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Slotkin: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rogers: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Michigan |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, in her bid to succeed Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who declined to seek a fifth term. [1] [2] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, making Michigan one of only four states to split their tickets for president and Senate.
Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024. [3] Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash and physician Sherry O'Donnell. The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain control of the Senate. [4] This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. This was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was reelected as Republican George H.W. Bush carried the state in 1988.
On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Elissa Slotkin had won the election. [5] [6] [7] Slotkin received about 25,000 fewer votes than Kamala Harris, while Rogers received about 120,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump.
A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. At the time of the election, Democrats controlled both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices. [8]
This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win. [9] [10] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race [11] and defaulting on a bank loan. [12] [13] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines. [14]
Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024. [15] [16] [17] Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023. [18] She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign. [19] [20]
Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. [21]
In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. [22] [23] [24] The allegation was denied by Nelson. [22] [25] Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane." [26] Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot. [27]
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Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Nasser Beydoun (D) [b] | $855,335 | $678,582 | $148,721 |
Hill Harper (D) | $2,037,766 [c] | $1,596,454 | $441,312 |
Leslie Love (D) [d] | $23,395 | $17,017 | $17,017 |
Pamela Pugh (D) [d] | $90,638 | $81,363 | $9,275 |
Elissa Slotkin (D) | $16,094,088 | $7,473,267 | $8,620,820 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [93] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun | Hill Harper | Leslie Love | Elissa Slotkin | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Research [94] [A] | June 3, 2024 | 268 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 1% | 8% | – | 53% | – | 38% |
Mitchell Research [95] [A] | March 15–16, 2024 | 260 (LV) | – | 3% | 11% | – | 59% | – | 27% |
Target Insyght [96] [B] | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 65% | 26% [f] | |
Public Policy Polling (D) [97] [C] | December 28–29, 2023 | 549 (LV) | – | 2% | 12% | 3% | 50% | – | 34% |
– | 14% | – | 56% | – | 31% | ||||
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 551 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 34% | 29% [g] | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 712,791 | 76.33% | |
Democratic | Hill Harper | 221,053 | 23.67% | |
Total votes | 933,844 | 100.0% |
Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May. [121]
Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022. [122] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan. [123] His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him. [124] [125] [126] New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home. [127]
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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Justin Amash (R) | $662,743 | $633,56 | $400,706 |
Sherry O'Donnell (R) | $422,182 | $376,550 | $46,517 |
Mike Rogers (R) | $5,005,548 | $2,489,477 | $2,516,070 |
James Craig (R) [d] | $136,670 | $136,670 | $0 |
Michael Hoover (R) [d] | $236,591 | $234,931 | $1,660 |
Peter Meijer (R) [d] | $1,083,664 | $985,747 | $97,916 |
Sandy Pensler (R) [d] | $4,959,782 | $3,894,186 | $1,065,595 |
Sharon Savage (R) [d] | $100,130 | $50,956 | $49,174 |
Alexandria Taylor (R) [d] | $26,120 | $26,120 | $0 |
J. D. Wilson (R) [d] | $8,086 | $6,438 | $1,647 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [93] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Justin Amash | James Craig | Peter Meijer | Sherry O'Donnell | Sandy Pensler | Mike Rogers | Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pensler withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Tarrance Group [146] [D] | July 8–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 14% | – | – | 5% | 14% | 52% | – | 16% | |||||
Mitchell Research [94] [A] | June 3, 2024 | 266 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 8% | – | – | 0% | 3% | 28% | – | 61% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [147] [C] | May 22–23, 2024 | 486 (LV) | – | 11% | – | – | 3% | 12% | 30% | 3% [j] | 41% | |||||
Emerson College [148] | April 30 – May 1, 2024 | 545 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 8% | – | – | 2% | 3% | 32% | – | 54% | |||||
Meijer withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Mitchell Research [95] [A] | March 15–16, 2024 | 288 (LV) | – | 6% | – | 7% | – | 1% | 27% | – | 59% | |||||
Market Resource Group (R) [149] | February 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | – | – | 7% | – | 2% | 23% | 6% [k] | 62% | |||||
Craig withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Target Insyght [150] [B] | January 4–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 33% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 20% | 1% [l] | 33% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [151] | October 9–10, 2023 | 430 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | 30% | – | – | – | 19% | – | 51% | |||||
