2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate, other elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994, which was the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race. [2] [3]

Background

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats have seen much more success in recent years in the state. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in the Michigan Senate, and all statewide offices. [4]

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there is no incumbent; however, most analysts consider the race leaning towards the Democrats. [5] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] and defaulting on a bank loan. [14] [15] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines. [16]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Bribery allegations

In November 2023, actor and Democratic Senate candidate Hill Harper gained attention after Politico reported that he had declined an offer of $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson that would have been contingent upon him dropping out of the Senate race and mounting a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib. [44] [45] [46] Prior to the announcement, Harper had supported a "humanitarian ceasefire" and later reiterated his support for an extension to the 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire. [47] AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann replied to the matter stating that it "was absolutely not involved in any way in this matter. Also, our records indicate that [Nelson] has not contributed to AIPAC in over a decade." [48]

Later that same month, fellow Democratic Senate candidate Nasser Beydoun alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib, despite Beydoun's publicly pro-Palestinian stance. Johnson repeatedly denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane." [49]

Had either candidate accepted the alleged donation offer, Campaign Legal Center federal reform director Saurav Ghosh said any potential coordination between a candidate and a donor with such amounts of financing would be illegal, and "could thus qualify as an excessive contribution". [48] Meanwhile, Michigan Campaign Finance Network executive director Nick Pigeon said that such overtures, if true, would "appear to violate campaign finance restrictions on coordination between independent expenditures and a candidate committee", albeit rarely enforced. [47]

Endorsements

Nasser Beydoun
Organizations
Hill Harper
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Elissa Slotkin
Statewide elected officials
U.S. representatives
State cabinet officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)
Mayors
Declined to endorse
Presidents
U.S. senators
Unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D)$682,479$333,350$349,129
Zack Burns (D)$29,073$24,782$4,290
Hill Harper (D)$1,324,792 [lower-alpha 1] $1,170,358$154,434
Leslie Love (D) [lower-alpha 2] $18,160$3,061$15,098
Pamela Pugh (D) [lower-alpha 2] $90,638$81,363$9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D)$11,684,898$5,664,013$6,020,884
Source: Federal Election Commission [80]

Elissa Slotkin has led the field in fundraising with nearly $8.9 million for her Senate campaign as of October 2023. [81] [82] By mid-August 2023, she had raised nearly $6 million for her Senate campaign. [83] Slotkin received more than $35,000 from executives of the studios involved in the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike and the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, including more than $26,000 in contributions from Disney executives, $2,500 from a Sony Pictures film executive, and $2,250 from an executive vice president for Paramount Pictures. [83]

For the first quarter of 2024, Slotkin led fundraising on the Democratic side with contributions to her campaign of $4.3 million. Hill Harper reported contributions totaling $358.690. [84]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Nasser
Beydoun
Hill
Harper
Leslie
Love
Elissa
Slotkin
OtherUndecided
Target Insyght [upper-alpha 1] January 4–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.5%0%7%2%65%26% [lower-alpha 4]
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 2] Dec 28–29, 2023549 (LV)?2%12%3%50%34%
14%56%31%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023551 (RV)± 4.1%2%8%2%34%29% [lower-alpha 5] 25%

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Nasser Beydoun
Democratic Hill Harper
Democratic Elissa Slotkin
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Residency controversy

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022. [105]

Endorsements

Sandy Pensler
Individuals
Mike Rogers
Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan [115]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
James Craig (R) [lower-alpha 2] $60,581$32,581$27,999
Michael Hoover (R)$212,986 [lower-alpha 7] $88,493$124,493
Peter Meijer (R)$508,162 [lower-alpha 8] $118,666$389,495
Sherry O'Donnell (R)$158,145$65,079$93,065
Sandy Pensler (R)$1,051,311 [lower-alpha 9] $45,558$1,005,752
Mike Rogers (R)$1,864,443$918,889$945,554
Sharon Savage (R) [lower-alpha 10] $100,039 [lower-alpha 11] $18,521$81,517
Nikki Snyder (R) [lower-alpha 2] $199,423 [lower-alpha 12] $106,254$93,169
Source: Federal Election Commission [80]

For the first quarter of 2024, Rogers reported the highest contributions on the Republican side of just over a million dollars. Meijer reported $234,734 in contributions, Amash reported $478,460 in contributions over the 5 weeks he had been in the race and Pensler reported $1,204 in contributions [116]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
James
Craig
Peter
Meijer
Sandy
Pensler
Mike
Rogers
Nikki
Snyder
OtherUndecided
March 22, 2024Nikki Snyder withdraws
Market Resource Group (R) February 19–22, 2024600 (LV)?7%2%23%6% [lower-alpha 13] 62%
February 13, 2024James Craig withdraws
Target Insyght [upper-alpha 1] January 4–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%33%11%2%20%1%1% [lower-alpha 14] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D) Oct 9–10, 2023430 (LV)± 4.7%30%19%51%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 2023477 (RV)± 4.4%9%12%6%44% [lower-alpha 15] 29%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Justin Amash
Republican Peter Meijer
Republican Sherry O'Donnell
Republican Sandy Pensler
Republican Mike Rogers
Total votes

Green Party

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Eric Borregard, graphic designer and perennial candidate [117]
  • Douglas Marsh, newspaper journalist [118]

Independents

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [120] Lean DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [121] Tilt DFebruary 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [122] Lean DNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [123] Lean DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [124] Lean DNovember 21, 2023

Polling

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Justin
Amash (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%35%22%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Peter
Meijer (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%34%24%
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 3] Jan 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%36%36%28%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%42%36%22%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 4] Jul 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%41%28%31%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pesler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Sandy
Pesler (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%21%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Mike
Rogers (R)
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%39%20%
EPIC-MRA Feb 13–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%23%
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 3] Jan 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%37%25%
EPIC-MRA Nov 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%39%37%24%
EPIC-MRA Aug 6–11, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%21%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%44%38%18%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 4] Jul 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%44%38%17%
Hypothetical polling
Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
James
Craig (R)
Undecided
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 3] Jan 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%36%38%27%
EPIC-MRA Nov 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%40%38%22%
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%45%38%17%
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%40%39%21%
Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
Nikki
Snyder (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%44%36%20%
Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Elissa
Slotkin (D)
John
Tuttle (R)
Undecided
Emerson College Aug 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%45%35%20%

Notes

  1. $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  2. 1 2 3 4 Withdrawn candidate
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  5. Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  6. Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  7. $190,182 of this total was self-funded by Hoover
  8. $107,119 of this total was self-funded by Meijer
  9. $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Pensler
  10. Did not file for Q4
  11. $100,039 of this total was self-funded by Savage
  12. $39,244 of this total was self-funded by Snyder
  13. "Someone else" with 6%
  14. Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J.D. Wilson with 0%
  15. Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  2. Poll sponsored by Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release alongside the poll that describes Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race. [85]
  3. 1 2 3 Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  4. 1 2 Poll commissioned by the Michigan Information and Research Service

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