2024 United States presidential election in New York

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in New York

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	58.6% ( 11.1 pp)
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Alliance Working Families Conservative Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Projected electoral vote 28 0 Popular vote 4,619,195 3,578,899 Percentage 55.12% 42.71%
County results Congressional district results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. ^[1]

Though it remained comfortably Democratic, New York was the state that had the biggest Republican swing out of any state in the nation in the 2024 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 42.71% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the 2016 election and 37.74% in the 2020 election. New York follows a trend of blue states, such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and California shifting red. ^{[2] [3]}

Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error. ^{[4] [5]} Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the 1988 election. ^[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

New York Democratic primary, April 2, 2024 ^[7]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	288,138	80.7%	268		268
Marianne Williamson	15,573	4.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	11,309	3.2%
Blank ballots	41,113	11.5%
Void ballots	903	0.3%
Total:	357,036	100.0%	268	38	306

Primary polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Different Candidate	Undecided
Siena College [8]	Sep 10–13, 2023	804 (RV)	± 4.3%	54%	40%	6%
Siena College [9]	Aug 13–16, 2023	803 (RV)	± 4.4%	47%	46%	7%
Siena College [10]	Jun 20–25, 2023	817 (RV)	± 3.9%	54%	40%	6%
Siena College [11]	May 7–11, 2023	810 (RV)	± 4.1%	56%	40%	4%
Siena College [12]	Mar 19–22, 2023	802 (RV)	± 4.6%	43%	51%	7%

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New York Republican presidential primary

The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.

New York Republican primary, April 2, 2024 ^[13]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	132,698	81.2%	91		91
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	21,145	12.9%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	6,679	4.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,667	1.0%
Blank or void ballots	1,311	0.8%
Total:	163,500	100.0%	91		91

General election

Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris (under the Democratic and Working Families Party tickets) and Donald Trump (under the Republican and New York Conservative Party tickets). ^[14] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not appear on the ballot in New York ^[15] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District ^[16] ruled that he falsely listed his place of residence as Katonah, New York but actually lived in Los Angeles. ^[17]

The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates: ^[18]

• Shiva Ayyadurai
• Claudia De la Cruz, nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation
• Chris Garrity
• Garry Hubbard
• Andre Ramon McNeil Sr
• Andrew O'Donnell, nominee of the King Kong Party ^[19]
• Chase Oliver, nominee of the Libertarian Party
• Future Madam Potus
• Raymond Anthony Scollin, former Franklin County Republican Committee chairman ^[20]
• Peter Sonski, nominee of the American Solidarity Party
• Jill Stein, nominee of the Green Party
• Cornel West

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: ^[21]

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz Democratic Party Working Families Party

Donald Trump and JD Vance Republican Party Conservative Party

Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza Andrea Stewart-Cousins Gerard J. Sweeney Sandra Ung Latrice Walker Randi Weingarten

Edward F. Cox William Barclay Bruce Blakeman Joe Borelli Karl Brabenec John Burnett Joe Cairo Andrea Catsimatidis Benjamin Federman Jesse Garcia Mark Heberling Michael Kracker Michael McCormack Steven McLaughlin Tim McNulty Anthony Nunziato Rob Ortt Patrick Reilly Michael Rendino Jennifer Rich Sylvia Rowan Christopher Tague Trish Turner Joseph Whalen Lee Zeldin Ralph Lorigo Donald Mazzullo Michael Torres

