2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,336,230700,921
Percentage64.55%33.86%
Kentucky Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
KY-24-pres-districts.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]

Contents

A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Trump's 64.5% vote share and 30.7% margin of victory were the best of any Republican in the state's history.

Background

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee. [2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. [3] Biden's withdrawal from the race made him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Former Republican President Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020. [4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 21, 2024 [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)131,44971.33%4343
Uncommitted 32,90817.86%88
Marianne Williamson 11,1906.07%0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)8,7444.74%0
Total:184,291100.00%53659

Republican primary

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Kentucky Republican primary, May 21, 2024 [6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 215,04485.0%4646
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)16,2326.4%
Uncommitted 8,9843.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,8033.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)2,4611.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,6400.7%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)9000.4%
Total:253,064100.0%4646

General election

Candidates

The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot: [7]

Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote. [8]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [9] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12] Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [13] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [14] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [15] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [16] Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP [17] Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [18] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–60%35%5%
Emerson College [20] October 1–3, 2023450 (RV)± 4.6%55%26%19%
Public Policy Polling (D) [21] August 9–10, 2023737 (V)–55%34%11%
co/efficient (R) [22] May 18–19, 2023987 (LV)± 3.1%57%33%10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–52%35%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [A] April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–61%29%10%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
1,336,230 64.55% +2.50%
Democratic
700,92133.86%–2.23%
Independent
16,7530.81%N/A
Kentucky
7,5380.36%+0.33%
Libertarian
6,4090.31%–0.92%
Independent
1,0140.05%N/A
American Solidarity
6100.03%+0.01%
Socialism and Liberation
3900.02%+0.02%
Independent
1740.01%N/A
Independent
  • Jay Bowman (write-in)
  • De Bowman (write-in)
31<0.01%N/A
Independent
14<0.01%N/A
Socialist Equality
8<0.01%N/A
Independent
  • John Cheng (write-in)
  • Wayne Waligorski (write-in)
4<0.01%N/A
Independent
  • Billy Kelly (write-in)
  • Jason Holderman (write-in)
4<0.01%N/A
Independent
  • Cherunda Fox (write-in)
  • Harlan McVay (write-in)
1<0.01%N/A
Total votes2,070,101 100.00%
Swing by county: Republican -- +0-2.5% Republican -- +2.5-5% Republican -- +5-7.5% Republican -- +7.5-10% Republican -- +10-12.5% 2024 Presidential Kentucky County Swings.svg
Swing by county:
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair 7,64385.17%1,25714.01%740.82%6,38671.16%8,974
Allen 7,82483.07%1,50515.98%890.94%6,31967.09%9,418
Anderson 9,65073.69%3,22624.64%2191.67%6,42449.06%13,095
Ballard 3,33181.48%69717.05%601.47%2,63464.43%4,088
Barren 15,01975.85%4,56523.05%2181.10%10,45452.79%19,802
Bath 4,04174.99%1,27823.71%701.30%2,76351.27%5,389
