2024 Utah gubernatorial election

Last updated

2024 Utah gubernatorial election
Flag of Utah.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Spencer Cox at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. (53545313288).jpg Brian King IMG 8565 (40364642522) (cropped).jpg Phil Lyman at Riley Gaines Speech (cropped).jpg
Nominee Spencer Cox Brian King Phil Lyman
(write-in)
Party Republican Democratic Independent Republican
Running mate Deidre Henderson Rebekah CummingsNatalie Clawson
(write-in)
Popular vote781,431420,514200,551
Percentage52.89%28.46%13.57%
2024 Utah gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Cox:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
King:     40–50%
Governor before election

Spencer Cox
Republican

Elected Governor

Spencer Cox
Republican

The 2024 Utah gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Utah, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Spencer Cox won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, state Representative Brian King and Republican state Representative Phil Lyman, who ran as a write-in candidate after being defeated in the Republican primary. [1] Primary elections took place on June 25, 2024. [2]

Contents

Background

Utah is considered to be a strongly red state at the federal and state levels: Republicans control all statewide executive offices, the entire congressional delegation, and supermajorities in both state legislative chambers. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Utah by 20.5 percentage points. [3] [4]

Cox was first elected in 2020, defeating Christopher Peterson by 32.65 points. [5]

Republican primary

Incumbent Republican governor Spencer Cox faced criticism from many conservatives for his moderate political positions, including his veto of HB11, [6] and opposition to former president Donald Trump. [7] Cox was booed at the Utah Republican state convention in April 2024. [8] He faced a primary challenge from state representative Phil Lyman, who won over 67% of the vote at the convention. [9] However, Cox collected enough signatures to appear on the primary ballot. Cox consistently led Lyman in polls and won re-nomination, though Lyman refused to concede. [10] [11]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Declined

Endorsements

Phil Lyman
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 13, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Spencer Cox (R)$1,263,235$2,142,975$645,543
Phil Lyman (R)$1,408,004$1,051,850$356,153
Source: State of Utah Financial Disclosures [22]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Spencer
Cox		Phil
Lyman		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights June 20–21, 2024432 (LV)± 4.7%55%42%2% [b] 1%
HarrisX [A] June 4–7, 2024477 (RV)± 4.5%62%25%–12%
Noble Predictive Insights April 8–16, 2024283 (RV)± 5.8%51%4%9% [c] 36%
Dan Jones & Associates January 16–21, 2024428 (RV)± 4.7%50%3%11% [d] 37%

Results

Convention

Republican convention results
Candidate/Running mate Round 1Round 2
Votes  % Votes %
Phil Lyman /Layne Bangerter 166344.24%249567.54%
Spencer Cox/Deidre Henderson 1085 28.86% 119932.46%
Carson Jorgensen/Corrine Johnson 970 25.80%Eliminated
Scott Robbins 21 0.56%Eliminated
Sylvia Miera-Fisk 20 0.53% Eliminated
Inactive Ballots 2 ballots 4 ballots

Debate

2024 Utah gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CoxLyman
1Jun. 11, 2024Utah Debate CommissionCarolina Ballard YouTube PP

Primary

Results by county: Cox 50-60% 60-70% Lyman 50-60% 70-80% 2024 Utah Governor GOP Primary Results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Cox
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lyman
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Spencer Cox (incumbent)
Deidre Henderson (incumbent) 		232,164 54.40%
Republican Phil Lyman
Natalie Clawson		194,63945.60%
Total votes426,803 100.00%

Aftermath

Lyman later sued, claiming that the Republican convention was responsible for selecting the party's nominee and that the primary was illegal. The Utah Supreme Court rejected his argument. [24] Lyman later announced that he would run as a write-in candidate. [25]

Cox has since backed Trump after an assassination attempt made during a rally on July 13, stating in a letter: "Your life was spared. Now, because of that miracle, you have the opportunity to do something that no other person on earth can do right now: unify and save our country." [26] Cox also stated in a later news conference: “I am doing everything I can to help and support him...We will still have lots of disagreements, I’m sure, and we’ll still do everything we can to help the state of Utah and help the Republican Party be successful.” [27]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Brian King
Political parties