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [22]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [23]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [25]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [26]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [27]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [28]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538 [29]	Solid D	August 23, 2024
RCP [30]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News [31]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Research Co. [32]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	57%	41%	2%
ActiVote [33]	October 7–27, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	59%	41%	–
Siena College [34]	October 13–17, 2024	872 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	39%	3%
ActiVote [35]	September 4–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	61%	39%	–
Emerson College [36] [A]	September 23–25, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	54%	40%	6% [b]
Siena College [37]	September 11–16, 2024	1,003 (LV)	± 4.3%	55%	42%	3%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote [38]	August 1–21, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	58%	42%	–
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins
	August 6, 2024	Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Siena College [39]	July 28 – August 1, 2024	1,199 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	39%	8%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
SoCal Strategies (R) [40] [B]	July 18–19, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	41%	7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Siena College [37]	September 11–16, 2024	1,003 (LV)	± 4.3%	52%	40%	1%	2%	0%	5%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Siena College [34]	October 13–17, 2024	872 (LV)	± 4.1%	54%	37%	0%	1%	1%	1%	6% [c]
Siena College [39]	July 28 – August 1, 2024	1,199 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	37%	7%	1%	2%	1%	10%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R) [40] [B]	July 18–19, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	41%	7%
Siena College [41]	June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024	805 (RV)	± 4.1%	47%	39%	14%
Emerson College [42] [C]	May 28–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	41%	11%
				55% [d]	45%	–
Siena College [43]	May 13–15, 2024	1,191 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	38%	15%
Slingshot Strategies (D) [44]	May 2–3, 2024	1,059 (RV)	± 5.0%	56%	37%	17%
John Zogby Strategies [45] [D]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	48%	42%	10%
Siena College [46]	April 15–17, 2024	806 (RV)	± 4.1%	47%	37%	16%
Siena College [47]	February 12–14, 2024	806 (RV)	± 4.2%	48%	36%	16%
Siena College [48]	January 14–17, 2024	807 (RV)	± 4.5%	46%	37%	17%
Siena College [49]	November 12–15, 2023	803 (RV)	± 4.6%	46%	36%	18%
Siena College [50]	October 15–19, 2023	1,225 (RV)	± 3.4%	46%	37%	17%
Siena College [51]	September 10–13, 2023	804 (RV)	± 4.3%	52%	31%	17%
Siena College [9]	August 13–16, 2023	803 (RV)	± 4.4%	47%	34%	19%
Siena College [10]	June 20–25, 2023	817 (RV)	± 3.9%	50%	28%	21%
SurveyUSA [52] [E]	November 3–6, 2022	918 (RV)	± 4.1%	46%	34%	20%
Emerson College [53] [C]	October 20–24, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	40%	13%
SurveyUSA [54] [F]	October 14–18, 2022	1,018 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	37%	21%
Emerson College [55]	September 4–6, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	53%	37%	10%
SurveyUSA [56] [E]	August 17–21, 2022	715 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	29%	22%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [57]	August 7–9, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	40%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Siena College [47]	February 12–14, 2024	806 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	32%	13%	6%	7%
Siena College [48]	January 14–17, 2024	807 (RV)	± 4.5%	41%	32%	13%	3%	11%
Siena College [49]	November 12–15, 2023	803 (RV)	± 4.6%	37%	28%	18%	5%	11%
Siena College [50]	October 15–19, 2023	1,225 (RV)	± 3.4%	38%	31%	13%	5%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College [42] [C]	May 28–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	38%	6%	2%	1%	9%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [45] [D]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	44%	44%	12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [45] [D]	April 13–21, 2024	749 (LV)	–	45%	39%	16%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in New York ^[58]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	4,341,375	51.80%	4.58%
	Working Families	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	277,820	3.32%	1.16%
	Total	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	4,619,195	55.12%	5.75%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	3,257,166	38.87%	4.57%
	Conservative	Donald Trump JD Vance	321,733	3.84%	0.40%
	Total	Donald Trump JD Vance	3,578,899	42.71%	4.97%
	Green	Jill Stein (write-in) Butch Ware (write-in)	46,698	0.56%	0.18%
	Write-in		135,666	1.62%	N/A
Total votes			8,380,458	100.00%	N/A