Bell 7,83183.84%1,41915.19%900.96%6,41268.65%9,340
Boone 45,65067.71%20,60130.56%1,1701.74%25,04937.15%67,421
Bourbon 6,28465.89%3,08832.38%1651.73%3,19633.51%9,537
Boyd 14,36368.56%6,29130.03%2971.42%8,07238.53%20,951
Boyle 9,15963.72%4,99034.72%2241.56%4,16929.01%14,373
Bracken 3,39981.84%70216.90%521.25%2,69764.94%4,153
Breathitt 4,03678.94%1,00219.60%751.47%3,03459.34%5,113
Breckinridge 7,88278.44%2,03820.28%1281.27%5,84458.16%10,048
Bullitt 32,29974.75%10,28023.79%6301.46%22,01950.96%43,209
Butler 4,90582.53%96516.24%731.23%3,94066.30%5,943
Caldwell 4,86078.54%1,25620.30%721.16%3,60458.24%6,188
Calloway 11,53968.10%5,11130.16%2951.74%6,42837.93%16,945
Campbell 28,45058.86%18,95239.21%9321.93%9,49819.65%48,334
Carlisle 2,18283.60%40815.63%200.77%1,77467.97%2,610
Carroll 3,01474.88%96323.93%481.19%2,05150.96%4,025
Carter 8,98178.63%2,30520.18%1361.19%6,67658.45%11,422
Casey 6,21687.80%80411.36%600.85%5,41276.44%7,080
Christian 14,33266.13%7,05532.56%2841.31%7,27733.58%21,671
Clark 11,95066.82%5,63931.53%2961.66%6,31135.29%17,885
Clay 6,72989.52%6929.21%961.28%6,03780.31%7,517
Clinton 4,27687.62%54911.25%551.13%3,72776.37%4,880
Crittenden 3,34983.52%60815.16%531.32%2,74168.35%4,010
Cumberland 2,92284.89%48314.03%371.07%2,43970.86%3,442
Daviess 30,70565.20%15,67333.28%7191.53%15,03231.92%47,097
Edmonson 5,04880.81%1,11817.90%811.30%3,93062.91%6,247
Elliott 2,33580.21%53218.28%441.51%1,80361.94%2,911
Estill 5,09180.94%1,11417.71%851.35%3,97763.23%6,290
Fayette 56,27040.28%80,30157.48%3,1402.25%-24,031-17.20%139,711
Fleming 5,57879.69%1,33419.06%881.26%4,24460.63%7,000
Floyd 12,32678.75%3,06119.56%2651.69%9,26559.19%15,652
Franklin 13,24651.41%11,99646.56%5212.02%1,2504.85%25,763
Fulton 1,49169.51%63629.65%180.84%85539.86%2,145
Gallatin 3,10979.37%76119.43%471.20%2,34859.94%3,917
Garrard 7,08679.47%1,71919.28%1121.26%5,36760.19%8,917
Grant 9,37281.72%1,94416.95%1531.33%7,42864.77%11,469
Graves 13,37880.21%3,10518.62%1951.17%10,27361.60%16,678
Grayson 9,71080.28%2,23518.48%1501.24%7,47561.80%12,095
Green 5,03385.93%78213.35%420.72%4,25172.58%5,857
Greenup 12,96174.60%4,18124.06%2321.34%8,78050.54%17,374
Hancock 3,37572.85%1,17325.32%851.83%2,20247.53%4,633
Hardin 30,67263.79%16,57234.47%8381.74%14,10029.32%48,082
Harlan 9,10987.69%1,19911.54%800.77%7,91076.15%10,388
Harrison 6,63973.62%2,26525.12%1141.26%4,37448.50%9,018
Hart 6,69179.57%1,64219.53%760.90%5,04960.04%8,409
Henderson 12,59263.96%6,83734.73%2591.32%5,75529.23%19,688
Henry 6,09375.46%1,85723.00%1241.54%4,23652.46%8,074
Hickman 1,65680.04%39419.04%190.92%1,26261.00%2,069
Hopkins 15,17474.71%4,88024.03%2571.27%10,29450.68%20,311
Jackson 5,35890.29%5068.53%701.18%4,85281.77%5,934
Jefferson 144,55340.82%203,07057.35%6,4711.83%-58,517-16.53%354,094
Jessamine 17,85466.91%8,30331.11%5281.98%9,55135.79%26,685
Johnson 8,15084.70%1,35014.03%1221.27%6,80070.67%9,622
Kenton 48,44459.85%30,85938.12%1,6452.03%17,58521.72%80,948
Knott 4,73278.83%1,18119.67%901.50%3,55159.15%6,003
Knox 11,17884.97%1,82113.84%1571.19%9,35771.12%13,156
LaRue 5,77379.53%1,38919.13%971.34%4,38460.39%7,259
Laurel 23,51684.33%4,03714.48%3341.20%19,47969.85%27,887
Lawrence 5,46483.12%1,04415.88%661.00%4,42067.23%6,574
Lee 2,22782.79%40615.09%572.12%1,82167.70%2,690
Leslie 3,90889.69%3828.77%671.54%3,52680.93%4,357
Letcher 6,84881.02%1,45717.24%1471.74%5,39163.78%8,452
Lewis 4,99787.34%66611.64%581.01%4,33175.70%5,721
Lincoln 8,83380.05%2,08018.85%1211.10%6,75361.20%11,034
Livingston 4,02180.87%88617.82%651.31%3,13563.05%4,972
Logan 9,62076.89%2,73421.85%1571.25%6,88655.04%12,511
Lyon 3,18776.12%95022.69%501.19%2,23753.43%4,187
McCracken 21,34966.83%10,19131.90%4071.27%11,15834.93%31,947
McCreary 5,53189.04%64110.32%400.64%4,89078.72%6,212
McLean 3,57877.21%98921.34%671.45%2,58955.87%4,634
Madison 29,13064.46%15,18033.59%8781.94%13,95030.87%45,188
Magoffin 4,28881.30%90917.24%771.46%3,37964.07%5,274
