2016 Texas Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Texas Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Texas.svg
  2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020  
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count14775
Popular vote936,004476,547
Percentage65.19%33.19%

2016 Texas Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Results by county
Clinton:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%
     80-90%
Sanders:     40-50%     50-60%     80-90%
Tie:     50%

The 2016 Texas Democratic presidential primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Texas as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states, including their own Texas primary.

Decisive support from Latinos—particularly in the rural Rio Grande Valley—delivered a landslide win to Clinton. [1]

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results [2] March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65.2%
Bernie Sanders
33.2%
Others
1.6%
Emerson [3]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 275

February 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
6%
American Research Group [4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
YouGov/CBS News [5]

Margin of error: ± 6.9%
Sample size: 750

February 22–26, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth [6]

Margin of error: ± 5.6
Sample size: 304

February 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided
6%
Emerson College [7]

Margin of error: ± 5.4
Sample size: 328

February 21–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
4%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl [8]

Margin of error: ± 4.9
Sample size: 405

February 18–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
3%
KTVT-CBS 11 [9]

Margin of error: ± 3.8
Sample size: 675

February 22, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
10%
TEGNA/SurveyUSA [10]

Margin of error: ± 4.1
Sample size: 569

February 21–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided
7%
Austin American-Statesman [11]

Margin of error: ± 5.0
Sample size: 411

February 19–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
8%
UT/TT [12]

Margin of error: ±4.57
Sample Size: ? Dem Voters

February 12–19, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Rocky de la Fuente
2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Willie Wilson 1%
Public Policy Polling [13]

Margin of error: ± 4.3
Sample size: 514

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
University of Texas/Texas Tribune [14]

Margin of error ± 4.57%
Sample Size: 459

October 30 – November 8, 2015Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Martin O'Malley 1%Lawrence Lessig 0% No Opinion 7%
CBS-DFW [15]

Margin of error: ± 3.09%
Sample size: 1008

October 23–24, 2015Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Undecided 28%
Texas Lyceum [16]

Margin of error: ± 7.15%
Sample size: 185

September 8–21, 2015Hillary Clinton
36%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Joe Biden
15%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0% Undecided 23%
UoT/Texas Tribune [17]

Margin of error: ± 4.58%
Sample size: 457

June 5–14, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1% Undecided 12%
UoT/Texas Tribune [18]

Margin of error: ± 4.89%
Sample size: 401

February 6–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
62%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
6%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 14%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
UoT/Texas Tribune [19]

Margin of error: ± 4.73%
Sample size: 429

October 10–19, 2014Hillary Clinton
60%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 13%
UoT/Texas Tribune [20]

Margin of error: ± 4.75%
Sample size: 426

May 30 – June 8, 2014Hillary Clinton
64%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 10%
Polls in 2013
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
UoT/Texas Tribune [21]

Margin of error: ± 4.82%
Sample size: 414

October 18–29, 2013Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
7%
Elizabeth Warren
5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Don't Know 17%
UoT/Texas Tribune [22]

Margin of error: ± 5.89%
Sample size: 376

May 31 – June 9, 2013Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
11%
Andrew Cuomo
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Don't Know 19%

Results

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 75

Texas Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 936,00465.19%14721168
Bernie Sanders 476,54733.19%75075
Rocky De La Fuente 8,4290.59%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)5,3640.37%
Willie Wilson 3,2540.23%
Keith Judd 2,5690.18%
Calvis L. Hawes2,0170.14%
Star Locke1,7110.12%
Uncommitted088
Total1,435,895100%22229251
Source: [23] [24]