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Albany	92,589	61.32%	54,560	36.13%	3,856	2.55%	38,029	25.19%	151,005
Allegany	5,483	27.88%	13,826	70.29%	360	1.83%	-8,343	-42.41%	19,669
Bronx	261,670	71.23%	98,174	26.73%	7,502	2.04%	163,496	44.50%	367,346
Broome	45,142	49.16%	44,763	48.75%	1,918	2.09%	379	0.41%	91,823
Cattaraugus	11,424	33.09%	22,586	65.42%	515	1.49%	-11,162	-32.33%	34,525
Cayuga	15,772	42.88%	20,482	55.68%	531	1.44%	-4,710	-12.80%	36,785
Chautauqua	22,085	38.39%	34,528	60.03%	908	1.58%	-12,443	-21.64%	57,521
Chemung	15,572	40.98%	21,861	57.52%	570	1.50%	-6,289	-16.54%	38,003
Chenango	8,177	35.90%	14,294	62.76%	305	1.34%	-6,117	-26.86%	22,776
Clinton	17,478	48.23%	18,247	50.35%	513	1.42%	-769	-2.12%	36,238
Columbia	20,396	56.15%	15,168	41.76%	762	2.10%	5,228	14.39%	36,326
Cortland	10,290	46.08%	11,706	52.42%	334	1.50%	-1,416	-6.34%	22,330
Delaware	9,237	39.47%	13,789	58.92%	375	1.60%	-4,552	-19.45%	23,401
Dutchess	79,994	51.75%	71,778	46.44%	2,803	1.81%	8,216	5.31%	154,575
Erie	248,651	53.64%	204,774	44.17%	10,154	2.19%	43,877	9.47%	463,579
Essex	9,629	49.31%	9,533	48.81%	367	1.88%	96	0.50%	19,529
Franklin	8,821	44.86%	10,569	53.75%	272	1.38%	-1,748	-8.89%	19,662
Fulton	7,666	31.69%	16,237	67.12%	288	1.19%	-8,571	-35.43%	24,191
Genesee	9,367	32.50%	18,997	65.91%	457	1.59%	-9,630	-33.41%	28,821
Greene	10,436	40.63%	14,702	57.23%	550	2.14%	-4,266	-16.60%	25,688
Hamilton	1,211	35.18%	2,223	64.58%	8	0.23%	-1,012	-29.40%	3,442
Herkimer	9,110	31.39%	19,557	67.38%	357	1.23%	-10,447	-35.99%	29,024
Jefferson	16,326	37.69%	26,417	60.99%	568	1.31%	-10,091	-23.30%	43,311
Kings	601,265	69.76%	233,964	27.14%	26,681	3.10%	367,301	42.62%	861,910
Lewis	3,600	27.18%	9,353	70.61%	293	2.21%	-5,753	-43.43%	13,246
Livingston	12,148	38.61%	18,780	59.69%	533	1.69%	-6,632	-21.08%	31,461
Madison	14,629	42.69%	19,025	55.52%	611	1.78%	-4,396	-12.83%	34,265
Monroe	214,757	58.30%	145,940	39.62%	7,646	2.08%	68,817	18.68%	368,343
Montgomery	7,356	35.16%	13,286	63.50%	280	1.34%	-5,930	-28.34%	20,922
Nassau	338,424	46.84%	368,117	50.94%	16,045	2.22%	-29,693	-4.10%	722,586
New York	533,782	80.08%	113,921	17.09%	18,896	2.83%	419,861	62.99%	666,599
Niagara	43,438	41.94%	58,678	56.65%	1,457	1.41%	-15,240	-14.71%	103,573
Oneida	39,415	38.82%	60,687	59.77%	1,425	1.40%	-21,272	-20.95%	101,527
Onondaga	133,155	57.47%	93,916	40.53%	4,636	2.00%	39,239	16.94%	231,707
Ontario	29,520	48.54%	30,221	49.69%	1,073	1.76%	-701	-1.15%	60,814
Orange	80,253	44.96%	94,936	53.18%	3,317	1.86%	-14,683	-8.22%	178,506
Orleans	5,366	29.32%	12,659	69.17%	276	1.51%	-7,293	-39.85%	18,301
Oswego	20,483	37.44%	33,548	61.32%	681	1.24%	-13,065	-23.88%	54,712
Otsego	13,031	45.27%	15,256	53.00%	496	1.72%	-2,225	-7.73%	28,783
Putnam	23,956	42.46%	31,553	55.92%	912	1.62%	-7,597	-13.46%	56,421
Queens	437,282	60.57%	264,628	36.66%	20,027	2.77%	172,654	23.91%	721,937
Rensselaer	39,668	49.74%	38,601	48.40%	1,483	1.86%	1,067	1.34%	79,752
Richmond	69,345	34.40%	128,151	63.57%	4,088	2.03%	-58,806	-29.17%	201,584
Rockland	65,880	43.27%	83,543	54.87%	2,826	1.86%	-17,663	-11.60%	152,249
St. Lawrence	18,010	40.43%	25,919	58.18%	620	1.39%	-7,909	-17.75%	44,549
Saratoga	66,321	49.93%	63,940	48.14%	2,556	1.92%	2,381	1.79%	132,817
Schenectady	39,733	54.35%	31,975	43.73%	1,404	1.92%	7,758	10.62%	73,112
Schoharie	5,547	34.18%	10,423	64.22%	261	1.61%	-4,876	-30.04%	16,231
Schuyler	3,736	39.00%	5,717	59.68%	126	1.32%	-1,981	-20.68%	9,579
Seneca	6,610	43.41%	8,379	55.03%	238	1.56%	-1,769	-11.62%	15,227
Steuben	15,413	33.64%	29,777	64.98%	632	1.38%	-14,364	-31.34%	45,822
Suffolk	341,812	44.32%	417,549	54.14%	11,852	1.54%	-75,737	-9.82%	771,213
Sullivan	14,549	40.82%	20,386	57.19%	709	1.99%	-5,837	-16.37%	35,644
Tioga	9,437	37.99%	15,038	60.54%	364	1.47%	-5,601	-22.55%	24,839
Tompkins	34,631	73.20%	11,354	24.00%	1,322	2.79%	23,277	49.20%	47,307
Ulster	57,974	57.96%	39,743	39.73%	2,307	2.31%	18,231	18.23%	100,024
Warren	17,099	47.08%	18,606	51.23%	613	1.69%	-1,507	-4.15%	36,318
Washington	11,224	38.84%	17,268	59.76%	405	1.40%	-6,044	-20.92%	28,897
Wayne	17,056	37.89%	27,286	60.62%	673	1.50%	-10,230	-22.73%	45,015
Westchester	287,434	61.82%	167,795	36.09%	9,752	2.10%	119,639	25.73%	464,981
Wyoming	4,929	25.39%	14,112	72.69%	374	1.93%	-9,183	-47.30%	19,415
Yates	4,401	41.13%	6,098	56.99%	201	1.88%	-1,697	-15.86%	10,700
Totals	4,619,195	55.12%	3,578,899	42.71%	182,364	2.18%	1,040,296	12.41%	8,380,458

