2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana
Flag of Louisiana.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 (first round)
December 6, 2014 (runoff)
2020  
Turnout51.5% Increase2.svg (first round) 43.6% Decrease2.svg (runoff)
  Bill Cassidy, official 111th Congress photo portrait (cropped 2).JPG Mary Landrieu Senate portrait (cropped 2).jpg Col Robert Maness.jpg
Nominee Bill Cassidy Mary Landrieu Rob Maness
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round603,048
40.92%
619,402
42.03%
202,556
13.74%
Runoff712,379
55.93%
561,210
44.07%
Eliminated

2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana results map by parish.svg
Louisiana Senate Runoff Election Results by County, 2014.svg
2014 United States Senate Runoff election in Louisiana by congressional district.svg
Cassidy:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Landrieu:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Mary Landrieu
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana.

Contents

Incumbent senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2014 between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy. [1]

In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 11.86 percentage points (55.93% to 44.07%), settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterms, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1883, and giving Senate Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress. [2] This marked the first time since the resignation of William Pitt Kellogg in 1872 that both of Louisiana's Senate seats were held by Republicans, and rendered Cedric Richmond as Louisiana’s only congressional Democrat.

Background

Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Withdrew

  • Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu) [7] [8]

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer [27]

Jungle primary

Debates

Endorsements

Mary Landrieu (D)
Individuals
Organizations
Bill Cassidy (R)
Politicians
Individuals
Rob Maness (R)
Politicians
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%48%24%5%23%
Southern Media & Opinion Research November 6–12, 2013600± 4%41%34%10%16%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014992± 3.11%42%29%4%4%20%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%43%25%5%3%25%
Magellan Strategies March 24–26, 2014600± 4.1%39%26%3%3%28%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014538± 4.22%40%35%3%4%18%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014946± ?42%18%5%4%3%27%
Southern Media & Opinion Research April 28–30, 2014600± 4%36%35%4%7%18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014600± 4%48%29%8%7%8%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%44%27%5%8%17%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014600± 4%43%32%16%1%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014870± 5%36%38%10%3% [45] 11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014600± 4%47%32%13%8%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014426± 5%45%30%14%12%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014617± 4%31%35%7%16%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014610 LV± 4%43%40%9%4%4%
866 RV± 3.5%45%35%8%6%5%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%42%34%12%2%10%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014502± 4.4%39%30%6%5% [46] 19%
0ptimus September 30 – October 2, 20145,711± 1.3%38%36%18%9%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014965± 3%41%38%14%2%5%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014546± 4.2%38%38%10%6% [47] 8%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014605± 4%36%32%6%3%23%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014988± 3%43%36%13%3%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,316± 5%37%32%5%5% [48] 19%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014590± 4.1%38%33%7%1%21%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014500± 4%36%35%11%3% [49] 15%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014630 LV± 3.9%44%36%15%1%4%
961 RV± 3.2%42%35%15%1%6%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 20141,003± 3.1%43%35%15%1%6%
Hypothetical polling
Jungle primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%40%21%5%4%13%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
John
Fleming (R)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%47%20%6%2%25%
Public Opinion Strategies^ March 3–5, 2013500± 4.38%47%14%15%6%18%
  • ^ Internal poll for John Fleming Campaign
Republican primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013541± 4.21%38%14%48%

Results

United States Senate election jungle primary in Louisiana, 2014 [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mary Landrieu (incumbent) 619,402 42.08%
Republican Bill Cassidy 603,048 40.97%
Republican Rob Maness202,55613.76%
Republican Thomas Clements14,1730.96%
Libertarian Brannon McMorris13,0340.89%
Democratic Wayne Ables11,3230.77%
Democratic William Waymire4,6730.32%
Democratic Vallian Senegal3,8350.26%
Total votes1,473,826 100%