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 9% | – | – | 12% | 50% [m] | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Rogers | 555,766 | 63.19% | |
Republican | Justin Amash | 137,565 | 15.64% | |
Republican | Sherry O'Donnell | 106,466 | 12.10% | |
Republican | Sandy Pensler (withdrawn) | 79,772 | 9.07% | |
Total votes | 879,569 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [153] | Tossup | October 8, 2024 |
Inside Elections [9] | Tilt D | September 26, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [154] | Lean D | September 25, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [155] | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
Elections Daily [156] | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
CNalysis [157] | Lean D | October 9, 2024 |
RealClearPolitics [158] | Tossup | October 9, 2024 |
Split Ticket [159] | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
538 [160] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
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No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Slotkin | Rogers | |||||
1 | October 8, 2024 | WOOD-TV | Rick Albin | [172] | P | P |
2 | October 14, 2024 | WXYZ-TV | Carolyn Clifford Alicia Smith Chuck Stokes | [173] | P | P |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided [n] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics [174] | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 46.1% | 5.5% | Slotkin +2.3% |
538 [175] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 45.1% | 6.2% | Slotkin +3.6% |
270toWin [176] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 44.5% | 6.9% | Slotkin +4.1% |
TheHill/DDHQ [177] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.1% | 46.3% | 4.6% | Slotkin +2.8% |
Average | 48.7% | 45.5% | 5.8% | Slotkin +3.2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel [178] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% [o] | 1% |
Research Co. [179] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 44% | 2% [p] | 4% |
Patriot Polling (R) [180] | November 1–3, 2024 | 858 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [181] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [182] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
AtlasIntel [183] | November 1–2, 2024 | 1,198 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% [o] | 1% |
Emerson College [184] [E] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 790 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Mitchell Research [185] [F] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 585 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 4% |
48% | 46% | 1% [q] | 2% | ||||
NYT/Siena College [186] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 998 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
998 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | 9% | ||
Mainstreet Research/FAU [187] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 43% | 1% [r] | 9% |
733 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 2% [s] | 10% | ||
Morning Consult [188] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,112 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
OnMessage (R) [189] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
YouGov [190] [G] | October 25–31, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
985 (RV) | 51% | 41% | – | 8% | |||
ActiVote [191] | October 12–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
Marist College [192] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | 1% [t] | 1% |
1,356 (RV) | ± 3.3 | 51% | 47% | 1% [t] | 1% | ||
AtlasIntel [193] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 3% [o] | 1% |
Echleon Insights [194] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 5% [u] | 1% |
Mitchell Research [195] [F] | October 28–29, 2024 | – | ± 2.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 10% |
Tarrance Group (R) [196] [H] | October 26–29, 2024 | 620 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 50% | – | 2% |
AtlasIntel [197] | October 25–29, 2024 | 983 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% [o] | 1% |
EPIC-MRA [198] [I] | October 24–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 7% [v] | 3% |
The Washington Post [199] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
1,003 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% | ||
Fox News [200] | October 24–28, 2024 | 988 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
1,275 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% | ||
CNN/SSRS [201] | October 23–28, 2024 | 726 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 42% | 9% [w] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [202] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 1% [x] | 3% |
Emerson College [203] [J] | October 25–27, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Suffolk University [204] [K] | October 24–27, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 45% | 5% [y] | 3% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) [205] | October 23–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 1% [z] | 4% |
Patriot Polling (R) [206] | October 24–26, 2024 | 796 (RV) | – | 51% | 48% | – | – |
Glengariff Group [207] [L] | October 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 5% [aa] | 7% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov [208] | October 16–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.49% | 48% | 39% | 5% [ab] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University [209] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,136 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 44% | 2% [ac] | 2% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [210] | October 18–20, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [211] [M] | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,008 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 38% | 7% [ad] | 10% |