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Clinton (county seat: Plattsburgh)
• Nassau (county seat: Mineola)
• Rockland (county seat: New City)

Analysis

New Yorkers voting in a polling location near Lincoln Square

A heavily populated Middle Atlantic state, New York is considered a blue state, not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. New York continued that trend in 2024, but Democrats saw a huge underprefomance compared to past elections. All counties in the state except for Hamilton and Yates swung towards the Republicans in 2024.

This was the first presidential election since 1956 in which New York voted more Republican than Washington state, the first since 1960 where it voted more Republican than Connecticut, the first since 1980 where it voted more Republican than Delaware, and the first since 1988 where it voted more Republican than Oregon.

See also

• United States presidential elections in New York
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Someone else" with 3%
3. "Someone else" with 1%
4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by WPIX-TV
2. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
3. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
4. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
5. Poll sponsored by WNYT-TV
6. Poll sponsored by WHEC-TV & WNYT-TV

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Mathis, Joel; published, The Week US (November 13, 2024). "Where did Democratic voters go?". theweek. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
3. Collins, Keith; Levitt, Zach; New York Times (November 22, 2024). "Trump Gained 95,000 Votes in New York City. Democrats Lost Half a Million".
4. "Now Deep Blue New York Is Turning Into a Battleground State for Biden". Yahoo News. July 10, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
5. "Trump Says He Has 'Good Chance' of Winning New York in November". Bloomberg.com. April 25, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
6. Donlevy, Katherine (November 6, 2024). "2024 presidential election marks closest New York has come to turning red in 30 years as Trump support surges in NYC" . Retrieved November 14, 2024.
7. "Certified 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
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