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominee

Independent American Party

Candidates

Nominee

  • Tommy Williams, perennial candidate and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 [31]
    • Running mate: Archie Williams, heavy equipment operator and perennial candidate [31]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Tom Tomeny, businessman [31]
    • Running mate: William Lansing Taylor, geologist [31]

Other candidates

Republican write-in

General election

Debates

2024 Utah gubernatorial election debates [33]
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic Libertarian Write-in
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CoxKingLathamLyman
1Sep. 11, 2024Utah Debate CommissionJason Perry YouTube PPPN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Inside Elections [35] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [37] Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [38] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [39] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Spencer Cox (R)$2,415,468$3,782,382$158,370
Brian King (D)$632,080$651,962$24,436
Source: State of Utah Financial Disclosures [40]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Spencer
Cox (R)		Brian
King (D)		Robert
Latham (L)		Tommy
Williams (I)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25-28, 2024695 (LV)± 3.7%43%26%3%3%18% [e] 6%
HarrisX [A] October 15–19, 2024813 (RV)± 3.4%51%19%3%4%2% [f] 22%
61%21%4%7%6% [g] –
Noble Predictive Insights October 2–7, 2024539 (LV)± 4.22%54%26%–––20%
49%23%2%2%5% [h] 19%
600 (RV)± 4.0%52%26%–––21%
Public Policy Polling (D) [B] September 27–28, 2024612 (LV)± 4.0%45%32%–––23%
35%24%3%–19% [i] 18%
Lighthouse Research [C] August 29 – September 4, 2024518 (RV)± 4.31%48%27%7%4%8% [j] 5%
HarrisX [A] August 2–9, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%56%17%4%6%–17%
59%19%–––22%

Results

2024 Utah gubernatorial election [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
781,431 52.89% −10.09
Democratic
420,51428.63%−1.72
Write-In
200,55113.57%N/A
Libertarian
  • J. Robert Latham
  • Barry Evan Short
41,1642.79%−0.73
Independent American
  • Tommy Williams
  • Archie Williams
27,4801.86%+0.09
Independent
  • Tom Tomeny
  • William Lansing Taylor
5,7920.39%N/A
Write-In
  • Charlie Tautuaa
  • Sylvia Miera Fisk
5250.04%N/A
Total votes1,477,457 100.00%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Would not vote" with 2%
  3. ↑ Scott Robbins with 4%; Sylvia Fisk with 3%; Carson Jorgenson with 2%
  4. ↑ Scott Robbins with 5%; Sylvia Fisk and Carson Jorgenson with 3%
  5. ↑ Lyman (Write-in) with 15%; "Refused" with 3%
  6. ↑ Tomeny (I) with 2%
  7. ↑ Tomeny (I) with 6%
  8. ↑ Lyman (Write-in) with 5%
  9. ↑ Lyman (Write-In) with 19%
  10. ↑ Tomeny (I) with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Deseret News and the University of Utah
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Brian King's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission.

