2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election

Last updated

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
Flag of Louisiana.svg
  2019 October 14, 2023
2027  
Turnout36.3% Decrease2.svg
  Jeff Landry and Mike Johnson, March 2023 (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Candidate Jeff Landry Shawn Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote547,827275,525
Percentage51.56%25.93%

  John Schroder.jpg
CandidateStephen Waguespack John Schroder
Party Republican Republican
Popular vote62,28756,654
Percentage5.86%5.33%

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election results map by parish.svg
LA-23-gov-districts.svg
LA Governor 2023.svg
Landry:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Wilson:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Waguespack:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     >90%
Schroder:     30–40%     60–70%     >90%
Lundy:     30–40%     40–50%
Cole:     30–40%     60–70%     >90%
Tie:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50%
     No votes

Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jeff Landry
Republican

The 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on October 14, 2023 to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. [1] This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Contents

Under Louisiana's two-round system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of that person's party affiliation. If no candidate had received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 14, 2023, a runoff election would have been held on November 18, 2023, between the top two candidates in the primary. [2]

State Attorney General Jeff Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary. This was the first time a candidate won a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since fellow Republican Bobby Jindal was re-elected in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents, including former state chamber of commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack and State Treasurer John Schroder. Former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson was the leading Democratic candidate. [3] All the Republican candidates collectively won 65.52% of the vote, including a candidate who got 0.34% of the vote as he dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot. All the Democrats collectively won 28.53% of the vote, & all the Independents collectively won 5.95% of the vote. This was the only governorship to flip parties in the 2023 elections.

Background

Louisiana, like much of the Deep South, is a very socially conservative "Bible Belt" state. Democrats were the favored party at all levels of government as recently as the 1990s, however the Republican Party has since rapidly gained ground, first at the federal level and gradually at the state and local level as well. Today, the state is strongly Republican-leaning and, at the time of the election, Republicans held both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, all but one of its U.S. House seats, both of its state legislative chambers, and every statewide executive office except the governorship.

John Bel Edwards, a moderate Democrat, was able to win two terms as governor and overcome the state's partisan lean by diverging from the national party on certain policy matters, such as abortion, while also appealing to Louisiana's contemporary Democratic voting base. [4] [5] However, as Edwards was term-limited going into the election, most analysts expected the governorship to flip back to the Republican Party in 2023, primarily due to the lack of Democratic candidates with Edwards' crossover appeal. [6]

Democratic candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Independent candidates

Declared

Jungle primary

Campaign

The Louisiana Republican Party endorsed Attorney General Jeff Landry's campaign on November 7, 2022, a year before the election. The party had had a full-body meeting scheduled for October 29, but it was canceled, and instead the endorsement was voted on in an exclusive meeting held over Zoom. [43] Landry and Eddie Rispone, a member of the Republican State Central Committee who supported him, had pushed the party to make an early endorsement, arguing that the Republicans' best chance of flipping the governorship was to unite around one candidate well in advance of the election. This move was heavily criticized by other Republicans who had expressed interest in running for governor. Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser said the party's endorsement process "looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love," State Treasurer John Schroder claimed it was driven by "money and inside party politics," and Louisiana Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt proclaimed "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor." Michael DiResto, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, believed "the idea that a small cabal would preempt the democratic process literally under the cover of darkness and in a smoke-filled Zoom goes against the foundational values of our party." [44] [45] In response, Louisiana Republican Party chair Louis Gurvich said "others who are crying over this endorsement are just upset because they didn't have the support within our party to win the endorsement for themselves." [46]

Endorsements

Jeff Landry (R)
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Political parties
Shawn Wilson (D)
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
  • Louisiana AFL-CIO [54]
  • Moms Demand Action [54]
  • New Orleans Independent Women's Organization [54]
Individuals
Political parties
Newspapers and other media
Stephen Waguespack (R)
U.S. representatives
Newspapers and other media

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [64] Lean R (flip)July 21, 2023
Inside Elections [65] Likely R (flip)September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [66] Likely R (flip)July 13, 2023
Elections Daily [67] Safe R (flip)July 12, 2023

