2024 California Proposition 32

Last updated

Proposition 32
Flag of California.svg
Raises Minimum Wage. Initiative Statute.
Results
Choice
Votes %
Check-71-128-204-brightblue.svg Yes7,469,80349.29%
Light brown x.svg No7,686,12650.71%
Valid votes15,155,929100.00%
Invalid or blank votes00.00%
Total votes15,155,929100.00%
Registered voters/turnout22,595,65967.07%
2024 California Proposition 32 results map by county.svg
Results map as of 13 November 2024
California Secretary of State [1]

Proposition 32 was a California ballot proposition that was voted on as part of the 2024 California elections on November 5. It was ultimately rejected, with 50.7% of voters voting 'no', [1] but the results remained too close to call for several weeks after election day; [2] the Associated Press called the race on November 20 and CNN had called the race by December 12. [3] [4] If it had passed, the proposition would have enacted the Living Wage Act of 2022 which would have increased the state's minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2025 and adjusted it every year to reduce the impact of inflation.

Contents

Background

US states can set their own minimum wages if they choose to do so, with the federal minimum wage being used if a minimum wage is not set or if it is set below the federal level. [5] In California, the state minimum wage as of January 1, 2024 was $16 per hour. [6] [note 1] As of July 2024, California had the highest minimum wage of any state and was the highest in the country except for some part of New York (which also have a $16/hour minimum wage) and the District of Columbia (which has a minimum wage of $17.50/hour). [9] Despite this, California's minimum wage "lags far behind the state's prices"; as of October 2024, the statewide living wage is $27.32 per hour. [10]

The federal minimum wage has remained $7.25/hour since 2009, leading to a movement for a $15 minimum wage during the 2010s. [11] Due to high inflation in the early 2020s and stalemate at the federal level, more focus has been placed on increasing state minimum wages. [12]

2022 proposition attempt

The proposition was initially set to be included in the 2022 California elections, but was delayed after the California Secretary of State announced that not enough signatures had been verified for it to qualify. [13] Propositions needed 700,000 signatures to be on the ballot; [12] although the campaign said it had gathered 1,000,000 signatures, because it only submitted them in May, not all the signatures could be verified by the June 30 deadline. [14] Joe Sanberg, the proposition's filer, [15] filed a court case to have the proposition put on the ballot, but this was rejected in July 2022 with the proposition instead confirmed for the 2024 elections. [14]

Campaign

Politico reported in April 2024 that the proposition had been "met so far with shrugs" from unions and business interest groups predominantly because piecemeal industry-by-industry increases to the minimum wage had meant that "it is hard to find anyone who wants to fight over $18". [16]

A survey by the University of Southern California found that people from households earning under $50,000 a year were most likely to support the proposition, and those from households earning over $100,000 were most likely to oppose it. [15]

Support

Many supporters focused on the rising cost of living. In its endorsement, The Sacramento Bee said it was not ignoring "the concerns of business leaders" but that "too many workers can't afford to live on their wages". [17] The Mercury News and East Bay Times joint endorsement highlighted that $18 is "still not a living wage" for workers in California and "certainly not in the Bay Area." [18]

Proponents disputed the idea that higher minimum wages cause job losses. The Los Angeles Times argued that "higher wages actually make it easier for employers to fill job vacancies and retain workers" and that Proposition 32 was "a reasonable and narrow measure" that focuses on those who "are most in need of a boost". [19] A study from UC Berkeley found that California's increase to a $15 minimum wage had "no significant" effect on unemployment levels. [20] [21]

Saru Jayaraman, president of One Fair Wage, said that opposition campaigning had scared some voters, but that "[n]one of the doom and gloom that they predicted turned out to be true" in the case of the increased minimum wage for fast food workers. [22]

Funding

Joe Sanberg was a major donor to the proposition during the 2022 cycle, spending $10 million to get it on the ballot. [16] In April 2024, Politico reported that Sanberg had "not raised a dime for the effort in months" and said he was "banking on the inherent appeal" of a higher minimum wage. [16]

In the 2024 cycle, as of 5 November 2024, $948,000 had been raised in support of the proposition. [21] Almost all of this was by Kevin de León, who had raised more than $800,000. [21]

Endorsements

'Yes'

Statewide officials

State legislators

Municipal and local officials

Newspapers

Organisations

Individuals

Opposition

Opponents argued that a higher minimum wage would lead to increased prices. The San Diego Union-Tribune called on voters to use the proposition "as a referendum on how California is being governed" and argued that "[j]ust as Trumpian tariffs make life more expensive, so do mandatory wage hikes". [44]

High unemployment was also a concern. The Press-Telegram warned that approving Proposition 32 would "make many low-skill workers unemployable". [45] Opponents highlighted surveys commissed by the city of West Hollywood, which had implemented a local minimum wage of $19.08/hour, found that 42% of responding businesses had laid off workers or reduced hours due to higher wages. [21]

