2008 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire

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2008 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2006 November 4, 2008 2010  

All 2 New Hampshire seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election20
Seats won20
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svg
Popular vote364,767294,560
Percentage54.08%43.67%
SwingIncrease2.svg 2.07%Decrease2.svg 3.42%

2006 House elections (1).svg
2008 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire by county.svg
New Hampshire House Results 2008 by Municipality.svg

The 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire were held on November 4, 2008, to determine who would represent the state of New Hampshire in the United States House of Representatives during the 111th Congress from January 3, 2009, until January 3, 2011. Both seats were held by Democratic incumbents before the election, which coincided with the 2008 presidential election, as well as the state's senatorial and gubernatorial elections.

Contents

The primary election was held on September 9, 2008. Republicans selected Former Representative Jeb Bradley and newspaper columnist and radio show host Jennifer Horn to challenge incumbent Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes. Although CQ Politics had forecast the First Congressional District to be at risk for a change of party control, both incumbents were re-elected.

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire, 2008 [1]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Democratic 364,76754.08%2-
Republican 294,56043.67%0-
Libertarian 15,2212.26%0-
Totals674,548100.00%2-

Match-up summary

DistrictIncumbent2010 StatusDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
1 Carol Shea-Porter Re-election Carol Shea-Porter Jeb Bradley Robert Kingsbury
2 Paul Hodes Re-election Paul Hodes Jennifer Horn Chester L. Lapointe, II

District 1

Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D) Carol Shea-Porter, official 110th Congress photo portrait.jpg
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Former Congressman Jeb Bradley (R) Jeb Bradley.jpg
Former Congressman Jeb Bradley (R)

This district covers the southeastern and eastern portions of New Hampshire, consisting of three general areas: Greater Manchester, the Seacoast and the Lakes Region. It includes all of Carroll and Strafford counties, almost all of Rockingham county, a small portion of Hillsborough County, and one town in Merrimack County.

Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter defeated Republican nominee Jeb Bradley and Libertarian Robert Kingsbury. CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'No Clear Favorite'; The Rothenberg Political Report ranked the race as 'Pure Toss-Up'; and The Cook Political Report listed the race as a 'Democratic Toss-Up'.

Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress by a 51% to 49% margin against incumbent Republican Bradley in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle. In January 2007, Bradley announced his intent to seek a rematch in 2008. He faced and defeated Former Assistant Attorney General and Department of Health and Human Services commissioner John Stephen in a close Republican primary. Shea-Porter did not face a primary challenge. George W. Bush narrowly won this district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+0).

Republican primary

2008 New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Republican primary election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jeb Bradley18,55951.04%
Republican John Stephen16,76646.11%
Republican Geoff Michael5341.47%
Republican Dave Jarvis4141.14%
Independent Other89*0.24%
Turnout 36,362100%

General Election

Opinion Polling

SourceDateDemocrat: Carol Shea-PorterRepublican: Jeb BradleyUndecided
Concord Monitor/Research 2000 [2] September 22–24, 200844%43%
WMUR Granite State Poll [3] September 14–21, 200842%45%12%
Granite State Poll [4] July 11–20, 200840%46%14%
Granite State Poll [5] April 25–30, 200839%45%13%

The University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll conducted in July found that incumbent Representative Carol Shea-Porter had a +3% net favorability rating in the district (35% favorable, 32% unfavorable, 9% neutral, and 24% did not know enough about her) while Former Representative Jeb Bradley had a net favorability rating of +21% (48% favorable, 27% unfavorable, 8% neutral, and 17% did not know enough about him). The majority of Republicans supported Bradley, Democrats supported Shea-Porter, and Independents were leaning toward Bradley (40% to 26%). Shea-Porter led among women (46% to 36%) and Bradley led among men (56% to 34%).

In September, the fall Granite State Poll found that Shea-Porter's net favorability had increased to +13% (44% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 5% neutral, and 20% did not know enough about her), while Bradley's favorability has fallen to +7% (36% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 14% neutral, and 21% did not know enough about him). The majority of Republicans supported Bradley, Democrats supported Shea-Porter, and Independents were leaning toward Bradley (44% to 38%). Shea-Porter continued to lead among women (50% to 39%) and Bradley maintained his lead among men (52% to 32%).

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [6] TossupNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg [7] Tilt DNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] Lean DNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [9] TossupNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics [10] TossupNovember 6, 2008

Results

2008 New Hampshire 1st Congressional District General Election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Carol Shea-Porter (Incumbent)176,43551.73%+0.4%
Republican Jeb Bradley156,33845.84%−2.76%
Libertarian Robert Kingsbury8,1002.37%+2.37%
Turnout 341,071100.00%
Democratic hold Swing

Current Candidate Websites

Former Candidate Websites

District 2

2008 New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2006
2010  
  Congressman Paul Hodes.JPG 3x4.svg
Nominee Paul Hodes Jennifer Horn
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote188,332138,222
Percentage56.4%41.4%

2008 NH-02 election results.svg
Municipality results
Hodes:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Horn:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%     No Votes

U.S. Representative before election

Paul Hodes
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Paul Hodes
Democratic

This district consists of the western and northern portions of the state, including all of Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan counties as well as almost all of Merrimack and Hillsborough counties plus three towns in Rockingham county and two towns in Belknap County.

Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes defeated Republican nominee Jennifer Horn and Libertarian Chester L. Lapointe, II. CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Democrat Favored'. In 2006, Democrat Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass with a 53% to 45% victory. In 2008 Jennifer Horn, a radio talk show host, [11] won the Republican primary against former Congressional Aide Grant Bosse, State Senator Bob Clegg, businessman Jim Steiner and Alfred L'Eplattenier. [12] John Kerry narrowly won the district with 52% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=D+3).

Republican primary

2008 New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District Republican primary election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jennifer Horn12,66740.29%
Republican Bob Clegg10,73134.13%
Republican Jim Steiner4,56114.51%
Republican Grant Bosse2,9449.36%
Republican Alfred L'Eplattenier5401.72%
Turnout 31,443100%

General Election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [6] Safe DNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg [7] Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] Lean DNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics [9] Safe DNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics [10] Likely DNovember 6, 2008
2008 New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District General Election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Paul Hodes (Incumbent)188,33256.4%+3.4%
Republican Jennifer Horn138,22241.4%−3.6%
Libertarian Chester L. Lapointe, II7,1212.1%+0.1%
Turnout 333,675100.00%
Democratic hold Swing

Current candidates

Paul Hodes (D) - Incumbent (campaign website)
Jennifer Horn (R) (campaign website Archived August 4, 2008, at the Wayback Machine )
Chester L. Lapointe, II (L) (campaign website)

Former candidates

Grant Bosse (R) (campaign website)
Robert Clegg, Jr. (R) (campaign website)
Jim Steiner (R) (campaign website)
Alfred L'Eplattenier (R) (campaign website)

References

  1. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2008" (PDF). p. 40.
  2. Concord Monitor/Research 2000
  3. WMUR Granite State Poll
  4. Granite State Poll
  5. Granite State Poll
  6. 1 2 "2008 Competitive House Race Chart". House: Race Ratings. The Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  7. 1 2 "2008 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 2, 2006. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  8. 1 2 "2008 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2008. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  9. 1 2 "Battle for the House of Representatives". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2008. Archived from the original on December 17, 2008. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
  10. 1 2 "Race Ratings Chart: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  11. mediainfo.com [ permanent dead link ]
  12. Brooks, Scott Horn tops 3 foes in Republican race Archived May 22, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Union Leader , September 10, 2008

Race rankings