2024 Texas Senate election

Last updated

2024 Texas Senate election
Flag of Texas.svg
  2022 November 5, 20242026 

15 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate
16 seats needed for a majority
 Majority partyMinority party
  Angela Paxton (53805316919) (cropped).jpg Texas State Senator Carol Alvarado.png
Leader Angela Paxton Carol Alvarado
Party Republican Democratic
Leader sinceSeptember 16, 2023January 8, 2020
Leader's seat 8th McKinney 6th Houston
Last election19 seats, 54.06%12 seats, 41.94%
Seats after2011
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote2,196,0042,678,156
Percentage45.00%54.88%
SwingDecrease2.svg 9.06%Increase2.svg 12.94%

2024 Texas State Senate election.svg
2024 Texas State Senate election voteshares.svg
     Republican hold     Republican gain
     Democratic hold
     No election
Republican:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Democratic:     60–70%     ≥90%

Majority Leader before election

Angela Paxton
Republican

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections to the Texas Senate will be held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections will also be held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections. Republicans won eight of the fifteen seats up for election, flipping one from the Democrats. Due to the high number of uncontested seats, however, Democratic candidates received more votes statewide than Republican candidates.

Contents

Primary elections were held on March 5, 2024, and any necessary runoffs were held on May 28. [1]

Background

Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to a 19–12 margin in the 2022 elections, picking up a seat anchored in Tarrant County that had been redrawn to significantly favor them but failing to win a competitive seat in the Rio Grande Valley. [2]

During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students. [3] [4] [5] Republican infighting in the House led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session despite the Senate easily passing it. Governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed. [6] Efforts to legalize online sports betting and casino gambling found a resurgence in the House late in the session, with a bill to legalize online sports betting passing the House. [7] Neither proposal received any hearings in the Senate due to opposition from lieutenant governor Dan Patrick. [8] [9]

On May 27, 2023, the House voted 121–23 to impeach attorney general Ken Paxton after a House committee found that he had used taxpayer funds to settle a legal dispute. [10] [11] [12] The Senate voted to acquit him of all charges in September 2023. [13]

Retirements

One incumbent will not seek re-election.

Republicans

  1. District 30: Drew Springer is retiring. [14]

Incumbents defeated

In the general election

Democrats

  1. District 27: Morgan LaMantia lost to Adam Hinojosa. [15]

Special elections

  1. District 15: John Whitmire (D) was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from the Senate on December 31, 2023. [16] Molly Cook won the special election held on May 4, 2024. [17] [18]
Texas's 15th State Senate District Special Election, 2024 [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Molly Cook 9,370 57.06%
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 7,05242.94%
Total votes16,422 100.0%
Democratic hold

Campaign

Democrat Nathan Johnson was the only incumbent senator being challenged in the primary elections. [20] Republican Drew Springer's retirement and Democrat John Whitmire's resignation created open races for their seats. [14] [16] Democrat Morgan LaMantia was the only senator expected to face a competitive general election. [21]

Predictions

Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.

Statewide

SourceRankingAs of
CNalysis [22] Solid RAugust 6, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Safe RJune 18, 2024

Competitive districts

District IncumbentLast Result [24] CNalysis [a]
Oct. 21, 2024 [25]
Result
27th Morgan LaMantia 50.18% DTilt R (flip)49.38% R (flip)

Summary of results by district

† - Incumbent not seeking re-election

State Senate District Incumbent PartyElected SenatorParty
6th Carol Alvarado Dem Carol Alvarado Dem
7th Paul Bettencourt Rep Paul Bettencourt Rep
8th Angela Paxton Rep Angela Paxton Rep
10th Phil King Rep Phil King Rep
12th Tan Parker Rep Tan Parker Rep
14th Sarah Eckhardt Dem Sarah Eckhardt Dem
15th Molly Cook [b] Dem Molly Cook Dem
16th Nathan M. Johnson Dem Nathan M. Johnson Dem
17th Joan Huffman Rep Joan Huffman Rep
20th Juan Hinojosa Dem Juan Hinojosa Dem
23rd Royce West Dem Royce West Dem
25th Donna Campbell Rep Donna Campbell Rep
27th Morgan LaMantia Dem Adam Hinojosa Rep
29th Cesar Blanco Dem Cesar Blanco Dem
30th Drew SpringerRep Brent Hagenbuch Rep

Detailed results

District 6District 7District 8District 10District 12District 14District 15District 16District 17District 20District 23District 25District 27District 29District 30

District 6

Incumbent Democrat Carol Alvarado is running for re-election.

