2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Elissa Slotkin, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg Mike-Rogers-Head-Shot-2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Elissa Slotkin Mike Rogers
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,712,6862,693,680
Percentage48.64%48.30%

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan results map by county.svg
County results
Slotkin:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Rogers:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elissa Slotkin
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, in her bid to succeed Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who declined to seek a fifth term. [1] [2] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, making Michigan one of only four states to split their tickets for president and Senate.

Contents

Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024. [3] Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash and physician Sherry O'Donnell. The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain control of the Senate. [4] This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. This was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was reelected as Republican Gerald Ford carried the state in 1976.

On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Elissa Slotkin had won the election. [5] [6] [7]

Background

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices. [8]

This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win. [9] [10] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race [11] and defaulting on a bank loan. [12] [13] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines. [14]

Democratic primary

Campaign

Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024. [15] [16] [17] Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023. [18] She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign. [19] [20]

Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. [21]

Campaign contribution allegations

In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. [22] [23] [24] The allegation was denied by Nelson. [22] [25] Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane." [26] Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot. [27]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Hill Harper

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Elissa Slotkin

Statewide elected officials

U.S. representatives

State cabinet officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Nasser Beydoun (disqualified)

Organizations

Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)

Local officials

Declined to endorse

Presidents

U.S. senators

Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D) [b] $855,335$678,582$148,721
Hill Harper (D)$2,037,766 [c] $1,596,454$441,312
Leslie Love (D) [d] $23,395$17,017$17,017
Pamela Pugh (D) [d] $90,638$81,363$9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D)$16,094,088$7,473,267$8,620,820
Source: Federal Election Commission [93]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun
Hill
Harper
Leslie
Love
Elissa
Slotkin
OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research [94] [A] June 3, 2024268 (LV)± 6.0%1%8%53%38%
Mitchell Research [95] [A] March 15–16, 2024260 (LV)3%11%59%27%
Target Insyght [96] [B] January 4–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.5%0%7%2%65%26% [f]
Public Policy Polling (D) [97] [C] December 28–29, 2023549 (LV)2%12%3%50%34%
14%56%31%
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 2023551 (RV)± 4.1%2%8%2%34%29% [g] 25%

Results

Results by county:
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Slotkin
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
>90% 2024 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Michigan results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Slotkin
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Democratic primary results [100]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 712,791 76.33%
Democratic Hill Harper 221,05323.67%
Total votes933,844 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May. [121]

Residency controversy

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022. [122] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan. [123] His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him. [124] [125] [126] New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home. [127]

Endorsements

Justin Amash

U.S. senators

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Sherry O'Donnell
Executive office officials

State legislators

Individuals

Mike Rogers

Executive branch officials

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

  • Police Officers Association of Michigan [142]

Organizations

Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Justin Amash (R)$662,743$633,56$400,706
Sherry O'Donnell (R)$422,182$376,550$46,517
Mike Rogers (R)$5,005,548$2,489,477$2,516,070
James Craig (R) [d] $136,670$136,670$0
Michael Hoover (R) [d] $236,591$234,931$1,660
Peter Meijer (R) [d] $1,083,664$985,747$97,916
Sandy Pensler (R) [d] $4,959,782$3,894,186$1,065,595
Sharon Savage (R) [d] $100,130$50,956$49,174
Alexandria Taylor (R) [d] $26,120$26,120$0
J. D. Wilson (R) [d] $8,086$6,438$1,647
Source: Federal Election Commission [93]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Justin
Amash
James
Craig
Peter
Meijer
Sherry
O'Donnell
Sandy
Pensler
Mike
Rogers
OtherUndecided
July 20, 2024Pensler withdraws from the race
Tarrance Group [146] [D] July 8–10, 2024500 (LV)± 4.5%14%5%14%52%16%
Mitchell Research [94] [A] June 3, 2024266 (LV)± 6.0%8%0%3%28%61%
Public Policy Polling (D) [147] [C] May 22–23, 2024486 (LV)11%3%12%30%3% [j] 41%
Emerson College [148] April 30 – May 1, 2024545 (LV)± 4.1%8%2%3%32%54%
April 26, 2024Meijer withdraws from the race
Mitchell Research [95] [A] March 15–16, 2024288 (LV)6%7%1%27%59%
Market Resource Group (R) [149] February 19–22, 2024600 (LV)7%2%23%6% [k] 62%
February 13, 2024Craig withdraws from the race
Target Insyght [150] [B] January 4–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%33%11%1%2%20%1% [l] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D) [151] October 9–10, 2023430 (LV)± 4.7%30%19%51%
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 2023477 (RV)± 4.4%9%12%50% [m] 29%

