2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2011 November 3, 2015 2019  
Turnout30.4% Increase2.svg 2.1 pp
  Matt Bevin by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg JackConway.jpg
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote511,374426,620
Percentage52.52%43.82%

2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by state senate district.svg
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by state house district.svg
Bevin:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Conway:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%

Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015. [1] Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. [2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015. [1]

Contents

Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle. As of 2023, this was the only time since 2003 that a Republican was elected Governor of Kentucky.

This is the only instance in history in which Knott County has backed a Republican candidate for governor.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters [5]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill [4]

Declined

Endorsements

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly

Statewide elected officials

Individuals

Members of the Kentucky legislature

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway
Geoff
Young
Undecided
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 2015707± 3.5%68%13%19%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 2015640± 3.9%61%12%27%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–31, 2015255± 6.14%59%13%28%

Results

Results by county:
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Conway
Conway--60-70%
Conway--70-80%
Conway--80-90% 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Conway
  •   Conway—60–70%
  •   Conway—70–80%
  •   Conway—80–90%
Democratic primary results [64]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,88721.2%
Total votes178,514 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012 [69]
  • Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 2014-2015 [75]

Withdrew

  • Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran [76]
  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012 [76]

Declined

Endorsements

James Comer/Chris McDaniel

Individuals

Organizations

  • Associated General Contractors [99]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie

Individuals

Organizations

  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [100]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton

Individuals

  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [101]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [102]

Organizations

  • Cincinnati Enquirer [103]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cathy
Bailey
Matt
Bevin
James
Comer
Hal
Heiner
Will T.
Scott
Undecided
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 2015517± 4.4%27%26%25%8%14%
Public Policy Polling [104] May 6–7, 2015501± 4.4%25%28%27%20%
Triumph Campaigns [105] March 26, 2015601± 4%12%19%33%3%29%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 2015520± 4.4%20%20%28%8%25%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–31, 2015261± 6.07%18%25%19%9%30%
Remington Research [106] January 27–28, 20151,000± ?19%22%18%5%26%
Public Policy Polling [107] August 7–10, 2014383± ?11%25%20%18%26%
22%28%50%
Public Opinion Strategies [108] February 26–27, 2014400± 4.9%42%14%13%

Results

Results by county:
Bevin
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Comer
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
Heiner
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Scott
30-40%
60-70%
Tie
20-30% 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Bevin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Comer
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Heiner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Scott
  •   30–40%
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   20–30%

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes. [64]

Republican primary results [64]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,39732.89%
Republican Hal Heiner57,95127.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,3657.20%
Total votes214,187 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis [109]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [112] TossupOctober 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report [113] Tilt DOctober 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball [114] Lean DOctober 29, 2015
DKE [115] TossupOctober 29, 2015

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Matt
Bevin (R)
Drew
Curtis (I)
Undecided
Vox Populi [116] October 26–27, 2015618± 3.9%44%44%6%6%
43%46%6%7%
Survey USA [117] October 23–26, 2015798± 3.5%45%40%6%10%
WKU Social Science Research Center [118] October 19–25, 2015770± 3.5%45%40%7%8%
Mason-Dixon [119] October 6–8, 2015625± 4%43%41%6%10%
Survey USA [120] September 22–27, 2015701± 3.8%42%37%7%15%
Survey USA [121] July 22–28, 2015685± 3.8%43%38%8%11%
45%42%13%
Public Policy Polling [122] June 18–21, 20151,108± 2.9%35%38%6%21%
38%40%22%
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 20151,677± 2.4%48%37%16%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 20151,917± 2.3%42%36%22%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–29, 2015640± 3.87%45%41%14%
Gravis Marketing [123] January 5–6, 2015608± 4%44%36%20%
Public Policy Polling [107] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%39%36%25%
Hypothetical polling

Conway vs. Bailey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Cathy
Bailey (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [123] January 5–6, 2015608± 4%43%30%27%
Public Policy Polling [107] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%42%30%28%

Conway vs. Comer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
James
Comer (R)
OtherUndecided
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 20151,677± 2.4%45%39%16%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 20151,917± 2.3%40%38%22%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–29, 2015640± 3.87%41%45%14%
Gravis Marketing [123] January 5–6, 2015608± 4%40%37%23%
Garin-Hart-Yang* [124] December 19–21, 2014608± 4%48%36%16%
Public Policy Polling [107] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%38%35%27%

Conway vs. Heiner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Hal
Heiner (R)
OtherUndecided
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 20151,677± 2.4%48%36%16%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 20151,917± 2.3%41%38%21%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–29, 2015640± 3.87%42%44%14%
Gravis Marketing [123] January 5–6, 2015608± 4%43%34%22%
Garin-Hart-Yang* [124] December 19–21, 2014608± 4%51%30%19%
Public Policy Polling [107] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%39%32%28%
Gravis Marketing [125] July 17–20, 20141,054± 3%45%36%19%