AtlasIntel [212] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,529 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% [ae] | 2% |
The Bullfinch Group [213] | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
RMG Research [214] [N] | October 10–16, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% [af] | 4% |
Morning Consult [188] | October 6–15, 2024 | 496 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% |
Mitchell Research [215] [A] | October 14, 2024 | 589 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
45% | 40% | 4% [ah] | 10% | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [216] [M] | October 12–14, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 40% | 6% [ai] | 10% |
SoCal Strategies (R) [217] | October 11–13, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Marketing Resource Group (R) [218] | October 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 7% [aj] | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [219] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 7% |
Emerson College [220] [E] | October 5–8, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | – | 8% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D) [221] [O] | October 2–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 1% [ak] | 4% |
Research Co. [222] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 41% | 1% [al] | 12% |
Quinnipiac University [209] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 2% [am] | 1% |
Glengariff Group [223] [L] | October 1–4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 5% [an] | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [224] [M] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 839 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 39% | 6% [ao] | 10% |
Mitchell Research [225] [A] | September 30, 2024 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [226] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
RMG Research [227] [N] | September 24–27, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | 2% [ap] | 3% |
NYT/Siena College [228] | September 21–26, 2024 | 688 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 12% |
688 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
AtlasIntel [229] | September 20–25, 2024 | 918 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | 1% [aq] | 6% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [230] [P] | September 19–25, 2024 | 416 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 3% [ar] | 5% |
50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||||
Remington Research Group (R) [231] [Q] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [232] [M] | September 16–19, 2024 | 993 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 4% [as] | 12% |
Suffolk University [233] [K] | September 16–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 2% [at] | 10% |
UMass/YouGov [234] | September 11–19, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 47% | 34% | 3% [au] | 15% |
Emerson College [235] [E] | September 15–18, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Tarrance Group (R) [236] [R] | September 14–18, 2024 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Morning Consult [188] | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,297 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 37% | – | 12% |
Marist College [237] | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | 3% |
1,138 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 2% | ||
Quinnipiac University [238] | September 12–16, 2024 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 46% | 1% [av] | 2% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [239] [M] | September 6–9, 2024 | 556 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 39% | 4% [aw] | 14% |
Morning Consult [240] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
co/efficient [241] | September 4–6, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
CBS News/YouGov [242] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 2% [ax] | 9% |
ActiVote [243] | August 6 – September 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
YouGov [244] [G] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Cygnal (R) [245] | August 28 – September 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [246] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | – | 5% |
Glengariff Group [247] [L] | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% [ay] | 15% |
CNN/SRSS [248] | August 23–29, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | 11% [az] | 1% |
Emerson College [249] [E] | August 25–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
EPIC-MRA [250] [I] | August 23–26, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
TIPP Insights (R) [251] [S] | August 20–22, 2024 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 35% | 5% | 13% |
741 (LV) | 49% | 39% | 4% | 8% | |||
Fabrizio Ward (R) [252] [T] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
The Bullfinch Group [253] [U] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 38% | – | 15% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D) [254] [O] | August 7–11, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 8% |
NYT/Siena College [255] | August 5–8, 2024 | 619 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 41% | – | 16% |
619 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [256] [P] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 406 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
Primary elections held | |||||||
Glengariff Group [257] [L] | July 22–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Fox News [258] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 46% | 1% [ba] | 3% |
Emerson College [259] [V] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [260] [W] | July 17–18, 2024 | 650 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 38% | – | 17% |
EPIC-MRA [261] [I] | July 13–17, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [262] [X] | July 11–12, 2024 | 568 (RV) | – | 45% | 35% | – | 20% |