Results by county

County [25] Clinton %Sanders %
Anderson 99675.6%29922.7%
Andrews 7666.1%3833.0%
Angelina 1,95073.7%62223.5%
Aransas 48863.1%27235.1%
Archer 9958.9%6438.1%
Armstrong 120.0%480.0%
Atascosa 1,35571.7%47825.3%
Austin 49273.4%16524.6%
Bailey 8471.2%2924.6%
Bandera 37855.4%29443.1%
Bastrop 2,89659.0%1,95039.8%
Bland 4661.3%2432.0%
Bee 1,13375.1%32021.2%
Bell 7,43069.9%3,09029.1%
Bexar 76,53366.8%36,75032.1%
Blanco 28454.9%23244.9%
Borden 480.0%120.0%
Bosque 35362.6%19935.3%
Bowie 2,43776.7%68721.6%
Brazoria 8,00969.6%3,72128.6%
Brazos 3,56149.1%3,58949.5%
Brewster 70143.7%77148.1%
Briscoe 1657.1%1132.3%
Brooks 1,60374.4%36216.8%
Brown 31958.5%21238.9%
Burleson 46974.0%14923.5%
Burnet 87859.4%58039.3%
Caldwell 1,54366.1%74231.8%
Calhoun 70966.6%30528.6%
Callahan 8744.2%10452.8%
Cameron 20,33268.2%8,32027.9%
Camp 48476.6%13421.2%
Carson 5062.5%3037.5%
Cass 77873.1%26524.9%
Castro 12773.9%4023.3%
Chambers 68867.9%29529.1%
Cherokee 99074.2%32424.3%
Childress 5458.7%3437.0%
Clay 12062.5%6533.9%
Cochran 450.0%337.5%
Coke 2548.1%2548.1%
Coleman 7560.0%4939.2%
Collin 23,67059.1%16,17140.4%
Collingsworth 3659.0%2439.3%
Colorado 47474.8%15023.7%
Comal 3,11260.0%2,02739.1%
Comanche 22163.5%11733.6%
Concho 2769.2%1128.2%
Cooke 44956.4%33442.0%
Coryell 1,01062.7%57735.8%
Cottle 2757.5%1838.3%
Crane 6266.0%2425.5%
Crockett 26637.7%24034.0%
Crosby 13158.2%9140.4%
Culberson 35862.2%16027.8%
Dallam 2461.5%1333.3%
Dallas 113,66471.5%44,27527.8%
Dawson 9270.2%3426.0%
Deaf Smith 20067.8%8629.2%
Delta 11067.9%5131.5%
Denton 16,49150.7%15,78148.6%
Dewitt 29370.3%11327.1%
Dickens 1352.0%1144.0%
Dimmit 1,80468.9%53420.4%
Donley 3547.8%3550.7%
Duval 2,27376.2%52317.5%
Eastland 17155.7%12239.7%
Ector 1,85564.9%94233.0%
Edwards 4257.5%2737.0%
Ellis 3,72569.5%1,56829.2%
El Paso 36,14066.0%17,23431.5%
Erath 42752.5%36544.9%
Falls 55191.4%11517.0%
Fannin 50763.0%27934.7%
Fayette 58463.9%30933.8%
Fisher 22653.3%14634.4%
Floyd 6065.9%2426.4%
Foard 8034.3%11248.1%
Fort Bend 29,25974.6%9,77424.9%
Franklin 16467.8%7330.2%
Freestone 38076.8%10220.6%
Frio 1,86467.7%63022.9%
Gaines 9155.8%5936.2%
Galveston 9,46668.2%4,24130.6%
Garza 3556.5%2235.5%
Gillespie 49360.9%31438.8%
Glasscock 450.0%450.0%
Goliad 38966.4%15125.8%
Gonzales 36872.3%12925.3%
Gray 11153.9%8641.8%
Grayson 1,94052.8%1,68745.9%
Gregg 3,42378.0%91120.8%
Grimes 58473.2%20125.2%
Guadalupe 3,79363.9%2,06734.8%
Hale 31260.4%17634.0%
Hall 6364.3%2828.6%
Hamilton 11556.5%8440.2%
Hansford 2158.3%1336.1%
Hardeman 7139.4%8848.9%
Hardin 62559.5%39827.9%
Harris 157,00070.5%63,41628.5%
Harrison 2,04676.9%53019.9%
Hartley 1955.8%1936.5%
Haskell 15958.7%9234.3%
Hays 6,63446.9%7,32251.8%
Hemphill 1565.2%834.8%
Henderson 1,59371.6%59826.9%
Hidalgo 40,30869.1%15,90727.3%
Hill 71869.1%29728.6%
Hockley 18358.3%11636.9%
Hood 92862.6%52735.6%
Houston 46480.0%10117.4%
Howard 35163.5%19234.7%
Hudspeth 9939.9%9739.1%
Hunt 1,32960.5%84938.6%
Hutchinson 15355.8%10337.6%
Irion 2865.1%1432.6%
Jack 8762.1%4632.9%
Jackson 26670.6%9424.9%
Jasper 93275.7%27021.9%
Jeff Davis 14049.5%13246.6%
Jefferson 16,58976.9%4,44120.6%
Jim Hogg 1,42175.0%35618.8%
Jim Wells 4,69771.7%1,43621.9%
Johnson 2,27158.5%1,56640.4%
