2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2003 November 6, 2007 2011  →
Turnout37.1% Decrease2.svg 2.9 pp
  Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg Ernie Fletcher (1).jpg
Nominee Steve Beshear Ernie Fletcher
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Daniel Mongiardo Robbie Rudolph
Popular vote619,552435,773
Percentage58.71%41.29%
2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Beshear:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fletcher:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Ernie Fletcher
Republican

Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term, but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries. [1] Steve Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015 [2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.

Contents

Background

Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%, [3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Running mate: Mark Wireman
  • Running mate: Richard Robbins

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Beshear		Gatewood
Galbraith		Steve
Henry		Otis
Hensley		Bruce
Lunsford		Jody
Richards		Jonathan
Miller
Survey USA [4] May 18–20, 200732%7%17%1%23%12%N/A
Penn, Schoen and Berland [5] May 16–17, 200726%N/A13%N/A22%12%N/A
GarinHartYang Research [6] May 14–15, 200735%N/A13%N/A23%12%N/A
Survey USA [7] May 12–14, 200732%5%18%1%23%12%N/A
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [8] May 10–14, 200727%4%13%1%21%7%N/A
Survey USA [9] April 28–30, 200723%6%18%1%29%9%7%
Mellman Group [10] April 19–22, 200715%N/A24%N/A16%9%20%
Survey USA [11] March 31 – April 2, 200715%8%20%1%20%12%8%
Survey USA [12] March 3–5, 200715%6%26%2%7%13%8%
GarinHartYang Research [13] February 20–22, 200721%N/A21%N/A8%16%8%

Results

Primary results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Beshear Beshear--80-90% Beshear--70-80% Beshear--60-70% Beshear--50-60% Beshear--40-50% Beshear--30-40% Beshear--20-30% Lunsford Lunsford--60-70% Lunsford--50-60% Lunsford--40-50% Lunsford--30-40% Henry Henry--50-60% Henry--40-50% Henry--30-40% Richards Richards--60-70% Richards--50-60% Richards--40-50% Richards--30-40% Richards--20-30% Galbraith Galbraith--30-40% 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Beshear
  •   Beshear—80-90%
  •   Beshear—70-80%
  •   Beshear—60-70%
  •   Beshear—50-60%
  •   Beshear—40-50%
  •   Beshear—30-40%
  •   Beshear—20-30%
  Lunsford
  •   Lunsford—60-70%
  •   Lunsford—50-60%
  •   Lunsford—40-50%
  •   Lunsford—30-40%
  Henry
  •   Henry—50-60%
  •   Henry—40-50%
  •   Henry—30-40%
  Richards
  •   Richards—60-70%
  •   Richards—50-60%
  •   Richards—40-50%
  •   Richards—30-40%
  •   Richards—20-30%
  Galbraith
  •   Galbraith—30-40%
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Beshear 142,838 41.02%
Democratic Bruce Lunsford 74,57821.42%
Democratic Steve Henry 60,89317.49%
Democratic Jody Richards 45,43313.05%
Democratic Gatewood Galbraith 20,7045.95%
Democratic Otis Hensley3,7921.09%
Total votes348,238 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.
  • Running mate: Dick Wilson.

Polling

SourceDateErnie
Fletcher		Billy
Harper		Anne
Northup
Survey USA [4] May 18–20, 200744%17%34%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [8] May 10–15, 200741%10%26%
Survey USA [7] May 12–14, 200744%14%34%
Survey USA [9] April 28–30, 200746%14%34%
Survey USA [11] March 31 – April 2, 200740%16%31%
Survey USA [12] March 3–5, 200733%13%31%
Public Opinion Strategies [15] January 28–29, 200739%10%39%

Results

Primary results by county: Fletcher 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Northup 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Harper 50-60% 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Fletcher
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Northup
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Harper
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) 101,328 50.08%
Republican Anne Northup 73,91936.53%
Republican Billy Harper27,09213.39%
Total votes202,339 100.00%

General election

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Beshear (D)		Ernie
Fletcher (R)
Survey USA [16] November 2–4, 200759%39%
Rasmussen Reports [17] November 1, 200754%39%
Survey USA [18] October 27–29, 200760%36%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [19] October 26–29, 200756%33%
Research 2000 [20] October 22–24, 200755%40%
Survey USA [21] October 19–21, 200758%38%
Survey USA [22] October 8–9, 200756%40%
Insider Advantage [23] September 24–25, 200745%35%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll [24] September 13–18, 200755%35%
Preston-Osborne [25] September 13–17, 200751%36%
Research 2000 [26] September 10–13, 200756%39%
Survey USA [27] September 8–10, 200758%39%
Survey USA [28] August 4–6, 200758%37%
Preston-Osborne [29] July 25 – August 2, 200749%31%
Survey USA [30] July 14–16, 200759%36%
Insider Advantage [31] July 8–9, 200741%38%
Rasmussen Reports [32] May 24–25, 200751%35%
Survey USA [33] May 23–24, 200762%34%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Likely D (flip)November 1, 2007

