2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
← IA HI →
17 pledged Republican National Convention delegates
	New Hampshire results by county ; McCain: McCain 40-50% McCain 50-60%

Last updated November 03, 2024

The 2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary took place on February 1, 2000. New Hampshire traditionally served as the second state in a presidential primary cycle, after the Iowa. Senator John McCain of Arizona who had diverted resources from Iowa to focus on securing victory in New Hampshire, won a surprising victory, defeating the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Governor George W. Bush of Texas.^[1]^[2]

Background

Historical context

New Hampshire's presidential primary had served as a crucial early test for presidential candidates since 1920. The state's traditional position following the Iowa caucuses had created a unique political environment where retail politics dominated, requiring candidates to engage in intimate town hall meetings and direct voter interactions. This tradition would prove particularly significant in the 2000 campaign.^[3]

Pre-primary campaign

The 2000 primary field featured several prominent Republican candidates, led by Texas Governor George W. Bush, who entered the race with substantial financial resources and broad establishment support. As the son of former President George H. W. Bush, he carried both the advantages and potential drawbacks of his family name. Senator John McCain positioned himself as a maverick reformer, while publishing executive Steve Forbes returned for a second campaign after his 1996 bid. The field also included former diplomat Alan Keyes and social conservative activist Gary Bauer.^[2]

McCain's campaign strategy centered on his "Straight Talk Express" bus tour, which became the defining symbol of his New Hampshire campaign. During his intensive focus on the state, McCain conducted more than 114 town hall meetings, a stark contrast to Bush's 36 days of campaigning in the state.^[1] McCain's emphasis on campaign finance reform, government reform, and his compelling biography as a Vietnam War veteran and former prisoner of war resonated strongly with New Hampshire voters.^[2]

Campaign dynamics

Strategy and messaging

The McCain campaign's emphasis on direct voter engagement through the "Straight Talk Express" created a media phenomenon that transformed the race. Reporters received unprecedented access to the candidate, leading to extensive favorable coverage that helped shape McCain's image as an authentic, accessible candidate. The constant media presence on his campaign bus created a narrative of transparency and openness that contrasted with the more controlled environment of the Bush campaign.^[2]

Bush's campaign stressed his record as Texas governor and promoted his "compassionate conservative" platform, emphasizing tax cuts, education reform, and social conservative values. However, his decision to skip two in-state debates and his relatively limited public appearances in New Hampshire would later be cited as crucial strategic errors.^[2] The presence of his father on the campaign trail, while intended to showcase family strength, inadvertently reinforced criticisms that he was overly reliant on his family's political legacy.^[1]

Results

**Primary results**^[4]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
John McCain	115,606	48.53%	10
George W. Bush	72,330	30.36%	5
Steve Forbes	30,166	12.66%	2
Alan Keyes	15,179	6.37%	0
Gary Bauer	566	0.69%	0
Total	237,640	100%	17

Analysis

McCain's victory marked the largest margin in the New Hampshire primary since Ronald Reagan's win in the 1980 campaign and represented a significant setback for the Bush campaign.^[1] Exit polling revealed that McCain dominated among independent voters, securing more than sixty percent of their support. These independent voters constituted forty percent of the primary electorate. Perhaps more surprisingly, McCain achieved parity with Bush among registered Republicans, a voting bloc the Bush campaign had considered their reliable base.^[1]

The demographic breakdown showed McCain's particular strength among moderate voters, while Bush maintained an advantage with conservatives, though not by a sufficient margin to overcome McCain's broader coalition.^[2] Veterans and higher-education voters showed particular enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy, responding to his military service and reform message.

Bush campaign officials attributed their defeat primarily to McCain's strategic decision to concentrate resources in New Hampshire while largely bypassing Iowa. Internal campaign assessments also suggested that Governor Bush's appearances with his father, former President George H. W. Bush, may have backfired by emphasizing dynasty politics over individual merit.^[1] The Voter News Service analysis showed that Bush's decision to skip two candidate debates had damaged his standing with local voters who traditionally expect significant personal attention from presidential candidates.^[2]

Aftermath

The Bush campaign responded to their New Hampshire defeat by pivoting to a more aggressive strategy focused on the upcoming South Carolina primary. This strategic shift would include a stronger emphasis on Bush's evangelical Christian faith and the deployment of more confrontational campaign tactics.^[1] The campaign also intensified its ground operations and voter outreach efforts in upcoming Southern primary states.