District 6 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Carol Alvarado (incumbent) 20,759 100.00%
Total votes20,759 100.00%
District 6 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Martha Fierro 10,542 100.00%
Total votes10,542 100.00%
District 6 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Carol Alvarado (incumbent) 119,280 63.01%
Republican Martha Fierro70,01336.99%
Total votes189,293 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 7

Incumbent Republican Paul Bettencourt is running for re-election.

District 7 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul Bettencourt (incumbent) 62,230 100.00%
Total votes62,230 100.00%
District 7 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michelle Gwinn 12,707 55.66%
Democratic Nasir Malik10,12244.34%
Total votes22,829 100.00%
District 7 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul Bettencourt (incumbent) 251,489 63.41%
Democratic Michelle Gwinn145,10036.59%
Total votes396,589 100.00%
Republican hold

District 8

Incumbent Republican Angela Paxton is running for re-election.

District 8 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Angela Paxton (incumbent) 68,007 100.00%
Total votes68,007 100.00%
District 8 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Rachel Mello 23,078 100.00%
Total votes23,078 100.00%
District 8 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Angela Paxton (incumbent) 269,743 59.36%
Democratic Rachel Mello184,64240.64%
Total votes454,385 100.00%
Republican hold

District 10

Incumbent Republican Phil King is running for re-election.

District 10 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil King (incumbent) 71,277 100.00%
Total votes71,277 100.00%
District 10 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Andy Morris 24,306 100.00%
Total votes24,306 100.00%
District 10 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil King (incumbent) 227,475 61.71%
Democratic Andy Morris141,16338.29%
Total votes368,638 100.00%
Republican hold

District 12

Incumbent Republican Tan Parker is running for re-election.

District 12 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tan Parker (incumbent) 83,322 100.00%
Total votes83,322 100.00%
District 12 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Stephanie Draper 29,671 100.00%
Total votes29,671 100.00%
District 12 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tan Parker (incumbent) 277,734 61.36%
Democratic Stephanie Draper174,87538.64%
Total votes452,609 100.00%
Republican hold

District 14

Incumbent Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is running for re-election unopposed.

District 14 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sarah Eckhardt (incumbent) 64,908 100.00%
Total votes64,908 100.00%
District 14 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sarah Eckhardt (incumbent) 321,035 100.00%
Total votes321,035 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 15

Former Senator, Democrat John Whitmire was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from this seat, creating a vacancy. [16] A special election to fill his unexpired term was held on May 4, 2024, with Molly Cook winning. [17] Cook narrowly won the Democratic primary runoff for a full term on May 28. [26]

District 15 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 17,953 36.19%
Democratic Molly Cook 10,213 20.59%
Democratic Todd Litton7,85915.84%
Democratic Michelle Anderson Bonton5,29110.67%
Democratic Alberto "Beto" Cardenas5,19610.48%
Democratic Karthik Soora3,0916.23%
Total votes49,603 100.00%
District 15 Democratic primary runoff
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Molly Cook (incumbent) 9,506 50.16%
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 9,44449.84%
Total votes18,782 100.00%
District 15 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joseph L. Trahan 23,627 100.00%
Total votes23,627 100.00%
District 15 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Molly Cook (incumbent) 200,680 61.90%
Republican Joseph L. Trahan123,51538.10%
Total votes324,195 100.00%
Democratic hold


District 16

Incumbent Democrat Nathan M. Johnson is running for re-election. He defeated state representative Victoria Neave in the Democratic primary and is unopposed in the general election. [20]

District 16 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Nathan M. Johnson (incumbent) 19,734 59.19%
Democratic Victoria Neave 13,60440.81%
Total votes33,338 100.00%
District 16 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Nathan M. Johnson (incumbent) 187,557 100.00%
Total votes187,557 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 17

Incumbent Republican Joan Huffman is running for re-election.

