2012 United States Senate election in Texas

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2012 United States Senate election in Texas
Flag of Texas.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout64.8% (of registered voters)
49.7% (voting eligible) [1]
  Ted Cruz, official portrait (cropped).jpg Paul Sadler.JPG
Nominee Ted Cruz Paul Sadler
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote4,440,1373,194,927
Percentage56.46%40.62%
2012 United States Senate election in Texas results map by county.svg
2012 US Senate election in Texas by congressional district.svg
TX SEN 2012.svg
Cruz:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Sadler:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Kay Bailey Hutchison
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Ted Cruz
Republican

The 2012 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2012, along with other elections to the United States Senate the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fourth full term. This was the first open seat in this seat since 1957. [lower-alpha 1]

Contents

Libertarian John Jay Myers was elected by nomination at the Texas Libertarian Party State Convention on June 8, 2012. After the first round of primary voting on May 29, 2012, a runoff was held on July 31, 2012, for both the Democratic Party and Republican Party. Former state representative Paul Sadler and former state solicitor general Ted Cruz respectively won the Democratic and Republican runoffs; Cruz won the general election by a wide margin.

Background

In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, incumbent U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison stated that she would not seek reelection and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for Governor of Texas. [2] After the 2008 elections, Hutchison formed an exploratory committee to run for the governorship in 2010. [3] State Republican Party Chairman Cathie Adams later called upon Hutchison to clarify when she would vacate the Senate so that other Republican candidates could make preparations to run. [4]

On December 4, 2008, Hutchison set up an exploratory committee, setting up a primary battle with incumbent Republican governor Rick Perry. [5] Fellow Texas U.S. Senator and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn tried to convince Hutchison to stay in the Senate, for fear of losing the seat to the Democrats. [6] On January 15, 2009, Hutchison transferred nearly all the money, approximately $8 million, from her federal campaign account to her gubernatorial exploratory committee. [7] On November 13, 2009, Hutchison announced that she would not resign from the Senate seat until after the primary on March 2, 2010. [8]

Hutchison lost the gubernatorial primary to Perry and on March 31, 2010, she announced her intention to serve out her third term. [9] On January 13, 2011, after some discussion about whether she would change her mind, [10] Hutchison announced she would not seek re-election in 2012. [11]

Requirements for nomination

Texas requires a majority for nomination, as well as a second round runoff between the two candidates with the two highest pluralities if none win a majority on the first round. [12] No candidate won a majority in either 2012 major party first round primary, so both parties had a runoff on July 31, 2012.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Ted Cruz
David Dewhurst

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz		David
Dewhurst		Elizabeth
Ames Jones		Craig
James		Tom
Leppert		Lela
Pittenger		Michael
Williams		Roger
Williams		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011400±4.9%3%23%6%6%3%—3%1%55%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 11–17, 2011374±5.07%3%27%2%2%–—5%2%59%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 11–18, 2011388±4.98%2%25%1%1%4%—6%2%59%
Texas Lyceum May 24–31, 2011147±8.08%1%27%2%2%3%—0%4%61%
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011400±4.9%12%41%7%7%6%——6%21%
UoT/Texas Tribune October 19–26, 2011800±4.93%10%22%2%2%5%———41%
Baselice & Associates October 31 – November 2, 2011600±4%6%50%——9%——2%—35%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012559±4.2%18%36%—4%7%1%——3% [58] 31%
UoT/Texas Tribune February 8–15, 2012366±5.12%27%38%—7%7%1%——20% [59] —
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012400±4.9%26%38%—7%8%———22%
DWBS April 27–30, 2012400±4.5%16%51%—2%7%————24%
UoT/Texas Tribune May 2012274±5.92%31%40%—4%17%3%——4% [60] 2%
BOR/People Calling People May 15–16, 2012557±4.2%30%43%—5%14%4%——3% [61] —
Public Policy Polling May 22–23, 2012482±4.5%29%46%—5%15%———2%5%
Hypothetical polling

With Dan Patrick

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz		David
Dewhurst		Elizabeth
Ames Jones		Tom
Leppert		Dan
Patrick		Roger
Williams		OtherUndecided
DWBS +June 4–5, 2011450±4.62%2%—4%11%19%6%—58%
6%———29%——64%
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011400±4.9%11%40%3%5%11%2%2% [62] 26%
  • + Commissioned by Dan Patrick

Results

Republican primary results [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Dewhurst 627,731 44.63
Republican Ted Cruz 480,558 34.16
Republican Tom Leppert187,90013.36
Republican Craig James50,5693.60
Republican Glenn Addison23,1771.65
Republican Lela Pittenger18,1431.29
Republican Ben Gambini7,2250.51
Republican Curt Cleaver6,6710.47
Republican Joe Argis4,6740.33
Total votes1,406,648 100

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz		David
Dewhurst		Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 22–23, 2012482±4.5%34%59%7%
Wenzel Strategies July 10–11, 2012600±4%47%38%14%
Public Policy Polling July 10–11, 2012468±4.5%49%44%7%
Public Policy Polling July 28–29, 2012665±3.8%52%42%6%