Gary Bauer, following his disappointing showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire, withdrew from the race and endorsed John McCain, though this would prove insufficient to maintain McCain's momentum in later contests. The endorsement highlighted growing divisions within the social conservative movement, as other prominent conservatives, including Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, aligned with Bush.^[5]

The primary results triggered a significant shift in campaign fundraising patterns. McCain's victory led to a surge in small-dollar donations through his newly established online platform, while Bush relied increasingly on his network of PAC supporters and traditional party donors.^[6]

Despite McCain's commanding victory in New Hampshire and a subsequent win in Michigan, Bush would eventually secure the Republican nomination through strong performances in the Southern primaries and support from the party establishment. Bush went on to win the presidency in the highly contested general election against Democratic nominee Al Gore.^[7]

The aftermath of the New Hampshire primary also influenced the Democratic contest, as Bill Bradley's narrow loss to Al Gore in the concurrent Democratic primary effectively ended his chances of securing his party's nomination. The dual primaries highlighted New Hampshire's continuing role as a crucial early test in presidential politics, capable of both validating frontrunners and enabling surprising insurgent victories.^[1]

Legacy

The 2000 New Hampshire primary has become a case study in the importance of retail politics and the potential vulnerability of establishment frontrunners in early primary states. McCain's "Straight Talk Express" established a new standard for media access in presidential campaigns, though few candidates have since attempted to replicate its open-access model. The primary also demonstrated the continuing significance of independent voters in New Hampshire's open primary system, a factor that continues to influence campaign strategies in subsequent election cycles.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2000 United States presidential election</span> 54th quadrennial U.S. presidential election

The 2000 United States presidential election was the 54th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 2000. The Republican nominee, Governor George W. Bush of Texas, the eldest son of George H. W. Bush, narrowly defeated incumbent Democratic Vice President Al Gore. It was the fourth of five U.S. presidential elections, and the first since 1888, in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote, and is considered one of the closest U.S. presidential elections, with long-standing controversy about the result. Gore conceded the election on December 13.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1992 United States presidential election</span> 52nd quadrennial U.S. presidential election

The 1992 United States presidential election was the 52nd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 1992. Democratic governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican president George H. W. Bush and independent businessman Ross Perot of Texas. The election marked the end of a period of Republican dominance in American presidential politics that began in 1968, and also marked the end of 12 years of Republican rule of the White House, as well as the end of the Greatest Generation's 32-year American rule and the beginning of the baby boomers' 28-year dominance until 2020. It was the last time the incumbent president failed to win a second term until Donald Trump in 2020, as well as the first election since 1932 in which an elected incumbent Republican president was defeated.

Each of the 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five territories of the United States holds either primary elections or caucuses to help nominate individual candidates for president of the United States. This process is designed to choose the candidates that will represent their political parties in the general election.

The 2000 presidential campaign of George W. Bush, the then-governor of Texas, was formally launched on June 14, 1999 as Governor Bush, the eldest son of former President George H. W. Bush, announced his intention to seek the Republican Party nomination for the presidency of the United States in the 2000 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States presidential election</span> 56th quadrennial U.S. presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election was the 56th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, and Joe Biden, the senior senator from Delaware, defeated the Republican ticket of John McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, and Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. Obama became the first African American to be elected to the presidency. This was the first election since 1952 in which neither the incumbent president nor vice president was on the ballot, as well as the first election since 1928 in which neither ran for the nomination.

The New Hampshire presidential primary is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest, the first being the Iowa caucuses, held in the United States every four years as part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held in November. Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives, along with the first caucus in Iowa.

From January 3 to June 3, 2008, voters of the Republican Party chose their nominee for president in the 2008 United States presidential election. Senator John McCain of Arizona was selected as the nominee through a series of primary elections and caucuses culminating in the 2008 Republican National Convention held from Monday, September 1, through Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Saint Paul, Minnesota. President George W. Bush was ineligible to be elected to a third term due to the term limits established by the 22nd Amendment.

A brokered convention, in US politics, can occur during a presidential election when a political party fails to choose a nominee on the first round of delegate voting at the party's nominating convention.

