2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

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2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
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  Ryan Zinke official congressional photo (crop).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ryan Zinke John Lewis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote203,871148,690
Percentage55.4%40.4%
Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2014 results by county.svg
County results
Zinke:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Lewis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Steve Daines
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district MT-Atlarge.gif
Montana's at-large congressional district

The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Daines was first elected in 2012. Instead of running for re-election, he successfully ran for the U.S. Senate election in 2014. [1] Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the elected will serve in the 114th United States Congress from January 3, 2015, until January 3, 2017.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Brad
Johnson		Matthew
Rosendale		Corey
Stapleton		Ryan
Zinke		OtherUndecided
PPP [12] November 15–17, 2013469±4.5%20%9%32%9%—31%

Primary results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ryan Zinke 43,766 33.25
Republican Corey Stapleton38,59129.32
Republican Matt Rosendale37,96528.84
Republican Elsie Arntzen9,0116.85
Republican Drew Turiano2,2901.74
Total votes131,623 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for the seat in 2010 [16]

Declined

Endorsements

John Lewis

Primary results

Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Lewis 42,588 59.84
Democratic John Driscoll28,58040.16
Total votes71,168 100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ryan
Zinke (R)		John
Lewis (D)		Mike
Fellows (L)		Undecided
Gravis Marketing [31] October 23–24, 2014604± 4%53%41%—6%
The MSU-Billings Poll [32] October 6–11, 2014410± 5%40%33%2%25%
Gravis Marketing [33] September 29–30, 2014535± 4%51%41%—8%
Vox Populi Polling [34] August 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%44%37%—19%
Gravis Marketing [35] July 20–22, 2014741± 4%47%35%6%11%
Public Policy Polling [36] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%32%—30%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Brad
Johnson (R)		John
Lewis (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [36] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%43%32%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Matthew
Rosendale (R)		John
Lewis (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [36] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%32%—31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Corey
Stapleton (R)		John
Lewis (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [36] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%44%31%—25%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [37] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg [38] Safe ROctober 24, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Likely ROctober 30, 2014
RCP Likely RNovember 2, 2014
Daily Kos Elections [40] Safe RNovember 4, 2014

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2014 [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ryan Zinke 203,871 55.41% +2.16%
Democratic John Lewis148,69040.41%−2.13%
Libertarian Mike Fellows 15,4024.18%+0.15%
Total votes367,963 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ↑ Raju, Manu (November 5, 2013). "Steve Daines to announce Senate bid". POLITICO. Retrieved November 5, 2013.
  2. ↑ "Conservative state senator to run for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune . January 25, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  3. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (October 15, 2013). "Rosendale launches House race". Independent Record . Retrieved October 21, 2013.
  4. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (September 3, 2013). "Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines #MTSEN". Roll Call . Retrieved October 21, 2013.
  5. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (November 22, 2013). "Helena man becomes 5th Republican in U.S. House". Missoulian . Retrieved December 5, 2013.
  6. ↑ Lutey, Tom (October 21, 2013). "Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House". Missoulian . Retrieved October 21, 2013.
  7. ↑ "Former GOP Secretary of State Brad Johnson to run for PSC". Helenair. January 30, 2014.
  8. ↑ "Steve Daines Announces 2014 Senate Run". Huffington Post. November 6, 2013.
  9. ↑ Catlett, Ron (December 4, 2013). "Champ Edmunds Will Challenge Daines in Montana GOP Senate Primary". Mediatrackers. Archived from the original on March 26, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Rehberg will not run in 2014". MTN News. January 13, 2014. Archived from the original on January 15, 2014. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
  11. 1 2 "Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run". Billings Gazette. October 3, 2013.
  12. ↑ PPP
  13. 1 2 "2014 Statewide Montana Primary Election Canvas" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 28, 2014. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  14. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (March 7, 2014). "Former Democratic lawmaker John Driscoll to run for U.S. House". Billings Gazette . Retrieved March 9, 2014.
  15. ↑ "Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat". The Missoulian. August 26, 2013.
  16. ↑ "Pat Williams challenges trio of Senate candidates". KAJ18.com. December 18, 2013. Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. Retrieved December 19, 2013.
  17. 1 2 3 "Speculation: Democrats For U.S. House". Montana Street Fighter. May 26, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  18. ↑ "U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. Retrieved October 5, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Missoula Mayor Engen ready for next term". KPAX.com. November 6, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2013.[ permanent dead link ]
  20. ↑ "Race For U.S. House In MT Could Be Worth Watching". Montana Street Fighter. July 22, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  21. ↑ Rulon Herman, Malia (December 4, 2013). "Former Montana legislator Gillan named HHS regional head". Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved December 11, 2013.
  22. ↑ "Juneau latest Montana Dem to reject US Senate run". Missoulian. August 5, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  23. ↑ "Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Missoulian. July 16, 2013.
  24. ↑ "Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run". missoulian.com. July 15, 2013.
  25. ↑ "Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D) to run for Senate". The Washington Post. October 3, 2013.
  26. 1 2 3 Trygstad, Kyle (August 13, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid". Roll Call.
  27. ↑ "After spending the past several weeks speaking..." Facebook. September 9, 2013.
  28. 1 2 3 "Top Montana Democrats endorse Lewis for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune. December 4, 2013. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
  29. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (March 10, 2014). "Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House". Missoulian . Retrieved March 11, 2014.
  30. ↑ "White Wolf dropping out of House race". Montana Wacko Birds. January 10, 2014. Retrieved January 13, 2014.
  31. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  32. ↑ The MSU-Billings Poll
  33. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  34. ↑ Vox Populi Polling
  35. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  36. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  37. ↑ "2014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
  38. ↑ "2014 House Ratings (October 24, 2014)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  39. ↑ "2014 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 10, 2014. Retrieved April 11, 2014.
  40. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 4, 2014.
  41. ↑ "2014 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. November 4, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2018.

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