2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
Flag of Louisiana.svg
←  2011 October 24, 2015 (first round)
November 21, 2015 (runoff)		 2019  →
Turnout39.2% Decrease2.svg (first round)
40.2% Increase2.svg (runoff)
  John Bel Edwards (cropped).jpg DVitterOfficial.jpg
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
First round444,517
39.89%		256,300
23.00%
Runoff646,924
56.11%		505,940
43.89%
  Scott Angelle official photo (cropped).jpg Jay Dardenne Feb 2013.jpg
Candidate Scott Angelle Jay Dardenne
Party Republican Republican
First round214,982
19.29%		166,656
14.96%
RunoffEliminatedEliminated
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election results map by parish.svg
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial runoff election results map by parish.svg
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff by precinct.svg
Edwards:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Vitter:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Angelle:     30–40%     60–70%
Other:     Tie     No Data
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Contents

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016. [1] [2] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008; his victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups. [3]

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Declined

Democratic Party

Filed

Declined

Ineligible

Independents

Filed

  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine [27]
  • Jeremy Odom, minister [28]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron [29]

Declined

Endorsements

Scott Angelle

Organizations

  • Terrebonne Republican Party [35]
  • Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish [36]
  • Livingston Parish Republican Party [37]

Publishers

  • Greater Baton Rouge Business Report [38]
  • The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site [39]

Public Figures

Politicians

  • Paul Hardy, 48th lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • Fred Mills, Louisiana state senator
  • Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President
Jay Dardenne

Politicians

John Bel Edwards

Organizations

Politicians

Newspapers

David Vitter

Organizations

Politicians

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Scott
Angelle (R)		Jay
Dardenne (R)		John Bel
Edwards (D)		John
Kennedy (R)		Mitch
Landrieu (D)		David
Vitter (R)		OtherUndecided
MarblePortLLC [63] October 20–21, 20151464± 3%12.7%14.1%40.5%——28.5%—4.3%
MRI [64] October 15–19, 2015600± ?%17%14%36%——19%2%12%
Harper Polling (R) [65] October 16–17, 2015612± 3.9%14%14%36%——26%—9%
KPLC/Raycom Media [66] October 7–13, 2015602± 4%7%8%24%——21%—37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV [67] September 20–23, 2015800± 3.46%15%14%24%——24%—18%
Public Policy Polling [68] September 21–22, 2015616± 4%15%14%28%——27%—17%
Verne Kennedy [69] July 27–31, 2015600± 4%25%12%20%——22%—21%
MarblePort [70] June 17, 20151415± 2.6%11.1%10.4%28.8%——34.1%—15.6%
Verne Kennedy [71] May 27–29, 2015700± 3.5%17%12%29%——29%—13%
SM&O Research [72] May 5, 2015600± 4.0%6%17%25%——38%—16%
MarblePort [73] March 17, 20151,071± 2.99%7%14%31%——34%—14%
Triumph [74] March 5, 20151,655± 2.4%7%15%33%——35%—11%
NSO Research* [75] January 10–13, 2015600± 4%2%10%20%13%—24%—32%
SM&O Research [76] December 9–11, 2014600± ?3.1%18.6%25.7%——36.3%—16.3%
Suffolk [77] October 23–26, 2014500± 4%3%9.8%3.8%—22.6%31.6%—29.2%
Multi-Quest [78] October 22–24, 2014606± 4%2.3%10.9%4%——25.9%3.8% [79] 53.1%
SM&O Research [80] April 28–30, 2014600± ?3.8%10.5%5.5%11.7%28.9%28.9%—10.6%
PSB [81] April 2014601± ?—14%17%8%—18%14% [82] 29%
Magellan [83] March 24–26, 2014600± 4.1%—13.1%4.6%8.5%26.4%27.6%—19.8%
V/C Research [84] February 20–25, 2014600± 4%—11%8%9%33%25%—15%
Kitchens Group** [85] February 10–12, 2014600± 4.2%—9%21%7%—26%—38%
WPAOR^ [86] November 12–14, 2013800± 3.5%—12%2%9%20%25%11% [87] 11
—22%——29%35%—14%
SM&O Research [88] November 6–12, 2013600± 4%2.1%18%7.9%18.9%—30.3%—22.9%
Magellan [89] October 2–4, 20122,862± 1.9%—6.5%—7.2%29.4%31.1%9.1% [90] 16.7%

Results

Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015 [91]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,98219.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,65614.96
Democratic Cary Deaton11,7631.06
Democratic S.L. Simpson7,4200.67
Independent Beryl Billiot5,6940.51
Independent Jeremy Odom4,7560.43
Independent Eric Orgeron2,2480.2
Total votes1,114,336 100

Runoff

Campaign

Sign for John Bel Edwards Sign supporting John Bel Edwards.jpg
Sign for John Bel Edwards

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana. [92]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes. [93]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [94] Lean D (flip)November 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report [95] TossupNovember 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball [96] Lean D (flip)November 19, 2015
DKE [97] TossupOctober 29, 2015