From January 29 to June 4, 1996, voters of the Republican Party chose its nominee for president in the 1996 United States presidential election. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, the former Senate majority leader, was selected as the nominee through a series of primary elections and caucuses culminating in the 1996 Republican National Convention held from August 12 to 15, 1996, in San Diego, California. Dole resigned from the Senate in June 1996 once he became the presumptive nominee to concentrate on his presidential campaign. He chose Jack Kemp as his running mate.

The 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

The 2008 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary took place on January 8, 2008, with 12 national delegates being allocated proportionally to the popular vote.

The 2000 presidential campaign of John McCain, the United States Senator from Arizona, began in September 1999. He announced his run for the Republican Party nomination for the presidency of the United States in the 2000 presidential election.

From January 24 to June 6, 2000, voters of the Republican Party chose its nominee for president in the 2000 United States presidential election. Texas Governor George W. Bush was selected as the nominee through a series of primary elections and caucuses culminating in the 2000 Republican National Convention held from July 31 to August 3, 2000, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

The 2000 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 24, 2000. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a straw poll. The Iowa caucuses marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2000 United States presidential election.

The South Carolina Republican primary, 2000 was held on February 19, 2000, with 37 delegates at stake. South Carolina would prove to be a crucially important state for then-Gov. George W. Bush after losing to Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire by 18 points. Bush won the South Carolina primary by an 11.5% margin, and took the lion's share of the delegates at stake.

The 2000 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on Election Day on November 7, 2000, as part of the 2000 United States presidential election. The two major candidates were Texas Governor George W. Bush of the Republican Party and Vice President Al Gore of the Democratic Party. When all votes were tallied, Bush was declared the winner with a plurality of the vote over Gore, receiving 48% of the vote to Gore's 47%, while Green Party candidate Ralph Nader received almost 4% of the vote in the state. Bush went on to win the election nationwide. Had incumbent Gore come out victorious in New Hampshire with its four electoral votes, he would have won the presidency, regardless of the outcome of Bush v. Gore.

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Since 1980, the Republican Party of the United States has held debates between candidates for the Republican nomination in presidential elections during the primary election season. Unlike debates between party-nominated candidates, which have been organized by the bi-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988, debates between candidates for party nomination are organized by mass media outlets.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Orrin Hatch 2000 presidential campaign</span> American political campaign

The 2000 presidential campaign of Orrin Hatch, a U.S. senator from Utah, officially began on July 1, 1999, with the establishment of an exploratory committee. Hatch had been a senator since 1977 and at the time of his announcement he was a high-ranking official on several Senate committees, most notably the chairman for the Senate Judiciary Committee. He had established himself as a conservative Republican who was known to work with liberal Democrats on major bipartisan bills, such as the 1997 Children's Health Insurance Program bill. From the beginning of his campaign, Hatch stressed his experience in federal government and attacked the perceived lack of experience of the Republican frontrunner, Texas governor George W. Bush. However, numerous commentators noted that Hatch's campaign was unlikely to succeed, due to his late entry into the race and Bush's dominant position in fundraising and opinion polling. Throughout his campaign, Hatch struggled to raise money and consistently polled in the single digits. In January 2000, he came in last place in the Iowa caucuses and announced on January 26 that he was ending his campaign, supporting eventual nominee Bush, who would go on to win the 2000 United States presidential election. Hatch remained in the Senate for several more years following his campaign and in 2015, as the most senior member of the Senate, he became the president pro tempore. In 2019, he decided to retire, ending his 42-year career as the most senior Republican senator ever before dying in 2022.

References

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Berke, Richard L. (February 2, 2000). "McCain Romps in First Primary; Gore Wins, Edging out Bradley". The New York Times . Retrieved October 28, 2023.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Balz, Dan (February 2, 2000). "McCain Stuns Bush in N.H. Primary". The Washington Post . Retrieved October 28, 2023.
↑ Johnson, Richard (2000). "New Hampshire Primary: America's First Look at Presidential Contenders". Political Science Quarterly. 115 (2): 201–218.
↑ "2000 Presidential Republican Primary Election Results - New Hampshire". uselectionatlas. U.S Election Atlas. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
↑ "Social Conservative Leader Bauer Endorses McCain". Los Angeles Times . February 16, 2000.
↑ "McCain Campaign Reports Surge in Online Donations". The Washington Post . February 4, 2000.
↑ Wayne, Stephen (2000). The Road to the White House 2000. Palgrave Macmillan.