Funding

By early October, the opposition campaign had raised $65,000. [15] The California Growers Association and California Chamber of Commerce had contributed $15,000 each; the California Retailers Association, the National Federation of Independent Business and the Western Growers Service Corporation donated $10,000 each; and the California Restaurant Association had contributed $5,000. [15]

As of 5 November 2024, $855,000 had been raised in opposition to the measure. [21] The largest donor was Western Growers Issues PAC, a political action committee, which had spent $250,000. [21]

Endorsements

Neutral/No endorsement

Polling

On Proposition 32

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [note 5] 		Margin
of error		YesNoUndecided
Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies October 22–28, 20244341 (LV)± 2%47%39%14%
Public Policy Institute of California October 7–15, 20241137 (LV)± 3.7%44%54%2%
Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies September 25–October 1, 20243045 (LV)± 2.5%46%36%18%
Public Policy Institute of California August 29–September 9, 20241071 (LV)± 3.7%50%49%1%
Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies July 31–August 11, 20243765 (LV)± 2%52%34%14%

On an $18 minimum wage

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [note 5] 		Margin
of error		FavorOpposeUndecided
Public Policy Institute of California [note 6] October 3–19, 20231389 (LV)± 4%67%31%2%

Results

The election was initially characterised as being too close to call, [2] [55] with Politico reporting on 11 November that five million votes remained uncounted mostly in Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Los Angeles counties. [2] The Associated Press called the election on 20 November, projecting that the proposition had failed. [3] By 12 December, CNN had also called the race. [4]

The official results tallies were released on 13 December 2024 by Shirley Weber, California's Secretary of State. They showed that the proposition had failed, with 7,686,126 people voting no and 7,469,803 people voting yes. [1] The proposition was the first statewide ballot measure raising the minimum wage in the U.S. to be rejected since 1996. [56]

Proposition 32
ChoiceVotes %
Light brown x.svg No7,686,12650.71
Yes7,469,80349.29
Total votes15,155,929100.00
Registered voters/turnout22,595,65967.07
Source: [1]

Notes

  1. ↑ Some types of worker have a higher minimum wage in California. From April 1, 2024, fast food workers had a minimum wage of $20 per hour [7] and from October 16, 2024, certain healthcare workers had a minimum wage of between $18 and $23. [8]
  2. ↑ Since Bonta writes the ballot titles and summaries in his role as state attorney general, he "doesn't weigh in on most state propositions". [23]
  3. 1 2 3 4 Politico recorded this organisation as "not saying" on Proposition 32 [28]
  4. ↑ Equality California did not release an endorsement for Proposition 32 [54]
  5. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ↑ The question put to respondents was "Do you favor or oppose a policy that would increase the current minimum wage from $15 per hour to $16 in 2024 and subsequently by $1 each year until it reaches $18?"

