2024 United States Senate election in Montana

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2024 United States Senate election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
←  2018 November 5, 20242030 →
Turnout75.92% (of registered voters) [1] Increase2.svg 4.39
  Tim Sheehy and Ryan Zinke (cropped).jpg JonTester (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Tim Sheehy Jon Tester
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote319,682276,305
Percentage52.64%45.50%
2024 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Sheehy:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tester:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Sheehy
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Sheehy's victory gave Republicans control of both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. [2] Although Tester outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 12.8 points, which was the strongest overperformance of any Democratic Senate candidate, it was still not enough to win, as Donald Trump carried Montana by nearly 20 points. [3]

Contents

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. Tester's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. [4]

Background

Montana has generally been considered a red state at the federal executive level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Republicans have also won all of the state's U.S. House elections since 1996. Within this time frame, Democrats have been more successful in elections for state offices and the U.S. Senate, with its governorship, state legislature, and Senate seats alternating between Democratic and Republican control. Leading up to the 2024 election, Republicans controlled both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and had supermajority control of both houses of the state legislature.

Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy had since gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting. He has refused to endorse fellow Democrat Kamala Harris for president, a contributing factor towards the Senate race not being nationalized. In 2012, the last election that featured Tester on the same ballot as the presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won by 13.64%, while Tester won by 3.72% without receiving a majority (50%) of the vote. [5] [6] [7] [8]

In October 2024, total campaign spending for both sides, much of it coming from out-of-state dark money groups, was on track to be $487 for each voter in Montana, making it the most expensive congressional campaign as measured per capita in U.S. history, with Democrats outspending Republicans by $50 million. [9]

Top-two primary proposal

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab." [10] [11]

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race. [12] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19. [13] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary. [14]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor [16]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$37,330,566$26,017,759$11,793,381
Source: Federal Election Commission [37]

Results

Primary results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Tester 70-80% >90% 2024 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Montana results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Tester
  •   70–80%
  •   >90%
Democratic primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 104,279 96.96%
Democratic Michael Hummert3,2723.04%
Total votes107,551 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Sheehy

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Matt Rosendale (withdrawn)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)$42,967 [a] $39,697$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)$10,547,437 [b] $8,324,164$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission [37]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Brad
Johnson		Matt
Rosendale		Tim
Sheehy		Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R) [74] November 12–14, 2023888 (LV)± 3.28%–24%40%36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [75] October 23–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%6%35%38%21% [d]
0%41%44%15%
J.L. Partners [76] August 12–17, 2023418 (LV)?–52%21%28%
Public Policy Polling (D) [77] June 19–20, 2023510 (LV)± 4.3%–64%10%26%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Russell
Fagg		Brad
Johnson		Matt
Rosendale		Tim
Sheehy		Corey
Stapleton		Ryan
Zinke		Other/Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) [78] February 18–21, 2023600 (LV) [e] ± 4.0%2%–36%2%6%26%28%

Results

Primary results by county: Sheehy 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Montana results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Sheehy
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tim Sheehy 139,857 73.60%
Republican Brad Johnson 36,92619.43%
Republican Charles Walkingchild Sr.13,2296.96%
Total votes190,012 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Green primary

Candidates

Withdrew after nomination

  • Michael Downey, drought program coordinator [16]

Replacement nominee

  • Robert Barb, nominee for governor in 2020 [80]

Results

Green primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Michael Downey 679 62.4%
Green Robert Barb41037.6%
Total votes1,089 100.0%

Aftermath

Michael Downey, the winner of the Green Party primary election, dropped out of the race on August 12, citing the possibility that he might be a spoiler candidate in a close race. [81] The Green Party of Montana selected the runner-up, Robert Barb, to replace Downey. The Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that the Montana Green Party did not follow its procedure for designating a replacement candidate and asking for Barb to be removed from the ballot. [82] Kathy Seeley, the district court judge hearing the case, denied the request. The Montana Democratic Party appealed to the Montana Supreme Court, but the justices refused to take the case. [83]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [84] Lean R (flip)September 12, 2024
Inside Elections [85] Tilt R (flip)September 12, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [86] Lean R (flip)September 6, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [87] Lean R (flip)October 20, 2024
Elections Daily [88] Lean R (flip)August 9, 2024
CNalysis [89] Tilt R (flip)November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics [90] Lean R (flip)September 12, 2024
Split Ticket [91] Lean R (flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Tim Sheehy (R)

U.S. representatives

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Individuals

Organizations

Jon Tester (D)

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$88,163,151$84,499,372$4,144,352
Tim Sheehy (R)$26,161,679 [f] $22,284,629$3,877,050
Source: Federal Election Commission [37]

