2024 United States Senate election in Montana

Not to be confused with 2024 Montana Senate election.

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate election in Montana

←  2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator Jon Tester Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. ^[1] Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024. ^[2] The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.

Background

Montana is generally considered a red state at the federal level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean, ^[3] and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split. ^[4]

Failed attempt to pass "top-two" primary system

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab." ^{[5] [6]}

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race. ^[7] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19. ^[8] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary. ^[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Michael Hummert ^[10]
• Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present) ^[11]

Endorsements

Jon Tester

U.S. senators

• Joe Manchin, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–present) ^[12]

Governors

• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019-present) ^[13]

Organizations

• American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) ^[14]
• Council for a Livable World ^[15]
• End Citizens United ^[16]
• Feminist Majority Foundation PAC ^[17]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America ^[18]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs ^[19]
• League of Conservation Voters ^[20]
• Let America Vote ^[16]
• National Organization for Women PAC ^[21]
• Natural Resources Defense Council ^[22]
• Peace Action ^[23]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund ^[24]
• Population Connection Action Fund ^[25]
• Reproductive Freedom for All ^[26]
• Swing Left ^[27]

Labor unions

• National Education Association ^[28]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 9th, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)	$25,164,363	$14,422,282	$11,222,655
Source: Federal Election Commission [29]

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Michael Hummert
	Democratic	Jon Tester (incumbent)
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Brad Johnson, former chair of the Montana Public Service Commission (2015–2023) and former Montana Secretary of State (2005–2009) ^[30]
• Tim Sheehy, founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace and retired Navy SEAL ^[31]
• Charles Walking Child, environmental contractor and candidate for Montana's 2nd congressional district in 2022 ^[10]

Withdrew

• Jeremy Mygland, construction company owner (endorsed Rosendale, running for state senate) ^[32]
• Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (endorsed Sheehy) ^[33]

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present) (endorsed Sheehy, running for re-election ) ^[34]
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from Montana's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) (endorsed Sheehy, running for re-election ) ^{[35] [36]}

Endorsements

Tim Sheehy

Executive Branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) ^[37]

U.S. senators

• John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present) ^[38]
• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present) ^[39]
• Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present) ^[40]
• Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present) ^[41]
• Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present) ^[42]
• Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present) ^[43]
• Cindy Hyde-Smith, U.S. senator from Mississippi (2018–present) ^[43]
• Markwayne Mullin, U.S. senator from Oklahoma (2023–present) ^[44]
• Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present) ^[40]
• Eric Schmitt, U.S. senator from Missouri (2023–present) ^[45]
• John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present) ^[46]
• Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present) ^[47]

Governors

• Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota (2016–present) ^[48]
• Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present) ^[34]
• Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota (2019–present) ^[49]

U.S. representatives

• Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present) ^[50]
• Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995−1999) from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979−1999) ^[51]
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021−present) ^[52]
• Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2021−present) ^[53]
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from Montana's 1st congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) ^[35]

Individuals

• Vivek Ramaswamy, former 2024 presidential candidate ^[54]

Organizations

• Americans for Prosperity ^[55]
• National Republican Senatorial Committee ^[56]
• Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America ^[57]

Matt Rosendale (withdrawn)

U.S. senators

• Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present) ^[58]

U.S. representatives

• Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present) ^[59]

State legislators

• Jason Ellsworth, president of the Montana Senate (2023−present) from the 43rd district (2019–present) ^[60]
• Matt Regier, speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (2023–present) from the 4th district (2017–present) ^[60]

Individuals

• Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist (2017) and former executive chair of Breitbart News ^[59]

Organizations

• Gun Owners of America ^[61]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31st, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)	$38,786	$35,694	$3,092
Tim Sheehy (R)	$8,420,819 [lower-alpha 1]	$6,494,952	$1,925,866
Source: Federal Election Commission [29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Brad Johnson	Matt Rosendale	Tim Sheehy	Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R)	November 12–14, 2023	888 (LV)	± 3.28%	–	24%	40%	36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	October 23–25, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	6%	35%	38%	21% [lower-alpha 3]
				0%	41%	44%	15%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	418 (LV)	?	–	52%	21%	28%
Public Policy Polling (D)	June 19–20, 2023	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	64%	10%	26%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Russell Fagg	Brad Johnson	Matt Rosendale	Tim Sheehy	Corey Stapleton	Ryan Zinke	Other/Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)	February 18–21, 2023	600 (LV) [lower-alpha 4]	± 4.0%	2%	–	36%	2%	6%	26%	28%

Results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Brad Johnson
	Republican	Tim Sheehy
	Republican	Charles Walking Child
Total votes

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

• Sid Daoud, Kalispell city councilor and chair of the Montana Libertarian Party ^[62]

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Barb ^[10]
• Michael Downey ^[10]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [63]	Tossup	November 30, 2023
Inside Elections [64]	Tossup	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [65]	Tossup	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily [66]	Tossup	May 4, 2023
CNalysis [67]	Tossup	November 21, 2023

Polling

Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Tim Sheehy (R)	Other	Undecided
J.L. Partners	March 26–29, 2024	503 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	48%	–	7%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1]	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	42%	–	14%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	40%	3%	7%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	447 (RV)	± 4.6%	39%	35%	6%	21%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	42%	46%	–	12%

Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Brad Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	50%	35%	4%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	40%	4%	7%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	?	43%	46%	–	11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)	February 18–21, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	46%	5%	7%
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	40%	–	15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Ryan Zinke (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	40%	14%

Notes

1. $1,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Jeremy Mygland with 1%
4. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Hill
2. Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

References

1. Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022). "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
2. "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
3. Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023). "Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024". Morning Consult . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
4. Coleman, J. Miles (February 2, 2023). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
5. Kimbel-Sannit, Arren (April 3, 2023). "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
6. "Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester". AP News. April 5, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
7. Corasaniti, Nick (April 14, 2023). "Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules". The New York Times.
8. Brown, Matthew (April 19, 2023). "Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary". Associated Press.
9. Singer, Jeff. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3". Daily Kos . Retrieved August 6, 2023. The end of Montana's legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later.
10. "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
11. Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News . Retrieved February 22, 2023.
12. Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). "Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines". Politico . Retrieved April 8, 2023. Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
13. "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
14. Rod, March (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
15. "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
16. "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection". endcitizensunited.org (Press release). March 30, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
17. "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
18. "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
19. "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
20. "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
21. "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
22. Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
23. "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved July 28, 2023.
24. "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
25. "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
26. "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Sen. Jon Tester for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Montana". Reproductive Freedom for All. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 21, 2023.
27. "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
28. "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
29. "2024 Election United States Senate - Montana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
30. Rafferty, Melissa (October 18, 2023). "Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana". KPAX-TV . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
31. Warren, Bradley (June 27, 2023). "Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana". KULR-8 Local News. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
32. Ambarian, Jonathan (October 19, 2023). "Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race". KTVH-DT . Retrieved October 26, 2023. One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester.
33. Zanona, Melanie (March 8, 2024). "GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana says he is not running for reelection | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
34. Vakil, Carolin (June 29, 2023). "Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race". The Hill.
35. Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
36. Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF . Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
37. "Trump backs Sheehy in Montana Senate race". www.thehill.com. February 9, 2024. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
38. "No. 3 Senate Republican endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana in attempt to consolidate support". Washington Examiner. July 10, 2023. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
39. Weaver, Al (June 27, 2023). "GOP gets its wish with Sheehy in Montana: 'A blank canvas with a big checkbook'". The Hill. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
40. "Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester". Fox News . July 11, 2023.
41. "Tom Cotton Endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate Race". National Review . June 27, 2023.
42. McCormack, John (June 27, 2023). "Montana's Steve Daines Endorses Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in Senate GOP Primary". The National Review. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
43. "Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester | Fox News". www.foxnews.com. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
44. "Senate Republicans try to stop messy Montana primary". Politico . June 28, 2023.
45. "PUNCHBOWL NEWS: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) is endorsing Tim Sheehy for Senate in Montana - Tim Sheehy". timformt.com. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
46. "GOP goes all-out to avoid another Senate primary mess". Politico . July 11, 2023.
47. "Sen. Tommy Tuberville endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
48. Gick, Justin (February 4, 2024). "Gov. Burgum endorses Tim Sheehy for Montana's Senate race". www.kfyrtv.com. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
49. "Popular GOP governor announces endorsement in key battleground Senate race: 'Accomplishes missions'". Fox News . February 9, 2024. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
50. "I'm proud to endorse Tim Sheehy for United States Senate!". Twitter . January 22, 2024.
51. Gillespie, Brandon. "Former Navy SEAL seeking to oust three-term Democratic senator builds momentum with more big-name support". Fox News .
52. "Marjorie Taylor Green Endorses Tim Sheehy for Senate". NonStop Local .
53. "Rosendale seeking reelection to Montana House seat after dropping out of Senate race". The Hill .
54. "The moral duty leaders owe is to the citizens of this nation, not another one. Public service should be about serving the public, not yourself. Today I'm endorsing @SheehyforMT for U.S. Senate. He's a Navy SEAL, businessman, and patriot who understands what America-First is really about". X . Retrieved March 11, 2024.
55. Action, A. F. P. (November 2, 2023). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
56. Action, N. R. S. C. (July 28, 2023). "NRSC-backed GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy makes first ad buy in Montana". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 28, 2023.
57. Stacy, Nicole (January 30, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
58. Sivak, David (February 9, 2024). "Rosendale mounts lonely quest for Senate in Montana". Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
59. Bender, Michael (February 9, 2024). "G.O.P. Primary Fight for Senate Begins in Montana, a Top Battleground". The New York Times. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
60. Tully-McManus, Katherine; Mutnick, Ally (August 17, 2023). "Matt Rosendale nabbed two big Montana statehouse endorsements ahead of a potential Senate run". www.politico.com. Politico.
61. "GOA Endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate Race | GOA" . Retrieved February 10, 2024.
62. Sagnor, Denali (November 14, 2023). "Kalispell Libertarian Sid Daoud Announces Third-Party Senate Run". Flathead Beacon . Retrieved November 16, 2023.
63. "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
64. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
65. "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
66. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
67. "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Sid Daoud (L) for Senate
• Brad Johnson (R) for Senate
• Tim Sheehy (R) for Senate
• Jon Tester (D) for Senate