Conway vs. Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Will T.
Scott (R)
OtherUndecided
Survey USA [61] May 5–10, 20151,677± 2.4%48%32%20%
Survey USA [62] March 3–8, 20151,917± 2.3%43%33%24%
Harper Polling [63] January 28–29, 2015640± 3.87%44%40%16%
  • * Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party

Results

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015 [126] [127] [128]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,62043.82%−11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,5973.66%N/A
Total votes973,692 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

County [129] Matt Bevin (R)Jack Conway (D)OtherTotal votes
#%%#%#
Adair66.33%2,72730.84%1,2682.82%1164,111
Allen69.00%2,34428.76%9772.24%763,397
Anderson55.34%3,72439.16%2,6355.50%3706,729
Ballard55.20%1,31241.65%9903.16%752,377
Barren57.40%5,28938.72%3,5683.88%3589,215
Bath46.65%1,04549.87%1,1173.48%782,240
Bell58.60%2,42537.60%1,5563.79%1574,138
Boone65.78%15,84230.80%7,4183.41%82224,082
Bourbon45.34%2,20251.68%2,5102.99%1454,857
Boyd51.70%4,74745.24%4,1543.06%2819,182
Boyle54.72%3,96840.65%2,9484.63%3367,252
Bracken53.78%85442.82%6803.40%541,588
Breathitt49.81%1,31345.83%1,2084.36%1152,636
Breckinridge56.78%2,64839.84%1,8583.39%1584,664
Bullitt57.86%9,85638.11%6,4924.03%68617,034
Butler67.24%1,78630.38%8072.37%632,656
Caldwell58.97%1,83837.86%1,1803.18%993,117
Calloway55.44%4,74241.59%3,5582.97%2548,554
Campbell54.15%10,67141.90%8,2583.95%77919,708
Carlisle60.66%89937.85%5611.48%221,482
Carroll46.61%86749.62%9233.76%701,860
Carter53.62%2,40543.57%1,9542.81%1264,485
Casey79.31%2,83618.15%6492.54%913,576
Christian56.91%4,83040.60%3,4462.49%2118,487
Clark54.55%4,55141.33%3,4484.12%3448,343
Clay71.11%2,31126.65%8662.25%733,250
Clinton76.36%1,53122.14%4441.50%302,005
Crittenden65.52%1,45031.86%7052.62%582,213
Cumberland70.93%92726.17%3422.91%381,307
Daviess55.12%13,48342.38%10,3662.50%61124,460
Edmonson63.02%1,50333.75%8053.23%772,385
Elliott40.21%49557.35%7062.44%301,231
Estill63.08%1,77031.72%8905.20%1462,806
Fayette39.72%27,78854.64%38,2205.64%3,94569,953
Fleming57.65%1,90738.81%1,2843.54%1173,308
Floyd42.04%3,39054.46%4,3923.50%2828,064
Franklin35.20%5,94258.29%9,8396.51%1,09816,879
Fulton51.45%56845.65%5042.90%321,104
Gallatin56.16%73939.89%5253.95%521,316
Garrard65.67%2,54229.91%1,1584.42%1713,871
Grant62.51%2,43334.07%1,3263.42%1333,892
Graves60.84%5,37036.13%3,1893.04%2688,827
Grayson62.86%3,24633.54%1,7323.60%1865,164
Green69.66%2,01827.82%8062.52%732,897
Greenup57.12%4,43240.07%3,1092.81%2187,759
Hancock49.93%1,11447.69%1,0642.38%532,231
Hardin56.71%11,58639.30%8,0293.99%81520,430
Harlan62.34%3,09933.61%1,6714.04%2014,971
Harrison51.15%2,09343.45%1,7785.40%2214,092
Hart57.48%2,04338.80%1,3793.71%1323,554
Henderson47.19%4,83749.92%5,1172.90%29710,251
Henry52.75%2,12642.68%1,7204.57%1844,030
Hickman61.43%77136.49%4582.07%261,255
Hopkins60.48%5,80236.73%3,5242.79%2689,594
Jackson83.36%2,31014.18%3932.45%682,771
Jefferson38.57%74,42758.16%112,2323.27%6,302192,961
Jessamine61.93%7,58133.77%4,1344.30%52612,241
Johnson65.39%3,04030.80%1,4323.81%1774,649
Kenton57.25%18,00739.11%12,3013.64%1,14531,453
Knott55.88%1,61239.55%1,1414.58%1322,885
Knox67.35%3,70629.69%1,6342.96%1635,503
Larue59.79%2,00936.13%1,2144.08%1373,360
Laurel74.48%8,78122.59%2,6632.93%34511,789
Lawrence60.87%1,61636.65%9732.49%662,655
Lee67.84%1,04227.47%4224.69%721,536
Leslie77.43%1,65420.18%4312.39%512,136
Letcher54.65%2,36041.11%1,7754.24%1834,318
Lewis73.56%1,83323.43%5843.01%752,492
Lincoln64.36%3,28931.82%1,6263.82%1955,110
Livingston57.49%1,34039.77%9272.75%642,331
Logan58.49%2,34539.04%1,5652.47%994,009
Lyon52.32%1,20845.17%1,0432.51%582,309
Madison55.87%10,26839.98%7,3484.16%76418,380
Magoffin53.86%1,22943.25%9872.89%662,282
Marion41.20%1,59155.20%2,1323.60%1393,862
Marshall53.26%5,96943.09%4,8303.65%40911,208
Martin73.25%1,26824.21%4192.54%441,731
Mason52.43%1,79244.79%1,5312.78%953,418
McCracken58.42%9,02839.03%6,0312.55%39415,453
McCreary65.42%1,36231.12%6483.46%722,082
McLean56.57%1,36440.81%9842.61%632,411
Meade51.37%3,31044.04%2,8384.59%2966,444
Menifee53.60%1,16041.45%8974.94%1072,164
Mercer60.22%3,51735.17%2,0544.61%2695,840
Metcalfe57.76%1,34438.16%8884.08%952,327
Monroe67.32%1,64229.56%7213.12%762,439
Montgomery54.61%3,27141.39%2,4794.01%2405,990
Morgan54.93%1,35540.90%1,0094.18%1032,467
Muhlenberg49.30%3,61347.12%3,4533.58%2627,328
Nelson48.35%4,90248.14%4,8803.51%35610,138
Nicholas38.20%56358.14%8573.66%541,474
Ohio59.41%3,11538.15%2,0002.44%1285,243
Oldham60.54%10,89635.58%6,4033.88%69917,998
Owen56.10%1,44438.85%1,0005.05%1302,574
Owsley70.47%58026.73%2202.79%23823
Pendleton59.92%1,56735.79%9364.28%1122,615
Perry62.00%3,27635.14%1,8572.86%1515,284
Pike54.76%6,14642.24%4,7412.99%33611,223
Powell52.48%1,33543.63%1,1103.89%992,544
Pulaski72.00%10,62324.83%3,6643.17%46714,754
Robertson53.12%24743.44%2023.44%16465
Rockcastle74.33%2,53621.81%7443.87%1323,412
Rowan46.67%2,17949.71%2,3213.62%1694,669
Russell72.08%3,31224.90%1,1443.03%1394,595
Scott51.32%6,16543.55%5,2325.14%61712,014
Shelby56.74%6,57339.49%4,5753.76%43611,584
Simpson59.57%1,65238.19%1,0592.24%622,773
Spencer62.84%3,16933.81%1,7053.35%1695,043
Taylor61.28%3,85235.95%2,2602.77%1746,286
Todd62.23%90334.67%5033.10%451,451
Trigg55.01%1,74642.28%1,3422.71%863,174
Trimble54.51%1,03342.06%7973.43%651,895
Union47.53%1,82950.10%1,9282.36%913,848
Warren55.17%12,41141.58%9,3543.25%73022,495
Washington57.38%1,79638.50%1,2054.12%1293,130
Wayne64.54%2,41233.15%1,2392.30%863,737
Webster55.82%1,56741.61%1,1682.57%722,807
Whitley69.73%4,77227.13%1,8573.14%2156,844
Wolfe46.15%68951.11%7632.75%411,493
Woodford47.53%3,80446.28%3,7046.19%4958,003