Debates

DatesHostTesterSheehyLink
June 10, 2024Montana Broadcasters AssociationParticipantParticipant YouTube
September 30, 2024Montana PBSParticipantParticipant YouTube

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tim
Sheehy (R)		Jon
Tester (D)		Undecided
[g] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [103] October 5 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.7%43.0%6.3%Sheehy +7.7
538 [104] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.7%42.7%7.6%Sheehy +7.0%
270toWin [105] October 10–27, 2024November 4, 202451.0%45.0%4.0%Sheehy +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ [106] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.0%43.1%6.9%Sheehy +6.9%
Average50.4%43.5%6.1%Sheehy +6.9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Tim
Sheehy (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [107] November 1–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%39%50%5% [h] 6%
Emerson College [108] [A] October 23–25, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%51%2% [i] –
46%50%2% [i] 3%
MSU Billings [109] September 30 – October 16, 2024760 (LV)± 3.6%43%43%6% [j] 8%
NYT/Siena College [110] October 5–8, 2024656 (LV)± 4.3%44%52%–4%
656 (RV)44%51%–4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [111] [B] September 29 – October 1, 2024500 (LV)± 4.3%45%51%2% [k] 2%
Remington Research Group (R) [112] [C] September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%44%52%–4%
RMG Research [113] [D] September 12–19, 2024491 (LV)± 4.4%43%50%2%4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D) [114] [E] 		August 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%–4%
41%49%5% [l] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [115] [B] August 18–20, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%44%51%3% [m] 2%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [116] [F] August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%43%50%–7%
RMG Research [117] [D] August 6–14, 2024540 (RV)± 4.2%49%44%2%4%
American Pulse Research & Polling [118] [G] August 10–12, 2024538 (RV)± 4.2%45%51%–4%
Emerson College [119] [A] August 5–6, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%–5%
Expedition Strategies [120] [H] June 24 – July 8, 2024251 (LV)–47%48%–4%
Remington Research Group (R) [121] [C] June 29 – July 1, 2024570 (LV)± 4.0%45%50%–5%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [122] [I] June 22–26, 2024649 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%5% [m] 7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [123] [B] June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%4% [n] 4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [124] [J] June 3–5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%48%48%–4%
43%46%4% [o] 7%
J.L. Partners [126] March 26–29, 2024503 (LV)± 4.3%45%48%–7%
Emerson College [127] [A] February 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%42%–14%
SurveyUSA [128] [K] February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%3%7%
Emerson College [129] October 1–4, 2023447 (RV)± 4.6%39%35%6%21%
J.L. Partners [130] August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)–42%46%–12%
Hypothetical polling

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Greg
Gianforte (R)		Undecided
Political Company (R) [131] January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%45%45%10%

Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Brad
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [128] [K] February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%50%35%4%11%

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Matt
Rosendale (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [128] [K] February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%4%7%
J.L. Partners [130] August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)?43%46%–11%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [78] February 18–21, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%5%7%
Political Company (R) [131] January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%–15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Ryan
Zinke (R)		Undecided
Political Company (R) [131] January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%46%40%14%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Montana [132]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Tim Sheehy 319,682 52.64% +5.86%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent)276,30545.50%−4.83%
Libertarian Sid Daoud7,2721.20%−1.68%
Green Robert Barb4,0030.66%N/A
Total votes607,262 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana [133]

CountyTim Sheehy
Republican		Jon Tester
Democratic		Sid Daoud
Libertarian		Robert Barb
Green		Total

