2024 United States presidential election in Texas

For other elections in Texas, see 2024 Texas elections.

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Texas

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats. ^[1]

As the second most populous state, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades.

However, Texas is considered by some to be a potential swing state, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections, especially in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue. However, in the 2020 elections, predominately-Latino South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms. ^{[2] [3]} Thus, Texas is favored to remain in the GOP column in 2024. ^[4]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[5]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Texas Democratic presidential primary

The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada, marking one of two counties he would lose in the greater Democratic primaries, the other being Cimarron County in Oklahoma on the same day.

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   >90%

  Lozada

•   100%

  No votes

Texas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	831,247	84.6%	244		244
Marianne Williamson	43,667	4.5%
Armando Perez-Serrato	27,473	2.8%
Dean Phillips	26,473	2.7%
Gabriel Cornejo	17,196	1.8%
Cenk Uygur	16,100	1.6%
Frankie Lozada	11,311	1.2%
Star Locke	8,602	0.9%
Total:	982,069	100%	272		272
Source: [6]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Texas Republican presidential primary

The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   >90%

Texas Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	1,808,269	77.8%	161		161
Nikki Haley	405,472	17.5%
Uncommitted	45,568	2.0%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	36,302	1.6%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	10,582	0.5%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	8,938	0.4%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	2,964	0.1%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	2,585	0.1%
David Stuckenberg	2,339	0.1%
Total:	2,323,019	100.0%	161		161
Source: [7]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [8]	Likely R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [9]	Likely R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10]	Likely R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [11]	Lean R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [12]	Lean R	December 30, 2023
CNN [13]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)	April 4–6, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	51%	42%	7%
Marist College	March 18–21, 2024	1,117 (RV)	± 3.8%	55%	44%	1%
UT Tyler	February 18–26, 2024	1,167 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	42%	12%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	February 2–12, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	41%	11% [lower-alpha 2]
University of Houston	January 11–24, 2024	1,145 (LV)	± 2.5%	49%	40%	11%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 2]	January 13–15, 2024	1,315 (RV)	± 2.6%	49%	41%	10%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	December 1–10, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	45%	39%	16%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	45%	37%	18%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	May 8–17, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	44%	42%	14% [lower-alpha 3]
CWS Research (R)	April 17–21, 2023	677 (LV)	± 3.8%	45%	42%	13%
Emerson College	October 17–19, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	40%	13%
Emerson College	September 20–22, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	813 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	43%	9%
Blueprint Polling (D)	June 8–10, 2022	603 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	38%	17%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)	April 4–6, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	46%	37%	8%	1%	2%	6%
UT Tyler	February 18–26, 2024	1,167 (RV)	± 3.2%	41%	37%	13%	6%	3%	–
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	February 2–12, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	36%	6%	3%	2%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	February 1–3, 2024	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	35%	6%	1%	1%	13%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 2]	January 13–15, 2024	1,315 (RV)	± 2.6%	46%	36%	5%	1%	1%	11%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	December 1–10, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	42%	34%	8%	3%	2%	12%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	April 5–10, 2024	1,600 (LV)	± 2.45%	46%	34%	9%	11% [lower-alpha 4]
Marist College	March 18–21, 2024	1,117 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	36%	15%	1%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	April 5–10, 2024	1,600 (LV)	± 2.45%	48%	36%	3%	13% [lower-alpha 5]
YouGov [upper-alpha 3]	January 11–24, 2024	1,500 (RV)	± 2.5%	49%	40%	3%	8% [lower-alpha 6]

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Manchin No Labels	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
National Public Affairs	February 6–8, 2024	807 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	35%	6%	4%	3%	9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 3]	January 11–24, 2024	1,500 (RV)	± 2.5%	52%	39%	9%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	May 8–17, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	46%	39%	15% [lower-alpha 7]

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
UT Tyler	February 18–26, 2024	1,167 (RV)	± 3.2%	42%	36%	22%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	February 2–12, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 3.4%	31%	40%	29% [lower-alpha 8]
YouGov [upper-alpha 3]	January 11–24, 2024	1,500 (RV)	± 2.5%	43%	39%	18%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	December 1–10, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	33%	36%	31%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	32%	34%	34%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
UT Tyler	February 18–26, 2024	1,167 (RV)	± 3.2%	33%	36%	20%	7%	3%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	February 1–3, 2024	605 (LV)	± 4.0%	30%	32%	14%	0%	0%	24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	December 1–10, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	39%	37%	24%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	39%	38%	24%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	May 8–17, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	44%	42%	14% [lower-alpha 9]
CWS Research (R)	April 17–21, 2023	677 (LV)	± 3.8%	44%	40%	16%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	813 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	41%	15%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	May 8–17, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	40%	15% [lower-alpha 10]

Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	December 1–10, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	34%	37%	30%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	33%	36%	32%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	29%	36%	36%

Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Tim Scott Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1]	October 5–17, 2023	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	33%	34%	33%

Debate

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

The first presidential debate for the general election is scheduled to be held at Texas State University in San Marcos on September 16, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates. ^[14]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Texas
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Someone else" with 7%
3. "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
4. Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
5. Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
6. Libertarian candidate with 1%
7. "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
8. "Someone else" with 21%
9. "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
10. "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"

1. Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
2. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
3. Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.
3. "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022.
4. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
5. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
6. "Texas Democratic Primary Election Results". Texas Secretary of State . Retrieved March 28, 2024.
7. "Texas Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved April 5, 2024.
8. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
14. Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.