District 17 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joan Huffman (incumbent) 70,144 100.00%
Total votes70,144 100.00%
District 17 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kathy Cheng 21,812 100.00%
Total votes21,812 100.00%
District 17 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joan Huffman (incumbent) 238,328 64.16%
Democratic Kathy Cheng133,12735.84%
Total votes371,455 100.00%
Republican hold

District 20

Incumbent Democrat Juan Hinojosa is running for re-election unopposed.

District 20 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Juan Hinojosa (incumbent) 33,481 100.00%
Total votes33,481 100.00%
District 20 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Juan Hinojosa (incumbent) 178,987 100.00%
Total votes178,987 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 23

Incumbent Democrat Royce West is running for re-election unopposed.

District 23 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Royce West (incumbent) 54,893 100.00%
Total votes54,893 100.00%
District 23 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Royce West (incumbent) 253,413 100.00%
Total votes253,413 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 25

Incumbent Republican Donna Campbell is running for re-election.

District 25 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Donna Campbell (incumbent) 93,986 100.00%
Total votes93,986 100.00%
District 25 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Merrie Fox 31,717 100.00%
Total votes31,717 100.00%
District 25 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Donna Campbell (incumbent) 321,653 63.57%
Democratic Merrie Fox184,31236.43%
Total votes505,965 100.00%
Republican hold

District 27

Incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia is running for re-election. She faces a rematch against Republican Adam Hinojosa, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022. [27] [28] This race is the only one in the state expected to have a competitive general election. [21] Hinojosa has been endorsed by former Democratic senator Eddie Lucio Jr., who held the seat before LaMantia, citing Hinojosa's pro-life position on abortion. [29]

District 27 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Morgan LaMantia (incumbent) 29,903 100.00%
Total votes29,903 100.00%
District 27 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Adam Hinojosa 31,331 100.00%
Total votes31,331 100.00%
District 27 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Adam Hinojosa 126,073 49.38%
Democratic Morgan LaMantia (incumbent)123,30548.29%
Green Hunter Crow5,9562.33%
Total votes255,334 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 29

Incumbent Democrat Cesar Blanco is running for re-election unopposed.

District 29 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Cesar Blanco (incumbent) 33,079 100.00%
Total votes33,079 100.00%
District 29 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Cesar Blanco (incumbent) 174,731 100.00%
Total votes174,731 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 30

Incumbent Republican Drew Springer is retiring. [14]

District 30 Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 35,262 36.38%
Republican Jace Yarbrough 32,899 33.94%
Republican Carrie de Moor17,06917.61%
Republican Cody Clark11,70412.07%
Total votes96,934 100.00%
District 30 Republican primary runoff
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 18,779 56.65%
Republican Jace Yarbrough14,36843.35%
Total votes33,147 100.00%
District 30 Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michael Braxton 7,833 37.72%
Democratic Dale Frey 6,856 33.02%
Democratic Matthew McGhee6,07729.26%
Total votes20,766 100.00%
District 30 Democratic primary runoff
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Dale Frey 1,737 56.99%
Democratic Michael Braxton1,31143.01%
Total votes3,048 100.00%
District 30 election
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 289,981 65.03%
Democratic Dale Frey155,94934.97%
Total votes445,930 100.00%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. CNalysis has two separate sets of predictions: Classic (Analyst ratings only), and Expanded (Classic alongside recent statewide election results). This table uses the Classic set.
  2. Elected in a May 4, 2024, special election to fill incumbent vacancy left by Democrat John Whitmire, who resigned to become Mayor of Houston on December 31, 2023.

See also

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