2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2022 November 5, 2024 2026  
  Kelly Ayotte, Official Portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped2).jpg Joyce Craig (cropped).jpg
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Joyce Craig
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote436,122360,149
Percentage53.61%44.27%

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Craig:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%

Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elected Governor

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and will succeed incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, who did not seek election to a fifth term. [1] Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Contents

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024. [2] Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.

Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle.

Background

New Hampshire is a blue leaning state in New England, with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in the 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, and easily won re-election in the 2020 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.

This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shaun Fife, farmer [5]
  • Robert McClory, welder [6]
  • Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022 [7]
  • Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [8]
  • Frank Staples, transitional living program owner [6]

Declined

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte

U.S. senators

Governors

State legislators

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$7,301,915$5,499,318$1,677,858
Chuck Morse (R)$1,513,599$1,472,846$40,753
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Debates

DateHostAyotteMorseLink
August 26, 2024 N.H. Institute of Politics ParticipantParticipant YouTube
September 3, 2024 WMUR-TV ParticipantParticipant YouTube

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte
Chuck
Morse
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [22] August 15–19, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%65%21%13% [b]
Saint Anselm College [23] August 13–14, 2024657 (LV)± 3.8%59%25%16%
Emerson College [24] [A] July 26–28, 2024421 (RV)± 4.7%41%26%33%
Praecones Analytica [25] [B] May 15–20, 2024420 (RV)± 6.42%50%28%22%
UMass Lowell [26] January 6–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.65%54%22%23%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte
Robert
Burns
Frank
Edelblut
Chuck
Morse
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023498 (RV)± 4.9%45%3%4%9%3%35%
co/efficient [28] [B] June 14–16, 2023904 (LV)± 3.25%69%9%22%

Results

Results by county:
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Ayotte
50-60%
60-70%
70-80% 2024-nh-governor-republican-primary-by-county.svg
Results by county:
  Ayotte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

Ayotte secured a major [29] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote. [30]

Republican primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 88,117 63.12%
Republican Chuck Morse 47,56734.07%
Republican Shaun Fife8760.63%
Write-in 8670.62%
Republican Robert McClory8390.60%
Republican Frank Staples8090.58%
Republican Richard McMenamon5270.38%
Total votes139,602 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Joyce Craig

Governors

U.S. representatives

New Hampshire cabinet officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Other officials

Labor unions

Cinde Warmington

Governors

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CraigWarmingtonKiper
1Sep. 4, 2024 WMUR-TV Adam Sexton YouTube PPP

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joyce Craig (D)$2,976,496$2,630,738$342,052
Cinde Warmington (D)$2,287,849$2,135,285$152,564
Jon Kiper (D)$58,277$55,985$1,443
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joyce
Craig
Cinde
Warmington
OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [22] August 15–19, 2024809 (LV)± 3.4%39%30%8% [c] 23%
Saint Anselm College [23] August 13–14, 2024670 (LV)± 3.8%37%28%3% [d] 31%
Emerson College [24] [A] July 26–28, 2024433 (RV)± 4.7%33%21%44%
GBAO [50] [C] February 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%25%39%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%30%15%2%52%

Results

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
2024 NH governor dem primary by township.svg
Primary results by county (left) and municipality (right).
  Craig
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
  Warmington
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Kiper
  •   40–50%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
      No Votes
Democratic primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joyce Craig 59,976 47.88%
Democratic Cinde Warmington 52,42041.85%
Democratic Jon Kiper11,7899.41%
Write-in 1,0760.86%
Total votes125,261 100.00%

Third parties and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] TossupOctober 15, 2024
Inside Elections [53] TossupSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
RCP [55] TossupOctober 1, 2024
Elections Daily [56] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [57] Tilt RNovember 1, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Joyce Craig (D)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$21,005,579$18,668,848$2,204,119
Joyce Craig (D)$7,346,371$6,827,299$515,368
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Joyce
Craig (D)
Undecided
[e]
Margin
RealClearPolitics [61] October 21 – November 2, 2024November 3, 202446.8%44.3%8.9%Ayotte +2.5%
270toWin [62] October 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.0%44.0%9.0%Ayotte +3.0%
Average46.9%44.2%8.9%Ayotte +2.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Joyce
Craig (D)
OthersUndecided
Dartmouth College [63] November 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%40%58%2% [f]
University of New Hampshire [64] October 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%48%44%1% [g] 6%
Saint Anselm College [65] October 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 1.9%49%46%2% [h] 3%
Praecones Analytica [66] [B] October 24–26, 2024622 (RV)± 3.9%52%48%
Emerson College [67] [A] October 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%5% [i]
46%43%4% [j] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [68] October 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%45%43%4% [k] 8%
Dartmouth College [69] October 5–18, 20242,196 (RV)± 2.1%46%51%3% [l]
UMass Lowell/YouGov [70] October 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%42%41%4% [m] 14%
Saint Anselm College [71] October 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%47%44%3% [n] 6%
University of New Hampshire [72] September 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%46%47%1% [o] 5%
Saint Anselm College [73] September 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%46%43%5% [p] 6%
September 10, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College [74] [A] November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%43%40%17%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%46%37%17%
Hypothetical polling

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Cinde
Warmington (D)
Undecided
Emerson College [74] [A] November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%19%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%47%34%19%

Results

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [75] [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 436,122 53.61% −3.37%
Democratic Joyce Craig 360,14944.27%+2.80%
Libertarian Stephen Villee16,2021.99%N/A
Write-in 1,0240.13%-0.15%
Total votes813,497 100.00% N/A
Turnout 832,518
Registered electors
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%
  3. Jon Kiper with 8%
  4. Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. "Another Candidate" with 2%
  7. Villee (L) with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 2%
  9. Villee (L) with 5%
  10. Villee (L) with 4%
  11. Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  12. "Another Candidate" with 3%
  13. Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%
  14. "Someone else" with 3%
  15. "Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%
  16. Someone else with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by WHDH-TV
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the NH Journal
  3. Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign

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  58. Mackler, Jessica (September 16, 2024). "EMILYs List Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor of New Hampshire". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  59. "Planned Parenthood NH Action Fund PAC Endorses Governor and Executive Council Candidates Who Will Protect and Expand Access to Reproductive Health Care". Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund. September 12, 2024. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  60. RealClearPolitics
  61. 270toWin
  62. Dartmouth College
  63. University of New Hampshire
  64. Saint Anselm College
  65. Praecones Analytica
  66. Emerson College
  67. UMass Lowell/YouGov
  68. Dartmouth College
  69. UMass Lowell/YouGov
  70. Saint Anselm College
  71. University of New Hampshire
  72. Saint Anselm College
  73. 1 2 Emerson College
  74. https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-governor_3.xls
  75. https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-ballots-cast_6.xls

Official campaign websites