2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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  Governor-elect Kelly Ayotte 2024 (cropped).jpg Joyce Craig (cropped).jpg
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Joyce Craig
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote436,122360,149
Percentage53.61%44.27%
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
2022 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by CD.svg
NH Governor 2024.svg
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Craig:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elected Governor

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024 to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu did not seek re-election to a fifth term. [1]

Contents

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024. [2] Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse, and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.

Ayotte won the general election, defeating Craig by a 9.34% margin. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle. Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Background

New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state in New England with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in 2016 and won re-election in 2018, 2020, and 2022 despite Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 and 2020. Sununu opted not to seek re-election in 2024.

This race was widely considered a tossup due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shaun Fife, farmer [5]
  • Robert McClory, welder [6]
  • Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022 [7]
  • Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [8]
  • Frank Staples, transitional living program owner [6]

Declined

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte

U.S. senators

Governors

State legislators

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$7,301,915$5,499,318$1,677,858
Chuck Morse (R)$1,513,599$1,472,846$40,753
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Debates

DateHostAyotteMorseLink
August 26, 2024 N.H. Institute of Politics ParticipantParticipant YouTube
September 3, 2024 WMUR-TV ParticipantParticipant YouTube

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte		Chuck
Morse		Undecided
University of New Hampshire [22] August 15–19, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%65%21%13% [b]
Saint Anselm College [23] August 13–14, 2024657 (LV)± 3.8%59%25%16%
Emerson College [24] [A] July 26–28, 2024421 (RV)± 4.7%41%26%33%
Praecones Analytica [25] [B] May 15–20, 2024420 (RV)± 6.42%50%28%22%
UMass Lowell [26] January 6–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.65%54%22%23%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte		Robert
Burns		Frank
Edelblut		Chuck
Morse		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023498 (RV)± 4.9%45%3%4%9%3%35%
co/efficient [28] [B] June 14–16, 2023904 (LV)± 3.25%69%–9%22%––

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Ayotte 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2024-nh-governor-republican-primary-by-county.svg
Results by county:
  Ayotte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

Ayotte secured a major [29] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote. [30]

Republican primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 88,117 63.12%
Republican Chuck Morse 47,56734.07%
Republican Shaun Fife8760.63%
Write-in 8670.62%
Republican Robert McClory8390.60%
Republican Frank Staples8090.58%
Republican Richard McMenamon5270.38%
Total votes139,602 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Joyce Craig

Governors

U.S. representatives

New Hampshire cabinet officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Other officials

Labor unions

Cinde Warmington

Governors

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CraigWarmingtonKiper
1Sep. 4, 2024 WMUR-TV Adam Sexton YouTube PPP

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joyce Craig (D)$2,976,496$2,630,738$342,052
Cinde Warmington (D)$2,287,849$2,135,285$152,564
Jon Kiper (D)$58,277$55,985$1,443
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joyce
Craig		Cinde
Warmington		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [22] August 15–19, 2024809 (LV)± 3.4%39%30%8% [c] 23%
Saint Anselm College [23] August 13–14, 2024670 (LV)± 3.8%37%28%3% [d] 31%
Emerson College [24] [A] July 26–28, 2024433 (RV)± 4.7%33%21%–44%
GBAO [50] [C] February 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%25%–39%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%30%15%2%52%

Results

Results by county Craig 40-50% 50-60% Warmington 40-50% 50-60% 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Craig
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Warmington
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Results by municipality Craig 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Warmington 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Kiper 40-50% Tie 40-50% No Votes 2024 NH governor dem primary by township.svg
Results by municipality
  Craig
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
  Warmington
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Kiper
  •   40–50%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
      No Votes
Democratic primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joyce Craig 59,976 47.88%
Democratic Cinde Warmington 52,42041.85%
Democratic Jon Kiper11,7899.41%
Write-in 1,0760.86%
Total votes125,261 100.00%

Third parties and independent candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [3] TossupOctober 15, 2024
Inside Elections [55] TossupSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [56] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
RCP [57] TossupOctober 1, 2024
Elections Daily [58] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [59] Tilt RNovember 1, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Joyce Craig (D)