Marion 6,47371.12%2,51327.61%1161.27%3,96043.51%9,102
Marshall 13,67777.70%3,70021.02%2251.28%9,97756.68%17,602
Martin 3,34391.46%2877.85%250.68%3,05683.61%3,655
Mason 5,62171.14%2,17027.46%1101.39%3,45143.68%7,901
Meade 10,63075.27%3,27923.22%2141.52%7,35152.05%14,123
Menifee 2,56377.81%66420.16%672.03%1,89957.65%3,294
Mercer 8,82674.47%2,83823.95%1871.58%5,98850.53%11,851
Metcalfe 4,19781.86%88417.24%460.90%3,31364.62%5,127
Monroe 4,67988.15%57610.85%531.00%4,10377.30%5,308
Montgomery 9,30272.55%3,32925.97%1901.48%5,97346.59%12,821
Morgan 4,35381.02%93917.48%811.51%3,41463.54%5,373
Muhlenberg 10,49176.62%3,04822.26%1531.12%7,44354.36%13,692
Nelson 16,05270.24%6,51528.51%2851.25%9,53741.73%22,852
Nicholas 2,45173.85%82424.83%441.33%1,62749.02%3,319
Ohio 8,67979.35%2,09419.15%1641.50%6,58560.21%10,937
Oldham 23,02560.26%14,40237.69%7832.05%8,62322.57%38,210
Owen 4,43480.62%98817.96%781.42%3,44662.65%5,500
Owsley 1,62588.36%20311.04%110.60%1,42277.32%1,839
Pendleton 5,59381.06%1,21017.54%971.41%4,38363.52%6,900
Perry 7,91379.19%1,96619.68%1131.13%5,94759.52%9,992
Pike 19,68482.19%4,02516.81%2411.01%15,65965.38%23,950
Powell 4,09276.34%1,17421.90%941.75%2,91854.44%5,360
Pulaski 26,05182.09%5,35116.86%3331.05%20,70065.23%31,735
Robertson 91579.98%21518.79%141.22%70061.19%1,144
Rockcastle 6,63585.90%98612.77%1031.33%5,64973.14%7,724
Rowan 6,22463.04%3,48435.29%1651.67%2,74027.75%9,873
Russell 7,62285.71%1,20013.49%710.80%6,42272.21%8,893
Scott 18,74762.97%10,50135.27%5211.75%8,24627.70%29,769
Shelby 16,35666.43%7,82231.77%4421.80%8,53434.66%24,620
Simpson 6,25371.25%2,40327.38%1201.37%3,85043.87%8,776
Spencer 8,92777.76%2,41521.04%1381.20%6,51256.72%11,480
Taylor 9,52377.67%2,57621.01%1621.32%6,94756.66%12,261
Todd 4,00978.42%1,05120.56%521.02%2,95857.86%5,112
Trigg 5,43675.54%1,66723.17%931.29%3,76952.38%7,196
Trimble 3,28377.27%92321.72%431.01%2,36055.54%4,249
Union 4,75878.54%1,22520.22%751.24%3,53358.32%6,058
Warren 34,86261.28%21,06537.03%9641.69%13,79724.25%56,891
Washington 4,72074.44%1,53324.18%881.39%3,18750.26%6,341
Wayne 7,20382.48%1,44416.53%860.98%5,75965.95%8,733
Webster 4,33978.10%1,15320.75%641.15%3,18657.34%5,556
Whitley 12,68784.16%2,23714.84%1511.00%10,45069.32%15,075
Wolfe 2,16374.20%68923.64%632.16%1,47450.57%2,915
Woodford 8,41956.15%6,28241.90%2921.95%2,13714.25%14,993
Totals1,336,23064.55%700,92133.86%32,9501.59%635,30930.69%2,070,101

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [24] [ user-generated source ]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 72.99%25.71% James Comer
2nd 69.92%28.61% Brett Guthrie
3rd 39.62%58.53% Morgan McGarvey
4th 66.91%31.37% Thomas Massie
5th 81.32%17.45% Hal Rogers
6th 56.91%41.15% Andy Barr

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Candidate has suspended campaign
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Utah</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Utah took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Washington took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Washington voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  4. ↑ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  6. ↑ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Potential Candidates" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. ↑ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ↑ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ↑ Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023). "Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  21. ↑ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient". co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived from the original on May 22, 2023.
  23. ↑ "Official 2024 General Election Results" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2024.
  24. ↑ "2024 Pres by CD".
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