2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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  Kay Hagan official photo.jpg Elizabeth Dole official photo.jpg
Nominee Kay Hagan Elizabeth Dole
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,249,3111,887,510
Percentage52.65%44.18%
2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina results map by county.svg
NC Senate 2008.svg
Hagan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Dole:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Dole
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kay Hagan
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Senate election coincided with the presidential, U.S. House elections, gubernatorial, Council of State, and statewide judicial elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Kay Hagan. [1]

Contents

The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the only Democrat to win this seat since 1966, and the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election. As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat was elected U.S. Senator in North Carolina.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole. [2]

National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. A late October 2007 Rasmussen Report poll showed Easley defeating Dole 50% to 42%. [3] [4] Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007. [5] [6] Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole. [7] [8]

Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly. [9]

Results

Democratic primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kay Hagan 801,920 60.1%
Democratic Jim Neal239,62318.0%
Democratic Marcus W. Williams170,97012.8%
Democratic Duskin Lassiter62,1364.6%
Democratic Howard Staley60,4034.5%
Total votes1,335,052 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) 460,665 90.0%
Republican Pete DiLauro51,40610.0%
Total votes512,071 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Dole's attack ad, "Godless". Doleattackad.JPG
Dole's attack ad, "Godless".

Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole. [7] [8] Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election. [11]

Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole. [8] The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season. [8] However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan. [12] The efforts appeared to be effective, as Hagan began to take the lead in several polls beginning in September.

In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God." [13] [14] The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game." [15]

Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher, [14] condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC." [16] Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel. [17] [18]

The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner." [19] The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous," [20] "indecent," [21] a "gross misrepresentation," [22] "worse than dishonest" [23] and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement," [23] among other harsh criticism. [24] Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning." [25] The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole. [26] Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls. [26]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [27] TossupOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [28] Lean D (flip)October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [29] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [30] TossupNovember 2, 2008

Polling

Hagan on the campaign trail Hagen at Obama rally.jpg
Hagan on the campaign trail

Polls released during the week of October 28, 2008 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart). [2]

Poll sourceDates administeredKay
Hagan (D)		Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Public Policy Polling February 18, 200833%50%
Rasmussen Reports April 10, 200839%52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos April 28–30, 200841%48%
Rasmussen Reports May 8, 200848%47%
Public Policy Polling May 8–9, 200843%48%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		May 14–17, 200843%45%
Survey USA May 17–19, 200846%50%
Public Policy Polling May 28–29, 200839%47%
Anzalone Liszt Research June 4, 200844%48%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 200839%53%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		June 11–13, 200838%48%
The Tarrance Group July 9, 200836%51%
Survey USA July 14, 200842%54%
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 200843%54%
Public Policy Polling July 23–27, 200840%49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28–30, 200842%50%
Insider Advantage August 19, 200840%40%
Public Policy Polling August 23, 200842%39%
Democracy Corps August 26, 200850%45%
Survey USA September 8, 200840%48%
Daily Kos/Research 2000 September 10, 200842%48%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 200851%45%
Public Policy Polling September 19, 200846%41%
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 200848%45%
Public Policy Polling September 28–29, 200846%38%
Survey USA October 5–6, 200843%44%
Rasmussen Reports October 8, 200849%44%
Survey USA October 20, 200846%45%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 200852%46%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31-Nov 2, 200851%44%
Survey USA November 2, 200850%43%

Results

2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kay Hagan 2,249,311 52.65% +7.7%
Republican Elizabeth Dole (incumbent)1,887,51044.18%-9.4%
Libertarian Chris Cole133,4303.17%+2.1%
Write-in 1,7190.0%0.0%
Total votes4,271,970 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss. [32] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Elizabeth Dole</span> American politician and writer (born 1936)

Mary Elizabeth Alexander Dole is an American attorney, author, and politician who served as a United States Senator from North Carolina from 2003 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, she previously served in five presidential administrations, including as U.S. Secretary of Transportation under President Ronald Reagan from 1983 to 1987 and as U.S. Secretary of Labor under Reagan's successor, George H. W. Bush, from 1989 until 1990. Dole then left government to serve as president of the American Red Cross from 1991 to 1999; she departed from that position to seek the Republican nomination in the 2000 presidential election but eventually withdrew from the race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mike Easley</span> 72nd governor of North Carolina

Michael Francis Easley is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 72nd governor of North Carolina from 2001 to 2009. He is the first governor of North Carolina to have been convicted of a felony. The conviction was later expunged by the Chief Judge of the Superior Court of Wake County. A member of the Democratic Party, Easley was North Carolina's second Catholic governor.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kay Hagan</span> American lawyer, banking executive, and politician (1953–2019)

Janet Kay Hagan was an American lawyer, banking executive, and politician who served as a United States Senator from North Carolina from 2009 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served in the North Carolina Senate from 1999 to 2009. By defeating Republican Elizabeth Dole in the 2008 election, she became the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election. She ran for reelection in 2014 but lost to Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, in a close race.