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$21,005,579$18,668,848$2,204,119
Joyce Craig (D)$7,346,371$6,827,299$515,368
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System [21]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Joyce
Craig (D)		Undecided
[e] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [63] October 21 – November 2, 2024November 3, 202446.8%44.3%8.9%Ayotte +2.5%
270toWin [64] October 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.0%44.0%9.0%Ayotte +3.0%
Average46.9%44.2%8.9%Ayotte +2.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Joyce
Craig (D)		OthersUndecided
Dartmouth College [65] November 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%40%58%2% [f] –
University of New Hampshire [66] October 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%48%44%1% [g] 6%
Saint Anselm College [67] October 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 1.9%49%46%2% [h] 3%
Praecones Analytica [68] [B] October 24–26, 2024622 (RV)± 3.9%52%48%––
Emerson College [69] [A] October 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%5% [i] –
46%43%4% [j] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [70] October 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%45%43%4% [k] 8%
Dartmouth College [71] October 5–18, 20242,196 (RV)± 2.1%46%51%3% [l] –
UMass Lowell/YouGov [72] October 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%42%41%4% [m] 14%
Saint Anselm College [73] October 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%47%44%3% [n] 6%
University of New Hampshire [74] September 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%46%47%1% [o] 5%
Saint Anselm College [75] September 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%46%43%5% [p] 6%
September 10, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College [76] [A] November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%43%40%—17%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%46%37%—17%
Hypothetical polling

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Cinde
Warmington (D)		Undecided
Emerson College [76] [A] November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%19%
Emerson College [27] August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%47%34%19%

Results

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [77] [78]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 436,122 53.61% −3.37%
Democratic Joyce Craig 360,14944.27%+2.80%
Libertarian Stephen Villee16,2021.99%+0.72%
Write-in 1,0240.13%-0.15%
Total votes813,497 100.00% N/A
Turnout 832,518
Registered electors
Republican hold

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Ayotte won both congressional districts, which both elected Democrats. [79]

DistrictAyotteCraigRepresentative
1st 54%44% Chris Pappas
2nd 53%45% Annie Kuster (118th Congress)
Maggie Goodlander (119th Congress)