Jones 17363.1%9534.7%
Karnes 72653.0%47934.9%
Kaufman 2,23469.6%95129.6%
Kendall 64156.2%49143.0%
Kenedy 6359.4%3230.2%
Kent 2236.7%2846.7%
Kerr 1,02058.4%70940.6%
Kimble 2944.6%3452.3%
King 266.7%133.3%
Kinney 21160.8%10730.8%
Kleberg 1,74070.7%63025.6%
Knox 6871.6%1717.9%
Lamar 92469.3%38829.1%
Lamb 17253.3%8726.9%
Lampasas 32459.8%20738.2%
Lavaca 32268.5%13729.2%
Lee 36765.4%18032.1%
Leon 28974.3%8922.9%
Liberty 1,04371.3%38326.2%
Limestone 59279.1%14419.3%
Lipscomb 2264.7%1132.4%
Live Oak 20367.4%7324.3%
Llano 51964.8%26733.3%
Loving 325.0%541.7%
Lubbock 5,78257.3%4,13741.0%
Lynn 1458.3%1041.7%
Madison 22775.2%7023.2%
Martin 3659.0%1727.9%
Mason 8962.7%5035.2%
Matagorda 1,08874.2%34423.5%
Maverick 4,34369.5%1,50824.2%
McCulloch 9366.0%4330.5%
McLennan 5,53167.0%2,63331.9%
McMullen 480.0%120.0%
Medina 1,07369.7%43628.3%
Menard 2356.1%1639.0%
Midland 1,55663.1%85434.6%
Milam 57767.8%25229.6%
Mills 5053.2%4143.6%
Mitchell 10973.2%3322.2%
Montague 15354.3%12243.3%
Montgomery 7,54059.5%5,04039.8%
Moore 14959.9%8132.5%
Morris 48871.4%16924.7%
Motley 1368.4%631.6%
Nacogdoches 1,60065.2%82933.8%
Navarro 95772.5%33425.3%
Newton 60544.2%52940.4%
Nolan 27065.5%12229.6%
Nueces 15,67170.5%6,17527.8%
Ochiltree 3653.7%2943.3%
Oldham 1168.8%425.0%
Orange 1,85268.1%81630.0%
Palo Pinto 36159.5%23037.9%
Panola 55980.1%13018.6%
Parker 1,80854.6%1,47544.5%
Parmer 8272.6%2623.0%
Pecos 81655.4%48833.2%
Polk 86071.1%32626.9%
Potter 1,49056.5%1,09441.5%
Presidio 77657.4%44733.1%
Rains 17364.3%8933.1%
Randall 1,59151.0%1,48947.7%
Reagan 1263.2%736.8%
Real 2853.9%2344.2%
Red River 37870.1%8718.2%
Reeves 1,12859.6%56329.7%
Refugio 54964.1%25429.7%
Roberts 360.0%240.0%
Robertson 89670.9%28922.9%
Rockwall 1,72659.5%1,04636.1%
Runnels 8057.6%5539.6%
Rusk 1,11478.1%27619.4%
Sabine 19266.4%8228.4%
San Augustine 36883.1%6214.0%
San Jacinto 56272.1%19324.7%
San Patricio 2,63873.2%85023.6%
San Saba 5867.4%2731.4%
Schleicer 5864.4%2426.7%
Scurry 15461.6%8534.0%
Shackelford 1550.0%1446.7%
Shelby 34677.8%9020.2%
Sherman 1961.3%825.8%
Smith 5,77873.5%2,00325.5%
Somervell 6649.3%6750.0%
Starr 6,93677.8%1,63518.3%
Stephens 4555.6%3543.2%
Sterling 550.0%440.0%
Stonewall 5957.8%3635.3%
Sutton 2769.2%1025.6%
Swisher 14160.5%7833.5%
Tarrant 68,04465.2%35,73334.2%
Taylor 1,79454.6%1,42743.4%
Terrell 6743.5%6441.6%
Terry 14159.0%8334.7%
Throckmorton 2661.9%1638.1%
Titus 55271.3%19725.5%
Tom Green 1,65755.9%1,23941.8%
Travis 69,44648.2%74,06851.4%
Trinity 33371.8%11725.2%
Tyler 45374.3%37222.8%
Upshur 72571.7%26926.6%
Upton 9155.8%4527.6%
Uvalde 1,74463.4%76227.7%
Val Verde 1,77665.8%76528.3%
Van Zandt 72264.1%37733.5%
Victoria 2,20664.5%1,11932.7%
Walker 1,29261.3%78937.4%
Waller 1,22167.4%55930.9%
Ward 30662.2%14729.9%
Washington 78273.0%27825.9%
Webb 18,55971.9%6,17723.9%
Wharton 96176.5%22418.3%
Wheeler 3759.7%2337.1%
Wichita 1,95855.5%1,52443.2%
Wilbarger 13661.5%7533.9%
Willacy 2,08170.0%66022.2%
Williamson 16,39652.7%14,55446.7%
Wilson 1,28271.5%48126.8%
Winkler 3069.8%1125.6%
Wise 75156.2%55841.8%
Wood 66368.7%28529.5%
Yoakum 942.9%1047.6%
Young 20158.8%13238.6%
Zapata 1,97367.9%68523.6%
Zavala 1,55775.5%37318.1%
Total936,00465.2%476,54733.2%