Votes

#%#%#%#%
Beaverhead 3,70763.45%2,02434.65%671.15%430.74%5,841
Big Horn 1,58035.48%2,80562.99%420.94%260.58%4,453
Blaine 1,19238.99%1,81459.34%290.95%220.72%3,057
Broadwater 3,50372.35%1,21925.18%821.69%380.78%4,842
Carbon 4,45960.35%2,79437.82%951.29%400.54%7,388
Carter 73285.71%10912.76%70.82%60.70%854
Cascade 19,80852.30%17,32345.73%4621.22%2840.75%37,877
Chouteau 1,64355.49%1,27443.03%250.84%190.64%2,961
Custer 3,81865.60%1,85531.87%811.39%661.13%5,820
Daniels 71975.37%22023.06%80.84%70.73%954
Dawson 3,26970.26%1,25927.06%691.48%561.20%4,653
Deer Lodge 1,82037.07%2,99160.92%621.26%370.75%4,910
Fallon 1,20080.27%25617.12%302.01%90.60%1,495
Fergus 4,74970.22%1,91028.24%630.93%410.61%6,763
Flathead 38,58260.72%23,64737.21%9741.53%3390.53%63,542
Gallatin 30,53743.28%39,09455.41%6460.92%2780.39%70,555
Garfield 72090.45%688.54%50.63%50.63%796
Glacier 1,42627.78%3,63870.86%400.78%300.58%5,134
Golden Valley 42281.15%9117.50%50.96%20.38%520
Granite 1,37763.02%77835.60%190.87%110.50%2,185
Hill 3,21747.09%3,43850.32%1091.60%681.00%6,832
Jefferson 5,10861.15%3,09937.10%971.16%490.59%8,353
Judith Basin 99172.87%35225.88%120.88%50.37%1,360
Lake 8,88152.26%7,79845.89%2001.18%1140.67%16,993
Lewis and Clark 19,36745.69%22,17552.31%5271.24%3200.75%42,389
Liberty 68368.16%30730.64%70.70%50.50%1,002
Lincoln 8,29170.15%3,28727.81%1601.35%810.69%11,819
Madison 4,38867.36%2,02531.09%691.06%320.49%6,514
McCone 89082.03%17315.94%131.20%90.83%1,085
Meagher 84571.61%30926.19%161.36%100.85%1,180
Mineral 1,83164.27%95033.35%451.58%230.81%2,849
Missoula 23,74332.36%48,42966.00%7511.02%4490.61%73,372
Musselshell 2,40880.13%53617.84%431.43%180.60%3,005
Park 5,61447.51%6,00950.85%1331.13%600.51%11,816
Petroleum 27483.54%5015.24%41.22%00.00%328
Phillips 1,67876.27%49022.27%170.77%150.68%2,200
Pondera 1,80462.94%1,01735.48%250.87%200.70%2,866
Powder River 88679.82%20518.45%161.44%30.27%1,110
Powell 2,16065.43%1,06532.26%501.51%260.79%3,301
Prairie 48970.56%18025.97%142.02%101.44%693
Ravalli 19,11663.62%10,44934.78%3221.07%1600.53%30,047
Richland 3,91473.85%1,23823.36%891.68%591.11%5,300
Roosevelt 1,63641.33%2,24956.82%360.91%370.93%3,958
Rosebud 2,20859.29%1,43538.53%491.32%320.86%3,724
Sanders 5,66369.86%2,24127.65%1211.49%811.00%8,106
Sheridan 1,15961.10%68536.11%281.48%251.32%1,897
Silver Bow 6,23233.84%11,85464.36%1911.0%1410.77%18,418
Stillwater 4,47375.40%1,35222.79%651.10%420.71%5,932
Sweet Grass 1,68570.15%66527.69%331.37%190.79%2,402
Teton 2,32364.42%1,21633.72%431.19%240.67%3,606
Toole 1,43670.25%55827.30%291.42%211.03%2,044
Treasure 33675.17%10122.60%81.79%20.45%447
Valley 2,67265.28%1,30731.93%671.64%471.14%4,093
Wheatland 79272.93%27825.60%100.92%60.55%1,086
Wibaux 41475.27%12122.00%112.00%40.73%550
Yellowstone 46,81257.10%33,49340.85%1,0511.28%6290.77%81,985

Notes

  1. ↑ $30,000 of this total was self-funded by Johnson
  2. ↑ $2,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ Jeremy Mygland with 1%
  5. ↑ Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. ↑ $2,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  7. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  9. 1 2 Daoud (L) with 1%; Barb (G) with 1%
  10. ↑ Daoud (L) with 4%; Barb (G) with 2%
  11. ↑ Sid Daoud (L) with 1%
  12. ↑ Sid Daoud (L) with 4%; Michael Downey with 1%
  13. 1 2 Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 1%
  14. ↑ Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 2%
  15. ↑ Sid Daoud (L) with 4%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Hill.
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  4. 1 2 Poll commissioned by the Napolitan Institute
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
  7. ↑ Poll commissioned by KULR-TV
  8. ↑ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  9. ↑ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC "with ties to" U.S. Senator Steve Daines, who is supporting Sheehy. [125]
  11. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic challenger and U.S. Representative Colin Allred. The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Michigan</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, in her bid to succeed Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who declined to seek a fifth term. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, making Michigan one of only four states to split their tickets for president and Senate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Virginia</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire. The primary elections were held on September 13, 2022. Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan was re-elected over Republican retired brigadier general Don Bolduc by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.1% that surpassed most polls. Hassan won her initial bid for this seat in 2016 by only 1,017 votes or 0.14%. This election marked the first time a Democrat won re-election to New Hampshire's class 3 Senate seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 8, 2022, to elect two U.S. Representatives from Montana, one from each of its congressional districts. Prior to this election cycle, Montana had one at-large district, represented by Republican Matt Rosendale. However, during the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained the 2nd district that it lost in 1993.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Ohio</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in New York</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in New York was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New York. Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand was re-elected to a third term, defeating Republican businessman Mike Sapraicone. Primary elections took place on June 25, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Montana</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana</span>