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%
  3. ↑ Jon Kiper with 8%
  4. ↑ Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ↑ "Another Candidate" with 2%
  7. ↑ Villee (L) with 1%
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ↑ Villee (L) with 5%
  10. ↑ Villee (L) with 4%
  11. ↑ Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  12. ↑ "Another Candidate" with 3%
  13. ↑ Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%
  14. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  15. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%
  16. ↑ Someone else with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by WHDH-TV
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the NH Journal
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor". CBS News. July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". NCSL. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. 1 2 "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte wins GOP primary for New Hampshire governor". The Hill. September 11, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  5. ↑ Sexton, Adam (June 5, 2024). "Republican Shaun Fife files to run for New Hampshire governor". WMUR-TV . Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  6. 1 2 "Democratic cumulative filing as of 06/12/24" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State – Election Division.
  7. ↑ "2024 Election Details". New Hampshire Secretary of State. June 5, 2024.
  8. ↑ Tasolides, Justin (July 19, 2023). "N.H. GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not seek fifth term". Spectrum News . Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  9. ↑ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?". Boston Globe.
  10. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa (August 3, 2023). "Scott Brown isn't done yet". Politico . Retrieved August 3, 2023.
  11. ↑ Dawg, Jay (April 4, 2023). "Edelblut Considering A Run For Governor". The Pulse of NH .
  12. ↑ Edelblut, Frank (September 3, 2023). "America the beautiful. New Hampshire the crown jewel". New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved September 3, 2023. I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.
  13. ↑ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor". CBS News. July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  14. 1 2 Vakil, Caroline (August 7, 2024). "Sununu backs Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary". The Hill . Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  15. 1 2 Wagner, John (July 24, 2023). "Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor". The Washington Post . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  16. ↑ Tenser, Phil (July 24, 2023). "Kelly Ayotte announces 2024 campaign for New Hampshire governor". WCVB-TV 5. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  17. ↑ Sylvia, Andrew (September 8, 2023). "Levasseur, Manchester's GOP State Reps, endorse Ayotte". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  18. ↑ Robidoux, Carol (August 22, 2023). "Ayotte endorsed by Merrimack Republican delegation". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  19. ↑ Bolduc, Don (June 26, 2024). "BOLDUC: Why I'm Endorsing Ayotte for Governor". NH Journal.
  20. ↑ "Rico Petrocelli endorses Ayotte". November 28, 2023. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 "Candidates and Candidate Committees". New Hampshire Campaign Finance System.
  22. 1 2 "University of New Hampshire".
  23. 1 2 "Saint Anselm College Survey Center New Poll Takes A Look At New Hampshire's State and Federal Fall Primary Races". www.anselm.edu.
  24. 1 2 Mumford, Camille (July 31, 2024). "New Hampshire 2024 Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%". Emerson Polling.
  25. ↑ "Praecones Analytica" (PDF).
  26. ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). www.uml.edu.
  27. 1 2 3 4 Mumford, Camille (August 15, 2023). "New Hampshire 2024: DeSantis Fades, Trump Maintains Lead in Primary". Emerson Polling.
  28. ↑ "Adobe Acrobat". acrobat.adobe.com.
  29. ↑ Yurow, Jeremy; Cullen, Margie (September 10, 2024). "Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig advance to November showdown in New Hampshire governor race". USA Today. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  30. ↑ "New Hampshire Governor election results". Politico. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  31. 1 2 "2024 State Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  32. ↑ Sexton, Adam (July 11, 2023). "Manchester Mayor Craig officially launches campaign for governor". WMUR . Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  33. ↑ Schinella, Tony (November 24, 2023). "Seacoast Restauranter Becomes Third NH Democrat To Run For Governor". Patch Media . Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  34. ↑ Sexton, Adam (June 1, 2023). "NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor". WMUR. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  35. ↑ Wolf, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/20". Daily Kos . Retrieved July 20, 2023. Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection
  36. ↑ DeWitt, Ethan (November 14, 2022). "After six-year battle to oust Sununu, Democrats fall short again". New Hampshire Bulletin.
  37. ↑ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?". The Boston Globe . Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  38. ↑ Porter, Steve (May 1, 2023). "Outgoing mayor of Manchester, N.H., launches exploratory committee for 2024 governor's race". Boston Globe. Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won't run for governor in 2024.
  39. 1 2 3 4 Steinhauser, Paul (May 1, 2023). "Craig launches gubernatorial exploratory committee". Concord Monitor. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  40. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Robidoux, Carol (August 20, 2023). "Craig campaign announces 160 new endorsements". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  41. 1 2 3 Sylvia, Andrew (October 27, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Dr. Tom Sherman". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  42. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (January 29, 2024). "Donchess backs Craig for governor". UnionLeader.com. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  43. ↑ Robidoux, Carol (October 3, 2023). "Nashua Teachers' Union Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  44. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (August 31, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Teamsters Local 633 in gubernatorial race". New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  45. ↑ "Howard Dean endorses Cinde Warmington". Manchester Ink Link. February 10, 2024. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  46. ↑ Bookman, Todd (June 1, 2023). "Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announces campaign for NH governor". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  47. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Scacchi, Mitchell (June 1, 2023). "Exec Councilor Warmington Enters Gov's Race, Likely to Face Craig in Primary". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  48. ↑ "NH State Employees Throw Support Behind Cinde Warmington in Democratic Gubernatorial Primary – SEA/SEIU DEV". SEA/SEIU DEV –. February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  49. ↑ "03.18.24 Warmington Primary Memo.pdf". Google Docs.
  50. ↑ NH Secretary of State's Office. "DECLARATIONS OF INTENT FILED – 2024" (PDF). Retrieved July 14, 2024. Governor Stephen Villee
  51. ↑ "Edmond LaPlante". Ballotpedia. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  52. ↑ "Candidate Announcement: Edmond Laplante - Running for Governor of NH". Granite Grok. June 25, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  53. ↑ "Facebook". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  54. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  55. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  56. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  57. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  58. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  59. ↑ Kelly, Laura (September 10, 2024). "DGA Statement on Joyce Craig's Primary Victory in New Hampshire". DGA. Democratic Governors Association. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  60. ↑ Mackler, Jessica (September 16, 2024). "EMILYs List Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor of New Hampshire". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  61. ↑ "Planned Parenthood NH Action Fund PAC Endorses Governor and Executive Council Candidates Who Will Protect and Expand Access to Reproductive Health Care". Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund. September 12, 2024. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  62. ↑ "2024 New Hampshire Governor - Ayotte vs. Craig | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
  63. ↑ "2024 Polls: New Hampshire Governor - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  64. ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). projects.fivethirtyeight.com.
  65. ↑ "Ayotte Holds Small Lead Over Craig in NH Governor Race; Pappas & Goodlander Lead Races for Congress 11/3/2024". All UNH Survey Center Polls. November 3, 2024.
  66. ↑ "New Poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center shows Kamala Harris Holding a Solid Lead in New Hampshire". www.anselm.edu.
  67. ↑ "Adobe Acrobat". acrobat.adobe.com.
  68. ↑ Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2024). "October 2024 New Hampshire Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 47%". Emerson Polling.
  69. ↑ "UMass Lowell/YouGov" (PDF).
  70. ↑ "Dartmouth College" (PDF).
  71. ↑ "UMass Lowell/YouGov" (PDF).
  72. ↑ "Saint Anselm College" (PDF).
  73. ↑ "University of New Hampshire".
  74. ↑ "Saint Anselm College" (PDF).
  75. 1 2 Mumford, Camille (November 15, 2023). "New Hampshire 2024: Haley Surges to Second Place While Trump Maintains Lead". Emerson Polling.
  76. ↑ "Wayback Machine". www.sos.nh.gov.
  77. ↑ https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-ballots-cast_6.xls [ bare URL spreadsheet file ]
  78. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.

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