Results

Results by county:
Rogers
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2024 United States Senate Republican primary election in Michigan results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Rogers
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [100]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Rogers 555,766 63.19%
Republican Justin Amash 137,56515.64%
Republican Sherry O'Donnell106,46612.10%
Republican Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)79,7729.07%
Total votes879,569 100.0%

Third-party candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [153] TossupOctober 8, 2024
Inside Elections [9] Tilt DSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [154] Lean DSeptember 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [155] Lean DOctober 9, 2024
Elections Daily [156] Lean DOctober 9, 2024
CNalysis [157] Lean DOctober 9, 2024
RealClearPolitics [158] TossupOctober 9, 2024
Split Ticket [159] Lean DOctober 23, 2024
538 [160] Likely DOctober 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Mike Rogers (R)
U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Mayors

Organizations

Elissa Slotkin (D)
U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

2024 Michigan U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
SlotkinRogers
1October 8, 2024 WOOD-TV Rick Albin [172] PP
2October 14, 2024 WXYZ-TV Carolyn Clifford
Alicia Smith
Chuck Stokes
[173] PP

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
[n]
Margin
RealClearPolitics [174] October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.4%46.1%5.5%Slotkin +2.3%
538 [175] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.7%45.1%6.2%Slotkin +3.6%
270toWin [176] October 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%44.5%6.9%Slotkin +4.1%
TheHill/DDHQ [177] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.1%46.3%4.6%Slotkin +2.8%
Average48.7%45.5%5.8%Slotkin +3.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [178] November 3–4, 20241,113 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3% [o] 1%
Research Co. [179] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%50%44%2% [p] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) [180] November 1–3, 2024858 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%1%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [181] November 1–3, 20241,079 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [182] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%48%2%2%
AtlasIntel [183] November 1–2, 20241,198 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%3% [o] 1%
Emerson College [184] [E] October 30 – November 2, 2024790 (LV)± 3.4%49%45%6%
Mitchell Research [185] [F] October 29 – November 2, 2024585 (LV)± 4.0%50%48%4%
48%46%1% [q] 2%
NYT/Siena College [186] October 29 – November 2, 2024998 (LV)± 3.7%48%46%6%
998 (RV)± 3.5%45%45%9%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [187] October 25 – November 2, 2024713 (LV)± 3.6%47%43%1% [r] 9%
733 (RV)± 3.6%47%42%2% [s] 10%
Morning Consult [188] October 23 – November 1, 20241,112 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%10%
OnMessage (R) [189] October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)47%46%7%
YouGov [190] [G] October 25–31, 2024940 (LV)± 3.9%51%42%7%
985 (RV)51%41%8%
ActiVote [191] October 12–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%51%49%
Marist College [192] October 27–30, 20241,214 (LV)± 3.5%52%46%1% [t] 1%
1,356 (RV)± 3.351%47%1% [t] 1%
AtlasIntel [193] October 27–30, 20241,136 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%3% [o] 1%
Echleon Insights [194] October 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%5% [u] 1%
Mitchell Research [195] [F] October 28–29, 2024± 2.5%47%49%10%
Tarrance Group (R) [196] [H] October 26–29, 2024620 (LV)± 4.1%48%50%2%
AtlasIntel [197] October 25–29, 2024983 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%3% [o] 1%
EPIC-MRA [198] [I] October 24–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%7% [v] 3%
The Washington Post [199] October 24–28, 20241,003 (LV)± 3.7%48%45%7%
1,003 (RV)± 3.7%46%45%9%
Fox News [200] October 24–28, 2024988 (LV)± 3.0%51%47%2%
1,275 (RV)± 2.5%51%46%2%
CNN/SSRS [201] October 23–28, 2024726 (LV)± 4.7%48%42%9% [w] 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [202] October 26–27, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%48%1% [x] 3%
Emerson College [203] [J] October 25–27, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%6%
Suffolk University [204] [K] October 24–27, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%5% [y] 3%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) [205] October 23–27, 2024400 (LV)±  4.9%48%47%1% [z] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) [206] October 24–26, 2024796 (RV)51%48%
Glengariff Group [207] [L] October 22–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%5% [aa] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [208] October 16–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.49%48%39%5% [ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University [209] October 17–21, 20241,136 (LV)± 2.9%52%44%2% [ac] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [210] October 18–20, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [211] [M] October 16–18, 20241,008 (LV)± 2.8%45%38%7% [ad] 10%
AtlasIntel [212] October 12–17, 20241,529 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2% [ae] 2%
The Bullfinch Group [213] October 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%7%
RMG Research [214] [N] October 10–16, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%1% [af] 4%
Morning Consult [188] October 6–15, 2024496 (LV)± 3.0%48%41%11%
Mitchell Research [215] [A] October 14, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%47%43%10%
45%40%4% [ah] 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [216] [M] October 12–14, 2024682 (LV)± 3.4%44%40%6% [ai] 10%
SoCal Strategies (R) [217] October 11–13, 2024692 (LV)± 3.7%48%45%7%
