2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2003 November 6, 2007 2011  →
Turnout37.8% [1] (Decrease2.svg 2.4%)
  Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg Ernie Fletcher (1).jpg
Nominee Steve Beshear Ernie Fletcher
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Daniel Mongiardo Robbie Rudolph
Popular vote619,552435,773
Percentage58.71%41.29%
2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Beshear:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fletcher:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Ernie Fletcher
Republican

Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries. [2]

Contents

Background

Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%, [3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Running mate: Mark Wireman
  • Running mate: Richard Robbins

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Beshear		Gatewood
Galbraith		Steve
Henry		Otis
Hensley		Bruce
Lunsford		Jody
Richards		Jonathan
Miller
Survey USA [4] May 18–20, 200732%7%17%1%23%12%N/A
Penn, Schoen and Berland [5] May 16–17, 200726%N/A13%N/A22%12%N/A
GarinHartYang Research [6] May 14–15, 200735%N/A13%N/A23%12%N/A
Survey USA [7] May 12–14, 200732%5%18%1%23%12%N/A
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [8] May 10–14, 200727%4%13%1%21%7%N/A
Survey USA [9] April 28–30, 200723%6%18%1%29%9%7%
Mellman Group [10] April 19–22, 200715%N/A24%N/A16%9%20%
Survey USA [11] March 31 – April 2, 200715%8%20%1%20%12%8%
Survey USA [12] March 3–5, 200715%6%26%2%7%13%8%
GarinHartYang Research [13] February 20–22, 200721%N/A21%N/A8%16%8%

Results

Primary results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Beshear Beshear--80-90% Beshear--70-80% Beshear--60-70% Beshear--50-60% Beshear--40-50% Beshear--30-40% Beshear--20-30% Lunsford Lunsford--60-70% Lunsford--50-60% Lunsford--40-50% Lunsford--30-40% Henry Henry--50-60% Henry--40-50% Henry--30-40% Richards Richards--60-70% Richards--50-60% Richards--40-50% Richards--30-40% Richards--20-30% Galbraith Galbraith--30-40% 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Beshear
  •   Beshear—80-90%
  •   Beshear—70-80%
  •   Beshear—60-70%
  •   Beshear—50-60%
  •   Beshear—40-50%
  •   Beshear—30-40%
  •   Beshear—20-30%
  Lunsford
  •   Lunsford—60-70%
  •   Lunsford—50-60%
  •   Lunsford—40-50%
  •   Lunsford—30-40%
  Henry
  •   Henry—50-60%
  •   Henry—40-50%
  •   Henry—30-40%
  Richards
  •   Richards—60-70%
  •   Richards—50-60%
  •   Richards—40-50%
  •   Richards—30-40%
  •   Richards—20-30%
  Galbraith
  •   Galbraith—30-40%
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Beshear 142,838 41.02%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 74,57821.42%
Democratic Steve Henry 60,89317.49%
Democratic Jody Richards 45,43313.05%
Democratic Gatewood Galbraith 20,7045.95%
Democratic Otis Hensley3,7921.09%
Total votes348,238 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.
  • Running mate: Dick Wilson.

Polling

SourceDateErnie
Fletcher		Billy
Harper		Anne
Northup
Survey USA [4] May 18–20, 200744%17%34%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [8] May 10–15, 200741%10%26%
Survey USA [7] May 12–14, 200744%14%34%
Survey USA [9] April 28–30, 200746%14%34%
Survey USA [11] March 31 – April 2, 200740%16%31%
Survey USA [12] March 3–5, 200733%13%31%
Public Opinion Strategies [15] January 28–29, 200739%10%39%

Results

Primary results by county: Fletcher 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Northup 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Harper 50-60% 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Fletcher
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Northup
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Harper
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) 101,328 50.08%
Republican Anne Northup 73,91936.53%
Republican Billy Harper27,09213.39%
Total votes202,339 100.00%

General election

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Beshear (D)		Ernie
Fletcher (R)
Survey USA [16] November 2–4, 200759%39%
Rasmussen Reports [17] November 1, 200754%39%
Survey USA [18] October 27–29, 200760%36%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [19] October 26–29, 200756%33%
Research 2000 [20] October 22–24, 200755%40%
Survey USA [21] October 19–21, 200758%38%
Survey USA [22] October 8–9, 200756%40%
Insider Advantage [23] September 24–25, 200745%35%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [24] September 13–18, 200755%35%
Preston-Osborne [25] September 13–17, 200751%36%
Research 2000 [26] September 10–13, 200756%39%
Survey USA [27] September 8–10, 200758%39%
Survey USA [28] August 4–6, 200758%37%
Preston-Osborne [29] July 25 – August 2, 200749%31%
Survey USA [30] July 14–16, 200759%36%
Insider Advantage [31] July 8–9, 200741%38%
Rasmussen Reports [32] May 24–25, 200751%35%
Survey USA [33] May 23–24, 200762%34%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Likely D (flip)November 1, 2007

Results

Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2007
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Beshear 619,552 58.71% +13.74%
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent)435,77341.29%−13.74%
Total votes1,055,325 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Voter Turnout Report for the 11/06/07 General Election" (PDF). Kentucky State Board of Elections.
  2. ↑ LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov Archived May 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  3. ↑ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  4. 1 2 Survey USA
  5. ↑ Penn, Schoen and Berland
  6. ↑ GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
  7. 1 2 Survey USA
  8. 1 2 Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  9. 1 2 Survey USA
  10. ↑ Mellman Group
  11. 1 2 Survey USA
  12. 1 2 Survey USA
  13. ↑ GarinHartYang Research
  14. 1 2 "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  15. ↑ Steitzer, Stephenie (February 2, 2007). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". The Kentucky Post . Covington, Kentucky. p. A2.
  16. ↑ Survey USA
  17. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  18. ↑ Survey USA
  19. ↑ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  20. ↑ Research 2000
  21. ↑ Survey USA
  22. ↑ Survey USA
  23. ↑ Insider Advantage
  24. ↑ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  25. ↑ Preston-Osborne
  26. ↑ Research 2000
  27. ↑ Survey USA
  28. ↑ Survey USA
  29. ↑ Preston-Osborne
  30. ↑ Survey USA
  31. ↑ Insider Advantage
  32. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ↑ Survey USA
  34. ↑ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.

Candidates

Information

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