Results

Republican runoff results [64]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ted Cruz 631,812 56.82
Republican David Dewhurst480,12643.18
Total votes1,111,938 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Filed

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Addie
Allen		Sean
Hubbard		Paul
Sadler		Grady
Yarbrough		Others
University of Texas/Texas Tribune May 2012234±6.41%22%22%35%12%Don't know (9%)
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Addie
Allen		Daniel
Boone		Sean
Hubbard		John
Morton		Paul
Sadler		Others
University of Texas/Texas Tribune February 8–15, 2012255±6.14%10%10%12%3%10%Other (55%)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Bell		Chet
Edwards		Sylvia
Garcia		Ricardo
Sanchez		John
Sharp		Others
Texas Lyceum May 24–31, 2011103±9.66%9%6%5%6%6%Haven't thought much about it (64%)
University of Texas/Texas Tribune May 11–18, 2011252±6.17%7%11%–14%6%Don't know (63%)
University of Texas, Austin February 11–17, 2011297±5.69%16%13%––12%Don't know (59%)

Results

Democratic primary results [81]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Paul Sadler 174,772 35.13
Democratic Grady Yarbrough 128,746 25.88
Democratic Addie Allen113,93522.90
Democratic Sean Hubbard80,03416.09
Total votes497,487 100

Runoff

Democratic runoff results [82]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Paul Sadler 148,940 63.03
Democratic Grady Yarbrough87,36536.97
Total votes236,305 100

Libertarian Party nomination

The Libertarian Party was qualified for the ballot (based on its 2010 performance at the polls). The Texas Libertarian Party nominated John Jay Myers as its Senate candidate, using approval voting on June 9 at the state convention in Fort Worth. The nominating process followed a two-round debate featuring six candidates for the nomination.

Candidates

Results

Libertarian convention approval vote [85]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian John Jay Myers 97 78.9
Libertarian Scott Jameson2822.8
Libertarian John Roland2721.9
Libertarian Robert Butler1915.4
Libertarian S. Ropal Raju32.4
Libertarian Wayne Huffman21.6
Total votes176 143 [86]
Total ballots1231.431 [86]

Green Party nomination

The Green Party of Texas reported two candidates pre-selected at the June 9 convention: [87] David B. Collins and Victoria Ann Zabaras. Collins was ultimately nominated (official blog).

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Ted Cruz (R)$9,053,212$7,600,914$1,452,297$795,000
Paul Sadler (D)$139,197$108,442$30,753$12,197
John Jay Myers (L)$6,139$547$5,591$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [91] [92] [93]

Top contributors

[94]

Paul SadlerContributionTed CruzContribution
Communications Workers of America $5,000 Club for Growth $659,777
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $5,000 Senate Conservatives Fund $200,549
International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers $5,000 Morgan, Lewis & Bockius $41,600
United Transportation Union $5,000 Goldman Sachs $40,750
Velvin Oil Co$5,000RE Janes Gravel Co$37,500
3-D Secure $2,500 Woodforest National Bank $37,000
American Federation of Teachers $2,500 Jones Day $34,900
Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers $2,500 Bartlit, Beck, Herman, Palenchar & Scott $36,350
Galyean Lp$2,500 Baker Botts $32,313
University of Houston $2,500 Crow Holdings $30,000

Top industries

[95]

Paul SadlerContributionTed CruzContribution
Industrial unions $15,000 Republican/Conservative$825,098
Lawyers/law firms $9,000Lawyers/law firms$551,662
Transportation unions$7,500Retired$437,961
Retired$7,500 Oil and gas $325,850
Public sector unions $2,500 Financial institutions $305,110
Financial institutions$2,500 Real estate $240,300
Education$2,500 Leadership PACs $235,549
Candidate committees$2,000Misc finance$185,700
Lobbyists $1,000 Health professionals $155,880
Civil servants/public officials$500Misc business$148,874

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [96] Solid RNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [97] Safe RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [98] Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [99] Safe RNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Paul
Sadler (D)		John Jay
Myers (L)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%41%31%—28%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%44%34%—22%
Frederick Polling September 2012700±3.7%49%32%6%14%
YouGov September 14, 20121,201±2.8%50%31%—19%
Texas Lyceum September 10–26, 20121,175±2.83%50%24%—26%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15–20, 2012540±4.22%54%39%—7%
Hypothetical polling

with David Dewhurst

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Paul
Sadler (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%49%31%—20%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%49%35%—16%

with Julian Castro

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Julian
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.353%25%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Elizabeth
Ames Jones (R)		Julian
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.348%27%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Julian
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.348%25%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Williams (R)		Julian
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.345%26%—29%

with Chet Edwards

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Chet
Edwards (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%37%33%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Chet
Edwards (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.3%50%31%—19%
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%43%35%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Chet
Edwards (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.3%46%30%—24%
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%39%33%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Elizabeth
Ames Jones (R)		Chet
Edwards (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.3%44%31%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Williams (R)		Chet
Edwards (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.342%31%—27%

