%92,427
Middlesex 47,85557.29%34,59141.41%1,0921.30%13,26415.88%83,538
New Haven 218,99860.65%138,36438.32%3,6971.03%80,63422.33%361,059
New London 67,14458.33%46,11940.07%1,8391.60%21,02518.26%115,102
Tolland 39,36655.45%30,45042.89%1,1751.66%8,91612.56%70,991
Windham 25,95755.72%19,76842.43%8631.85%6,18913.29%46,588
Totals905,10958.06%634,89940.72%18,9851.22%270,21017.34%1,558,993
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Gain from Democratic Connecticut County Flips 2012.svg
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Obama won all five congressional districts. [20]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st 63%36% John B. Larson
2nd 56%43% Joe Courtney
3rd 63%36% Rosa DeLauro
4th 55%44% Jim Himes
5th 54%45% Elizabeth Esty

Analysis

Voter demographics

2012 Connecticut presidential election (New York Times) [21]
Demographic subgroupObamaRomney % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 93628
Moderates 564247
Conservatives 198024
Party
Democrats 94641
Republicans 99126
Independents 514632
Age
18–29 years old663013
30–44 years old554424
45–64 years old584143
65 and older544620
Gender
Men514747
Women633653
Marital status
Married544564
Unmarried653336
Race/ethnicity
White 514879
Black 93711
Latino 79206
Education
Never attended college 623741
Some college education603924
College graduate494931
Advanced degree603829
Income
Under $30K732412
$30K-$49K732613
$50K or more534675
$100K or more534646

See also

References

  1. "Connecticut Statement of Vote". CT SoS. Archived from the original on December 7, 2012. Retrieved January 19, 2013.
  2. 1 2 "2012 Connecticut Presidential Results". POLITICO. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  3. "Merrill: No Democratic Presidential Preference Primary in Connecticut, Only Four Candidates for Republican Ballot on April 24th" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 5, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  4. "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission . Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  5. "Merrill Releases Turnout Figure From 2012 Presidential Preference Primary, Romney Wins All 25 Delegates at Stake" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State. April 25, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 6, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2012.
  6. 1 2 Vigdor, Neil (September 28, 2011). "State GOP moves away from winner-take-all presidential primary". GreenwichTime.com. Retrieved April 26, 2012.
  7. "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee Rules and Bylaws" (PDF). September 27, 2011. Section 17. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 12, 2012. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  8. Quinnipiac
  9. Public Policy Polling
  10. Quinnipiac
  11. Public Policy Polling
  12. "Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  13. "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost . Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  14. "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN . Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  15. "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times . Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  16. "2012 Presidential Election Results" . The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  17. "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  18. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  19. "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  20. "Statement of Vote" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut . Archived (PDF) from the original on March 17, 2025. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
  21. "President Exit Polls". The New York Times.