Runoff

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [51] Lean R (flip)November 21, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [52] Safe R (flip)December 4, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [53] Lean R (flip)November 6, 2014
Real Clear Politics [54] Likely R (flip)November 19, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%50%40%10%
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013541± 4.21%46%41%13%
On Message Inc. [ permanent dead link ]August 13–15, 2013600± 4.0%45%43%12%
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013596± 4.01%45%47%8%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%50%40%10%
Harper Polling September 22–23, 2013561± 4.14%46%44%10%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013632± 3.9%48%41%11%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014992± 3.11%44%45%11%
Rasmussen Reports January 28–29, 2014500± 4.5%40%44%5%11%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%45%44%10%
Hickman Analytics February 17–24, 2014404± 4.9%42%46%11%
Voter/Consumer Research February 20–25, 2014600± 4%45%44%1%9%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014538± 4.22%43%47%10%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014775± 3.52%42%44%10%4%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014600± 4%49%49%2%
Magellan Strategies June 5–8, 2014719± 3.65%44%50%5%1%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%47%47%6%
Rasmussen Reports July 8–9, 2014750± 4%46%43%5%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,456± 3.5%46%47%6%2%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014600± 4%49%43%8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014600± 4%48%46%6%
Rasmussen Reports September 2–3, 2014800± 3.5%41%44%9%6%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014426± 5%45%45%10%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014617± 4%38%51%9%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014610 LV± 4%47%50%3%
866 RV± 3.5%51%45%4%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%45%48%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20142,187± 2%41%47%0%13%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014502± 4.4%45%46%9%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014965± 3%43%52%5%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014546± 4.2%44%48%8%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014605± 4%40%43%17%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014988± 3%46%50%4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,316± 5%42%46%0%12%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014590± 4.1%43%51%6%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014500± 4%41%48%11%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014630 LV± 3.9%45%50%1%5%
961 RV± 3.2%44%49%2%6%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 20141,003± 3.1%47%48%5%
Gravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014643± 4%38%59%3%
Vox Populi Polling November 16–17, 2014761± 3.55%42%53%5%
Rasmussen Reports November 16–19, 20141,000± 3%41%56%3%
JJMC Analytics November 20, 2014754± 3.6%40%55%5%
GEB International November 20, 2014850± 3.36%34%60%6%
WPA Opinion Research November 24–25, 2014500± 4.4%33%57%10%
Rasmussen Reports December 2–4, 20141,000± 3%40%56%4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Charles
Boustany (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%48%42%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jay
Dardenne (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
John
Fleming (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%50%38%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Elbert
Guillory (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013596± 4.01%44%44%11%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%50%36%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%48%42%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bobby
Jindal (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%49%41%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%48%39%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Rob
Maness (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013596± 4.01%47%41%12%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%50%37%13%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%47%42%10%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014600± 4%48%44%8%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014610 LV± 4%48%48%4%
866 RV± 3.5%53%42%5%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014630 LV± 3.9%46%50%1%4%
961 RV± 3.2%46%47%1%5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Phil
Robertson (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%42%46%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Chas
Roemer (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013541± 4.21%46%33%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Steve
Scalise (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013603± 4%48%38%14%

Results

United States Senate election runoff in Louisiana, 2014 [55]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Bill Cassidy 712,379 55.93% +10.21%
Democratic Mary Landrieu (incumbent)561,21044.07%-8.04%
Total votes1,273,589 100% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cassidy won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.

DistrictCassidyLandrieuRepresentative
1st 65.64%34.36% Steve Scalise
2nd 19.64%80.36% Cedric Richmond
3rd 66.19%33.81% Charles Boustany
4th 58.38%41.62% John Fleming
5th 60.96%39.04% Ralph Abraham
6th 64.03%35.97% Garret Graves

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

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  45. Thomas Clements 2%, Brannon McMorris 1%, Other 0%
  46. Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 1%
  47. Brannon McMorris (L) 2%, Other 4%
  48. Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Raymond Brown (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%, Other 0%
  49. Wayne Ables (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 1%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%
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