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Vitter (R)		John Bel
Edwards (D)		Undecided
JMC Analytics [98] November 19, 2015614± 3.9%43%47%10%
RRH Elections [99] November 12–16, 2015359± 5%42%48%10%
JMC Analytics [100] November 14–16, 2015635± 3.9%35%51%13%
JMC Analytics [101] November 14–16, 2015635± 4%38%54%8%
Market Research Insight [102] November 11–14, 2015600± 4%38%53%9%
Hayride/MarblePort [103] November 11, 2015978± 3.1%42%48%10%
Market Research Insight [104] November 11, 2015600± 4%38%52%10%
UNO Survey Research Center [105] November 2–8, 2015600± 4%34%56%10%
Triumph Campaigns [106] November 5, 20151,818± 3%41%49%10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics [107] October 28–31, 2015600± 4%32%52%16%
Market Research Insight [108] October 27–28, 2015600± 4.1%38%54%8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove [109] October 26–28, 2015700± 3.7%40%52%7%
KPLC/Raycom Media [66] October 7–13, 2015602± 4%33%52% ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV [67] September 20–23, 2015800± 3.46%41%45% ?%
Public Policy Polling [68] September 21–22, 2015616± 4%38%50%12%
Public Policy Polling [110] September 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%50%32%18%
Public Policy Polling [111] June 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%52%30%17%
The Kitchen Group* [112] February 10–12, 2014600± 4.2%38%32%31%
Public Policy Polling [113] February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%51%30%19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Hypothetical polling

Dardenne vs. Landrieu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Dardenne (R)		Mitch
Landrieu (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [110] September 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%43%39%18%
Public Policy Polling [111] June 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%43%43%15%
Public Policy Polling [113] February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%46%36%18%
Public Policy Polling [114] August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%35%45%20%
Public Policy Polling [115] February 8–12, 2013603± 4%42%44%15%

Duke vs. Edwards

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Duke (R)		Edwin
Edwards (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [115] February 8–12, 2013603± 4%15%62%23%

Vitter vs. Landrieu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Vitter (R)		Mitch
Landrieu (D)		Undecided
SM&O Research [80] April 28–30, 2014600± ?52.8%41.8%5.5%
Gravis Marketing [116] November 12–14, 2014643± 4%54%36%10%
Public Policy Polling [110] September 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%47%38%14%
Gravis Marketing [117] September 5–9, 2014426± 5%46%44%11%
Public Policy Polling [111] June 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%48%44%8%
Public Policy Polling [113] February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%50%37%13%
Public Policy Polling [114] August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%42%45%14%
Harper Polling [118] August 14–15, 2013596± 4.01%45%43%12%
Public Policy Polling [115] February 8–12, 2013603± 4%44%44%13%
Magellan Strategies [119] October 2–4, 20122,862± 1.9%45.2%39.8%15%

Results

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections.[ citation needed ] He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015 [120]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.11%
Republican David Vitter 505,94043.89%
Total votes1,152,864 100%
Democratic gain from Republican

By congressional district

Edwards won 5 of 6 congressional districts including 4 congress districts held by republican. [121]

DistrictEdwardsVitterRepresentative
1st 43.30%56.70% Steve Scalise
2nd 82.62%17.38% Cedric Richmond
3rd 50.11%49.89% Charles Boustany
4th 52.94%47.06% John Fleming
5th 53.78%46.22% Ralph Abraham
6th 53.83%46.17% Garret Graves

See also

Related Research Articles

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  48. ↑ Hilburn, Greg (September 9, 2015). "Monroe mayor endorses Edwards for governor". The Times . Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  49. ↑ Litten, Kevin (November 5, 2015). "Republican Jay Dardenne endorses Democrat John Bel Edwards for Louisiana governor". The Times-Picayune . Archived from the original on November 7, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
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  52. ↑ "Vitter lands LABI nod as expected". thenewsstar.com. November 12, 2015.
  53. ↑ "David Vitter picks up gubernatorial endorsements from Louisiana congressmen Abraham, Fleming". The Advocate. Archived from the original on April 14, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  54. ↑ "Boustany endorsing Vitter for La. governor". The Advertiser. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
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  58. ↑ Boone, Timothy (February 18, 2015). "US Sen Bill Cassidy endorses David Vitter for governor". The Advocate . Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
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  63. ↑ MarblePortLLC
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  66. 1 2 KPLC/Raycom Media
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  68. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  69. ↑ Verne Kennedy
  70. ↑ MarblePort
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  75. ↑ NSO Research*
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  77. ↑ Suffolk Archived October 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  78. ↑ "Multi-Quest". Archived from the original on January 4, 2015. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  79. ↑ Foster Campbell (D)
  80. 1 2 "SM&O Research" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  81. ↑ PSB
  82. ↑ Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
  83. ↑ Magellan
  84. ↑ V/C Research Archived September 12, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  85. ↑ Kitchens Group**
  86. ↑ "WPAOR^". Archived from the original on October 27, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  87. ↑ Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  88. ↑ SM&O Research
  89. ↑ Magellan
  90. ↑ John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
  91. ↑ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  92. ↑ "Vitter, Edwards face-off in first televised gubernatorial runoff debate". WWLTV. November 11, 2015. Archived from the original on November 14, 2015. Retrieved November 11, 2015.
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  94. ↑ "Louisiana Governor: Vitter's Struggles Move this Race to Lean Democrat". The Cook Political Report.
  95. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  96. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Baffling Bayou". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.[ permanent dead link ]
  97. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
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  99. ↑ RRH Elections
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  102. ↑ Market Research Insight
  103. ↑ Hayride/MarblePort
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  106. ↑ "Triumph Campaigns" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2015.
  107. ↑ WVLA/JMC Analytics
  108. ↑ "Market Research Insight". Archived from the original on November 6, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  109. ↑ "Anzalone Liszt Grove". Archived from the original on November 1, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
  110. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  111. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  112. ↑ The Kitchen Group*
  113. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  114. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  115. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
  116. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  117. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  118. ↑ Harper Polling
  119. ↑ Magellan Strategies
  120. ↑ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  121. ↑ "Our Campaigns".
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