with Sean Hubbard

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Sean
Hubbard (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%43%33%—25%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%39%29%—31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Sean
Hubbard (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%50%35%—15%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%48%31%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Craig
James (R)		Sean
Hubbard (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%41%35%—24%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%40%32%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Sean
Hubbard (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%44%34%—22%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%43%22%—26%

with Tommy Lee Jones

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Tommy
Lee Jones (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.537%38%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Tommy
Lee Jones (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.543%39%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Tommy
Lee Jones (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.538%37%—26%

with Paul Sadler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Craig
James (R)		Paul
Sadler (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%40%36%—24%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%42%32%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Paul
Sadler (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012591±4.0%44%33%—22%
Public Policy Polling January 12–15, 2012700±3.7%44%31%—25%

with Ricardo Sanchez

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Ricardo
Sanchez (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%42%31%—27%
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.5%41%32%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Ricardo
Sanchez (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%47%32%—22%
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.5%45%37%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		Ricardo
Sanchez (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 15–18, 2011569±4.1%41%32%—27%
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.5%38%35%—27%

with John Sharp

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Greg
Abbott (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%44%36%—19%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20091,409±2.6%36%28%—36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ted
Cruz (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.540%36%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.543%37%—19%
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.349%31%—19%
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%34%33%—33%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20091,409±2.6%42%36%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Elizabeth
Ames Jones (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.344%30%—26%
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%33%31%—37%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Leppert (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011795±3.539%38%—23%
Public Policy Polling January 14–16, 2011892±3.342%30%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Florence
Shapiro (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%31%32%—37%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20091,409±2.634%37%—29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Roger
Williams (R)		John
Sharp (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%29%33%—38%

with Bill White

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%37%28%—36%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20091,409±2.6%42%36%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Dewhurst (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%38%36%—26%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20091,409±2.6%42%37%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Elizabeth
Ames Jones (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%33%30%—37%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Florence
Shapiro (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%32%31%—37%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]February 18–20, 20111,409±2.637%36%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michael
Williams (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%35%31%—34%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Roger
Williams (R)		Bill
White (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Texas, Austin February 24 – March 6, 2009715±3.66%31%33%—38%

Republican primary (when asked specifically, if Dewhurst were not running)

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Glenn
Addison		Ted
Cruz		Elizabeth
Ames Jones		Tom
Leppert		Dan
Patrick		Lela
Pittenger		Roger
Williams
Public Policy Polling June 25–27, 2011400±4.9%4%16%11%12%13%0%3%

Results

2012 United States Senate election in Texas [100]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ted Cruz 4,440,137 56.46% -5.23%
Democratic Paul Sadler 3,194,92740.62%+4.58%
Libertarian John Jay Myers162,3542.06%-0.20%
Green David Collins67,4040.86%N/A
Total votes7,864,822 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Cruz won 25 of 36 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [101]

DistrictCruzSadlerRepresentative
1st 67.74%30.55% Louie Gohmert
2nd 62.92%34.35% Ted Poe
3rd 63.52%33.52% Sam Johnson
4th 69.79%27.6% Ralph Hall
5th 62.41%35.41% Jeb Hensarling
6th 57.16%40.12% Joe Barton
7th 59.63%37.73% John Culberson
8th 75.64%21.88% Kevin Brady
9th 21.91%76.35% Al Green
10th 57.76%38.76% Michael McCaul
11th 77.32%19.92% Mike Conaway
12th 65.74%31.22% Kay Granger
13th 78.17%19.12% Mac Thornberry
14th 57.98%39.8% Randy Weber
15th 42.74%54.55% Rubén Hinojosa
16th 37.02%59.66% Beto O'Rourke
17th 59.36%37.24% Bill Flores
18th 23.51%74.37% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 72.65%24.37% Randy Neugebauer
20th 39.33%57.47% Joaquín Castro
21st 59.38%37.32% Lamar Smith
22nd 62.02%35.74% Pete Olson
23rd 51.67%45.28% Pete Gallego
24th 59.97%36.88% Kenny Marchant
25th 58.07%37.79% Roger Williams
26th 66.74%29.66% Michael Burgess
27th 59.12%38.11% Blake Farenthold
28th 41.5%55.14% Henry Cuellar
29th 34.47%63.27% Gene Green
30th 20.58%77.58% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 58.13%37.46% John Carter
32nd 56.03%41.03% Pete Sessions
33rd 28.71%68.96% Marc Veasey
34th 41.71%55.23% Filemon Vela Jr.
35th 34.14%61.38% Lloyd Doggett
36th 71.03%26.66% Steve Stockman

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Ralph Yarborough ran for reelection to a third full term in 1970, but lost in the Democratic primary to Lloyd Bentsen.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Texas</span>

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  58. ↑ Joe Agris 2%, Glenn Addison 1%, Charles Holcomb 0%
  59. ↑ Glenn Addison 1%, Curt Cleaver 0%, Charles Holcomb 0%, Other 19%
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  62. ↑ Glenn Addison 2%, Lela Pittenger 0%
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  86. 1 2 Note: percentages add up to 143.1%, which corresponds to an average of 1.431 approval votes per ballot.
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