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Chris Cole is a Libertarian Party activist in North Carolina. He has run unsuccessfully for a number of local, state, and federal offices. In 2008, it was thought that his candidacy might act as a spoiler in what was expected to be a close U.S. Senate race.

Negative campaigning is the process of deliberately spreading negative information about someone or something to worsen the public image of the described. A colloquial, and somewhat more derogatory, term for the practice is mudslinging.

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References

  1. ↑ Libertarian Party of NC press release: Libertarians File List of 2008 Candidates Archived September 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  2. 1 2 "Perdue tries to whistle up a Mayberry miracle". Raleigh News and Observer. October 28, 2008. Retrieved October 28, 2008.[ dead link ]
  3. ↑ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on October 26, 2007. Retrieved November 10, 2007.
  4. ↑ Dan Kane; Rob Christensen; J. Andrew Curliss (January 25, 2007). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". The News & Observer . Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. Retrieved February 5, 2007.
  5. ↑ newsobserver.com | Miller looking at Senate race Archived May 1, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ↑ Draft dodger? | newsobserver.com projects Archived May 1, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  7. 1 2 2008 Election Challenge.
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Is the Southern Strategy Dead?". American Prospect. October 24, 2008. Archived from the original on August 10, 2011. Retrieved October 26, 2008.
  9. ↑ "Profile of U.S. Senate Candidate Jim Neal". News & Observer . October 4, 2007. Archived from the original on June 1, 2008. Retrieved March 18, 2008.
  10. 1 2 NC State Board of Elections website
  11. ↑ "Scrambling the red states". The Economist. October 23, 2008. Retrieved October 23, 2008.
  12. ↑ "Elizabeth Dole: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary." OpenSecrets http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00008071&newMem=N&cycle=
  13. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh. Hagan's campaign says the ad sought to put inflammatory words in their candidate's mouth; The Dole campaign says the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds.Dole still keeping the faith. The Politico. October 29, 2008.
  14. 1 2 Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
  15. ↑ Bob Dole Defends "Godless" TV Ad. Small Business VoIP. November 1, 2008.
  16. ↑ KayHagan.com. Kay on Dole Ad Attacking Her Christian Faith: A Fabricated, Pathetic Ad Archived May 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine . October 30, 2008.
  17. ↑ Dole Sued for 'Godless' Attack Ad Archived January 20, 2016, at the Wayback Machine , ABC News. October 30, 2008.
  18. ↑ Dole challenger irate over suggestion she is "godless". CNN.com. October 30, 2008.
  19. ↑ Brown, Campbell. Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected. CNN.com. October 29, 2008.
  20. ↑ Frank, James. Dole 'Godless' ad shows progress, sort of Archived November 8, 2008, at the Wayback Machine . Chicago Tribune. October 31, 2008.
  21. ↑ Dole's desperate turn to Big Lie advertising Archived April 18, 2009, at the Stanford Web Archive . The Charlotte Observer. October 30, 2008.
  22. ↑ As election nears, negative ads a distraction [ permanent dead link ]. Asheville Citizen-Times. October 30, 2008.
  23. 1 2 Editorial: Dole's attack on Hagan's faith drives heated campaign lower. Greensboro News & Record. October 30, 2008.
  24. ↑ ELIZABETH DOLE ATTACKS KAY HAGAN'S CHRISTIAN FAITH Archived August 26, 2013, at the Wayback Machine . AmericanChronicle.com. November 2, 2008.
  25. ↑ Dole's new ads set the low mark in negative political campaigning. The Fayetteville Observer. October 15, 2008.
  26. 1 2 "Dole's mistake: 'Godless' ad drove donors, voters to Hagan". Miami Herald . November 11, 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2008.[ dead link ]
  27. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  28. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  29. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  30. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  31. ↑ NC State Board of Elections website
  32. ↑ Barbara Barrett (November 5, 2008). "N.C. voters deny Dole, elect Hagan to U.S. Senate". Miami Herald . Retrieved November 5, 2008.
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