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 "Statement of Vote - General Election, November 5, 2024" (PDF). California Secretary of State . Retrieved December 15, 2024.
  2. 1 2 3 Will McCarthy; Emily Schultheis (November 11, 2024). "Why Props 32 and 34 still hang in the balance". Politico . Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  3. 1 2 "California voters reject measure that would have raised minimum wage to nation-high $18 per hour". Associated Press . November 20, 2024. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  4. 1 2 "Proposition 32: California General Election Results". CNN Politics . Archived from the original on December 15, 2024. Retrieved November 24, 2024.
  5. ↑ "State Minimum Wages". National Conference of State Legislatures . July 1, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Minimum Wage Frequently Asked Questions". California Department of Industrial Relations . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Fast Food Minimum Wage Frequently Asked Questions". California Department of Industrial Relations . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Health Care Worker Minimum Wage Frequently Asked Questions". California Department of Industrial Relations . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  9. ↑ "State Minimum Wage Laws". US Department of Labor . July 1, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  10. ↑ Will McCarthy; Emily Schultheis (October 16, 2024). "Your Guide to California's 2024 Ballot Measures". Politico . Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  11. ↑ Steven Greenhouse (November 23, 2022). "'The success is inspirational': the Fight for $15 movement 10 years on". The Guardian . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  12. 1 2 Carmen Reinicke (February 17, 2022). "A petition for an $18 minimum wage is gaining signatures in California. What that means for the hourly worker". CNBC . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  13. ↑ Jeanne Kuang (July 1, 2022). "Proposal to boost state minimum wage to $18 won't go on ballot". CalMatters . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  14. 1 2 Jeanne Kuang (July 22, 2022). "Want to vote on raising California's minimum wage? Judge says not until 2024". CalMatters . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  15. 1 2 3 4 Ethan Baron (October 9, 2024). "Would Prop. 32's $18 minimum wage cost California jobs or lead to higher prices?". The San Bernardino Sun . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  16. 1 2 3 Jeremy B. White (April 12, 2024). "How California made the minimum wage obsolete". Politico . Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  17. 1 2 "Inflation has a massive lead over wages. Could California's Prop 32 close the gap? - Opinion". The Sacramento Bee . October 10, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  18. 1 2 "Editorial: California voters should OK modest minimum-wage increase". The Mercury News . October 5, 2024. Retrieved October 18, 2024.
  19. 1 2 "Endorsement: Yes on Proposition 32. California's minimum wage needs a boost". Los Angeles Times . October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  20. ↑ Carl McPherson; Michael Reich; Justin C. Wiltshire (September 12, 2022). "Working Papers: Are $15 Minimum Wages Too High?". UC Berkeley Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. Retrieved October 18, 2024.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Ibarra, Ana B. (July 31, 2024). "2024 Voter Guide: Raise state minimum wage to $18 an hour". CalMatters . Retrieved October 18, 2024.
  22. ↑ Farida Jhabvala Romero (October 25, 2024). "California Minimum Wage Voter Support Falters as Inflation Worries Linger". KQED . Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dustin Gardiner; Christopher Cadelago; Lara Korte (September 10, 2024). "2026 governor field mum on ballot fights". Politico . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Dan Kalb's November 2024 Ballot Recommendations". Dan Kalb. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Editorial: Yes on 3, and other recommendations". Bay Area Reporter . September 4, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Prop 32 endorsement: When wages aren't enough to survive in California's cheapest county, something has to change". San Francisco Chronicle . September 19, 2024. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  27. ↑ "November 5, 2024 General Election ALICE ENDORSES". Alice B. Toklas LGBTQ Democratic Club . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 Emily Schultheis; Will McCarthy (October 16, 2024). "The shifting shapes of this year's California ballot-measure coalitions". Politico . Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  29. ↑ "2024 General Election Endorsements" (PDF). California Democratic Party . August 12, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  30. ↑ "Endorsements". California Faculty Association . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  31. ↑ "Labor 2024 General Election Endorsements". California Federation of Labor Unions. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  32. ↑ "CFT Endorsements General Election 2024 - Tuesday, November 5" (PDF). California Federation of Teachers . September 18, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  33. ↑ "CSUEU Endorsements NOV. 5, 2024 General Election". California State University Employees Union . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  34. ↑ "2024 Initiative Recommendations". California Teachers Association . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  35. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". California Young Democrats. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  36. ↑ "DSA Los Angeles General Election 2024 Voter Guide" (PDF). Los Angeles Democratic Socialists of America. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  37. ↑ "Endorsements NOVEMBER 2024". Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  38. ↑ "Recommendation on Prop 32 (2024)". League of Women Voters of California . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  39. ↑ "California Endorsements". National Nurses United . March 22, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  40. 1 2 "Yes on 32! ENDORSEMENTS". Living Wage Act. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  41. ↑ "Ballot props: PFP endorsements on 5, 6, 32, 35, 36". Peace and Freedom Party . October 5, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  42. ↑ "2024 ELECTIONS". SEIU California . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  43. ↑ "CALIFORNIA". UAW Endorsements . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  44. 1 2 "Endorsement: Unless you like California status quo, reject Prop. 32". The San Diego Union-Tribune . October 17, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  45. 1 2 "Endorsement: No on Proposition 32. Minimum wage mandates are the wrong way to make California more affordable". Press-Telegram . September 3, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  46. ↑ "2024 Voting Guide". LaMalfa for U.S. Representative. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  47. ↑ "McClintock on the Propositions – General Election 2024". McClintock for Congress. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  48. ↑ "Our View: Vote NO on Proposition 32, raising California's minimum wage". The Bakersfield Californian . September 15, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  49. 1 2 "No on Proposition 32". California Restaurant Association. September 23, 2024. Retrieved October 18, 2024.
  50. ↑ "Endorsement: No on Proposition 32. Minimum wage mandates are the wrong way to make California more affordable". Los Angeles Daily News . September 3, 2024. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
  51. ↑ "Endorsement: No on Proposition 32. Minimum wage mandates are the wrong way to make California more affordable". The Orange County Register . September 3, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  52. ↑ "Endorsement: No on Proposition 32. Minimum wage mandates are the wrong way to make California more affordable". Redlands Daily Facts . September 3, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  53. ↑ "11/5/24 Endorsements". San Francisco Chinese American Democratic Club. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  54. ↑ "Election Center - Current Endorsements". Equality California . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  55. ↑ Mackenzie Mays (November 5, 2024). "Prop. 32, measure to increase minimum wage to $18 an hour, trails in early polls". Los Angeles Times . Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  56. ↑ Edelman, Adam (November 20, 2024). "California voters reject ballot measure to increase the state's minimum wage". NBC News . Archived from the original on November 22, 2024. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
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