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Montana Republican presidential primary</span>

The 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary was held on June 4, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis. The contest was among the last in the Republican primary cycle, held alongside primaries in New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

References

  1. ↑ "2024 General Election - November 5, 2024". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen.
  2. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ↑ Silver, Nate. "Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate". www.natesilver.net. Retrieved November 29, 2024.
  4. ↑ Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico . Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  5. ↑ Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023). "Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024". Morning Consult . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  6. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (July 11, 2024). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved April 27, 2023..
  7. ↑ Draeger, Jonathan (April 19, 2023). "GOP Poised To Regain Senate Majority, Polls Indicate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved July 13, 2024.
  8. ↑ CARLY GRAF Lee Newspapers and (August 23, 2024). "On final day of the DNC, Tester says he won't endorse a candidate for president". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Associated Press. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  9. ↑ Brown, Matthew (October 29, 2024). "Tester, Sheehy do battle in your mailbox". Montana Free Press. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  10. ↑ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren (April 3, 2023). "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
  11. ↑ "Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester". AP News. April 5, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  12. ↑ Corasaniti, Nick (April 14, 2023). "Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules". The New York Times.
  13. ↑ Brown, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary". Associated Press.
  14. ↑ Singer, Jeff. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3". Daily Kos . Retrieved August 6, 2023. The end of Montana's legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later.
  15. ↑ Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News . Retrieved February 22, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  17. ↑ Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). "Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines". Politico . Retrieved April 8, 2023. Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
  18. ↑ Autry, Lisa (March 26, 2024). "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio . Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  19. ↑ Browning, Kellen; Irvine, Tailyr (May 17, 2024). "Montana's Senate Race Could Come Down to One Question: Do I Trust You?". The New York Times . Retrieved May 18, 2024.
  20. ↑ Rod, March (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  22. ↑ Fernandez, Madison (May 20, 2024). "Pro-Israel group boosts Democrats in battleground races". Politico . Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  23. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection". endcitizensunited.org (Press release). March 30, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
  24. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  25. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  26. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  27. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  28. ↑ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  29. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved July 28, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Sen. Jon Tester for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Montana". Reproductive Freedom for All. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
  34. ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
  35. ↑ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
  36. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
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  38. 1 2 3 "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
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  40. ↑ Rafferty, Melissa (October 18, 2023). "Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana". KPAX-TV . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  41. ↑ Ambarian, Jonathan (October 19, 2023). "Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race". KTVH-DT . Retrieved October 26, 2023. One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester.
  42. ↑ Zanona, Melanie (March 8, 2024). "GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana says he is not running for reelection | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  43. 1 2 Vakil, Carolin (June 29, 2023). "Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race". The Hill.
  44. 1 2 Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  45. ↑ Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF . Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
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  49. 1 2 "Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester". Fox News . July 11, 2023.
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  54. ↑ "PUNCHBOWL NEWS: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) is endorsing Tim Sheehy for Senate in Montana - Tim Sheehy". timformt.com. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
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  56. ↑ "Sen. Tommy Tuberville endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
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  59. ↑ "I'm proud to endorse Tim Sheehy for United States Senate!". Twitter . January 22, 2024.
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  63. ↑ "The moral duty leaders owe is to the citizens of this nation, not another one. Public service should be about serving the public, not yourself. Today I'm endorsing @SheehyforMT for U.S. Senate. He's a Navy SEAL, businessman, and patriot who understands what America-First is really about". X . Retrieved March 11, 2024.
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  74. ↑ co/efficient (R)
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  78. 1 2 OnMessage Inc. (R)
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  104. ↑ 538
  105. ↑ 270toWin
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  107. ↑ AtlasIntel
  108. ↑ Emerson College
  109. ↑ MSU Billings
  110. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  111. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  112. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
  113. ↑ RMG Research
  114. ↑ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    David Binder Research (D)
  115. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  116. ↑ Rasmussen Reports (R)
  117. ↑ RMG Research
  118. ↑ American Pulse Research & Polling
  119. ↑ Emerson College
  120. ↑ Expedition Strategies
  121. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
  122. ↑ Torchlight Strategies (R)
  123. ↑ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  124. ↑ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
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  126. ↑ J.L. Partners
  127. ↑ Emerson College
  128. 1 2 3 SurveyUSA
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  130. 1 2 J.L. Partners
  131. 1 2 3 Political Company (R)
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