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Hewitt
(R)
Istre
(I)
Landry
(R)
Lundy
(I)
Nelson
(R)
Schroder
(R)
Waguespack
(R)
Wilson
(D)
OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%2%0%40%4%1%3%9%24%2% [lower-alpha 2] 15%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [upper-alpha 2] September 11–15, 20231,062 (LV)± 2.9%4.1%37.7%6.3%1.2%6.5%6.7%22.6%14.9%
Faucheux Strategies [upper-alpha 3] August 14–19, 2023800 (LV)± 3.46%3%36%7%2%4%6%26%2%14%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2023982 (LV)± 3.1%5%40%5%22%10 [lower-alpha 3] 18%
BDPC [upper-alpha 4] July 6–10, 2023600 (V)± 4.0%4%30%5%1%6%5%28%23%
Kaplan Strategies June 30 – July 2, 20231,077 (LV)± 3.0%5%30%5%2%6%6%22%24%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 5] June 22–25, 2023896 (LV)?3%25%4%0%7%16%27%18%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] June 15–17, 2023500 (LV)± 2.45%2%<1%35%4%<1%3%6%27%2%18%
The Kitchens Group (D) [upper-alpha 7] June 12–15, 20231,600 (LV)± 2.45%≥6%31%4%≥6%≥6%21%7% [lower-alpha 4] 25%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] April 30 – May 2, 2023500 (LV)± 2.45%2%1%32%2%1%6%2%18%4%32%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 6] April 11–13, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%3%36%3%1%6%2%18%1% [lower-alpha 5] 29%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 8] Before April 18, 2023??35%25%17% [lower-alpha 6] 23%
JMC Analytics [upper-alpha 9] March 6–8, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%2%28%3%3%29%22%
BDPC [upper-alpha 10] December 7–13, 2022630 (LV)± 4.0%3%22%2%2%23%23% [lower-alpha 7] 24%
Torchlight Strategies [upper-alpha 11] December 6–9, 2022861 (LV)± 3.3%14%22%42% [lower-alpha 8] 20%
Torchlight Strategies [upper-alpha 11] November 9–12, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%<1%13%2%1%18%40% [lower-alpha 9] 26%
JMC Analytics (R) March 21–23, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%2%11%1%46% [lower-alpha 10] 29%
Hypothetical polling
Jeff Landry vs. Sharon Hewitt
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Landry (R)
Sharon
Hewitt (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%53%23%24%
Jeff Landry vs. Hunter Lundy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Landry (R)
Hunter
Lundy (I)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%56%30%14%
Jeff Landry vs. John Schroder
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Landry (R)
John
Schroder (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%51%23%26%
Jeff Landry vs. Stephen Waguespack
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Landry (R)
Stephen
Waguespack (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%52%27%21%
Jeff Landry vs. Shawn Wilson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Landry (R)
Shawn
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] September 12–15, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%52%39%9%
Faucheux Strategies [upper-alpha 3] August 14–19, 2023800 (LV)± 3.46%54%36%10%
BDPC [upper-alpha 4] July 6–10, 2023600 (V)± 4.0%45%40%16%
John Kennedy vs. Jeff Landry
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Kennedy (R)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
Torchlight Strategies [upper-alpha 11] December 6–9, 2022861 (LV)± 3.3%46%21%27%
John Kennedy vs. Shawn Wilson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
John
Kennedy (R)
Shawn
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Torchlight Strategies [upper-alpha 11] December 6–9, 2022861 (LV)± 3.3%58%27%14%
Torchlight Strategies [upper-alpha 11] November 9–12, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%58%32%12%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
JMC Analytics (R) March 21–23, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%33%50%17%

Results

Turnout map by parish

.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
25-30%
30-35%
35-40%
40-45%
45-50%
50-60% 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election turnout map by parish.svg
Turnout map by parish
  25–30%
  30–35%
  35–40%
  40–45%
  45–50%
  50–60%
2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election [68]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Landry 547,827 51.56%
Democratic Shawn Wilson 275,52525.93%
Republican Stephen Waguespack62,2875.86%
Republican John Schroder 56,6545.33%
Independent Hunter Lundy52,1654.91%
Democratic Danny Cole27,6622.60%
Republican Sharon Hewitt 18,4681.74%
Independent Benjamin Barnes5,1900.49%
Republican Dat Barthel4,4260.42%
Republican Richard Nelson (withdrawn)3,6050.34%
Independent Jeffery Istre3,4000.32%
Republican Xavier Ellis1,7340.16%
Independent Keitron Gagnon1,2600.12%
Republican Xan John1,1640.11%
Independent Frank Scurlock1,1310.11%
Total votes1,062,498 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

Aftermath

In his victory speech, Governor-elect Landry stated that the "election says that our state is united", adding, "it's a wake up call and it's a message that everyone should hear loud and clear, that we the people in this state are going to expect more out of our government from here on out". [69]

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Oscar Dantzler & Patrick Henry Barthel with 1%; Benjamin Barnes, Daniel Cole, Xavier Ellis,Keitron Gagnon, Xan John & Frank Scurlock with 0%
  3. No other candidate received more than 5%
  4. "Someone else" with 7%
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. No other candidate received more than 3%
  7. Billy Nungesser (R) with 23%
  8. John Kennedy (R) with 42%
  9. John Kennedy (R) with 22%; Billy Nungesser (R) with 7%; Bill Cassidy (R) with 6%; Garret Graves (R) with 5%
  10. John Kennedy (R) with 22%; Sharon Weston Broome (D) with 14%; Bill Cassidy (R) with 10%; Billy Nungesser (R) with 7%; Gary Smith Jr. (D) with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by Gray Television
  2. Poll commissioned by LA Integrity PAC
  3. 1 2 Poll commissioned by WWL-TV, WBRZ-TV, KTBS-TV, KATC-TV, The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate, Urban League of Louisiana and Public Affairs Research Council
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the conservative group Citizens for a New Louisiana
  5. Poll sponsored by Reboot Louisiana, a super PAC supporting Waguespack
  6. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Landry
  7. Poll sponsored by Vantage Data House
  8. Poll conducted for Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser
  9. Poll conducted for Attorney General candidate John Belton
  10. Poll conducted for Billy Nungesser
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll conducted for John Kennedy

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