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References

  1. ↑ "Utah Governor Election Results 2024: Cox vs. Smith King". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Party control of Utah state government". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Utah 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Utah 2020 gubernatorial results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Utah governor becomes latest to veto transgender sports ban". Politico . March 22, 2022.
  7. ↑ Samuel Benson (February 15, 2024). "Utah Gov. Cox: Republicans making 'a huge mistake' if they nominate Trump". Deseret News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  8. ↑ Hannah Schoenbaum (June 12, 2024). "Utah governor defends record in primary debate after harsh reception at GOP convention". AP News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  9. ↑ Brigham Tomco (April 27, 2024). "Phil Lyman beats Gov. Spencer Cox at Utah GOP convention. Both advance to primary". Deseret News. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  10. ↑ Bridger Beal-Cvetko (June 25, 2024). "Spencer Cox cruises to win in GOP primary; Phil Lyman says he won't concede". Deseret News .
  11. ↑ Katie McKellar (June 25, 2024). "AP calls race for Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, but Lyman won't concede". Utah News Dispatch.
  12. 1 2 McKellar, Katie (April 21, 2022). "Are Utah Republicans mad at Gov. Cox for transgender veto? Let political chips fall, he says". Deseret News . Retrieved April 25, 2022. Cox has said he does intend to run for reelection in 2024.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 Schott, Bryan; Anderson Stern, Emily (April 27, 2024). "Beat at GOP convention, Gov. Cox tells delegates: 'Maybe you just hate that I don't hate enough.'". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  14. ↑ Price, Carlysle (May 4, 2024). "Phil Lyman announces Natalie Clawson as selection for lieutenant govornor". KSL-TV . Retrieved May 4, 2024.
  15. ↑ Emily Stern (May 3, 2024). "Judge says Phil Lyman's running mate stays off Utah Republicans' primary ballot — has days to find a new one". The Salt Lake Tribune .
  16. ↑ Schott, Bryan (April 25, 2024). "Carson Jorgensen taps Utah Parents United founder as GOP running mate in 2024 gubernatorial race". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  17. ↑ Aertz, Lindsay (September 20, 2023). "Jason Chaffetz not closing the door, not actively pursuing 2024 run for Senate or governor". KSL (radio network) . "That's not something I'm planning to do, challenging Governor Cox is not in my plans," he said of 2024. But he said he is keeping his eye on a possible 2028 run for Utah governor.
  18. ↑ "Are Jason Chaffetz or Robert O'Brien planning to run for office in Utah?". February 21, 2023.
  19. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (August 27, 2023). "The most powerful Utahn you've never heard of could be America's next vice president". Deseret News . Retrieved September 5, 2023.
  20. ↑ Hanson, Libbey (January 23, 2024). "Riley Gaines Speaks at the U, Endorses Lyman for Governor". The Daily Utah Chronicle. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  21. ↑ "Vote Lyman to Lead!". Eagle Forum. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  22. ↑ "Public Search". State of Utah Financial Disclosures.
  23. ↑ "2024 Primary Election Republican for Governor" . Retrieved July 6, 2024.
  24. ↑ Gehrke, Robert (August 13, 2024). "Utah Supreme Court rejects Phil Lyman's bid to kick Gov. Spencer Cox off the ballot and out of office". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
  25. ↑ Stern, Emily Anderson (August 12, 2024). "After losing GOP primary, Phil Lyman will run as a write-in candidate for Utah governor". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
  26. ↑ Sullivan, Kate (July 19, 2024). "Utah Republican Gov. Spencer Cox pledges Trump his support after saying last week he wouldn't vote for him". CNN. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  27. ↑ Sentner, Irie (July 19, 2024). "Utah governor, a longtime Trump skeptic, offers endorsement after assassination attempt". Politico. Retrieved August 11, 2024.
  28. ↑ Bojórquez, Kim (December 4, 2023). "State Rep. Brian King to run for Utah governor in 2024". Axios . Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  29. ↑ Hudson, Vanessa (April 29, 2024). "Democrat Brian King picks University of Utah librarian as his gubernatorial running mate". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  30. ↑ Bates, Suzanne (April 28, 2024). "Utah Democrats endorse Brian King for governor, Caroline Gleich for Senate at state convention". Deseret News . Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "2024 Candidate Filings – Utah Voter Information". vote.utah.gov. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
  32. ↑ Stern, Emily Anderson (August 13, 2024). "After losing GOP primary, Phil Lyman will run as a write-in candidate for Utah governor". The Salt Lake Tribune . Archived from the original on August 14, 2024. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
  33. ↑ McKellar, Katie (September 10, 2024). "A Republican, Democrat and Libertarian qualify for Utah's gubernatorial debate • Utah News Dispatch". Utah News Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  34. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  35. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  36. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  37. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  38. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  39. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  40. ↑ "Public Search". State of Utah Financial Disclosures.
  41. ↑ "2024 Utah General Election". enhancedvoting.com. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
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