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bevin won 4 of 6 congressional districts. Conway won the other two, including one held by a Republican. [129]

DistrictBevinConwayRepresentative
1st 58.01%39.15% Ed Whitfield
2nd 56.96%39.45% Brett Guthrie
3rd 37.63%59.14% John Yarmuth
4th 58.49%37.83% Thomas Massie
5th 62.74%33.99% Hal Rogers
6th 46.21%48.65% Andy Barr

See also

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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 17.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. The Democratic nominee, Andy Beshear, defeated Republican Incumbent governor Matt Bevin. It was the closest gubernatorial election by votes since 1899. It was the closest race of the 2019 gubernatorial election cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Kentucky elections</span>

A general election was held in the U.S. state of Kentucky on November 5, 2019, with all executive offices in the state up for election. Primary elections were held on May 21, 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Kentucky Attorney General election</span>

The 2019 Kentucky Attorney General election was conducted on November 5. Primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019. The general election was held on November 5, 2019. Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear declined to seek reelection to a second term to instead successfully run for Governor. Republican nominee Daniel Cameron won with 57.8% of the vote. He became the first Republican elected attorney general of Kentucky since Eldon S. Dummit in 1943, and the state's first black attorney general.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span>

The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. If Cameron had won, he would have become Kentucky's first African-American governor.

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