2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

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2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
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  Jay Nixon (cropped).jpg Rep Kenny Hulshof (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,680,6611,136,364
Percentage58.40%39.49%
2008 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2008 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
2008 Missouri Governor By Precinct.svg
Nixon:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hulshof:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Matt Blunt
Republican

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Despite John McCain narrowly carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election, Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof in a landslide.

Contents

Background

On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election [1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."

A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating. [2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%. [2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor. [3]

The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008. [4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'. [5]

Timeline

Primaries

Republican primary

Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kenny Hulshof 194,556 49.2
Republican Sarah Steelman 176,75044.7
Republican Scott Long18,7454.7
Republican Jen Sievers5,6641.4
Total votes395,715 100.0

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Nixon 303,796 85.0
Democratic Daniel Carroll53,76815.0
Total votes357,564 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [8] Lean D (flip)October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [9] Likely D (flip)November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] Lean D (flip)November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics [11] Likely D (flip)November 4, 2008

Polling

SourceDateKenny
Hulshof (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)
Public Policy Polling [12] November 2, 200838%58%
Survey USA [13] November 2, 200839%54%
Survey USA [14] October 26, 200838%55%
Rasmussen Reports [15] October 14, 200838%57%
Survey USA [16] September 24, 200837%54%
Rasmussen Reports [15] September 11, 200839%54%
Public Policy Polling [17] August 17, 200842%48%
Survey USA [18] July 31, 200842%48%
Rasmussen Reports [15] July 7, 200838%49%
Rasmussen [19] June 9, 200834%54%
Survey USA [20] May 20, 200833%57%
Rasmussen [21] May 8, 200835%51%
Rasmussen [22] March 24, 200837%48%
Rasmussen [23] February 13, 200830%48%
Hypothetical polling

With Steelman

SourceDateSarah
Steelman (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)
Survey USA [18] July 31, 200841%50%
Rasmussen Reports [15] July 7, 200837%46%
Rasmussen [19] June 9, 200834%56%
Survey USA [20] May 20, 200833%58%
Rasmussen [21] May 8, 200835%51%
Rasmussen [22] March 24, 200839%46%
Rasmussen [23] February 13, 200835%46%

With Blunt

SourceDateMatt
Blunt (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)
Rasmussen Reports [24] December 12, 200742%47%
Research2000 [25] November 24, 200742%51%
Rasmussen [26] October 10, 200744%43%
Rasmussen [26] August 23, 200743%46%
SurveyUSA [27] July 25–27, 200738%57%

Results

On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat Barack Obama lost in Missouri in the concurrent presidential election (albeit by only 4,000 votes). Nixon was able to perform well in rural parts of the state. When combined with heavily populated, strong Democratic areas like St. Louis and Kansas City, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jay Nixon 1,680,611 58.4 +10.6
Republican Kenny Hulshof 1,136,36439.5−11.3
Libertarian Andrew Finkenstadt31,8501.1+0.2
Constitution Gregory Thompson28,9411.0+0.6
Write-in 120.0n/a
Total votes2,877,778 100.0 n/a
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ↑ Shelton, Missy (January 22, 2008). "Governor Matt Blunt Will Not Seek Re-election". KSMU . Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
  2. 1 2 Survey USA
  3. ↑ Article [ permanent dead link ] by Columbia Daily Tribune: Document points to Nixon run
  4. ↑ August 5, 2008 State Primary Election Information Missouri Secretary of State
  5. ↑ Dems Gain in Five of Six New CQ Politics Rating Changes Archived 2008-10-12 at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics, October 8, 2008
  6. 1 2 3 2008 Missouri Election Calendar from the Missouri Secretary of State
  7. ↑ "Aug 5, 2008 Primary Election : Election Night Map : Missouri Secretary of State". Archived from the original on August 9, 2008. Retrieved August 6, 2008.
  8. ↑ "2008 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 4, 2021.
  9. ↑ "2008 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2021.
  10. ↑ "THE LAST LAST WORD The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 25, 2021.
  11. ↑ "2008 Missouri Governor Race". RealClearPolitics. November 4, 2008. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  12. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  13. ↑ Survey USA
  14. ↑ Survey USA
  15. 1 2 3 4 Rasmussen Reports
  16. ↑ Survey USA
  17. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  18. 1 2 Survey USA
  19. 1 2 Rasmussen
  20. 1 2 Survey USA
  21. 1 2 Rasmussen
  22. 1 2 Rasmussen
  23. 1 2 Rasmussen
  24. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  25. ↑ Research2000 [ usurped ]
  26. 1 2 Rasmussen
  27. ↑ SurveyUSA
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