2008 United States Senate election in Montana

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2008 United States Senate election in Montana
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←  2002 November 4, 2008 2014  →
  Portrait of Ambassador Max Baucus.jpg Bob Kelleher (cropped).jpg
Nominee Max Baucus Bob Kelleher
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote345,937128,762
Percentage72.92%27.08%
2008 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Baucus:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Max Baucus
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Max Baucus
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Max Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despite Republican John McCain's narrow victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014, after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. Ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.

Contents

Background

Montana generally gives its presidential electors to Republican candidates, but historically has elected several prominent Democrats to the United States Senate, including Thomas Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, Mike Mansfield, and Lee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served as U.S. Senator from Montana, Zales Ecton and Conrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. In the 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives in Montana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Max Baucus (incumbent) 165,050 100.00%
Total votes165,050 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign. [2]

Results

Republican primary results [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bob Kelleher 26,936 36.32%
Republican Michael Lange17,04422.98%
Republican Kirk Bushman15,50720.91%
Republican Patty Lovaas7,63210.29%
Republican Anton Pearson4,2575.74%
Republican Garnett Shay2,7883.76%
Total votes74,164 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney and perennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher was pro-life, advocated a parliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and a single-payer health care system. [3] He received no support from the Montana Republican Party. [4]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [5] Safe DOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [6] Safe DOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [7] Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [8] Safe DNovember 4, 2008

Polling

Poll SourceDates administeredMax
Baucus (D)		Bob
Kelleher (R)
Rasmussen Reports [9] September 7, 200864%31%
Public Policy Polling [10] November 2, 200871%26%

Results

General election results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Max Baucus (incumbent) 348,289 72.92% +10.18%
Republican Bob Kelleher 129,36927.08%−4.65%
Total votes477,658 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Brown, Bob (June 4, 2002). "2002 Statewide Primary Canvass" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 11, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  2. ↑ Gouras, Matt (March 26, 2008). "Recors Show Baucus Challenger has Outstanding Warrant in Indiana". Flathead Beacon. Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2010.
  3. ↑ McKee, Jennifer (June 5, 2008). "16th time a charm for veteran candidate". Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved July 2, 2008.
  4. ↑ Johnson, Chuck. "Frequent candidate Kelleher dies at 88". Archived from the original on June 4, 2011. Retrieved September 10, 2012.
  5. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  7. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  8. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  9. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  10. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  11. ↑ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives". Archived from the original on June 29, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
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