Results

Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2007
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Beshear 619,552 58.71% +13.74%
Republican Ernie Fletcher (incumbent)435,77341.29%−13.74%
Total votes1,055,325 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Anne Northup</span> American politician (born 1948)

Anne Meagher Northup is an American Republican politician and educator from the Commonwealth of Kentucky. From 1997 to 2007, she represented the Louisville-centered 3rd congressional district of Kentucky in the United States House of Representatives, where she served on the powerful House Appropriations Committee. She lost reelection to Democrat John Yarmuth in the 2006 election. She then ran for Governor of Kentucky, losing by 15 points to embattled governor Ernie Fletcher in the Republican primary election for the 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election. Prior to her election to the United States House of Representatives, Northup had served in the Kentucky House of Representatives. Northup ran again for her old congressional seat in the 2008 election, losing again to Yarmuth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ernie Fletcher</span> American physician and politician (born 1952)

Ernest Lee Fletcher is an American physician and politician who was the 60th governor of Kentucky from 2003 to 2007. He previously served three consecutive terms in the United States House of Representatives before resigning after being elected governor. A member of the Republican Party, Fletcher was a family practice physician and a Baptist lay minister and is the second physician to be elected Governor of Kentucky; the first was Luke P. Blackburn in 1879. He was also the first Republican governor of Kentucky since Louie Nunn left office in 1971.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Daniel Mongiardo</span> American physician and politician

Frank Daniel Mongiardo is an American physician and politician from the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Mongiardo is a Democrat and was the 54th lieutenant governor of Kentucky from 2007 until 2011. He was a member of the Kentucky State Senate from 2001 to 2007. He also ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, narrowly losing in the general election to Jim Bunning and again in 2010, losing in the primary election to Jack Conway.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2007 United States gubernatorial elections</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greg Stumbo</span> American politician

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bruce Lunsford</span> American film producer

William Bruce Lunsford is an American attorney, businessman, and politician from Kentucky. He has served various roles in the Kentucky Democratic Party, including party treasurer, Deputy Development Secretary, and Head of Commerce. Lunsford was the Democratic nominee for Kentucky's United States Senate seat in 2008, unsuccessfully challenging incumbent Mitch McConnell.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2007 Kentucky elections</span>

The 2007 Kentucky elections for the statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, auditor of public accounts, commissioner of agriculture, secretary of state, and state treasurer were held on November 6, 2007. All incumbents were reelected with the exception of incumbent governor Ernie Fletcher, who was defeated in his reelection bid for governor by former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear. In addition, Democrats held the open Attorney General and State Treasurer posts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held to elect the Governor of Kentucky on November 4, 2003. Republican candidate Ernie Fletcher defeated Democrat Ben Chandler and became the first Republican governor of Kentucky in 32 years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steve Beshear</span> Governor of Kentucky from 2007 to 2015

Steven Lynn Beshear is an American attorney and politician who served as the 61st governor of Kentucky from 2007 to 2015. He served in the Kentucky House of Representatives from 1974 to 1980, was the state's 44th attorney general from 1980 to 1983 and was the 49th lieutenant governor from 1983 to 1987.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the governor of Kentucky and the lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear won re-election, defeating Republican challenger David L. Williams, then the president of the state senate, and Gatewood Galbraith, an independent candidate. Statewide turnout in this election was 28%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 Kentucky Secretary of State election</span>

The 2011 Kentucky Secretary of State election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the Secretary of State of Kentucky. Primaries for this election were held on Tuesday, May 17, 2011. In the general election, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes defeated Republican Bill Johnson.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Kentucky elections</span>

A general election was held in the U.S. state of Kentucky on November 3, 2015. All of Kentucky's executive officers were up for election. Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. If Cameron had won, he would have become Kentucky's first African-American governor.

References

  1. ↑ LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov Archived May 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  2. ↑ "Democratic Attorney General-elect Andy Beshear pledges cooperation with Republican Governor". WDRB. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
  3. ↑ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  4. 1 2 Survey USA
  5. ↑ Penn, Schoen and Berland
  6. ↑ GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
  7. 1 2 Survey USA
  8. 1 2 Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  9. 1 2 Survey USA
  10. ↑ Mellman Group
  11. 1 2 Survey USA
  12. 1 2 Survey USA
  13. ↑ GarinHartYang Research
  14. 1 2 "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  15. ↑ Steitzer, Stephenie (February 2, 2007). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". The Kentucky Post . Covington, Kentucky. p. A2.
  16. ↑ Survey USA
  17. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  18. ↑ Survey USA
  19. ↑ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  20. ↑ Research 2000
  21. ↑ Survey USA
  22. ↑ Survey USA
  23. ↑ Insider Advantage
  24. ↑ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
  25. ↑ Preston-Osborne
  26. ↑ Research 2000
  27. ↑ Survey USA
  28. ↑ Survey USA
  29. ↑ Preston-Osborne
  30. ↑ Survey USA
  31. ↑ Insider Advantage
  32. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ↑ Survey USA
  34. ↑ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.

Candidates

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