Analysis

Clinton won the Texas primary by a landslide margin of over thirty points, thanks in large part to support from Hispanic/Latinos (whom she won by a margin of 71–29 over Bernie Sanders), African American voters (whom she won 83–15) and white women (63-35 over Sanders). [26] Clinton won all of the major cities (Fort Worth, Dallas, El Paso, San Antonio, and Houston, and Corpus Christi) except for Austin where Sanders won only narrowly.

Sanders won few counties outside of Travis County, where the University of Texas at Austin is located. He won neighboring Hays County, home to another prominent college, Texas State University in San Marcos. Sanders also managed to very narrowly edge out Clinton in Brazos County, home to College Station and Texas A&M University, by 28 votes. In all three counties mentioned above, Sanders performed worse than Barack Obama did in the 2008 Texas Democratic primary and caucuses, despite all three containing a bloc of young voters, a demographic Sanders usually performs well in.

The rest of Sanders's victories came from 11 sparsely populated counties where Republicans have performed strongly in the past several elections. His strongest performance came from the Texas Panhandle in Armstrong County, where he won 80% of the vote, 4 votes to Clinton's 1. Two counties in particular, Glasscock and Coke, had Sanders and Clinton tie. [27]

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References

  1. "Texas Latinos Back Clinton, Sanders Takes Latino Counties in Colorado". NBC News. March 2, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  2. Primary results
  3. "EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS" (PDF).
  4. "Texas Democratic Presidential Primary".
  5. "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerTexas".
  6. "TEXAS: CRUZ, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES" (PDF).
  7. "2016 Texas Republican Presidential Primary – Cruz 29%, Trump 28% (Emerson College Polling Society 2/21-2/23)" (PDF).
  8. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll" (PDF).
  9. "Cruz Increases Lead In TX Against Trump In KTVT-CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll".
  10. "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22696" (PDF).
  11. "Cruz, Clinton still lead in Texas".
  12. Ramsey, Ross. "UT/TT Poll: Clinton Still Leads in Texas, But Margin Has Narrowed, by Ross Ramsey". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 23, 2016.
  13. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  14. "Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas / Texas Tribune. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  15. "Carson Leads Trump Slightly In Texas KTVT-CBS 11 Dixie Strategies Poll". cbslocal.com.
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  17. "TX Tribune" (PDF). amazonaws.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  18. "Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  19. UoT/Texas Tribune
  20. UoT/Texas Tribune
  21. UoT/Texas Tribune
  22. UoT/Texas Tribune
  23. The Green Papers
  24. Texas Secretary of State
  25. "Historical Elections - Official Results".
  26. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  27. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".