Marketing Resource Group (R) [218] October 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%7% [aj] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [219] October 8–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%46%45%2%7%
Emerson College [220] [E] October 5–8, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%49%44%8%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research
(D) [221] [O]
October 2–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%46%1% [ak] 4%
Research Co. [222] October 5–7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%46%41%1% [al] 12%
Quinnipiac University [209] October 3–7, 20241,007 (LV)± 3.1%48%48%2% [am] 1%
Glengariff Group [223] [L] October 1–4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%43%5% [an] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [224] [M] September 27 – October 2, 2024839 (LV)± 3.1%45%39%6% [ao] 10%
Mitchell Research [225] [A] September 30, 2024709 (LV)± 3.7%49%44%7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [226] September 28–30, 20241,086 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%6%
RMG Research [227] [N] September 24–27, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%49%43%2% [ap] 3%
NYT/Siena College [228] September 21–26, 2024688 (LV)± 4.2%47%42%12%
688 (RV)± 4.0%44%40%16%
AtlasIntel [229] September 20–25, 2024918 (LV)± 3.0%44%49%1% [aq] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [230] [P] September 19–25, 2024416 (LV)47%44%3% [ar] 5%
50%46%4%
Remington Research Group (R) [231] [Q] September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%50%43%7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [232] [M] September 16–19, 2024993 (LV)± 2.9%46%37%4% [as] 12%
Suffolk University [233] [K] September 16–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%43%2% [at] 10%
UMass/YouGov [234] September 11–19, 2024650 (LV)± 4.37%47%34%3% [au] 15%
Emerson College [235] [E] September 15–18, 2024875 (LV)± 3.2%47%42%11%
Tarrance Group (R) [236] [R] September 14–18, 2024607 (LV)± 4.1%49%47%4%
Morning Consult [188] September 9–18, 20241,297 (LV)± 3.0%51%37%12%
Marist College [237] September 12–17, 20241,282 (RV)± 3.2%51%45%3%
1,138 (LV)± 3.4%52%45%2%
Quinnipiac University [238] September 12–16, 2024905 (LV)± 3.3%51%46%1% [av] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [239] [M] September 6–9, 2024556 (LV)± 3.8%44%39%4% [aw] 14%
Morning Consult [240] August 30 – September 8, 20241,368 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
co/efficient [241] September 4–6, 2024931 (LV)± 3.3%39%38%23%
CBS News/YouGov [242] September 3–6, 20241,073 (LV)± 3.6%48%41%2% [ax] 9%
ActiVote [243] August 6 – September 5, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%
YouGov [244] [G] August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%11%
Cygnal (R) [245] August 28 – September 1, 2024600 (LV)44%43%13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [246] August 28–30, 20241,089 (LV)± 2.9%49%45%5%
Glengariff Group [247] [L] August 26–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%44%35%6% [ay] 15%
CNN/SRSS [248] August 23–29, 2024708 (LV)± 4.9%47%41%11% [az] 1%
Emerson College [249] [E] August 25–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%47%41%12%
EPIC-MRA [250] [I] August 23–26, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%46%42%12%
TIPP Insights (R) [251] [S] August 20–22, 20241,001 (RV)± 3.7%47%35%5%13%
741 (LV)49%39%4%8%
Fabrizio Ward (R) [252] [T] August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%43%43%14%
The Bullfinch Group [253] [U] August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%48%38%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research
(D) [254] [O]
August 7–11, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%8%
NYT/Siena College [255] August 5–8, 2024619 (RV)± 4.5%42%41%16%
619 (LV)± 4.8%46%43%11%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [256] [P] July 26 – August 2, 2024406 (LV)50%42%8%
August 6, 2024Primary elections held
Glengariff Group [257] [L] July 22–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%13%
Fox News [258] July 22–24, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.0%51%46%1% [ba] 3%
Emerson College [259] [V] July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%45%41%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [260] [W] July 17–18, 2024650 (RV)± 3.9%46%38%17%
EPIC-MRA [261] [I] July 13–17, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%43%40%17%
Public Policy Polling (D) [262] [X] July 11–12, 2024568 (RV)45%35%20%
YouGov [263] [G] July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.6%48%39%2%12%
852 (LV)49%40%2%12%
Expedition Strategies [264] [Y] June 24 – July 8, 2024275 (LV)46%40%14%
Remington Research Group (R) [265] [Q] June 29 – July 1, 2024584 (LV)± 4.0%47%43%10%
EPIC-MRA [266] June 21–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%44%42%14%
Emerson College [267] [E] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%39%18%
Mitchell Research [268] [A] June 3, 2024697 (LV)± 3.7%36%33%31%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [269] May 30–31, 2024723 (RV)± 3.6%41%41%4% [bb] 14%
636 (LV)± 3.6%43%42%3% [bc] 12%
Mitchell Research [270] [A] May 20–21, 2024697 (LV)± 3.7%40%36%24%
KAConsulting (R) [271] [Z] May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)43%37%20%
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%40%37%23%
Emerson College [273] [E] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%40%19%
Emerson College [274] [E] March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%39%20%
Mitchell Research [95] [A] March 15–16, 2024627 (LV)37%37%26%
EPIC-MRA [275] February 13–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%23%
Glengariff Group [276] [L] January 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%37%25%
EPIC-MRA [277] November 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%39%37%24%
EPIC-MRA [278] August 6–11, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%21%
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%44%38%18%
Mitchell Research [279] [A] July 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%44%38%17%
Hypothetical polling

Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%36%39%25%

Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Hill
Harper (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%36%38%26%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Justin
Amash (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%34%25%
Emerson College [274] [E] March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%35%22%

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
James
Craig (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [276] [L] January 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%36%38%27%
EPIC-MRA [277] November 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%40%38%22%
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%45%38%17%
EPIC-MRA [280] June 8–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%40%39%21%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Peter
Meijer (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%34%25%
Emerson College [274] [E] March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%34%24%
Glengariff Group [276] [L] January 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%36%36%28%
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%42%36%22%
Mitchell Research [279] [A] July 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%41%28%31%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Sandy
Pensler (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [272] [AA] April 24–25, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%34%26%
Emerson College [274] [E] March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%21%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Nikki
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%44%36%20%

Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [e]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
John
Tuttle (R)
Undecided
Emerson College [99] August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%45%35%20%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan [281]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 2,712,686 48.64% −3.62%
Republican Mike Rogers 2,693,68048.30%+2.54%
Libertarian Joseph Solis-Mullen56,6971.02%N/A
Green Douglas Marsh53,9780.97%+0.02%
Constitution Dave Stein41,3630.74%+0.09%
Natural Law Doug Dern18,7790.34%−0.05%
Total votes5,577,183 100.0%
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. Michigan Professional Union and Local 412
  2. Disqualified candidate
  3. $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Withdrawn candidate
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  7. Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  8. Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  9. Numbered as the 4th from 2015–2023
  10. "Someone else" with 3%
  11. "Someone else" with 6%
  12. Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J. D. Wilson with 0%
  13. Nikki Snyder with 6%; Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
  14. Calculated by taking the dƒifference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  15. 1 2 3 4 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%
  18. "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%; "I did not vote for this office" with 1%
  22. "Third party candidate" with 6%; "Did not or would not vote" with 1%
  23. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 2%
  24. "Another candidate" with 1%
  25. "Refused" with 2%; Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; Dern (NL) with <1%
  26. "Refused" with 1%
  27. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%
  28. "Another Candidate" with 2%; Solis-Mullen (L), Stein (C), and "Did Note Vote for Senator" with 1%
  29. "Refused" with 2%
  30. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  31. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  32. "Would not vote" with 1%
  33. Not appearing on ballot
  34. Frizzell (I), [ag] Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L) & Stein (T) with 1%; Dern (NL) with 0%
  35. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%, Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%
  36. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  37. "Other" with 1%
  38. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  39. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  40. Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 1%
  41. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  42. "Someone else" with 2%
  43. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  44. "Someone else" with 3%
  45. Marsh (G) with 2%; "Won't vote" with 2%
  46. Marsh (G) and Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (UST) and Dern (NL) with <1%
  47. Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Dern (NL) with 1%
  48. "Refused" with 1%
  49. Solis-Mullen (L), Marsh (G), Stein (C), and Dern (NLP) with 1%
  50. "Someone else" with 2%
  51. Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Marsh (G) with 2%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 0%
  52. "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 4%
  53. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  54. "Another candidate" with 4%
  55. "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release that describes Elissa Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race. [98]
  4. Poll sponsored by Rogers's campaign
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Michigan News Source
  7. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  8. Poll sponsored by Rogers's campaign
  9. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Detroit Free Press
  10. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. 1 2 Poll sponsored by USA Today
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  14. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
  15. 1 2 Poll sponsored by AARP
  16. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  17. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans
  18. Poll sponsored by Rogers' campaign
  19. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  20. Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  21. Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  22. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  23. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats
  24. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party
  25. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  26. Poll sponsored by Vapor Technology Association
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber

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