YouGov [263] [G] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 39% | 2% | 12% |
852 (LV) | – | 49% | 40% | 2% | 12% | ||
Expedition Strategies [264] [Y] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 275 (LV) | – | 46% | 40% | – | 14% |
Remington Research Group (R) [265] [Q] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
EPIC-MRA [266] | June 21–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
Emerson College [267] [E] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
Mitchell Research [268] [A] | June 3, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 36% | 33% | – | 31% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU [269] | May 30–31, 2024 | 723 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 41% | 4% [bb] | 14% |
636 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 42% | 3% [bc] | 12% | ||
Mitchell Research [270] [A] | May 20–21, 2024 | 697 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
KAConsulting (R) [271] [Z] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 43% | 37% | – | 20% |
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 37% | – | 23% |
Emerson College [273] [E] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 40% | – | 19% |
Emerson College [274] [E] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | – | 20% |
Mitchell Research [95] [A] | March 15–16, 2024 | 627 (LV) | – | 37% | 37% | – | 26% |
EPIC-MRA [275] | February 13–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
Glengariff Group [276] [L] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
EPIC-MRA [277] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 37% | – | 24% |
EPIC-MRA [278] | August 6–11, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 37% | – | 21% |
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 38% | – | 18% |
Mitchell Research [279] [A] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | – | 17% |
Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Nasser Beydoun (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 25% |
Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Hill Harper (D) | Mike Rogers (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 26% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Justin Amash (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
Emerson College [274] [E] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 35% | 22% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | James Craig (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [276] [L] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 27% |
EPIC-MRA [277] | November 10–16, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
EPIC-MRA [280] | June 8–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Peter Meijer (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
Emerson College [274] [E] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
Glengariff Group [276] [L] | January 2–6, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 36% | 28% |
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
Mitchell Research [279] [A] | July 11–13, 2023 | 639 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Sandy Pensler (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] | April 24–25, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 26% |
Emerson College [274] [E] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | Nikki Snyder (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [e] | Margin of error | Elissa Slotkin (D) | John Tuttle (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [99] | August 1–2, 2023 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elissa Slotkin | 2,712,686 | 48.64% | −3.62% | |
Republican | Mike Rogers | 2,693,680 | 48.30% | +2.54% | |
Libertarian | Joseph Solis-Mullen | 56,697 | 1.02% | N/A | |
Green | Douglas Marsh | 53,978 | 0.97% | +0.02% | |
Constitution | Dave Stein | 41,363 | 0.74% | +0.09% | |
Natural Law | Doug Dern | 18,779 | 0.34% | −0.05% | |
Total votes | 5,577,183 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
Slotkin won 7 of 13 congressional districts, including her own district, which elected a Republican to replace her. [282] [283] [284] [285] [286]
District | Slotkin | Rogers | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | Jack Bergman | ||
2nd | John Moolenaar | ||
3rd | Hillary Scholten | ||
4th | 45% | 52% | Bill Huizenga |
5th | Tim Walberg | ||
6th | Debbie Dingell | ||
7th | 49% | 48% | Elissa Slotkin (118th Congress) |
Tom Barrett (119th Congress) | |||
8th | 49% | 48% | Dan Kildee (118th Congress) |
Kristen McDonald Rivet (119th Congress) | |||
9th | Lisa McClain | ||
10th | 47% | 50% | John James |
11th | Haley Stevens | ||
12th | 67% | 27% | Rashida Tlaib |
13th | Shri Thanedar |
Partisan clients
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Mayor Mike Duggan of Detroit would not run for the Senate, aides said.
Former Representative Andy Levin, who lost his House seat to fellow Democrat Haley Stevens in a primary after it was redrawn, also has no plans to run for Senate, according to his spokeswoman...a spokesperson for Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) also confirmed he wouldn't be running for Senate in 2024.
Pugh added state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), Rep. Hillary Scholten (MI-3) and Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) as possible successors to Stabenow.
Scholten is seeking another term in the U.S. House.
Meanwhile, newly-elected Rep. Shri Thanedar says he has "no plans" to seek a promotion
Harper, though, got some welcome news Monday when he received an endorsement from Wayne County Executive Warren Evans
Tudor Dixon, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2022, also indicated she wouldn't seek Stabenow's seat.
Former Rep. CANDICE MILLER (R-Mich.) will not run for the seat being vacated by Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.), per The Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke.
Official campaign websites